MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Denny Hamlin knows time is running out to win a NASCAR Cup Series championship. With an expiring contract at the end of the 2027 season, this is likely one of only two remaining opportunities for Hamlin to claim the Bill France Cup.
That means he will likely need a clutch performance in Sunday’s Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway (2 p.m. ET, NBC, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Hamlin enters the 500-lap race second in the standings of The Chase presented by Mobil 1, 73 points behind series leader Kyle Larson for the championship lead.
MORE: Martinsville schedule | At-track photos: Martinsville
Hamlin has had mixed results when it matters most. Hamlin earned a crucial victory in a must-win scenario at Phoenix Raceway in 2019 that propelled him into the championship fight at Homestead-Miami Speedway a week later. More recently, Hamlin dominated the championship race at Phoenix last November before pit strategy upended hopes of hoisting his potential first championship trophy. But there are also 20 years of championship battles sitting on Hamlin’s resume that Hamlin never clinched.
This year, Hamlin entered The Chase as the No. 1 seed with a 25-point advantage over No. 2 seed Ryan Blaney and 55 points ahead of No. 7 seed Kyle Larson. With two races remaining in The Chase, Hamlin sits second, nearly a full race of points behind Larson.
The good news for Hamlin is that Saturday’s qualifying session at Martinsville marked Hamlin first clutch moment of the weekend, nailing his time-trial lap to earn the Busch Light Pole Award for the sixth time this season.
“Was that good enough for you?” Hamlin joked in a press conference.
What matters is it was good enough to best the Cup Series field on Saturday, earning the top starting spot for Sunday’s feature race, one which will help clarify the championship picture ahead of the season finale Nov. 8 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
“I felt very, very good about it,” Hamlin said of his qualifying lap. “I mean, it was good enough where I did not need to see a lap time. I knew coming off Turn 4 it was enough. And so that’s a really good feeling. I’m just the jockey on the horse that made today happen.”
WATCH: Hamlin chats about pole-setting lap
The reality of the situation, though, is that the complexity of clutch moments has perplexed Hamlin at times — sometimes, they’ve resulted in greatness; sometimes, they’ve resulted in failure.
“I think that we’ve performed great in certain aspects, and I think that there’s been other times where we’ve kind of stubbed our toe when it was a big moment,” Hamlin said. “Certainly, 2010 was one that really sticks out to me where patience could have been a little bit more executed there. And there’s always been races here and there. The difficult part is you don’t know when those key moments are until afterwards, right? And because of the sport and the formats and things like that, you just never know when those key moments are. And if we come up 18 points short, it’s going to be like, ‘God … Phoenix.’ You know? But what can I do about a flat tire?
“So there’s always moments that are clutch moments, but you just don’t know until the exact moment of when that is. And I thought that last year at Phoenix, we did what we had to do. And it didn’t work out in the end, but that was what the format asked us to do, and we did it. It was just an unfortunate caution at the end that changed things, and that’s our sport. This is not a 1-v-1 situation. This is a 1-versus-36, and driver No. 18 that has nothing to do with anything in the championship can play a factor in what your result is, and so that’s what makes it a little different and hard to define exactly what a clutch moment is.”
In contrast, his business partner and longtime friend Michael Jordan was one of the most clutch athletes of all time, leading him to six NBA championships with the Chicago Bulls. What they share is an uncanny competitive nature that drives them toward their goals. But Hamlin does not worry about disappointing Jordan, his fellow 23XI Racing co-owner, if Hamlin falls short in his championship pursuits.
“No, I don’t think so because I think he knows me well enough off the race track, and he knows my competitive spirit (and) knows that I never go through a period of not putting in the work or not having the drive,” Hamlin said. “I think that no matter what the on-track results may be week in, week out, he knows that we’re the standard when it comes to preparation and work, and that’s what he was really big on.”
RELATED: Hamlin can’t catch a break in The Chase
The situation Hamlin now faces is a two-week stretch of must-be-great racing. Despite an extraordinary regular season that resulted in four wins and scoring more points than anybody during the 2026 regular season, the No. 11 team has not been extraordinary during The Chase. So has Kyle Larson come and snatched this title run away from Hamlin, or has Hamlin let it get away?
“I truthfully believe it’s a little bit of both,” Hamlin said. “I think about the what could we have done different? I know at Las Vegas, I definitely could have done something different. I was certainly disappointed with the outcome in Darlington when Michael [McDowell] got in the back of us and took us out of that one. And the flat tire [at Phoenix]. I mean, we can argue whose fault that is, but I think that it’s just one of those things. But you also can’t discredit what the 5 team has done in this eight races, right? And I think what we all underestimated is that a greatness [in] eight races can really kind of change what the narrative is on your entire season, right? I think that even when you listen to Kyle and his team pre-Chase, they would have said, ‘Yeah, I don’t know. I don’t think we’ve got what it really takes.’ And all of a sudden, eight races later, that’s just a dominating performance.
“So I think they certainly deserve all the credit and all the accolades that they’re likely going to have in the next few weeks, and certainly shouldn’t be discredited because it’s been, as you guys say, a historic run when you look at the numbers, right? And so that matters. And I don’t know. We just haven’t executed as good as what we did. I don’t know that our speed was off, except for maybe two races in this Chase from the regular season. But our execution has not been as good, and that is certainly a factor of why we’re talking about him locking up at this point.”
There is reason to be optimistic that the No. 11 team is prepared for Martinsville, a track where Hamlin is the winningest active driver with six victories. Hamlin was one spot away from a perfect 76-point day at Martinsville in the spring, falling short of the win to Chase Elliott. In order to chase Larson down for the championship lead, another day like that might be what it takes to win the championship.
And yet, the large gap to Larson may have lessened the mental stress Hamlin faces entering Sunday’s race.
“I think it’s the first weekend where there’s truthfully little pressure because I think the expectations are just so low,” Hamlin said. “I think that everyone believes that it’s kind of a foregone conclusion [that Larson will win], and I’m not saying that they’re wrong by any means. I said so myself on Monday. But it’s just, what’ve you got to lose at this point? What is the difference in second in points versus fifth? That just doesn’t really matter to me at this point in my career. So yeah, I think it’s a low-pressure, high-opportunity for the 11 team to go out there and do what we need to do this weekend.”
Winning pole for Sunday’s race added another layer of relief for Hamlin, simplifying the mission even further.
“We don’t really have to make something happen when you start up front or have track position. It’s only to just execute at that point,” Hamlin said. “Now again, you’re going to have to have the car that is capable of winning, but you’re ahead of the chains. That’s the best way I can explain it. You’re not third-and-8. You know this is a third-and-2 situation. […]
“Our job is to stay out in front of the 5 and then just make them think, ‘that’s one more point. That’s one more.’ And just maybe, this thing trickles down to a reasonable number.”