With four regular-season races remaining in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season, it’s time for a check-in to see how the race for The Chase is progressing.
Reminder: The top 16 drivers in points make The Chase. There is no more win-and-in. The regular-season points leader starts The Chase with 2,100 points and second place starts with 2,075. Third place starts with 2,065 points, then drivers are separated by five-point increments through 16th place.
RELATED: Cup Series standings | Iowa weekend schedule
The Race for No. 1
| RANK | DRIVER | POINTS | POINTS TO LEADER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 886 | -- |
| 2 | Tyler Reddick | 802 | -84 |
| 3 | Ryan Blaney | 766 | -120 |
Taking a look at the top of the Cup Series standings, Denny Hamlin maintained his advantage as the provisional top Chase seed and now leads Tyler Reddick by 84 points after the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Despite dropping from the front row on the final restart at the 2.5-mile Indiana track to a fifth-place finish, Hamlin still gained 16 points on the path to potentially entering The Chase as the No. 1 seed and having the championship battle go through the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.
Meanwhile, Ryan Blaney’s hopes of being a contender for the top Chase seed took a major hit Sunday at Indianapolis. Late-race contact with John Hunter Nemechek sent the No. 12 Team Penske Ford spinning into the Turn 3 wall, leading to a 26th-place finish.
When The Chase begins, this might be the moment that not only costs Blaney $1 million in the 2026 NASCAR In-Season Challenge to Todd Gilliland, but also the No. 1 Chase seed as he sits 120 points behind Hamlin in the Cup Series standings.
The Mythical Top Six
| RANK | DRIVER | POINTS | POINTS TO LEADER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ty Gibbs | 751 | -135 |
| 5 | Carson Hocevar | 638 | -248 |
| 6 | Chase Elliott | 635 | -251 |
| 7 | Chase Briscoe | 623 | -263 |
| 8 | Kyle Larson | 617 | -269 |
After scoring 43 points at Indianapolis, Ty Gibbs became the fourth driver to clinch a spot in this year’s Chase. He joins Hamlin, Reddick and Blaney as the only drivers to earn a postseason berth with four races left in the Cup Series regular season.
One of the biggest movers in the provisional Chase grid was Carson Hocevar, who jumps two spots to fifth in the Cup Series standings. This is important, according to Racing Insights, which provided all the data here and has hypothesized that a driver’s best chance of competing for the championship is to enter The Chase in the top six in points.
With Hocevar now sitting 158 points above the cutline and in a prime postseason position, a 37th-place finish in the Brickyard 400 dropped Chase Elliott to sixth in the table, costing him 43 valuable markers to the top of the standings. Indiana native Chase Briscoe earned a strong fourth-place result at his home track; he moved up to seventh in points, knocking on the door of entering the “mythical top six.”
A downed left-rear tire and spin into the Turn 3 wall ended up costing Kyle Larson two spots in the standings as the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports driver dropped to eighth. If the defending Cup Series champion wants to get back into the top six and have a better shot at winning back-to-back titles, he will have to break out of his recent slump.
In the last four Cup Series races, Larson has three finishes of 34th or worse. Something needs to change now for the No. 5 team, or the downward slide could continue as the two-time champion faces the possibility of slipping outside the top 10 in points in the weeks ahead.
The Middle Ground
| RANK | DRIVER | POINTS | POINTS TO CUTLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chris Buescher | 613 | +133 |
| 10 | Christopher Bell | 609 | +129 |
| 11 | Daniel Suárez | 583 | +103 |
| 12 | William Byron | 568 | +88 |
| 13 | Joey Logano | 545 | +65 |
| 14 | Bubba Wallace | 540 | +60 |
The middle ground is tightening up in the closing weeks of the regular season as drivers hope to safely make The Chase and put themselves in a better position to fight for a championship. Only 29 points separate Christopher Bell in 10th place from Hocevar in fifth place, so a lot of jockeying for position could occur over the next four races.
That said, the middle ground stayed relatively quiet after Indianapolis with Chris Buescher, Bell, Daniel Suárez and William Byron maintaining their positions in ninth through 12th place, respectively. Joey Logano was the biggest mover in this section, moving up two spots and gaining 16 points against the cutline thanks to his third-place finish at Indianapolis.
Coming off a win at North Wilkesboro and following that up with another solid result at Indianapolis, look for Logano to possibly continue his hot streak in the coming weeks. The remaining regular-season tracks — Iowa Speedway, Richmond Raceway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Daytona International Speedway — are good spots for the No. 22 team to increase the 65-point margin above the cutline.
Last year’s Brickyard 400 winner Bubba Wallace did not have a good day in Indiana, losing nine points to the cutline after a disappointing 28th-place result. The 23XI Racing driver currently sits 60 points to the good before Iowa, but cannot afford to miss out on scoring valuable points in the last four weeks of the regular season if he wants to compete deep into The Chase.
The Cutline Battle
| RANK | DRIVER | POINTS | POINTS TO CUTLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shane van Gisbergen | 537 | +57 |
| 16 | Austin Cindric | 518 | +38 |
| 17 | Ryan Preece | 480 | -38 |
| 18 | Erik Jones | 474 | -44 |
| 19 | Brad Keselowski | 468 | -50 |
| 20 | Michael McDowell | 442 | -76 |
The final four weeks of the regular season will be intense for drivers slightly above The Chase cutline and those on the outside looking in. Despite a quiet and respectable 16th showing at Indianapolis, Shane van Gisbergen dropped to 15th in the Cup Series standings and maintains a 57-point advantage above the cutline. If the No. 97 Trackhouse Racing driver can stay afloat on the next four ovals, he should make The Chase, with a 94.5% probability entering Iowa.
Team Penske’s Austin Cindric remains on the bubble, 16th in points. The No. 2 Team Penske Ford driver currently sits 38 points above the cutline with an 89.3% Chase probability and hopes to hold off a late regular-season charge from the first driver out, RFK Racing’s Ryan Preece, who is 17th in the standings and needs to overcome an uninspiring 6.6% Chase probability.
The last three drivers in the cutline battle — Erik Jones (minus-44), Brad Keselowski (minus-50) and Michael McDowell (minus-76) will need to have big points-scoring days in the last four regular-season races if they want to have any shot at making the postseason.
According to Racing Insights, Jones has a 5.6% Chase probability, while Keselowski sits at 8% and McDowell brings up the rear with a 0.5% chance of advancing to the postseason.