The first four months of the 2026 Cup Series season have seemingly created a wide gap between the true contenders for the championship in the return of The Chase format and those that are just competing for a spot in the 16-driver field.
Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin are blitzing the field as we enter the summer stretch of tracks, while the likes of Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and Ty Gibbs are racing consistently enough to be potential competitors that can knock off Reddick and Hamlin by the time September comes around for the 10-race Chase.
In the latter half of the current top 16 after Sunday’s event at Pocono Raceway, there’s an established purgatory of talented drivers stuck in a funk that’s plagued their respective campaigns.
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Looking at a group that consists of Brad Keselowski, Bubba Wallace and three-time Cup Series titleholder Joey Logano, this trio seemed like surefire locks to make the field of 16. Now, all three of their spots are in limbo thanks to a string of bad luck catalyzed by their own unforced errors, and at tracks where they had a bit more control of their destiny versus what’s to come.
While it was early in the season, both Wallace and Logano were once safely inside the top 10 in points, and it was futile to consider them drivers on the outside looking in as the push to The Chase ramped up. Now in mid-June, the No. 22 Team Penske driver finds himself 18th in points, 21 points off teammate Austin Cindric for the final provisional spot in the postseason. Wallace, now 13th, owns just a 43-point buffer to the cutline.
Keselowski was ninth after Watkins Glen, and it took just four races to bottom out with four finishes of 30th or worse in the last five races as he’s now the first driver outside the top 16.
If we set Keselowski, Wallace and Logano’s numbers post-Kansas, it’s been a nightmare for the trio.
Just four top 10s combined in a seven-race stretch between Talladega and Pocono. Wallace delivered the only top five at Michigan with a third-place run.
Average finish in that stretch among the three? 24.8. Not good.
So it’s only fitting that their woes would result in a direct collision course at Pocono as the trio was caught up in a Stage 2 incident down the frontstretch that ended Keselowski’s day and parachuted Wallace and Logano to finishes outside the top 20.
And what lies ahead are current trends that don’t favor all three, and a wide array of tracks where managing points will be incredibly difficult.
Legacy Motor Club’s rise is apparent right now. Erik Jones vaulted to 15th in points with a second straight top 10.
Shane van Gisbergen, while similarly struggling like Keselowski, Wallace and Logano, could really run up the score over the next two weeks at Naval Base Coronado and Sonoma Raceway. Same goes for Michael McDowell, who may not contend with SVG for victories, but will stack the deck on points to be within striking range of the Chase bubble.
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Christopher Bell and William Byron aren’t having great seasons for their standards, but their stocks are rising despite up-and-down finishes. Chase Briscoe is only getting better and rose to 12th after Pocono. Spire Motorsports teammates Daniel Suárez and Carson Hocevar (eighth and ninth in points, respectively) may be too fast for the bubble drivers to catch up to.
However, the next stretch of the schedule offers an equal mix of optimism and result horrors that could nearly paint the picture of who will be in The Chase and who will be left pondering what went wrong.
After back-to-back road courses in California, it’s off to Chicagoland Speedway in NASCAR’s return trip for the first time since 2019. Then, it’s EchoPark Speedway for Sunday night action and pack-racing that can really cause a stir. Following EchoPark, the first points race at North Wilkesboro Speedway since 1996. The slate then culminates with the crown jewel Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, which can always be treacherous to navigate.
A lot of racing to go and still 10 races to decide the postseason fates of most of the field, but as we’ve seen how strong starts can quickly turn sour in sports (too soon, San Antonio Spurs fans?), it may already be desperation mode for Wallace, Keselowski and Logano to save their seasons.
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