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Las Vegas is the city most known for trying to win big on a long shot. Unfortunately, that hasn’t come true for race winners at its NASCAR Cup Series events with favorites taking down every race in the Gen-6 era.

However, we can still find value on long-shot winners. Instead of betting them to win, we can bet on these drivers to finish near the front. There are two excellent value bets among these drivers. I’ve also thrown in a driver to fade, and a head-to-head prop to round out a deep betting card.

With the race in Sin City (7 p.m. ET, NBCSN), there are usually plenty of props to go around.

NASCAR at Las Vegas Betting Picks

Kurt Busch Top 10 (+115), Top 5 (+500)

Kurt Busch silently flies under the radar at these 1.5-mile tracks as a model of consistency. His average green-flag speed is between sixth and 11th at all six races when you remove drivers who had major incidents.

That has resulted in five finishes inside the top 10 in six races, an 83% success rate. He also has two fifth-place finishes — one each at Charlotte and Kentucky — for a 33% top-five rate.

Busch has been the seventh-fastest driver over the last three 1.5-mile races. He also performed well at Atlanta, a high-tire-wear, 1.5-mile track. This is another minor factor in his favor should the new right-side tire with more grip result in more wear.

Based off his yearlong speed, he should be even money, or slightly favored to finish in the top 10. That means any line where he’s a dog, like this one at DraftKings is good value. I also like his top-five odds down to +400.

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Chris Buescher Top 10 (+650)

This line is out of sync with Buescher’s speed at 1.5-mile tracks and his overall performance in 2020. Buescher’s top-10 odds are 24th-best among all drivers. However, by all metrics he has been a top-20 driver or better.

He currently sits 20th in the point standings. If we narrow our focus down to low-wear 1.5-mile tracks, Buescher has averaged the 15th-fastest green-flag speed.

His speed at these tracks has improved as the year has progressed. He’s moved from an average speed of 19th over the first three races to 11th over the three most recent races. That fits a trend where Ford drivers have six of the top nine improvements from the first to the last three 1.5-mile tracks.

Buescher posted the second-fastest speed at Texas, while running the whole race, and pipped a 10th-place finish at the first Charlotte race. Traditionally, low-wear 1.5-mile tracks have produced some of his best finishes in his career. Grab this number at FanDuel before it moves down closer to +500. That’s the limit of where I’d bet this prop.

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Chris Buescher (-114) over Bubba Wallace

I’m going to stay on the Buescher train for a moment. DraftKings has this head-to-head prop as a -114 bet for both drivers. However, I can’t see these two as an equal matchup.

Buescher has finished ahead of Wallace in average green flag speed in all six low-wear 1.5-mile races this year. Yes, Buescher only leads the head-to-head 4-2, but that’s more a product of randomness. Wallace beat Buescher at the first Vegas race thanks to a late caution that shook up the field. Buescher also had a setback at Texas when a part broke on a fueling can under green after running in the top 10 for more than half the race.

Buescher should be a heavy favorite here.

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Chase Elliott finishes outside Top 5 (-167)

DraftKings offers a yes/no prop for top-five finishes, and this is one where we can take advantage of an interesting trend in the 2020 NASCAR season.

The Hendrick Motorsports cars have been four of the eight worst cars in terms of speed differential from the first half to the second half of the season at 1.5-mile tracks. Three of the other four are also Chevy drivers.

William Byron has seen the worst drop, moving from an average green-flag speed of 2.3 in the first three to 15.5 in the latter three (his DNF at Texas was removed). Elliott fares third worst among all drivers, dropping from an average speed of 3.0 to 11.0 when drivers who experienced major incidents are removed, then all remaining drivers re-ranked.

Between the four Hendrick cars, they had 10 out of a possible 12 top-10 speeds in the first three races, including eight top-five speeds. In the latter three, they’ve managed this feat only three times. That includes only one top-five speed — Jimmie Johnson at Kentucky.

If we include the 2-mile track at Michigan, Hendrick motorsports is 0 for its last 20 in top-five finishes at low-wear, high-speed tracks. The Chevy drop off is real. Chase Elliott should not be expected to finish top five.

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Ryan Sieg’s family-run team may carry an underdog label in its efforts to compete against teams with Cup Series-level backing in the NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs. In Saturday’s postseason opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Sieg and Co. didn’t look the part.

RELATED: Race results | Las Vegas weekend schedule

With a fresh RSS Racing No. 39 Chevrolet with power and performance from the Richard Childress Racing stables, Sieg rallied from a pit-stop miscue for an impressive fifth-place finish in Saturday’s Alsco 300. Sieg entered the race eight points below the playoffs’ cut-off, but moved up two spots in the standings to seventh, with a nine-point buffer ahead of the provisional elimination line.

“It’s huge for this CMR team and the guys did an awesome job all night,” Sieg said. “Just the driver did one little mess-up, but we were great getting back to where we were running. I was trying to get something to drink, so my helmet hose fell off (at the) end of Stage 1, so I was trying to get something to drink under that green flag and just kind of missed my stopping points on pit road. Just kind of screwed me up a little bit, but we got it back.”

The minor blunder Sieg referenced was an overshoot of his pit stall during the final green-flag cycle of pit stops in the final stage. The 33-year-old Georgia racer skidded to a stop past the front border of his pit box and lost valuable track position putting the No. 39 into reverse before his crew could service the car.

But his fifth top-five result of the season was a testament to the team’s pesky nature and his strength at Las Vegas, a venue that produced a third-place effort for him back in February. This time around, Sieg led three laps and again raced among the front-runners, a presence that didn’t escape the notice of eventual winner Chase Briscoe.

“I think Ryan is super fast here,” Briscoe said after his eighth win of the Xfinity Series season. “You go back to the first race this year and he was honestly probably the best race car and just got shuffled at the end. They have a ton of speed here. It is really cool to see those guys running good. For them, the start of the playoffs, I love watching the guys that don’t have the same funding as the big teams run good, and it is awesome to see Ryan run that well. He is a really good race car driver and it was cool to see him up front. He was definitely fast for sure.”

Sieg’s reversal in his points positioning stemmed from convincing finishes at each stage break. Finishes of third in Stage 1 and fourth in Stage 2 added 15 points to his total; only Briscoe (20 points) and runner-up Noah Gragson (16 points) accumulated more with their stage finishes.

The promising start bodes well for Sieg with a pair of wild-card events to close out the opening Round of 12, with Talladega Superspeedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway’s Roval looming.

“We’re pretty pumped to get there and hopefully get that win or at least keep ourselves on the positive side of things, and just can’t wait to get to the next two,” Sieg said. “It’s been a fun first race already.”

Chase Briscoe began his 2020 NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoff run at Las Vegas Motor Speedway Saturday night just as he has competed so much of the regular season – out front.

Briscoe led a dominating and career-high 164 of the 200 laps, and swept both stage victories in the Alsco 300 playoff opener en route to his series-best eighth victory of the season. He joins NASCAR legends Sam Ard and Jack Ingram as the only drivers to amass eight wins in the opening 27 races of an Xfinity Series season.

RELATED: Race results | Las Vegas weekend schedule

Briscoe’s No. 98 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford beat Las Vegas native Noah Gragson’s No. 9 JR Motorsports Chevy by a healthy 1.370 seconds – with Briscoe forced to hold off the field on a late, furious restart with 10 laps remaining.

“Just didn’t have enough for the 98 (Briscoe), a lot of race cars out here and one space shuttle,” Gragson said of Briscoe.

The victory earns the 25-year-old Indiana-native Briscoe an automatic bid into the second round of the playoffs with two races – Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte Roval – still remaining in the opening round. It’s the first time in his two seasons at the Xfinity level that Briscoe has swept both stage victories en route to a race win.

Daniel Hemric finished third, one of only two non-playoff drivers among the top 10 at Vegas. Playoff competitors Justin Allgaier and Ryan Sieg rounded out the top five. Regular season champion Austin Cindric was sixth, followed by Michael Annett, Anthony Alfredo (the other non-playoff driver in the top 10), Harrison Burton and Justin Haley.

Playoff drivers Brandon Jones and Riley Herbst finished 11th and 12th. Brandon Brown and Ross Chastain finished 15th and 16th – Chastain’s 15 laps led second to Briscoe’s effort.

While restarts were dramatic as drivers made daring moves to challenge Briscoe and negotiate their places, Briscoe held his place out front. He led by more than four seconds with 25 laps remaining and had increased that advantage to more than six seconds with 20 laps left when he radioed to his crew that he felt a small vibration. He was reminded of his healthy lead and reassured it was his race to manage – that all was OK. And indeed it was for Briscoe.

“First off, incredible car by everybody at Stewart-Haas and that made my job way too easy, honestly,” Briscoe said. “We’ve had a lot of wins this year, but this was by far our most dominant car. I’m so glad I can sleep a little bit easer this week going into Talladega and the (Charlotte) Roval and just enjoy.”

“I knew this team is fully capable of achieving that and even more. I just can’t say thank you enough to (team owners) Gene Haas and Tony Stewart and everybody that lets me drive these race cars.

“It’s been an unbelievable season and we’ve still got six more wins to try and gain a championship — so that’s what we’ll try to do.”

The outcome gives Briscoe the automatic ticket to Round 2 and leaves Cindric leading the standings, 17 points ahead of Gragson. Allgaier is next, 25 points behind Cindric. Sieg and Burton hold the seventh and eighth spots in the standings with Chastain two points behind Burton for the final transfer position for the Round of 8.

Annett is 10th in points, 10 points out of the final position, while Herbst is 14 points back and Brown is 20 points back heading into next Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300 at Talladega Superspeedway (4:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Post-race inspection notes: The Nos. 10 (Chastain), 18 (Herbst), 20 (Burton) and 22 (Cindric) each had one lug nut not safe and secure. The fines assessed to those teams’ crew chiefs will be on the penalty report that is typically released on the Tuesday following a race weekend.

Unfortunately for Sheldon Creed, Friday night’s NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoors Trucks Series Playoff race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway proved the fastest truck doesn’t always end up in Victory Lane.

Creed swept the first two stages and led a race-high 89 of the 134-lap World of Westgate 200 at the 1.5-mile Nevada oval, but the final 39 laps proved to be his kryptonite after efforts to battle race winner Austin Hill fell short.

“My race truck I feel was so dominating, to not win with it, it hurts,” Creed said after the race. “Then again, hats off to my guys. They built an incredible truck tonight. That was one of the best race trucks I’ve ever had. I could and I could go anywhere with it.”

RELATED: Race results | Playoff standings after Las Vegas

Hill led the final 39 circuits to earn his second race win of the 2020 season and advance to the Round of 8 of the postseason, while Creed, a three-time winner, had to settle for his first second-place finish of the year.

Creed tried to get close enough to Hill in the closing laps to potentially make a run. The No. 2 GMS Racing driver could see Hill’s No. 16 Hattori Racing Toyota getting freer in the corners, but he couldn’t get close enough to take the air off Hill’s rear bumper to take advantage.

“Just frustrating, honestly,” Creed said. “Just a way faster truck than him (Hill). Probably showed my hand too early there running the middle of (turns) three and four. I realized how fast that was and just kept going up and that was better and better. I don’t know if it was just getting on clean asphalt or getting away from the rubber, just had more grip, which made it a lot of fun. Just couldn’t do anything.”

Creed slid into the outside wall in Turn 1 with 11 laps remaining to seal his fate, but he wasn’t going to concede the victory until the checkered flag fell.

“I had hope still, I mean I don’t give up until the end,” Creed said. “I could see him kind of getting free, I was just hoping he was going to get freer as we ran. … I know if I could get next to him, I had a good shot at clearing him. That was the hope there, but when he’s blocking the air like that, there’s not much you can do.”

Creed has a 52-point cushion over ninth-place driver Ben Rhodes in the points standings heading into next Saturday’s Round of 10 elimination race at Talladega Superspeedway (1 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). But he remains optimistic in the team’s ability to win there, as well as Kansas Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway — tracks coming up in the Round of 8.

“I mean that hurts, but then again confident going into Talladega. Confident going into Texas and Kansas with our mile-and-a-half program. Hopefully, we can get a win there.”

STAFFORD, Conn. — The reset has done Ron Silk good.

Since takin ga race off, the Nowalk, Connecticut, driver has a win, a second and a third in three races. Saturday afternoon, the former NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour champion set the pace in practice at Stafford Motor Speedway for the evening’s NAPA Auto Parts 150.

Silk’s No. 85 Stuart’s Automotive Chevrolet had a lap of 18.760 seconds (95.949 mph) around the half-mile.

RELATED: Complete practice results

Jon McKennedy was second quick at 18.785 (95.821), followed by Doug Coby at 18.786 (95.816).

Chase Dowling and Matt Swanson rounded out the top five.

Eric Goodale was sixth, followed by Timmy Solomito, Justin Bonsignore, Craig Lutz and Tyler Rypkema.

Bonsignore leads Coby by 27 and McKennedy by 39 heading into the penultimate race of the season. Mayhew Tools Dominator Pole Award qualifying is slated for 4 p.m., and the NAPA Auto Parts 150 is at 6 p.m. and will be streamed live on TrackPass on NBC Gold.

STAFFORD, Conn. — Eric Goodale’s gone to Victory Lane before at Stafford Motor Speedway, and he’ll have a good starting spot if he wants a return trip Saturday.

The 34-yer-old Long Island driver earned his third career Mayhew Tools Dominator Pole Award in qualifying for the NAPA Auto Parts 150.

Goodale turned a lap of 18.779 (95.852) around the half-mile in his No. 58 GAF Roofing Chevrolet. Goodale won the Fall Final at Stafford in 2017, one of three career NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour wins.

RELATED: Qualifying Results | Eric Goodale Career Stats

Ron Silk, who was fastest in practice, qualified at 18.836 (95.562), followed by Doug Coby at 18.903 (95.223).

NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour championship points leader Justin Bonsignore qualified fourth and Anthony Nocella fifth.

Jon McKennedy, Chase Dowling, Max McLauglin, Dave Sapienza and Craig Lutz completed the top 10.

The NAPA Auto Parts 150 will take the green at 6 p.m., and is streamed live on TrackPass on NBC Gold.

STAFFORD, Conn. — Ron Silk continues his resurgent second half of 2020.

The 37-year-old Norwalk, Connecticut, driver picked up his second win in his last three races with a dominant performance in the NAPA Auto Parts 150 Saturday night at Stafford Motor Speedway.

It was the the 15th career win for the 2011 NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour champion.

RELATED: NAPA Auto Parts 150 Results | Ron Silk Career Wins

Silk started the season with two finishes 10th or worse in the first three events before the No. 85 Stuart’s Automotive Chevrolet team elected to take the fourth race of the season off.

Since returning, Silk has a pair of wins, a second and a third in a four race stretch.

Silk led a race-high 79 laps, including the final 27 after taking the lead from Chase Dowling on the final restart of the night.

Doug Coby finished second, one spot ahead of NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour championship points leader Justin Bonsignore.

Bonsignore leads Coby by 27 points heading in the season finale in two weeks.

Max McLauglin was fourth and Dowling fifth.

Jon McKennedy finished sixth, followed by Ronnie Williams, Chuck Hossfeld, Matt Swanson and Tyler Rypkema.

Earlier in the day, Eric Goodale won the Mayhew Tools Dominator Pole Award but was involved in a Lap 117 accident and finished 22nd.

The NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour will finish the season with the World Series of Speedway Racing 150 at Connecticut’s Thompson Speedway Motorsports Park on Sunday, Oct. 11. The race will be streamed live on TrackPass on NBC Gold.

Ron Silk, driver of the #85 Stuart

Austin Hill rebounded Friday night, using a great final restart to earn the playoff win in the World of Westgate 200 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Hill, who started 11th, reminded his NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series competitors there’s a reason he won the regular-season title.

Hill took the lead for good on a restart with 39 laps remaining after jumping out ahead of the night’s most dominant driver Sheldon Creed. Creed led a race-best 89 of the 134 laps but ultimately finished runner-up by .546-seconds.

Tanner Gray finished third, followed by Stewart Friesen and Chandler Smith. Grant Enfinger, Zane Smith, Christian Eckes, Matt Crafton and Tyler Ankrum — all playoff drivers — rounded out the top 10.

RELATED: Race results | Standings

“I was probably looking in my mirror more than I was looking out front,” Hill conceded of keeping Creed behind. “I knew he was better than we were and I knew I was going to have to protect.

“We didn’t have the best truck tonight, by no means,” Hill added. “We had to fight a lot of adversity in Stages 1 and 2. We weren’t good at all and (crew chief) Scott (Zipadelli) and the guys kept working on it and got better and better.

“The pit crew did a hell of a job on that last pit stop getting me in position I needed and I just had to go out there and get it and that’s what we did.”

With 11 laps remaining and Creed valiantly trying to catch Hill, his No. 2 GMS Racing Chevy truck hit the outside wall. He dropped from inside a second of catching Hill to falling more than a second behind. Yet he turned in a push in the final laps to keep Hill honest.

It marks the second victory of the season for the 26-year-old Georgia-native Hill and matched his playoff win at Las Vegas last year. Most importantly, it gives Hill the automatic berth into the next round of the 2020 playoffs. Entering the Las Vegas race, Hill had been ranked eighth of the 10 playoff drivers — the final transfer position after a rare non-top-10 finish (25th) in last week’s Bristol playoff opener. 

The victory was that much sweeter for his team since his No. 16 Hattori Racing Enterprises Toyota truck carried a very special name for NASCAR’s “Honor a Cancer Hero” weekend. Hill’s truck honored Torie Costa, Zipadelli’s 20-year-old daughter who passed away from cancer in 2015.

Creed certainly takes away some positives from the night, despite his heartbreaking ending. He swept both stage wins, besting Brett Moffitt in Stage 1 and Zane Smith in Stage 2 by a four-second advantage. The effort gave Creed a series-high seven stage wins this season.

“Just frustrating, the best truck I’ve had all year and best truck I’ve had at this race track,” Creed said. “We’re all racing hard. We’re in the playoffs, can’t really complain, that’s racing. Fought hard, back to second.”

RELATED: Creed ‘No. 16 knew who was faster tonight’

As for the other playoff-eligible drivers, Todd Gilliland finished 13th, Brett Moffitt was 15th and Ben Rhodes — who spun out and brought out one of the race’s five caution periods — was 23rd.

The playoff standings now show Hill with an automatic berth into the second round. Creed is ranked second, followed by Moffitt, Smith, Enfinger, Ankrum, Crafton and Eckes. With his tough night, Rhodes dropped to ninth place — six points behind Eckes with one race remaining to set the eight-driver, second-round field. Gilliland is 10th — 19 points behind Eckes.

In addition to the championship intrigue, the race featured a pair of new entrants — action sports star and former NASCAR Xfinity Series driver Travis Pastrana and IndyCar driver Conor Daly ran Niece Motorsports trucks. The idea was taking a fierce iRacing competition between the two into “real life.”

This round went to Daly, who finished 18th in his Gander Trucks debut. Pastrana’s truck suffered a couple early race setbacks and he went down a lap at one point, but rallied to a 21st-place finish.

The next race — and final Round of 10 competition — is the Talladega 250 at Talladega Superspeedway on Saturday, Oct. 3 (1 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Contributing: Staff reports

Hendrick Motorsports was assessed an L2-level penalty by NASCAR on Thursday afternoon for exceeding its 2020 wind tunnel test time — a violation of Sections 5.3.e in the NASCAR Rule Book.

As a result of the penalty, the organization has been fined $100,000 and hit with the loss of 10 hours of wind tunnel testing time from the organization’s 2020-21 allocation.

According to the NASCAR Rule Book, organizations are allocated 150 testing hours to be used on Gen-6 vehicles through Dec. 31, 2021, with a maximum usage of 70 hours in 2020 and a maximum usage of 90 hours in 2021.

NASCAR officials said the overage for Hendrick was less than an hour and the team self reported the violation.

Elsewhere on the penalty report, NASCAR fined a team in the NASCAR Xfinity Series and a team in the NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series for lug-nut violations last weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway. Each team, the No. 10 of Ross Chastain in Xfinity and the No. 19 of Derek Kraus in Trucks, was found with one lug nut not safe and secure in post-race inspection, a violation of Sections 10.9.10.4 in the NASCAR Rule Book.

RELATED: Xfinity results | Gander Trucks results

As a result, the crew chief for Chastain (Bruce Schlicker) was fined $5,000 and the crew chief for Kraus (Kevin Bellicourt) was docked $2,500. Chastain finished second in the Food City 300 and enters the Xfinity Playoffs ranked eighth. Kraus finished 15th in the UNOH 200 presented by Ohio Logistics.

The second race of the NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series’ 2020 playoffs is set for Friday night’s World of Westgate 200 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (9 p.m. ET on FS1, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) – and it still represents the first opportunity for a playoff driver to score a playoff victory and that all-important automatic pass into the playoffs’ Round of 8. 

Sam Mayer, a 17-year-old phenom, beat former series champion Brett Moffitt to the checkered flag by a healthy 4.413 seconds in last Thursday’s playoff opener. It was a great sign for the future of young NASCAR drivers, but the Bristol Motor Speedway race was not the way many of the 10 playoff drivers had envisioned starting their run to the big trophy.

Eight of the 10 playoff drivers will advance to the next round after races at Las Vegas this week and Talladega Superspeedway on Oct. 3.

RELATED: Full Las Vegas schedule | 2020 Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series schedule

Only four playoff drivers – Moffitt, Grant Enfinger, Tyler Ankrum and defending series champion Matt Crafton – finished among the top 10 at Bristol last weekend. Regular season champion Austin Hill finished 25th – only the third time all season he has finished worse than 12th. He arrives in Las Vegas teetering on the cutoff line – ranked eighth of the 10 drivers with a two-point edge on ninth-place Christian Eckes and an eight-point gap on 10th-place Todd Gilliland.

Moffitt’s runner-up effort (he led a race-best 117 of the 200 laps) was enough to move him atop the playoff standings by eight points ahead of Sheldon Creed. Moffitt still has not won a race this season, and Creed has a series-best three wins (as does Enfinger).

Three playoff drivers – Hill, Enfinger and Ben Rhodes – have wins at the 1.5-mile Las Vegas track, and all three are playoff race wins. Rhodes won the first Gander Truck Series race of his career at Las Vegas in 2017. Enfinger won the 2018 race, and Hill is the defending race winner of last season’s event.

Kyle Busch won at the track in March – before the COVID-19 pause in schedule. Hill finished third – best among those currently playoff eligible. Among those contending for the 2020 title, Crafton was fourth in the first Vegas race, Rhodes fifth, Zane Smith was sixth, followed by Gilliland in seventh and Creed in 10th.

Moffitt’s best work at Las Vegas is runner-up in spring of 2019. The 2018 series champ has three top-10 finishes in five starts – his worst outcome (16th) came this March. Creed has three top-10 finishes in three Las Vegas starts, a fourth place in last year’s playoff race is best for the driver of the No. 2 GMS Racing Chevrolet. Enfinger boasts that previous win at Vegas, but the driver of the No. 98 ThorSport Ford has finished 31st in the last two races at the track. 

Rhodes, the driver of the No. 99 ThorSport Ford, has an impressive Vegas resume. He earned the first win there in 2017 and has five top-10 showings in seven starts – including five of the last six races.  He goes into Friday’s race ranked seventh, however, after a subpar showing at Bristol.

Gilliland, who is eight points behind Hill, has an encouraging record at Las Vegas. His seventh-place finish in March marked his third top 10 in four starts. His best showing there is fifth in last year’s playoff race.