Posted on by Nick Giffen

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Racing at superspeedways is all about finding value in what seems like a mess of randomness. It’s especially difficult to handicap younger drivers who naturally have a smaller sample of races to evaluate. Natural randomness can make certain newcomers look better or worse than they actually are.

The best way to escape this problem is by looking at larger sample sizes. Over a large enough sample size, variance tends to blend out and you get closer to a driver’s natural long-term ability. This is especially true with veteran drivers. Their years of expertise (or lack thereof) lead them to a natural ability. By adjusting for the quality of their equipment, we can get a solid estimate on the distribution of their expected performance

One such veteran on a top-tier team stands out as an exceptional value for today’s YellaWood 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC) at Talladega.

NASCAR at Talladega Betting Picks

Clint Bowyer Top 10 (+175) & Top 3 (+1300)

Bowyer has 59 career Cup Series races at superspeedways, including 29 at Talladega. Despite a number of teams, car bodies, engine and aerodynamic rules changes, Bowyer has consistently been a solid performer at these tracks.

In the 59 races at all superspeedways Bowyer has 26 top-10 and seven top-three finishes.

At Talladega, the numbers are even more eye-popping. Here, he has six top-three and 13 top-10 finishes. Each of these numbers significantly exceed the implied odds given to him for today’s race.

There’s even more to dig into. Bowyer likely had little shot at a top-tier finish during his year at underfunded HScott Motorsports. He was also unlikely to win in his rookie season as he was learning and had built little trust with then-veteran drivers. Removing those eight races, Bowyer’s top-three rate improves to 13.7% at all superspeedways and 24% at Talladega. Also at Talladega, his top-10 rate increases to 48%.

Bowyer has had poor finishes in his three Talladega races under the current rules package, which could be the reason for his steep odds. However, he encountered issues in two of those three races that set him multiple laps down.

He’s a driver who has consistently shown solid results at superspeedways under all sets of circumstances. It’s likely his odds are bogged down by a small sample of recent poor finishes that have more to do with bad luck than anything else.

DraftKings‘ top-10 number (+175) and FanDuel’s top-three price (+1300) seem severely out of whack for Bowyer. I’d snap these up as low as +145 and +900.

[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

Posted on by Staff Report

Rev Racing driver Rajah Caruth, 18, earned the first Late Model win of his career Saturday night at historic Greenville-Pickens Speedway in South Carolina.

Caruth piloted his No. 6 Sunoco Toyota into Victory Lane for the first time in what has become a rapidly ascending racing career. His Rev Racing teammates Gracie Trotter — who last week became the first female winner in ARCA Racing history — and Isabella Robusto finished fourth and sixth, respectively.

Growing up a NASCAR fan, Caruth developed into an excellent sim racer on iRacing. He’s a product of the eNASCAR Ignite Series – a grassroots youth racing platform that identifies drivers without access to traditional race tracks around the world.

Caruth was selected for the NASCAR Drive for Diversity Youth Driver Development Program in 2019, the first driver from a majority iRacing background to be picked for the program. He was impressive enough to be chosen as part of the 2020 NASCAR Drive for Diversity Program, which led to him competing in the NASCAR Advance Auto Parts Weekly Series this year.

Sunoco announced earlier this year it would expand its partnership with Rev Racing and become the full-time backer on Caruth’s car.

NASCAR Cup Series driver Bubba Wallace was among those to offer his congratulations.

Posted on by Zack Albert

As the lone Ford drivers in Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series field, Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric formed a modest but mighty two-car attack that dominated the first two stages at Talladega Superspeedway.

After playing the opening two stages like a fiddle, the tune changed dramatically for the title contenders over the final portion of Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300. Briscoe’s Stewart-Haas Racing No. 98, bumped twice under serious pressure from challenger Noah Gragson in the closing laps, scraped to a 19th-place finish. Cindric, who kept his No. 22 Team Penske Mustang in close formation behind Briscoe throughout the early going, wound up 34th after a pit entry gone awry midway through the final stage.

RELATED: Official results | Xfinity Series schedule

Briscoe already had safe passage into the Round of 8, the next three-race set for the Xfinity Series playoffs, after winning last weekend’s playoff opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Among his goals for Saturday was to help Cindric, linked to him by bonds of manufacturer and friendship, gain ground in his own postseason quest.

The plan went swimmingly early, with Briscoe and Cindric sticking to the game plan and finishing 1-2 at each of the two stage breaks. That added two playoff points to Briscoe’s tally and gave Cindric a leg up in the standings with 18 stage points added to his cushion.

Cindric inadvertently broke up their 1-2 punch when his No. 22 skittered out of control off Turn 4 in a failed pit-stop approach, nosing into the inside retaining wall and ending his day. He completed just 75 of the 113 laps but still exited Talladega ranked second in the playoff standings thanks to his stage-points bonanza.

“It looked like the whole pack was going to try to stop there and I felt like that was chaos, especially with how far back in the pack we were,” Cindric said of the mid-stage stack-up. “I just got smoked from behind. I had no chance of making it to pit road. It is really unfortunate. Obviously we hit the wall a ton. …

“We ran up front all day. Unfortunately, circumstances kept me and the 98 from being up front with the way the slower cars stayed out. The way it worked out we went straight to the back and didn’t even have a chance. I can’t even say that we put ourselves back there. It really sucks but it is part of this type of racing. We were hoping to get ourselves locked into the next round today but we will have to go fight for it next week.”

Cindric’s sudden exit left Briscoe to go it alone for the Ford camp down the stretch, and he nearly made his solo charge for the checkers work once the race ticked down to an every-man-for-himself scenario. Briscoe started from the pole and led a race-best 73 laps, but his aggressive blocking up front led to a pair of pushes from Gragson’s No. 9 JR Motorsports Chevy that shuffled him out of line at the end, and a scrub of the outside retaining wall on the next-to-last lap ultimately slowed his progress.

“Yeah, at the end you are doing everything you can to protect the runs and he is doing everything he can to make moves,” Briscoe said. “It is just part of racing here. It was exciting, at least on my end. I about wrecked two or three times trying to block. It was cool. … To win two stages, that is huge going into the next round. (The finish) obviously doesn’t tell the whole picture but that is part of racing here and we will go to the Roval next week and have some fun.”

Posted on by Staff Report

The No. 1 JR Motorsports Chevrolet that Michael Annett drove to an apparent runner-up finish in Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Talladega Superspeedway has been disqualified after an infraction found in post-race inspection.

RELATED: Official race results | Haley prevails

According to NASCAR officials, the No. 1 Chevy failed to meet the minimum heights requirement, rolling through inspection too low in the left front after Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300.

Annett was moved to last place in the official finishing order for Saturday’s 300-miler. The penalty dropped him from ninth in the playoff standings to last among the 12 title-eligible drivers, pushing his deficit from three points to 38 below the provisional cut-off line for advancement.

The Xfinity Series playoff field will be whittled from 12 drivers to eight after next Saturday’s Round of 12 finale (3:30 p.m. ET on NBC/NBC Sports App, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.

No other violations were found in inspection after Saturday’s race.

Posted on by Reid Spencer

Justin Haley led two laps in Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300, but one of them was the one that counted.

Grabbing the lead on Lap 112 of 113, Haley earned a spot in the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs with the victory in the second Round of 12 race, his third of the season, the third of his career and his third straight in an Xfinity superspeedway event, a streak matched only by the late Dale Earnhardt and Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Haley won the race under caution, thanks to a multicar wreck on the final lap. The victory was the fourth for Kaulig Racing in the last five superspeedway contests.

Haley finished .234 seconds ahead of Michael Annett, with Ryan Sieg trailing by .595 seconds in third. Annett, however, was disqualified after post-race inspection for a ride-height violation. His No. 1 Chevrolet was too low in the left front. The disqualification elevated Sieg to second place.

RELATED: Official results | JRM No. 1 Chevy disqualified

In preserving his streak on the big tracks (Talladega and Daytona International Speedway), Haley had to overcome a penalty for pitting too soon in the wake of a Lap 76 wreck, with pit road closing after he had committed to enter.

“We had that penalty there and we struggled to get back — just bunny-hopping,” Haley said. “Thankfully, Kevin Hamlin, my spotter, was able to guide me through the bunny-hops and be able to go from the bottom (lane). We were so far back with 10 to go. Matt Kaulig (team owner), we love you. Three in a row. I guess I told you earlier I wasn’t saying it’s luck, but three in a row is pretty hard to do on luck. Just super thankful. This is such a blessing.”

Xfinity Series leader Chase Briscoe dominated the race almost to the finish, leading 73 laps and winning the first two stages, but his attempt to block eventual third-place finisher Noah Gragson went awry with two laps left. An eight-time winner this season, Briscoe brushed the outside wall and fell back to an eventual 19th-place finish, as Haley charged into the lead.

“Yeah, at the end, you’re doing everything you can to protect the runs, and he’s doing everything he can to make moves,” Briscoe said. “It’s just part of racing here. It was exciting, at least on my end. I about wrecked two or three times trying to block.

“It was cool. (Gragson) had talked to Dale (Earnhardt Jr.) about how to run this place, and I had talked to Dale about how to run this place, and it was weird, because I knew what he was trying to do every time so I was trying to protect it.”

It didn’t help that Briscoe had lost his drafting partner, fellow Ford driver Austin Cindric, who slammed into the inside wall off Turn 4 as a pack of cars was attempting to enter pit road on Lap 76. That left Briscoe in a difficult position, trying to win the race as the only Ford driver on the track.

“It looked like the whole pack was going to try to stop there, and I felt like that was chaos, especially with how far back in the pack we were,” Cindric said of the wreck that eliminated him in 34th place. “I just got smoked from behind. I had no chance of making it to pit road. It’s really unfortunate. Obviously, we hit the wall a ton.”

MORE: Strong showings sour for Briscoe, Cindric

Neither of the Ford drivers was devastated by the ill fortune. Briscoe already had secured his ticket into the Round of 8 with last weekend’s victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Cindric, a road-course ace, likewise is in a comfortable position heading to next Saturday’s Round of 12 elimination race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval (3:30 p.m. ET on NBC/NBC Sports App, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Second in the standings, the driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford holds a 46-point edge over ninth-place Annett. Gragson also has a nice cushion — 43 points above the cut line. Four drivers will be eliminated from postseason contention after Saturday’s Roval event.

A victim of the last-lap crash, Harrison Burton, fell seven points behind eighth-place Ross Chastain in the battle for one of the final spots in the Round of 8. Chastain recovered to finish sixth after clobbering the outside wall when Burton turned his No. 10 Chevrolet sideways in a chain-reaction wreck as the cars approached the start/finish line for a restart on Lap 47.

Calamity found Joe Gibbs Racing driver Riley Herbst on Lap 42, when contact from the No. 61 of Austin Hill sent him sliding into the inside wall off Turn 4. Now 11th in the standings, two points ahead of Annett, Herbst either must win at the Roval or leap-frog above three other drivers by erasing a 36-point deficit.

“It just sucks when a Truck Series guy comes in here to have fun,” Herbst said. “I’m really good friends with Austin, so I just hate to see that. If I went into the Truck Series and wrecked his playoff hopes, he would be upset with me. I’m a little upset. We’re not out of it yet. It’s going to be tough at the Roval, but we’ll see what we will have with the Monster Energy Supra.”

Posted on by Chase Wilhelm

While one Kyle Busch Motorsports driver had reason to celebrate, another saw his NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series championship hopes dashed.

Raphael Lessard edged out Trevor Bayne for his first career victory on the final lap as the caution flag flew in Saturday’s Chevrolet Silverado 250 at Talladega Superspeedway, the Round of 10 elimination race. But it was No. 18 KBM Toyota driver Christian Eckes who was caught up in the last-lap crash, failing to advance into the Round of 8 as a result.

RELATED: Race results

Eckes was in position throughout the 94-lap race to earn a strong finish to advance, especially after fellow playoff driver Zane Smith was taken out early after a big crash on Lap 13. But along with a pit-road penalty, Eckes was shuffled toward the back of the pack in the closing laps after being shoved to the apron of the race track in Turn 1. The rookie driver was working his way back up after the final two-lap sprint to the finish before it all came crashing down.

“I just came up short,” Eckes said. “Sucks that we are not going to be able to move on to round two, but in the same aspect my Safelite Toyota team tried hard. We did all we could. I’m sure we made some mistakes on the day like the pit road penalties and some other things, but we will move on to the last four races and give the playoff guys hell.”

RELATED: Todd Gilliland’s engine, playoff hopes expire | Zane Smith crashes early at Talladega

Eckes, who came into Talladega eighth in the standings with a six-point cushion, along with Front Row Motorsports driver Todd Gilliland, were the two drivers left on the outside of the cutline when the race concluded.

Now with four races remaining in the 2020 season, winning his first career race in his rookie season is the lone goal that remains.

“We don’t have any championship hopes on the line, unfortunately, anymore, but in the same aspect, there is still plenty of team goals to achieve,” Eckes said. “We will do the best we can. I wish we did a little bit better in the first two races of this round to separate us, but that’s 2020 and we will move on to the next four.”

Posted on by Reid Spencer

In a wild two-lap shootout that ended prematurely with a multicar wreck near the entrance to Turn 3, 19-year-old Canadian Raphael Lessard earned his first NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series victory in Saturday’s Chevrolet Silverado 250 at Talladega Superspeedway.

RELATED: Race results

Lessard had nosed ahead of runner-up Trevor Bayne while Stewart Friesen’s Chevrolet spun into the outside backstretch wall on the final lap, causing the caution that froze the field. The yellow made a winner of Lessard, but what was euphoria for one Kyle Busch Motorsports driver was heartbreak for another.

With playoff spots in the elimination race still on the line for the final restart on Lap 93 of 94 at the 2.66-mile superspeedway, Christian Eckes was a victim of the final wreck that also left playoff driver Austin Hill hustling out of his No. 16 Toyota, which sat on the apron with flames shooting from underneath the hood.

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With the Round of 10 completed, Eckes was eliminated by eight points, as Tyler Ankrum, another victim of the last-lap wreck, advanced to the Round of 8 in the playoffs by that margin. Hill already had secured a spot in the next round with last weekend’s win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Those two drivers are joined by Sheldon Creed (12th Saturday), Ben Rhodes (fourth), Brett Moffitt (seventh), Matt Crafton (eighth), Grant Enfinger (13th) and Zane Smith (33rd). Crafton took the green flag on the final restart below the playoff cutline but avoided the final wreck to finish the day fifth in the playoff standings.

The big winner was still Lessard, who did not qualify for the playoff but earned a significant consolation prize on Saturday, with a strong push from Rhodes.

“Oh, my gosh, that was awesome,” said Lessard, who moved to Mooresville, N.C., from Quebec this year. “First of all, I just want to thank everyone at home, my team — Kyle Busch Motorsports. I can’t believe it. It’s just my second superspeedway race.

“To get my first Truck Series win here is amazing. I don’t know who was behind me, but he gave me a heck of a push. I can’t thank him enough. He pushed me as hard as he could, and I was just along for the ride. The caution came out at the right time. I’m so happy. I got to do a burnout after the win. I’m hoping I can do some more.”

Smith avoided elimination despite being swept up in an 11-car wreck on Lap 13. He spent the rest of the race waiting anxiously to learn whether he would advance to the Round of 8.

“It sucks, for sure,” Smith said after the accident. “They just kept getting bunched up. My teammate (Chase Purdy) got all out of shape, and I was just kind of an innocent bystander.”

Also exiting the playoffs was Todd Gilliland, whose No. 38 Front Row Motorsports Ford retired from the race after 47 laps because of engine issues. Gilliland had finished second in Stage 1 (won by Hill) and seventh in Stage 2 (won by Derek Kraus) before the mechanical failure.

Chandler Smith ran third, giving non-playoff drivers the top three positions. Rhodes was fourth, followed by Codie Rohrbaugh, Jordan Anderson, Moffitt, Crafton, Kaz Grala and Kraus.

RELATED: Two Gander Trucks teams issued L1 penalties

The Round of 8 for the Gander Trucks kicks off in two weeks with the Clean Harbors 200 at Kansas Speedway on Oct. 17 (4 p.m. ET on FS1, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

NOTE: The No. 4 Kyle Busch Motorsports Toyota of race winner Raphael Lessard passed NASCAR’s post-race inspection. There were no other issues.

Contributing: Staff reports

Posted on by Staff Report

Two Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series teams were issued L1 penalties ahead of Saturday’s Chevrolet Silverado 250 at Talladega Superspeedway (1 p.m. ET on FS1, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

RELATED: Truck Series standings | Talladega schedule

The No. 52 Halmar Friesen Racing Toyota driven by Stewart Friesen and the No. 9 CR7 Motorsports Chevrolet driven by Codie Rohrbaugh were penalized for violating Section 20.4.12.c Bed Cover. (Note: Vent holes at the truck bed top must be configured for air intake only.)

As a result, the Nos. 52 and 9 trucks were penalized 20 driver and 20 owner points, and the crew chiefs (Trip Bruce III for the No. 52 and Doug George for the No. 9) were suspended for today’s race. Jon Leonard and Mark Huff will serve as crew chiefs for the No. 52 and No. 9 teams, respectively, at Talladega.

Before the penalties, Friesen was 14th in points and Rohrbaugh was 21st. The penalty will drop each back a spot to 15th and 22nd, respectively, going into Saturday’s race.

Posted on by Reid Spencer

Kaulig Racing has dominated the superspeedways in the NASCAR Xfinity Series of late.

For Ross Chastain, that trend needs to continue in Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300 (4:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

RELATED: Latest Xfinity Series news | Talladega Superspeedway schedule

Chastain finished on the lead lap in last Saturday’s Xfinity Series Playoff opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. That’s about the only good thing that can be said about his effort. Chastain came home 16th, last among the 12 playoff drivers and dropped to ninth in the standings, two points below the current cutline for the Round of 8.

But where other drivers might approach a Talladega event with a sense of dread, Chastain sees racing at the 2.66-mile track as an opportunity. In the first race at Talladega this season, he finished second to Kaulig Racing teammate Justin Haley. At Daytona International Speedway in August, Chastain wrecked part-time AJ Allmendinger as they ran 1-2 in the final corner to hand Haley another win.

The bottom line, though, is the Kaulig Chevrolets, powered by Earnhardt Childress Racing engines, have been the class of the field at the superspeedways this year, and that bodes well for Chastain’s chances.

“Kaulig Racing and ECR engines are incredible at these superspeedways,” Chastain says. “They let AJ Allmendinger, Justin Haley and myself make the aggressive moves that we want and that we need to make to try to go win this race.

“We’re below the cutline behind our competition right now. It’s not where we want to be. I made some pretty big mistakes behind the wheel and got in the fence early at Las Vegas (Motor Speedway). It’s not how I need to be performing in these playoffs, so lesson learned there. We will try to go to Talladega to just do what we normally do, go control this race and try to win.”

Thanks to last Saturday’s victory in Las Vegas — his eighth of the season — Chase Briscoe is the only driver locked into the Round of 8 in the playoffs. Everyone else will be scrambling for position in one of the most unpredictable races of the season.

Posted on by Nascar

Name: Jessica
Current City: Hardyville, Kentucky
Member Since: 2015 

Getting to KNOW JESSICA:
​
Q: How did you first become interested in NASCAR?
“My stepdad was a NASCAR fan and a huge Dale Earnhardt fan. I started watching it with him when I was younger, and I’ve been hooked on it ever since.”

Q: What is your favorite part about NASCAR?
“I like watching and attending races, but it’s something that me and my family enjoy doing together. We even plan family vacations around NASCAR races.”

Q: What is your favorite NASCAR memory?
“Watching Dale Earnhardt Jr win at Daytona in July 2001. By far my favorite race. Also, going to the NASCAR Hall of Fame back in October to see Hendrick Motorsports unveil the new 2018 cars. We got to meet all of them – Dale Jr, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Bill Elliott, Alex Bowman, William Byron and my favorite Chase Elliott. I was lucky enough to get their autographs and even got my picture taken with Chase!”

Q: Do you have a favorite in any of the following categories?

Driver: “Chase Elliott”

Track: “Charlotte Motor Speedway.”

OEM: “Chevy.”

Sponsors: “Chase Elliott is my favorite….so whoever is sponsoring him! (Hooters, Mountain Dew, Napa)”

Q: What are some of your hobbies?
“Travel, shop, watch sports.”

​FROM ALL OF US AT NASCAR, WE THANK JESSICA FOR HER CONTINUED SUPPORT AND LOOK FORWARD TO HEARING FROM HER IN 2020!

Look for Jessica on the Official NASCAR Fan Council page on NASCAR.COM.