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There are only 36 points-paying races on the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series schedule. With such limited opportunities to bet, it can be hard to refrain from playing multiple drivers every weekend.

However, we should only make bets when we project a positive expected value.

Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 is one of those weekends where it’s hard to find winning value. I’m not projecting a lot of value in the market, for two reasons.

First, favorites typically win at Richmond, which means we need to limit our exposure to longer shots. If we choose a driver with long odds, he needs to be a driver who has shown plenty of upside on a team with winning capabilities.

The list of winners since 2013 — while NASCAR has used the Gen-6 car — is a who’s who of NASCAR stars:

2013: Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards
2014: Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski
2015: Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth
2016: Edwards, Denny Hamlin
2017: Logano, Kyle Larson
2018: Kyle Busch, Ky. Busch
2019: Martin Truex Jr.

Only twice has a driver representing a team other than Joe Gibbs Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing or Team Penske taken the checkered flag. Those instances were Kevin Harvick in 2013 during his final year at Richard Childress Racing and Kyle Larson for Chip Ganassi Racing in 2017.

RELATED: Analyzing matchup bets

Second, it’s hard to bet this weekend’s race favorites since they are priced quite well across the market. That makes it hard to find enough value to feel confident a bet within this group will return long-term value.

Don’t shut things down completely however. There is still potential for things to change. If a driver’s car fails post-qualifying inspection, he will be sent to the rear of the field for the start of the race. Very often, the market will overreact to this news, and more value can be found. Additionally, there is definitely head-to-head value for Saturday night’s race.

As of right now, because the favorites are priced quite accurately, I have only one longer play. But stay tuned for updates to this article as inspection results come in.

MORE: See odds to win

Kyle Larson +2750 to Win

Larson is on a 73-race winless streak since his most recent win in the Cup Series in 2017. That win, as mentioned earlier, came in the second Richmond race in which Larson led 53 laps en route to his fifth-career win.

That win isn’t his only strong performance at Richmond. He also has a second-place finish in the 2016 fall edition of the race, and four top-seven finishes in his last six Richmond starts. Going back 10 races, Larson has finished inside the top 12 seven times. Overall, since his last Cup Series win, Larson has eight runner-up finishes. It’s clear he puts himself in position to win quite frequently.

Practice was also encouraging for the 27-year-old driver. He placed inside the top 12 in every consecutive lap category in final practice. More importantly, in the cooler opening practice session, Larson was either first or second over 10, 15, 20 and 25 consecutive laps.

That shows Larson had elite speed when track temperatures were cooler, and second-tier speed when track temperatures were warmer. I like looking at the early session when temperatures were a bit cooler because the race will be held at night which should more closely resemble the opening practice conditions.

Larson has the upside to win. The combination of strong track history and elite opening practice speed means he’s valuable down to +2000.

RICHMOND, Va. — The two other members of the NASCAR Xfinity Series’ Big Three opened their playoff quests Friday night with finishes on the virtual podium. For defending series champ Tyler Reddick, Richmond Raceway produced a head-scratching result that left him “kind of baffled.”

Reddick eked out a 10th-place finish in Friday’s Go Bowling 250, the opening event in the seven-race postseason. Meanwhile, fellow regular-season dominator Christopher Bell pounced for his series-leading seventh win of the season, and Big Three member Cole Custer settled for third.

RELATED: Official results | Xfinity Series standings

Reddick finished outside the top 10 in both stages, and only a hard-fought rally past fellow postseason hopefuls Ryan Sieg and Brandon Jones in the closing laps salvaged a top-10 final result.

“I’m not necessarily frustrated, just confused more than anything,” said Reddick, who thought his car had a flat tire near the end of the first stage. “We kind of had to rebound through Stage 2 and we still didn’t have a better car. I just, we’re just kind of baffled as to what happened to our car. We didn’t think it was that bad, and it was in the race. We just had to fight really, really hard to get every spot we could there and we were fortunate to at least get to 10th.”

Reddick’s Richard Childress Racing No. 2 Chevrolet team may have had momentum from last weekend’s victory in the regular-season finale at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. But crew chief Randall Burnett said that an otherwise mundane fourth-place run at the .75-mile Richmond track in April didn’t hold much promise for a turnaround. As a result, Burnett & Co. opted to try different setups in an attempt to offset the dread.

“We’ve worked really hard on it, just for whatever reason, we just haven’t figured out how to get around this place just yet,” Burnett told NASCAR.com. “We were OK with the balance in practice, but it was pretty slow, so the crew chief decided he was going to change a bunch of stuff going into the race and probably didn’t help it any. I’ve got to stop doing that. We just didn’t have it tonight. This was definitely one of those places in the (playoffs), this was probably the one that had our biggest concern coming in here.”

The next concern for the Xfinity Series’ postseason field of 12 comes at the Charlotte Motor Speedway oval and road-course layout, which returns for its second edition next weekend. Reddick still holds a 38-point buffer over the cut-off line with the Roval then Dover to close out the postseason’s opening round.

“The Roval’s a fantastic place for opportunity, but even more fantastic of a place to wad your cars up,” Reddick said. “We’re in a really good spot going into that race. I think if we do a little bit better job of managing our race than we did here today, we should be able to come out of the Roval in a good enough spot to just be smart at Dover and be fine. We’re going to have speed again here soon, I’m sure.”

RICHMOND, Va. — Eager to add a NASCAR Xfinity Series championship to his resume in perhaps his final season in the series, Christopher Bell made an emphatic statement in Friday night’s Go Bowling 250 at Richmond Raceway.

Bell swept the first two stages of the series playoff opener — bringing his total of stage wins to 17 — and led a career-best 238 laps in the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, winning for the seventh time this season, the third time in five starts at the .75-mile short track and the 15th time in his Xfinity Series career.

RELATED: Unofficial results

“That one was pretty special,” said Bell, who passed pole winner Austin Cindric for the lead on Lap 86 and never trailed after that. “Going 92 laps straight there (on the final green-flag run) was really difficult. We were sliding all around.

“I felt like, if I could get through traffic, I would be in good shape because my car could really move around good. I could run up (the track) and I could run down. The No. 00 (eventual third-place finisher Cole Custer) was keeping pressure on us pretty good, but this Supra was too good.”

Bell finished 1.700 seconds ahead of Cindric, who passed Custer on Lap 239 of 250 to secure the runner-up position. Bell’s car was so dominant that he opened a lead of 7.743 seconds over Cindric before Vinnie Miller hit the Turn 2 wall to bring out the second caution on Lap 51.

The only pressure Bell felt during his cruise to the checkers came from Custer, who passed Cindric for second on Lap 87 and shadowed the race winner early in the final stage, drawing within three car lengths at one point before Bell widened his advantage in traffic.

“The 00 could kind of close a little on us in the middle part of the run, but I was just trying to keep hitting my marks, keeping the rear tires underneath me and running on that yellow line (at the apron),” Bell said. “When the 00 was closing, I was getting nervous, because I was pretty much running as hard as I could without slipping the tires), and he was gaining on me a little at a time there.

“It seemed like my car could move around maybe a little bit better than his, and lapped traffic helped me get a little bit of a gap.”

Custer faded to 4.432 seconds back at the finish.

“We were just kind of loose to start the run,” Custer said. “It kind of got worse, and I was using too much break and got to tight center (in the center of the corners). We were really close there for a second, but I just didn’t have the long-run speed.”

Cindric posted his second straight runner-up finish at Richmond, after running second to Custer in the spring. He’s fourth in the standings with a comfortable margin heading to the Charlotte Roval.

“This is the only double-digit buffer I think I’ve ever had in anything in NASCAR, so I’ll take it,” Cindric said. “Obviously, a really good night for the MoneyLion Ford Mustang, keeping the Fords up front. Two runner-up finishes here at Richmond is good, but you want to win races, so I’ve got to keep working and keep figuring out how to catch that guy in the 20 (Bell). But overall, a great day.”

Justin Allgaier finished fourth after qualifying second and dropping to the rear of the field for the start because of a pre-race tire change. Chase Briscoe ran fifth, followed by Harrison Burton, Noah Gragson, Zane Smith, Michael Annett and Tyler Reddick.

With an automatic berth in the Round of 12, Bell leads the playoff standings by 18 points over Custer and Reddick. Brandon Jones (11th Friday), Ryan Sieg (12th), Justin Haley (17th) and John Hunter Nemechek (15th) fell below the cutline for the next round, with an elimination race looming in two weeks at Dover.

RICHMOND, Va. — In a battle of late qualifiers at Richmond Raceway, Brad Keselowski knocked Kevin Harvick off the pole for Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 to claim the top starting spot for the second race in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs (7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

The 36th of 38 drivers to make a qualifying run, Keselowski covered the .75-mile distance in 21.229 seconds (127.185 mph) to beat Harvick (126.559 mph) by .105 seconds. The Busch Pole Award was Keselowski’s third this season, his second at Richmond and the 17th of his career.

When Keselowski qualified first at Richmond in the fall of 2014, he also won the race. On Friday, he was fastest in time trials without the benefit of a mock qualifying run during practice earlier in the day.

RELATED: Full Richmond schedule | Unofficial lineup

“It was really good,” Keselowski said. “We didn’t do a qualifying run in practice, but we’ve had phenomenal short-run speed here.

“The last two or three years here, we haven’t necessarily qualified all that well here, but when the race comes, and we get the short runs, we could really make some steam, and it showed that here in qualifying.

“I hope we have the long-run speed — I think there’s going to be a lot of long runs in the race, but certainly qualifying up front, getting the first pit stall, all those things that go with it are great for our chances tomorrow. Really excited to get our third pole of the year. Last year we didn’t have a pole, and this year we’ve got three, so I’m really proud of my team, and great effort for us.”

Harvick, the 33rd driver to make a qualifying attempt, felt he left some speed on the table.

“I knew when I came in, I’m like ‘Ooh, man, I didn’t get anywhere close to getting everything out of that lap,’ especially in (Turns) 1 and 2 — or 3 and 4,” said Harvick who, like Keselowski, did not make a qualifying run in practice. “I just kind of cruised along the bottom and just didn’t push the car hard enough.”

Chase Elliott (126.194 mph) qualified third, followed by Kyle Busch (126.103 mph) and Clint Bowyer (126.068 mph), as playoff drivers grabbed the top nine starting spots. Denny Hamlin, Aric Almirola, Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch will start sixth through ninth, respectively, with non-playoff driver Jimmie Johnson securing the 10th position.

Other playoff drivers will start as follows: Kyle Larson 13th, Ryan Blaney 15th, Erik Jones 16th, Ryan Newman 19th, Alex Bowman 20th, William Byron 25th and Joey Logano 28th.

RICHMOND, Va. — Daniel Hemric says he’s confident he did everything in his power to keep his seat with Richard Childress Racing’s No. 8 Chevrolet in 2020, saying that the decision came as a mild surprise.

Hemric reflected on the announcement of his impending departure from the RCR camp after Friday’s practices at Richmond Raceway, host of Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM). The .75-mile track was also the site of Hemric’s Monster Energy Series debut with RCR in April 2018.

“I feel like every night I’ve laid my head down, I knew I did everything I could do. I’ve always said that,” Hemric said. “If you do that, that’s all you can do in life, no matter what it is — driving a race car, being a father, a husband, a parent, whatever it is. If you lay your head down, you know you gave it everything you had, then that’s what allows me to sleep at night.”

Hemric spent two full seasons in each the Xfinity and Gander Trucks series before moving to NASCAR’s top division for a Sunoco Rookie of the Year campaign this year. The 28-year-old driver ranks 25th in the Monster Energy Series standings with a best finish of fifth — his lone top five — at Talladega Superspeedway in April.

RELATED: Full schedule for Richmond

News of RCR’s decision to release Hemric at season’s end trickled out Wednesday, just 10 days shy of a year since an emotional press conference at Charlotte Motor Speedway when Hemric was introduced as Ryan Newman’s successor. Friday at Richmond, Hemric spoke about his future in terms of landing with another organization, including those in NASCAR’s other national series.

“Listen, I’ve been down and out many times,” Hemric said. “Everybody knows my situation, where I’ve come from, the things I’ve had to overcome to get to here, and it’s no different. Back’s been against the wall and hey, somehow you made it to the top level of the sport. So I don’t care where I end up at. I’m not done.”

Hemric joined RCR on the Xfinity Series side, driving its No. 21 Chevrolet for two seasons from 2017-18. He qualified for the Championship 4 round both years, winning five pole positions.

Hemric’s rookie season has been a rocky one, marked by inconsistent results that fueled speculation surrounding his job status for 2020. That instability coincided with the rise of Tyler Reddick, who has won five Xfinity Series races in his first year for RCR, one season removed from claiming the series title for JR Motorsports.

Though team owner Richard Childress has publicly been bullish about Reddick’s premier-series future, the defending series champ has kept mum when asked about a potential link to the No. 8 Chevy. “I got nothing on that for you,” he reiterated Thursday at an Xfinity Series Playoffs kick-off event, saying he was trying to block out distractions as he chases a second title.

For Hemric, he said was “blown away” by the outpouring of support as he tries to determine the next step in his stock-car racing career.

“It’s very humbling to have not only people inside the industry but your peers as far as guys you race with on the race track to have some of the stars of the sport reach out with their gratitude and their praise for what they feel like you’re doing on and off the race track,” Hemric said. “Those are the guys who really see you in the heat of the moment. To have everyone on that side support me like they have, that’s led to a lot of phone calls and a lot of conversations with a lot of race teams over the last week. Because of that I’m thankful.”

Series points leader Martin Truex Jr. topped the leaderboard in Friday’s final Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series practice at Richmond Raceway at 121.885 mph in the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. Truex won the spring race earlier this season at Richmond and is already locked into the Round of 12 thanks to his Las Vegas win last weekend.

Fellow playoff driver Chase Elliott was right behind him in the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet at 119.861 mph, good for second place.

RELATED: Richmond lap averages | Final practice results

Rounding out the top five were Sunoco Rookie of the Year contender Daniel Hemric in the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet (119.268 mph), Denny Hamlin in the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota (119.211 mph) and Austin Dillon in the No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet (118.995 mph).

Kevin Harvick in the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford was the highest finishing Ford in sixth with a fast lap of 118.964 mph.

Playoff driver William Byron got into the wall during final practice in the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet but the team was able to make minor repairs and send Byron back on track. He finished practice in 27th.

The Monster Energy Series qualifying session is at 6:05 p.m. ET on NBCSN/NBC Sports App.

FIRST PRACTICE

Chris Buescher topped the leaderboard in Friday’s first Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series practice at Richmond Raceway at 121.147 mph in the No. 37 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet.

Right behind him was playoff driver Joey Logano in the No. 22 Team Penske Ford at 120.962 mph.

RELATED: Lap averages from Richmond | First practice results

Rounding out the top five were playoff drivers William Byron in the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (120.827 mph), defending race winner Kyle Busch in the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota (120.687 mph) and Kyle Larson in the No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet (120.487 mph).

Series points leader Martin Truex Jr., who won the playoff opener last weekend at Las Vegas and punched his ticket to the Round of 12, was 13th fastest with a speed of 119.723 mph in the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.

The No. 00 of Landon Cassill was held for 15 minutes at the end of first practice as a penalty for being late out of the garage for inspection at Las Vegas.

Bowling and NASCAR. Those aren’t often two words you often hear in the same sentence, but Stewart-Haas Racing driver Aric Almirola and professional bowler Jason Belmonte brought both together for one incredible feat.

Almirola and Belmonte, an Australian professional bowler, completed a stunt like no other at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course on Sept. 4

Together, the two executed the world’s fastest strike — 140 mph — at the start/finish line of the Roval course, while wearing matching Go Bowling fire suits in a decked out Go Bowling Ford Mustang.

Almirola was driving the No. 10 Ford around the Roval with Belmonte in the passenger seat throwing a bowling ball down the frontstretch. It only took a few attempts for the two to get the right line and the right location to drop the ball.

Check out the full video below.

Almirola currently is in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs and vying for his first title. Heading into this weekend’s race at Richmond, Almirola sits 12th place in the standings.

CONCORD, N.C. (Sept. 20, 2019) – Leading machine tool manufacturer Cincinnati Inc. has joined 12-time NASCAR Cup Series champions Hendrick Motorsports as an official partner with a team record 10-year agreement that will begin in 2019 and run through the 2028 racing season.

Cincinnati will be showcased as primary sponsor of driver Alex Bowman’s No. 88 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 in the Oct. 6 Cup Series playoff race at Dover International Speedway and in two events in 2020. In addition to being named Hendrick Motorsports’ Official Metal Fabrication and Additive Equipment Provider, the Ohio-based company will become a full-season associate sponsor of the team’s entire four-car stable for the next decade.

“We are absolutely thrilled to begin this relationship with Hendrick Motorsports,” said Rakesh Kumar, vice president of sales, service and marketing for Cincinnati Inc., which was founded in the 1890s. “Rick Hendrick’s teams have a long and storied history of winning at every level. We are proud to be associated with that incredible record and partner with another enduring American brand. We look forward to starting off our partnership as a primary sponsor of Alex Bowman and having a presence across all four teams for many years to come.”

Hendrick Motorsports will utilize Cincinnati’s state-of-the art equipment in the development and construction of its full fleet of race cars, including laser cutting, press brake and additive manufacturing machinery. Cincinnati’s 10-year commitment is the longest single sponsorship pact in the history of the team, which was founded in 1984.

RELATED: Liberty University extends with Byron

“Ten years is quite a statement,” said Rick Hendrick, owner of Hendrick Motorsports. “It demonstrates how the Cincinnati team feels about NASCAR and the opportunities the sport presents for their business. From the perspective of our team, it’s a major endorsement of how fantastic the Cincinnati products are and the confidence we have that the relationship will help provide a competitive advantage on the racetrack. We look forward to a lot of trips to Victory Lane together over the next decade.”

In 2019, Bowman secured his second consecutive playoff berth in his second full Cup season with the No. 88 team. The 26-year-old driver won his first Cup-level race June 30 at Chicagoland Speedway and this year has posted personal records in multiple statistical categories.

“The best way we can welcome Cincinnati to Hendrick Motorsports is with a playoff win,” said Bowman, who led 16 laps and recorded a runner-up result at Dover on May 6. “After our performance there earlier this season, I’m excited to get back to Dover and finish one spot better. We’re looking forward to having Cincinnati on board with the No. 88 team.”

On the dashboard of every car Garrett Smithley has ever driven is written one phrase that has defined his life as a race car driver: “Patience, never give up.”

By chance, it was scrawled on the very first used Bandolero his parents helped him buy — the only equipment they ever bought him — when he was 15 years old and initially began to dream of a career in NASCAR. He liked it, and it stayed. 

It has been on the NASCAR Xfinity Series cars he has driven for JD Motorsports for the past four years he has been the full-time driver of the No. 0 Chevrolet.

And it has been in his car for all 11 of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races the 27-year-old has driven in over the past two years.

“If I kind of live my life by that, then I have a better shot to make everything happen,” Smithley says.

Patience helped him get to NASCAR in the first place, as Smithley grew up an avid fan of racing but never even stepped foot into so much as a go-kart until he was 15 years old. One perfect turn on a lap and he was hooked with a realization he had been waiting his whole life for that feeling.

Persistence has allowed him to not only take a chance on himself by learning every aspect of the sport — from driving to securing sponsorship — but moving from Georgia to Charlotte at age 18 on the hopes he could get noticed despite his limited experience.

Smithley knows he got a late start in the racing world. He knows he has only driven for small teams and has had to scrap to sell his own sponsorship deals and use his background in theater to showcase his charismatic personality. 

But he believes there’s a place in NASCAR for him, too — even if Kyle Busch grumbled last week in Las Vegas that he wasn’t qualified to race at the highest level after making contact with Smithley’s lapped No. 52 late in the race.

“There’s no set path to get to the Cup Series,” Smithley says. “There’s no path that says, ‘Hey, you need to do this, this, this and this and this.’ I feel like my path is one of the more unique paths — kind of doing it grassroots and getting to the big stage relatively quickly after having a late start.”

•   •   •

Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Matt Sullivan | Getty Images

Smithley has been watching NASCAR races for as long as he can remember. With no family connections to the sport, he never imagined it as a career option. His father and grandfather both were in the military, with his dad’s pilot job taking him from Pennsylvania to Virginia to Georgia. 

He played with Matchbox cars and auto racing video games. He remembers attending his first race at Dover when he was 6 years old — and he fell asleep in his mother’s lap. That was the extent of his early racing experience.

Instead, he played football and baseball. And his mom loved theater, so by age 5, Smithley was singing and acting, too. When he was a junior in high school, he landed the lead of Charlie in “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.” Yes, that’s a musical.

His life changed when his parents brought him to an amusement park where he drove a go-kart at age 15.

“There was one turn that I remember,” Smithley says. “I was out toward the wall and drove into the corner, apexed the corner and hit the lines perfect and swung out to the wall. It was that corner, and I know it sounds cliché, but I was like, ‘Wow, that was really cool. I feel like I can do that for a living.’ ”

RELATED: Meet Joey Gase | Busch, Smithley, Gase sound off

Somehow, his parents never doubted him — but they didn’t know how to go about helping their son get into the sport, either. So Smithley began googling. At Senoia Raceway, near his Peachtree City, Georgia, home, he learned he could test drive a Bandolero for $40.

“I spun out three times, but didn’t hit the wall,” Smithley remembers.

Eventually, that led to Smithley’s parents buying him a Bandolero — the one with the quote — as he tried to figure out how to race it. When he showed up to a practice race, he realized he still had a lot to learn. He didn’t have safety equipment. He wasn’t sure how anything worked.

“I didn’t know how to buckle myself in,” Smithley says. “We had to ask the next family over how to buckle me in. We had no idea what we were doing.”

Around that time, Tina Johnson first spotted Smithley zooming around the track — and wrecking often. The driving instructor who raced Legend and Bandolero cars for 15 years noticed the talented young kid who had no fear and plenty of drive. When Smithley came to her to ask for guidance, she was thrilled.

“You can see in kids the drive or if they’re scared,” she says. “Garrett never had that (fear). Every time I tell him to do something, he listened so well and he always saved his cars and was just a go-getter.”

She helped him learn the details of the sport, how to drive without wrecking, how to shift gears when he moved to a Legend car. In his first real race, he finished fourth.

“Probably it took me 15 minutes and Garrett knew how to drive a clutch system,” Johnson says. “That is not easy, but he had it. He is such a quick learner.”

When someone recommended Smithley attend the Richard Petty Driving Search in Charlotte in 2010, he didn’t hesitate. It wasn’t racing — he served as a driving instructor for the Richard Petty Driving Experience — but he’d still be around cars while in the epicenter of the sport in Charlotte. That was one step closer to NASCAR.

Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Smithley has dubbed his No. 0 Xfinity Series team #NumberNuthin. Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images

During five years with the Richard Petty Driving Experience, Smithley focused on learning the business side of the sport — how to sell sponsorship, how to cold-call CEOs and ask for funding. All the while, he still dreamed of racing at the highest levels.

Brian Keselowski ran the Richard Petty Driving Experience and in late 2012, recommended that Smithley drive in an ARCA test session at Daytona.

“He was like two-tenths quicker than our other driver,” Keselowski said. “I still haven’t figured out how he did that. How did you do that at Daytona, of all places? It’s pretty much just a wide-open, hold-it-down track. I was pretty impressed with that.”

It was, it turns out, Smithley’s big break. He landed three ARCA races in 2013 from that test, and then four Gander Outdoors Truck Series races in 2015.

In 2016, he talked to Johnny Davis about driving three Xfinity Series races. That turned into 32 of 33 races that season, and he has been driving for JD Motorsports ever since. His best finish of fifth at Daytona last season buoyed his 22.1 average finish in 2018.

It is not the conventional route, Smithley realizes. He was patient and persistent and it worked.

“I did things completely backwards,” he admits.

•   •   •

Kyle Busch says Smithley “killed our day” last weekend in Las Vegas when his No. 18 Toyota found the rear bumper of Smithley’s No. 52 Rick Ware Racing Ford as he tried to maneuver around the lapped car late in the South Point 400.

“We’re the top echelon of motorsports and we’ve got guys that have never won Late Model races running out here on the race track,” Busch told reporters after finishing 19th. “It’s pathetic. They don’t know where to go.”

No, Smithley has never won a Late Model race. He never even raced in one. He took his unconventional route to NASCAR by finding sponsorship that helped him land his first Monster Energy Series race in 2018 at Michigan — where he drove 215 mph when he had never approached that speed before, and was in awe of who he was sitting next to at the driver meeting.

But Smithley still wants respect for where he is and how he got there.

STATS: Analyze Smithley’s career

“I completely understand Kyle’s frustration,” Smithley says. “I get why he was upset. He’s running for a championship; it’s high stakes. I totally get it. I wasn’t mad that he was upset. But I feel like I did everything in my power to hold my line. Two cars got around me and one didn’t.

“What I took offense to is when he calls my career into question, when he says, ‘Oh, guys who haven’t even won Late Model races are out here running the Cup Series.’ Yeah, I didn’t have the opportunity to run with the best of the best. He’s been in that position for a lot of years. Obviously he’s a great race car driver. There’s no question he’s one of the best out there and he’s a future Hall of Famer. I’m not taking anything away from that. I just haven’t had those opportunities.”

Smithley has only driven for smaller teams like StarCom Racing, Spire Motorsports and Rick Ware Racing in his Cup Series races. 

“They do everything they can to be able to compete all race long and every week, but they’re probably short on engines and tires and all the things that make race cars go fast,” Keselowski says.

Smithley says there’s a special gratification that comes for driving for smaller teams and seeing the impact made by tiny gains. He sees the passion that drives smaller teams to still compete, and it inspires him.

Still, he wonders what might happen if he had a chance to drive for a bigger team.

“I kind of joked around, but I was serious when I said if Kyle put me in something he owned, Late Models or Trucks, there’s no question I could win,” Smithley says.

Hey, you never know. Patience, never give up.