Don’t look now, but with the conclusion of the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the halfway mark of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase presented by Mobil 1 has been reached. With plenty of action already in the books — and much more in store over the final five races of the season — key questions are emerging as the postseason field jockeys for the coveted Bill France Cup.
If you want to see what insiders think about these questions, you’ve come to the right place. Welcome to “Last Call,” a new weekly article series in which a handful of NASCAR.com writers answer a hot topic from the most recent race weekend.
RELATED: Las Vegas results | Cup Series standings
With Chase Briscoe’s thrilling victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing driver remains in the title hunt, but with plenty of work still to do. Then again, fellow Indiana native Tony Stewart had plenty of work to do, too, during the 2011 Chase, with the eventual NASCAR Hall of Famer winning five of 10 postseason contests to capture the championship crown. Whether Briscoe can replicate that same success en route to title glory is this week’s top question.
Can Chase Briscoe go on a Tony Stewart title run?
Pat DeCola: Can he? Sure — but “Tony Stewart run” is probably the right level of bar he’ll need to clear if he wants the title because Briscoe doesn’t have much room left for merely strong races. “Smoke” won five of the 10 Chase races in 2011; Briscoe has only one victory in the past three months, with only five weekends left this season. The Vegas winner is 84 points back at the Chase’s halfway point, so he’s actually lost ground from where he started before Darlington, despite his seemingly scalding stint since. Thus, to make this real, he probably needs to stack another two to three, maybe four wins to be in the same ballpark as Stewart’s epic run, but Charlotte and Homestead are exactly the kind of 1.5-mile tracks where the No. 19 has shown it can do that. He also has wins at two of the three remaining tracks between them, so it’s technically possible. The past few races proved Briscoe’s 2026 ceiling is certainly championship-level; it’s just that he and the No. 19 team will need to literally be flawless from here on out to make it happen.
Dustin Albino: Sitting 84 points behind the lead, Briscoe is likely the cutoff for drivers still in championship contention. The schedule sets up favorably for the No. 19 team: He has won two of the last three races at 1.5-mile tracks and was passed late at Kansas Speedway, narrowly missing a hat trick. To match his childhood hero, Briscoe would need to win four of the next five races, a streak no driver has produced in the Next Gen car. The speed is there, though, and even two wins in the final five would vault him way up the standings. If there’s one thing The Chase has made clear, it’s the value of winning. Briscoe remains championship-eligible, but even a late surge would make a Tony Stewart-esque comeback a long shot.
Zack Albert: To Dustin’s point, replicating the type of postseason pounding that Tony Stewart assembled 15 years ago would’ve required an earlier start. As it stands now, Briscoe and Co. also need two more things — 1) help and potentially 2) gamesmanship. The first part is dependent on Kyle Larson making a dramatic fade after his bulletproof start to The Chase, plus similar drops in performance from the otherwise steady Denny Hamlin, before the No. 19 team can go on a sustained tear. Sealing the deal in Stewart-like fashion, however, would require some old-fashioned head games, the kind that “Smoke” used to rattle Carl Edwards’ composure in their 2011 showdown at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Needling the opposition might be out of character for the amiable Briscoe, but he’s shown off some solid acting skills already this year.
Zach Sturniolo: Time just isn’t on Briscoe’s side to make this run happen. As everyone else has stated, there is absolutely a pathway to Briscoe overcoming the hurdles ahead of him both on the race track and in the standings. But consider the caliber of teams ahead of him currently: two-time and defending champion Kyle Larson; perennial championship contender Denny Hamlin; Christopher Bell, who hasn’t finished lower than fifth in points in five years; and two Team Penske champions in Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney. To rely upon all five of those teams suffering critical and sustained errors across the next five weeks is an extraordinarily tall task. The No. 19 team is unquestionably capable. The level of performance is there. Will the execution be there for the next five weeks? Maybe, but he’ll need a hand from others faltering.
Cameron Richardson: The big phrases in Briscoe pulling off the run are “can he do it?” and “has to do it.” Yes, Stewart started the 2011 Chase ninth, but after winning the first two races, he was already at the top of the standings. Briscoe hasn’t stacked the points early on to make anyone believe that he can rattle off 70-plus-point days for the next five weeks. The story would be different if he hadn’t crashed at Gateway and suffered the mechanical failure that parked the No. 19 Toyota in the garage late in the Bristol Night Race. The Las Vegas victory was simply a matter of staying on his feet in a 10-round fight with the five above him rather than being in a back-and-forth tilt. Briscoe will be in the mix Sunday at Charlotte and the following weekend at Phoenix, but then there is the looming Talladega, where title contenders will have their hopes dashed through no fault of their own, and Martinsville, a track that has not favored the Hoosier in his Cup tenure. Barring some miracles, there’s just no viable trend to say Briscoe is built to stop Penske’s strongholds (Phoenix, Talladega, Martinsville) or be the top dog among his teammates at Charlotte and Homestead.