Racing Insights: Who will hit the jackpot in Las Vegas?

Thirty-six aces are heading to Sin City this weekend. But only one will hit the jackpot.

The NASCAR Cup Series rolls to Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday (5:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) as The Chase presented by Mobil 1 reaches the halfway mark. Once the South Point 400 is completed, just five races remain to crown the 2026 champion. Las Vegas is the second of three consecutive races at 1.5-mile circuits, and like last weekend at Kansas Speedway, it could shake up the postseason.

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But unlike the first three Chase races, Kansas wasn’t defined by chaos. Kyle Larson dominated, leading 235 laps and scoring a perfect 76-point day — the first in this points format. That elevated him 26 points ahead of Denny Hamlin for the series lead, and as evidenced by a trio of victories in Vegas, he’ll likely be a factor again on Sunday. A finish of fifth or better would give Larson five straight top fives to open the postseason, matching a feat Joey Logano accomplished in 2014.

Read on to see drivers worth monitoring over 267 laps, as well as Racing Insights’ full projections for the key Chase bout.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

DENNY HAMLIN: A Denny Hamlin victory at a 1.5-miler is seemingly a coin flip these days. The last two times the Cup Series has visited Vegas, that coin has landed on heads. The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing driver scored a key playoff victory there last fall, and backed it up again this spring with his first dub of 2026. For Hamlin to keep up with Larson, he’ll need another stellar Vegas showing. Hamlin has finished fourth or better in each of the last eight races on 1.5-mile tracks, with an average finish of 2.4. His last three Cup victories all came in succession at Nashville, Michigan and Pocono — three somewhat comparable tracks even though they all feature different sizes and characteristics. The Chase has been by no means dominant for the future Hall of Famer, but that could change this weekend as he continues pursuing his first title.

CHRISTOPHER BELL: With how well he’s historically performed at intermediates, it’s almost hard to believe that Bell hasn’t won at Las Vegas before. He led 155 laps in this race two years ago before pit strategy relegated him to runner-up, his second P2 finish in Sin City. Bell finished inside the top five in five of the last seven Las Vegas races, as well as three of the last four. Widening the scope, he’s placed inside the top 10 in nine of the last 11 1.5-mile races. Despite finishing sixth last weekend at Kansas, the Oklahoman dropped 33 points to Larson up top, now facing a 50-point deficit. A strong run for Bell could launch him back into the championship discussion.

TEAM PENSKE: All three drivers from the Roger Penske-owned organization are on here for different reasons, but the common denominator is that they need strong weekends to remain in the championship hunt. Austin Cindric is on a career heater, averaging an eighth-place finish over the last seven races and coming home second last weekend at Kansas — his first top five at a 1.5-mile track. He does, however, own a pair of P6 finishes at Las Vegas, and enters the race minus-140. Joey Logano is a machine in Sin City, winning four times — the most among active drivers — with two of them coming in 2022 and 2024 (remember the even-year thing?). However, Logano has generally struggled at 1.5-mile circuits this year with a 20.3 average finish, and is 67 points behind the lead after finishing 20th at Kansas. Finally, Ryan Blaney has had plenty of lost wages in Vegas, averaging a P30 over his last four trips here. He has just four top 10s in the last nine 1.5-mile events, and desperately needs to stop the bleeding after two DNFs in the first four Chase races. Blaney sits 91 points back of Larson.

MORE: What to Watch: Las Vegas

FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR SOUTH POINT 400 (5:30 p.m. ET, USA)