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August 28, 2026

NASCAR Cup Series Chase

Cut to The Chase: Who’s still standing entering the regular-season finale at Daytona?

By Zach Sturniolo

NASCAR.com

Published:

4 Minute Read

After 25 races, five drivers are fighting for the final three spots inside The Chase for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

The battle will reach a fever pitch on Saturday at Daytona International Speedway in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Before the green flag waves, here is a look at the five contenders who have a chance to advance to the 16-driver contest for a 10-race journey toward their title hopes with help from Racing Insights. Three of these drivers will leave Daytona Beach with an opportunity to chase a championship; two will be left fighting for 17th place in the points standings through the end of the season.

MORE: Cup Series standings | Daytona schedule

14. Bubba Wallace

Bubba Wallace looks on after a NASCAR Cup Series race.
Zach Sturniolo | NASCAR Digital Media

Points to the cutline: +75
Points needed to clinch: 2
Best Daytona result: 2nd (three times)
Highest seed possible: 9th
Average points per race: 25.2
Most points earned in a 2026 race: 48 (EchoPark Speedway, February)

Details: In need of just two points to advance to The Chase, Bubba Wallace realistically just needs to finish 35th or better on Saturday night at Daytona, even if he doesn’t score any stage points. That’s not always so straightforward, of course: Wallace was at the forefront of a crash at Lap 27 of last year’s summer race at the “World Center of Racing” and finished 37th, only earning one point. But Wallace has a strong track record at Daytona, and those behind him would need near-perfect days to oust the No. 23 Toyota from The Chase grid. In other words, Wallace is a near-certain lock to advance.

RELATED: Wallace runner-up at New Hampshire

15. Austin Cindric

Austin Cindric, driver of the No. 2 Team Penske Ford, looks on ahead of a NASCAR Cup Series race.
James Gilbert | Getty Images

Points to the cutline: +44
Points needed to clinch: 33
Best Daytona result: 1 win (2022 Daytona 500)
Highest seed possible: 11th
Average points per race: 23.96
Most points earned in a 2026 race: 48 (Richmond Raceway)

Details: Cindric bolstered his chances of making The Chase with his best points day of the season just two weeks ago at Richmond. With a 44-point buffer to the cutline, Cindric’s spot in the 16-driver grid is fairly secure. Cindric typically keeps his No. 2 Team Penske Ford toward the front of the field on superspeedways, leading a combined 92 laps in his last five Daytona starts specifically. With such great superspeedway racers as teammates — Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney — Cindric should have help around him to bolster his odds. There is a question regarding what his team’s strategy should be — be aggressive and fight for stage points, or survive until the end and gain ground late? But either should yield a promising result for the fifth-year driver.

16. Shane van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen prepares for a NASCAR Cup Series race.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images

Points to the cutline: +31
Points needed to clinch: 45
Best Daytona result: 16th (2025 summer)
Highest seed possible: 12th
Average points per race: 23.44
Most points earned in a 2026 race: 68 (Watkins Glen)

Details: Dominant days for van Gisbergen at Watkins Glen International and Sonoma Raceway led to two fantastic victories with critical points earned, placing him into position to qualify for The Chase on points. But a shout is deserved for SVG’s improvement on ovals, which has proven dire to his current cutline predicament, including top-five runs at North Wilkesboro Speedway and Nashville Superspeedway and dual sixth-place finishes this year at EchoPark Speedway. A 31-point buffer to the cutline is decent but not totally comfortable for the No. 97 Trackhouse Racing team, particularly with two strong drafters at RFK Racing lurking behind in the standings.

17. Ryan Preece

Ryan Preece waves before a NASCAR Cup Series race.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images

Points to the cutline: -31
Points needed to clinch: Can only clinch with help
Best Daytona result: 4th (2021 summer)
Highest seed possible: 14th
Average points per race: 22.2
Most points earned in a 2026 race: 45 (Naval Base Coronado)

Details: Ryan Preece has had a summer of seemingly missed opportunities. A career short-track ace, Preece had a couple of middling performances at Iowa Speedway (20th) and Richmond Raceway (17th) that didn’t quite yield the number of points expected for the No. 60 RFK Racing team. Daytona has been hit or miss — or take-off — for Preece over the years, with seven DNFs in 13 Daytona starts. But Preece promised “a heavyweight match” to SVG for that final position following last week’s top-10 run at New Hampshire with a hearty dose of confidence planted in his right foot. The uphill climb is obvious, but it’s also doable on the unpredictable high banks of Daytona.

18. Brad Keselowski

Brad Keselowski walks before a NASCAR Cup Series race.
Sen Gardner | Getty Images

Points to the cutline: -66
Points needed to clinch: Can only clinch with help
Best Daytona result: Win (2016 summer)
Highest seed possible: 16th
Average points per race: 20.8
Most points earned in a 2026 race: 55 (Darlington)

Details: For as many laps as Keselowski has led at Daytona International Speedway (356 total), the 2012 Cup Series champion only has one win to show for it. That win came a decade ago in the summer race on the Florida high banks, but he nearly scored his first Daytona 500 victory back in February as well before placing fifth. In order to control his own destiny Saturday, Keselowski will need to win the Coke Zero Sugar 400 and score significant stage points in the process. He’s proven he can excel in must-win moments before, but erasing a 66-point deficit in one race will be a unique challenge for the RFK Racing co-owner and driver.