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Today’s FanShield 500 is the first race at a short, flat track in the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season. Ordinarily, that means we’d look back to the previous year to see how drivers performed, but with NASCAR reverting to a lower downforce aerodynamic package at these tracks, racing and driver ability should match the 2016-2018 seasons better than 2019.

What does it take to win at Phoenix under these conditions? Five of the six Phoenix winners from 2016-2018 displayed these characteristics:

  • A driver rating over the last eight short, flat tracks above 95
  • A driver rating over the last 15 races overall above 99
  • A top-14 speed over 10 consecutive laps in final practice

The lone exception is Ryan Newman, who won the 2017 spring race by staying out under a late-race caution and holding off drivers who took two or four tires. In other words, if we’re going to bet on a long shot, it has to be somebody who can still hang out on the lead lap, and win with strategy.

So which drivers offer the most value for today’s race?

NASCAR FanShield 500 at Phoenix Best Bet Picks

Kevin Harvick +600

Harvick has won seven of the past 15 races at Phoenix, including two of the six during the lower downforce seasons of 2016-2018. He had the fastest 10-lap average in final practice and was behind only Brad Keselowski in 15- to 25-lap averages. He also starts second, giving him clean air early on and one of the prime pit stalls for the race.

Harvick appears to have a better long-run car than Kyle Busch, and won’t have to contend with coming through the field to get to the front or a mediocre pit stall. The two grade out fairly evenly, but Harvick is discounted relative to Busch across the industry.

This line is available at both MGM in Las Vegas and PointsBet. I would bet him down to +550.

[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ only.]

Chase Elliott +1000

Elliott is often listed as the second favorite behind Busch at most books. However at BetMGM in New Jersey (+1000) he’s priced as either the third or fourth favorite. Elliott has been fast all weekend, grabbing the pole position and posting top-two times in single-lap speed in both practice sessions.

In fact, his second-fastest time in the opening practice session came in race trim!

In Elliott’s three incident-free Phoenix races in lower downforce after his rookie year, he had a driver rating of 114.7. That includes two top-three finishes. That is in the same range as Harvick (114.8) and Busch (119.6) in their incident-free races. Considering he’s on the Harvick and Busch level and his excellent car, I’d bet Elliott down to +600.

[Bet now at BetMGM. NJ only.]

Aric Almirola +7000

Almirola doesn’t fit the mold of a winner, but he does have some Newman-like characteristics that could put him in position should late-race strategy come into play. In fact, his resume is better than Newman’s race-winning 2017 resume.

Like Newman, Almirola’s best track type outside of Daytona and Talladega is the short, flat track. He has finishes of fourth, seventh and ninth in his last three low downforce Phoenix races. That ninth-place finish came with Richard Petty Motorsports in 2017.

Almirola also showed plenty of speed to hang out on the lead lap. He was fifth over 10 consecutive laps and third over a single lap. Newman was only 17th and 15th in those metrics. Almirola has plenty of speed in a sprint to the finish.

Almirola is going as low as +2000 at MGM and +2500 at FanDuel. But this +7000 line at Station Casinos is too good to pass up if you are in Las Vegas. He’s also +6000 at BetMGM and +4000 at PointsBet, which is as low as I’d bet him outright.

[Bet now at BetMGM. NJ only.]

AVONDALE, Ariz. – There was a fight on pit road after Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Phoenix Raceway. Somewhat surprisingly, it wasn’t between Austin Cindric and Ross Chastain.

The two NXS standouts felt glued together at times during the 200-lapper, finishing eighth and ninth, respectively, and swapping plenty of paint along the way.

PHOENIX: Race results | Jones wins | At-track photos

Earlier on in the race, Chastain came up quickly behind Cindric’s No. 22, nudging his left rear to get past him. Cindric later re-paid the favor, and things were dicey between the two until the checkered flag.

While Cindric said the contact was “not personal; not at all, actually,” he was baffled he was being raced so aggressively by the No. 10.

“That’s a great question for Ross,” Cindric told NASCAR.com. “I about got wrecked twice for positions, so that’s cool, I guess. I mean, it’s a one-lane race track, but the first thing you do when you run up on a guy is not left-rear him. Enough people realize that. It’s unfortunate you have to race it. He’s fast and he deserves to be here, but at the same time I’m not sure I deserved that.

“Anyone would be mad. I’d like to hear his point of view for sure. It’s usually just a wave and an ‘Oh, I’m sorry,’ but it’s part of it and it’s racing. It’s not anything to lose some sleep over. It’s not new for him.”

Chastain came to speak with media as Cindric was finishing up his questions, but the two did not speak. The Kaulig Racing driver also brushed off any issues with his Team Penske competitor.

“I’m right here and he didn’t say anything,” Chastain said. “I took fault there in Turn 3 early. He checked up more than I thought, and I got into him and let him catch it. He returned the favor well and good, so, yeah.”

AVONDALE, Ariz. – From race-winner Brandon Jones’ standpoint, it’s too bad there wasn’t a bounty on Kyle Busch in Saturday’s LS Tractor 200 at Phoenix Raceway.

Buoyed by a strong run through Turns 3 and 4, Jones shot past Busch into the lead on the frontstretch on Lap 181 and pulled away to win by 3.556 seconds over Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Harrison Burton, who passed Busch on Lap 190 for the NASCAR Xfinity Series’ runner-up position.

RELATED: Race results | Weekend schedule

Next weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, there will be a $100,000 bounty on Busch in the NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series race, courtesy of NASCAR Cup Series veteran Kevin Harvick and Marcus Lemonis, chairman and CEO of Camping World.

On Saturday, Jones had to be content with the satisfaction of beating the career leader in NASCAR Xfinity Series victories, who rolled home third without adding to his 96 wins in the series. Jones was happy to settle for the trip to Victory Lane — after beating Busch and fellow NASCAR Cup Series champion Brad Keselowski, who ran fourth.

“These are two of arguably the best in the business,” Jones said. “We just had a car to beat ’em today. These guys just did an incredible job.”

Crucial to the win was a quick pit stop on Lap 130 that got Jones second off pit road and fourth in the running order for a restart on Lap 134.

“I told (crew chief) Jeff (Meendering) kind of early in the race… I’m like, ‘Man, I’m just lacking track position — that’s the only thing I’m lacking,'” Jones said. “The pit crew did a heck of a job, and they said, ‘There you go. There’s your track position,’ and it paid off at the end.”

The 1-2-3 finish for JGR was the sixth in company history. More important, Jones’ second victory in the series and first at Phoenix was the 500th win for Toyota in NASCAR’s top three national series combined.

Burton’s No. 20 Toyota improved throughout the afternoon, as the 19-year-old driver — fresh from his maiden win at Auto Club Speedway last week — posted his fourth straight top-five finish to start the season.

“Early in the day, we weren’t good enough at all,” Burton said. “We were running ninth, 10th, somewhere back there. We fought really hard and got a lot better by the end. The 19 (Jones) kind of did the same thing.

“We got better and better and better as the race went on, so I’m really proud of that. That was Toyota’s 500th victory, so that’s really cool. Good to have a 1-2-3 when we do it. Proud of our guys. Proud of our effort. Not quite enough, but we’ll be back (at Phoenix in November), hopefully with a chance to win the championship.”

Keselowski recovered from an off-sequence pit stop and a brush with the outside wall to finish fourth, followed by Xfinity regulars Justin Haley, Chase Briscoe, Noah Gragson, Austin Cindric, Ross Chastain (who overcame a power-steering issue that put him a lap down) and Riley Herbst.

Justin Allgaier had perhaps the fastest car in the race, but the driver of the No. 7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet was trapped in a pit-stop zugzwang after staying on the track under caution early in Stage 3. Subsequently, Allgaier pitted for fuel only under the sixth yellow on Lap 139, but he failed to get a timely caution late in the race that would have allowed him to use his final set of new tires. He ultimately finished 13th.

Allgaier, who led 51 laps and won Stage 1, stood by crew chief Jason Burdett’s pit call.

“I’m good with the decision,” Allgaier said. “Obviously, it didn’t work out, and to say that I’m not disappointed would be lying to you. We had a fast, fast Camaro today. I thought we made the right call. I told him (Burdett) multiple times that I thought we made the right call.”

Ross Chastain is happy to fill in for recuperating Ryan Newman as long as he is needed in the No. 6 Roush Fenway Racing Ford.

On the other hand, Chastain would be just as happy if Newman were able to return to the car sooner rather than later.

Newman has been sidelined since suffering a head injury during a vicious wreck on the final lap of the season-opening Daytona 500 in February. Though he hasn’t been cleared to race medically, Newman is spending the weekend at Phoenix Raceway.

RELATED: Newman makes first track appearance | Blaney catches up with Newman

“Just as guys and as people, it’s just good to see him and see him walking around,” Chastain said after qualifying 24th in Saturday’s NASCAR Cup Series time trials. “As a person it’s just good to see him. He has a lot of information in that noggin of his. He has degrees that I probably can’t even spell. He understands these race cars and has given me a lot of information.”

Chastain has no idea how much longer he’ll be needed in the No. 6 Ford.

“We’re just happy he’s alive,” Chastain said. “I want him in the car tomorrow — if he could get in it. He already told me he could drive it without the (seat) insert. If I wasn’t back in time for practice, he said he would practice it.

“I don’t think they would allow that. I think we all know that. I want him back as soon as possible. It has been a great experience and a lot of learning on my side, but I would love for him to be able to get back in the car right now.”

AVONDALE, Ariz. — Brad Keselowski, you’re on the clock.

Team Penske announced Friday at Phoenix Raceway teammate Ryan Blaney had signed a multi-year extension to remain in the No. 12 Ford for next season, shifting the Silly Season focus to the 2012 NASCAR Cup Series champion and impending free agent.

Keselowski has been among the central figures in the spotlight for the potential ride shuffle for next season, some even pegging the 36-year-old as the favorite to replace the retiring Jimmie Johnson at Hendrick Motorsports.

RELATED: Silly Season in flux | Weekend schedule

In short, it doesn’t sound like that answer will come for some time.

“I really haven’t thought about (the game plan for an extension). I haven’t put any emphasis on it,” Keselowski said Saturday before his qualifying run of 14th. “I’ve been trying to … I had a baby over the offseason, trying to enjoy that. Then we had the team change right after that, trying to make the most of that and get off to the right start here the first few weeks.”

Keselowski’s last extension was signed in July 2017.

“Honestly, I haven’t worked on it but I’m really happy for Ryan that he got his deal done,” Keselowski said. “I understand that probably puts a lot more eyes on me. … So I’m really happy for him, but I haven’t talked to anyone or gone through any of those steps. I’m sure it’ll be coming up soon. I want to race and be in contention to win for a long time. I think I’ve got a pretty good car right now and that’s certainly not always easy to come by. There’s also a lot of really good rides out there, too, so we’ll see how it goes.”

There certainly are.

In addition to the 48, other potentially open top-tier seats are Hendrick Motorsports’ No. 88 as well (though Alex Bowman has certainly made a strong case to keep it), along with the Nos. 10 and 14 at Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 20 at Joe Gibbs Racing and the No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing.

Keselowski implied he won’t necessarily be looking to leave Penske, but if other teams are calling, he’s not letting it go to voicemail.

“I’m not dialing out,” he said. “But if somebody dials in, I’ll certainly listen for sure.”

While rumors are swirling – many of which, keep in mind, will wind up being false – there’s at least one that can be put to bed.

“I think I can win races and be competitive for another 10 years and that’s really what I want to do,” Keselowski said. “I want to win races and win more championships. I’m certainly very committed to doing that.

“I don’t know where (the retirement rumors) came from, but if it’s on the internet, it must be true.”

AVONDALE, Ariz. – Kevin Harvick showed the way, and Chase Elliott proved the model student in Saturday’s NASCAR Cup Series time trials at Phoenix Raceway.

After Harvick tested the traction compound at the top of the 1-mile track and made it work — running a qualifying lap in 26.110 seconds (137.878 mph) — Elliott followed with a pole-winning effort of 26.065 seconds (138.116 mph).

RELATED: Qualifying results | Weekend schedule

“Kevin kind of made the top work, and I think after everyone saw that, they moved up,” said Elliott, who earned his first Busch Pole Award of the season, his first at Phoenix and the ninth of his career. “It’s great to get a pole. We’ve got different colors this week with (sponsor) UniFirst on our Camaro. I’m excited to grab them a pole.

“It’s always exciting when you can put down a fast lap. Hopefully, (Sunday) goes good — that’s always the challenge. We’ll see, and I’m looking forward to it.”

Elliott and Harvick will line up on the front row for Sunday’s FanShield 500 (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Denny Hamlin (137.841 mph) and Kyle Larson (137.604 mph) will start third and fourth, respectively, in the conclusion to the three-race West Coast swing.

Qualifying near the front at Phoenix is nothing new to Elliott, who will start within the top 10 for the eighth straight race at the 1-mile mile track and on the front row for the third time in the last four events here.

Finishing races at Phoenix has proven another matter entirely for the driver of the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. Contrast Elliott’s average starting position of 5.5 to his average finish of 13.8.

Phoenix, on the other hand, has perhaps done more to cement Harvick’s reputation as “The Closer” than any other track. Harvick will start Sunday’s race trying to extend a streak of 13 straight top 10s in the Sonoran Desert, a string that includes six victories. All told, Harvick has won nine times at Phoenix.

“It was close,” said Harvick, who did not make a mock run in either of Friday’s practice sessions. “I probably didn’t have quite enough confidence on the first lap that I should have had in it. The guys did a great job.

“Not doing a qualifying lap in practice, we just worked on our race stuff, and we were kind of winging it right there as to what we thought was right, and it worked out OK.”

Series leader Ryan Blaney will start fifth, followed by Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch and Alex Bowman, last week’s winner at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California. Matt DiBenedetto qualified ninth, and Kyle Busch, the defending winner of the race, will line up 10th.

Notes: Elliott qualified for next year’s Busch Clash, which will be run on Daytona International Speedway’s road course for the first time. … Martin Truex Jr. posted the 12th-fastest lap but will start from the rear of the field for the second straight week because of an engine change. At Auto Club, Truex was also sent to the back of the field after his car failed inspection three times.

AVONDALE, Ariz. – Corey LaJoie has been beaten down.

By the sport, an unforgiving one. By losing sponsors, which tends to end careers. By working with people he, admittedly, didn’t get along with. By wondering if the fire suit should remain hung up and if his true calling was atop the pit box.

And yet, he’s still here.

You’re familiar with LaJoie, right? The 28-year-old who finished 29th in Cup Series standings last year in his first full-time season for Go Fas Racing at NASCAR’s highest level? Sure, he notched a pair of top 10s behind the wheel of the No. 32 Ford Mustang, but each of those results came at a superspeedway race. You might think you’ve got the whole picture by now.

This is a sport that rewards one winner, sending 39 drivers home pissed off on a weekly basis. What else is there to know about a driver who, realistically, knows he likely has little shot at a checkered flag right when the green one drops?

Everything.

“I think that people who strictly watch the broadcast on every Sunday don’t know (much about me or my abilities). The cars look the same, we run in the same race, and we run in the back. It’s easy for people to assume that you’re just a mediocre driver or less-than-capable driver just because of the position you run in,” LaJoie told NASCAR.com Friday afternoon at Phoenix Raceway, site of Sunday’s FanShield 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio). “And there’s also a fine line that I balance personally between shameless promotion and telling the facts, because I’m not one for shameless self-promotion. I would love to be able to go out there and let my driving and results do the talking, but in the Cup Series, your handicap is so much about what you’re driving that the opportunity to show what you’re capable of only presents itself three, maybe four times a year.”

MORE: Phoenix weekend schedule

It’s easy for some to brush off the superspeedway finishes – as those races historically bring parity among the field much, much closer – but those are exactly the opportunities he needs to nail in order to showcase what he’s actually made of. Strong finishes in the Coca-Cola 600 (12th), at Martinsville in the fall (18th, lead-lap finish) and two weekends ago at Las Vegas (16th) go a long way, too.

Knowing that those three to four chances to get his name on the top half of the TV ticker are relatively few – and so much happens and so much goes into the weeks, sometimes months that separate them – LaJoie has taken it upon himself to get his and other smaller teams’ stories out there through other various outlets, namely his MRN podcast, “Sunday Money,” and MotorTrend’s “NASCAR ALL IN: Battle For Daytona” series, highlighting his run-up to the “Great American Race” along with Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick.

RELATED: MotorTrend app: LaJoie, crew fume after Daytona Duel incident

If it feels like you’re hearing more about LaJoie these days – more so than we typically hear about the driver of a car with back-half-of-the-field equipment – it’s intentional on his part, sure, but it’s more because people are coming to understand that there’s talent and personality throughout the field. And they’re connecting with his regular-guy, no-frills-added authenticity.

“I’ve probably gained 10,000 new followers on Instagram, 12,000 on Twitter and I have people tweeting me all the time like, ‘Hey man, you’re great on the show’ and, like, that’s just my real life,” he said. “I’m not putting on a façade or faking it or putting something on for the camera. Like, they literally just followed me around for six weeks and they got stuff and shot it.”

This kind of demeanor and perspective doesn’t happen by accident, however. The “stacking pennies” mantra that LaJoie has coined – pun only half intended – doesn’t develop overnight.

It comes from getting knocked down 99 times, getting up 100.

“Just getting beat down enough and figuring out how to pull yourself up by your bootstraps,” LaJoie says. “This sport has an amazing way of humbling you, even for the guys on the other side of the garage winning races. For every win, you’re going to have three or four bad weeks and you’re going to have to figure out how to rebound. Whether that be your self-confidence, or your team around you, just morale overall. Going through all the trials and all the hard times and lack of driving opportunities or lack of good driving opportunities that have come about, you kind of figure out what moves the needle when it comes to relating to people and sponsors or the fans.

“That was kind of the letter I wrote to Rick (Hendrick, pitching himself for the No. 48 Chevrolet for next year), it’s like, man, I don’t have the statistics on Racing Reference because I haven’t been in any car that’s capable of putting up any good statistics … but, a lot of this (expletive) you don’t learn unless you have to do it the hard way. That’s what I’ve had to do. Every. Single. Thing. I’ve had to deal with losing the sponsors. Working with people that (I) probably didn’t always get along with. Relating to the fans. Just doing the humbling of yourself and putting your pride on the back burner just for the sake of being able to do what you love.”

Who can’t relate to and appreciate that?

None of this has been easy for Corey LaJoie. There likely have been days when he wished it was, wondering why he didn’t have the fortune of a driver stepping into a top-tier ride immediately because the funding was there. There likely have been times when everything on paper was telling him it made the most sense to walk away, with just one quiet voice in the back of his head gnawing at him to press on.

And still, he’s the driver using what he’s been given to do things that matter. Just last year, he waived a full month’s salary to put Samaritan’s Feet, a charitable cause he believes in, on his No. 32 Ford. He’s currently putting together a kickball tournament to take place during the Charlotte race weeks featuring some of NASCAR and the NFL’s biggest stars for the charity as well.

When his time comes to truly show what he’s capable of – and all recent indications point to that potentially being the case over the next few years, if not 2021 – he won’t want to have changed anything, as everything was as it was supposed to be.

MORE: 2021 Silly Season shaping up to be wild one

“I’ll be honest, man. My faith has a big part of (coming to this perspective.) My self-worth growing up probably was wrapped up in how I did during any particular race because I thought that Rick Hendrick was watching me. I thought how I did that particular Saturday night race at Hickory (Speedway) was going to make or break my career and that’s what I got my self-worth from. I’ve been in church my whole life but the more I started digging in and knowing what it says and knowing what God’s heart is, I don’t get my self-worth out of how I finish on Sundays. Granted, I care about it and I want to win every single race I’m in, but even when I don’t, it doesn’t change what my value is. That doesn’t make the guy who’s in Victory Lane more or less valuable than the next guy.

“ … I’ve read all of Tim Tebow’s books and he gave me a great perspective of using football, or baseball or racing in my case as a platform to spread positive vibes or whatever you’re into, love. Don’t abuse the platform and the blessings and the money and the toys and the stuff that’s easy to take for granted. Just use it and eventually, if it’s meant to be, I will be in a car that’s capable of winning races.

“And if it’s not meant to be, I’m having a hell of a ride right now.”

Martin Truex Jr. will start at the rear of the field due to an engine change prior to Sunday’s FanShield 500 for the NASCAR Cup Series at Phoenix Raceway (3:30 p.m. on FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

The No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team swapped out the power unit of its Toyota Camry before pre-qualifying technical inspection Saturday morning at the 1-mile oval.

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Qualifying order

Truex posted the 24th-fastest time during Friday afternoon’s opening practice session, followed by a 25th-place result in final practice.

Front Row Motorsports had indicated earlier Saturday that John Hunter Nemechek would also drop to the rear during pace laps on Sunday due to a radiator change, but the race-day status of his No. 38 Ford is still being determined.

NASCAR Cup Series Busch Pole Qualifying is slated for 2:35 p.m. ET on FS1.

AVONDALE, Ariz. – Even before Ryan Newman visited Phoenix Raceway on Friday, he surprised his fellow Ford drivers at a team-building session at Arizona State University’s football stadium.

Ryan Blaney, who was a central figure in the Daytona 500 wreck that sent Newman into the path of Corey LaJoie’s car, was especially happy to see Newman looking fit and healthy after injuries kept the Roush Fenway Racing driver in the hospital for two anxious nights.

RELATED: Ryan Newman treated, released from hospital  | Ross Chastain going ‘week to week’

“We had no idea that he was going to show up,” Blaney said. “We were having dinner and he walked in. That was great. That was the first time I’ve seen Ryan personally (since the accident)… I think the first time a lot of us had seen Ryan. That was really cool to see. We sat and talked, the whole Ford group, for an hour, hour-and-a-half once he got there. We talked about a lot of stuff.

“It was nice to see him. He’s full Ryan Newman caliber and it is great to see. It was cool to hear some of the process that he went through and some of the doctors that worked on him. They were very extensive with him and he has been passing everything with flying colors, which is unheard of and great to hear.”

Though the timetable for Newman’s return to racing remains unclear, subject to medical clearances, the driver of the No. 6 Ford provided a one-word answer when asked how he was feeling.

“Lucky,” Newman said Friday morning at the one-mile track. “It’s great to be alive. If you’re looking at my (wrecked) car, it’s a miracle.”

RELATED: Watch the final lap of the 2020 Daytona 500

Newman came to Phoenix as both a cheerleader and helper.

“I’m here just spectating,” he said. “Just having fun. I’m really just here to support the 6 team. Stay integrated with what I can do with the team. Have some fun, obviously. That’s really what it’s all about. I want to see (substitute driver) Ross (Chastain) do well, but I’d rather be in Ross’s seat.

“I just want to make sure we’re doing everything we possibly can for our sponsors and for myself to have a good weekend.”

Though sidelined, Newman is using the Phoenix trip not only to observe his own team in action but also that of teammate Chris Buescher.

“I get a chance now to watch not just the 6 but the 17 and how they work and the teamwork that goes into that,” Newman said. “That’s equally as important to me to have an opportunity to see them and watch them perform when I’m not in the race car.

“I feel like I should be able to take advantage of this crazy opportunity.”