Racing Insights: Who will grasp Gateway glory?

For the fifth time, the NASCAR Cup Series visits World Wide Technology Raceway in Madison, Illinois on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). But this isn’t any ordinary trip to the St. Louis area.

Race No. 2 of The Chase presented by Mobil 1 is on tap, and points remain a premium. Despite a slip-up in the Southern 500, Denny Hamlin retained the points lead by 12 markers and enters Gateway as the defending winner with a pair of runner-ups in the two years prior. But a group of hungry Fords comes ready to play, especially Team Penske — which has won twice in four previous visits. And of course, the Chevrolets hope to finally stop the bleeding after a rocky summer across the board.

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WWT Raceway is an anomaly on the schedule, with long straightaways and tight, asymmetrical corners providing a unique challenge around the flat, 1.25-mile oval. With championship pressure continuing to build, the Gateway to the West could very well be the Gateway to the title if challengers leave with a strong run. See the drivers to watch as well as Racing Insights’ full projections for 240 laps in the Midwest.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

CHRISTOPHER BELL: Watch your back because that monkey finally flew off Bell’s. After a record-tying seven runner-up finishes without a win during the regular season, the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing driver scored a crown-jewel Cook Out Southern 500 victory last weekend at Darlington Raceway and suddenly sits second in points. JGR is clearly the class of the field in 2026 and Bell’s numbers are quite solid at WWT Raceway. Although he’s never finished better than seventh, he’s also never placed worse than 11th. Two years ago, the Oklahoman swept the stages and led a third of the race. With all the momentum, Bell will likely stand strong at Gateway and contend for another dub.

KYLE LARSON: Chevrolet’s pace continues to lack, but Larson goes against that grain. At the last three traditional ovals, the defending Cup champ has finished no worse than sixth, including a P5 effort and 99 laps led at Darlington. In four Gateway races, he’s placed no worse than 12th and is tied for the third-best average finish (9.5) among Chase drivers. His top five at New Hampshire last month is promising as Loudon is arguably the most comparable track.

TEAM PENSKE: All three Penske drivers are killer at Gateway — and there’s no sugarcoating it. Joey Logano won the inaugural race in 2022 and has yet to finish outside the top five at the track. He’s won two of the last seven races in 2026, too — including a 323-lap-led effort at North Wilkesboro Speedway in July. Austin Cindric won here in 2024 and has an average finish of 11th. Finally, Ryan Blaney has finished sixth or better in three of four Gateway Cup races with an average running position of eighth or better in all four. He also has victories at Phoenix Raceway and New Hampshire this season — both similar tracks. Look for Penske to bring its A-game to St. Louis.

FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR ENJOY ILLINOIS 300 (Sun., 3 p.m. ET, USA)