Posted on by Staff Report

Chase Elliott came into Dover International Speedway pegged as a favorite to contend for the race win.

After just eight laps, Elliott took the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet to pit road because, as he said on the radio, he thought the car was blowing up. After the team examined the vehicle on pit road, Elliott’s fears were confirmed and the crew wheeled the car to the garage.

Elliott, who won last week at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval road course and was the defending winner at this week’s race at Dover, went behind the wall and eventually his day was done with a 38th-place finish.

RELATED: Logano goes to garage before start of race | Race results

“Yeah I just had an engine failure of some sort,” Elliott said. “Unfortunately, we don’t really know what it was just yet. It just quit running. It didn’t really seem like anything was off. We were just kind of making laps and then obviously had a failure. It’s an unfortunate way to start this round for sure.”

Elliott won at Dover last October to kick off the Round of 12 and had never finished worse than 12th at the 1-mile concrete oval in seven starts and has six top-five finishes.

Elliott entered the race sixth in the standings, 19 points above the cutline. Eight of the 12 playoff drivers will advance to the Round of 8 in two weeks after the elimination race at Kansas Speedway. Next weekend’s race is at Talladega Superspeedway where Elliott won in the spring after leading 45 laps.

The DNF sets him 11th in points, seven points beneath the cutoff line.

“I don’t know where we’ll stack up,” Elliott said. “I assume we’ll have to win one of these next few weeks. If you ever make it to (Homestead-Miami Speedway), you’re going to have to win down there. I guess it’s a good opportunity to practice here these next few weeks.”

Contributing: NASCAR Wire Service & staff reports

Posted on by Staff Report

Joey Logano took the No. 22 Team Penske Ford to the garage before green flag for the NASCAR Playoffs race at Dover International Speedway on Sunday.

Logano brought the No. 22 down pit road before the start of the Round of 12 race because of a mechanical issue with the rear axle of the car. When the issue could not be resolved on pit road, Logano took the car to the garage.

RELATED: Elliott exits early at Dover

Logano, the defending Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series champion, entered the race in fourth place in the standings. Eight of the 12 playoff drivers will move on to the Round of 8 in two weeks following an elimination race at Kansas.

The Team Penske driver returned to the race — 23 laps down.

Posted on by Nick Giffen

The second round of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs kicks off at Dover International Speedway. The “Monster Mile” is a steeply banked, 1-mile oval with a concrete surface that features a modest incident rate of 20.1% since 2013. Notably, that number reduces to 14.8% during the seven high-downforce races in that time frame.

Track history plays a strong role in my statistical model, which is likely due to the fact that Dover is such a unique track. Additionally, weighing the high downforce era improves the out-of-sample predictive power of my model, so it gives extra weight to the 2013-2015 races, plus the first race of 2019.

My statistical model this weekend consists of the following data points:

• 10-lap average
• Track history
• Year-to-date performance
• Steep track performance (Dover, Bristol, Darlington, Homestead)

Because 15, 20, and even 30-lap practice data became available to the public just this year, I cannot use it in a historical model. But we can use that data as part of our intuition on how to evaluate driver performance.

With all that, here are my top bets to win Sunday’s Drydene 400.

RELATED: Updated winning odds

Kyle Larson +500

In the spring Dover race, there was a big five of Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott and Larson. Each of these drivers placed in the top five in average green flag speed. They also all brought their cars home for top-five finishes. Clint Bowyer was sixth in average green flag speed, but was three-tenths of a mile per hour slower than the other five, and only finished ninth.

Larson might have the car to beat this weekend and certainly is one of the three favorites across the industry. Most books have him in the +300 to +450 range, but MGM has him listed at +500. It’s hard to trust Larson, who is winless  in his last 75 starts, but this could be the weekend he snaps that streak.

Larson has five top-five finishes at Dover. Each of those finishes also corresponded with a 10-lap average inside the top seven. This weekend, Larson was quickest over 10 and 25 consecutive laps, and second to Harvick over 15 and 20 laps. In opening practice, Larson tied for the fastest five lap average, but did not make a longer run.

Harvick, Truex, and Larson are the favorites across the industry, and while Harvick is also listed at +500 at MGM, Larson has shorter odds at more books, and has finished better than Harvick in each of the last three steep-track races.

It’s always imperative to shop around for the best lines, but especially so with favorites. Breaking even on a +500 vs. a +350 bet means increasing the bet’s win rate by 5.6%. That’s about the same as going from a +9900 bet to a +1500 bet. I’d pass at +400, but anything longer is playable. Get the best number you can if you’re willing to make this bet.

Alex Bowman +2500

Bowman was the runner up at Dover in the spring, and didn’t fluke his way into that finish. He had the third-fastest green flag speed among all drivers during the race, behind only race winner Truex, and Harvick.

Bowman has only run at Dover three times for a highly-funded team, but last year’s two races were with the low downforce package. If we go back to 2014-2015 when there was more downforce on the car, Bowman was running with two underfunded teams. His 2015 result of 20th was one of two top-20 finishes he had at non-restrictor plate tracks in those two years. The other came at Bristol, another highly banked concrete track.

Bowman was also fast in practice, placing third over 10 consecutive laps in Happy Hour and fourth in the opening practice. Bowman has five career top-two finishes, all coming this year. He could be in line to push that to six. MGM and PointsBet both carry this generous line. There’s value here down to +1800.

Jimmie Johnson +2750

Johnson is an 11-time winner at Dover, but with only one since 2016. However, prior to that, Johnson won three of the six Dover races from 2013-2015, when more downforce was on the car.

In the first race at the Monster Mile this year, Johnson struggled to a 14th-place finish. Notably, he only practiced 16th quick over 10 consecutive laps in Happy Hour. This weekend, Johnson looks to have his old Dover mojo back. He placed second or third in every consecutive lap category in final practice, and was fourth and second respectively over five and 10 consecutive laps in the opening session.

The spring’s big five could turn into a big six with Johnson in the mix. My model don’t trust Johnson as much as Bowman because of Johnson’s struggles this year, but he’s not too far behind Bowman. There’s value here down to +2000.

Posted on by Pat DeCola

DOVER, Del. – One lap in, one was already out.

The NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs’ Round of 12 finale got interesting in a hurry Saturday at Dover International Speedway, seeing Brandon Jones eliminated from contention early and Justin Haley, John Hunter Nemechek and Ryan Sieg soon to follow.

On the opening lap of the Use Your Melon Drive Sober 200 at the Monster Mile, Jones was the unfortunate driver in the wrong spot at the wrong time, taking contact from a spinning teammate in Harrison Burton that was enough to end his day almost before it even began. Coming into the race one spot and 11 points shy of the final advancing spot, Jones didn’t get much chance to even try to overcome that deficit and will have to trophy hunt the rest of the year as he begins to put the pieces in place for next season.

RELATED: Full Dover race results

“I always try to find the positives with this kind of stuff. Obviously, none today,” Jones told NBCSN after being released from the infield care center. “But the good thing is, we can still go win one of these races. I think we can still get to fifth in points. You can’t do anything when these guys spin out.

“ … I don’t know man. I’ve had one race like this where I’ve wrecked at the start of the race, so these are tough. I know it’s going to be tough for my guys to rally back from them, but as I’ve mentioned, we’ve got some good tracks coming up. Texas (Motor Speedway) is on my mind. So maybe we will get there and I can win that track.”

Michael Annett entered in the eighth and final spot, and a strong, sixth-place run propelled him to the Round of 8, even if he was playing defense for most of the day at one of NASCAR’s most volatile tracks.

“Ton of relief (to advance),” Annett said on pit road after the race. “Obviously I have a ton of confidence in these JR Motorsports cars coming to Dover, but you’re also walking into the Monster Mile and there’s so many stupid things that can happen. I knew if we just ran our race we’d be fine, but there’s just the unknown … you’re kind of passive-aggressive on a deal like that.

“We had a goal when we came here and we accomplished it. I feel really good (about the Round of 8). Kind of what I’ve been saying all along, if we got through the first (round) we’re really confident about the round coming up. … it’s going to be a battle between the JR Motorsports camp but it’s going to be a lot of fun.”

As for the remaining trio to miss the cut, their reactions to their respective title hopes being dashed ranged from upset and angry to contentment and happy just to be here – all perhaps rightfully so.

Nemechek entered the race 10th in points, tied with Jones at 2,062 points apiece and 11 down from the bubble. An eighth-place run was not enough to make up ground, of course, but the GMS Racing driver thought he lost a viable shot at the win – and not by his doing.

Late in the race, the young driver was forced to come back down pit road after a routine stop because his crew failed to secure all his lug nuts, effectively ending his path to Victory Lane.

“We did everything that we needed to do, execution-wise. Had a loose wheel, didn’t get enough lug nuts on for one pit stop and it’s a team effort. Comes down to a team effort and it sucks,” Nemechek said “We gained points every stage, thought we were going to be good there at the end to gain some more but when we had to come down and put extra lug nuts on, pretty much killed our day. … Ended up being so far behind couldn’t make anything up. Frustrating day. … For sure (we had a shot.)”

Haley has shown contending speed at times this year but needed more than a solid finish after a rough start to the postseason with “bad luck” finishes of 17th at Richmond Raceway and 31st at Charlotte Motor Speedway’s Roval. The Kaulig Racing driver never quite gave the leaders a run for their money at the front of the field but still had an outside shot at the win as late as the final restart – something the young driver is proud of his team for.

“No (I’m not disappointed), I expected us not to make it going into (today),” Haley said. “We obviously put the best car on the table. I’ve had three weeks to get over the disappointment. We’ve had fifth-place speed this whole round, just had stuff happen. Glad we could finally put it together this race and show that we’re top-five capable cars. First two races in the round, just had bad luck out of our control. Not much we can do, but still got races to win and plenty of time to make it happen.”

As for Sieg, who entered the race 11th in points and 37 down from Annett, there’s nothing to hang his head about at all – and he wasn’t. The 10th-place Dover finish was his 10th of the season, more than he collected in his five-plus previous Xfinity seasons combined.

It was a career year for the 32-year-old and one to build on for 2020.

“Pretty happy with the whole year, just got to get a little bit more and try to take some more chances on our calls and improve our performances a little bit more also, but all-in-all a great season all year,” Sieg told NASCAR.com. “ … Just glad we were able to race with the big-budget teams. It’s a great day for us that we were right there with them.”

Posted on by Staff Report

DOVER, Del. – In his 100th NASCAR Xfinity Series start, Cole Custer conquered the Monster Mile.

Custer held off a hungry field of playoff contenders on a restart with seven laps to go and pulled away from Justin Allgaier to win the Use Your Melon Drive Sober 200 at Dover International Speedway on Saturday afternoon.

Custer, who claimed the victory as Dover celebrates its 50th anniversary, is the fifth Xfinity Series driver to win in their 100th start.

“I’ve wanted to win here so bad for so long,” Custer said. “I’ve been close a number of times but just to win the gold Monster (trophy) is unbelievable.”

DOVER: Official results | At-track gallery

Michael Annett claimed the last available spot in the Round of 8 as the first round of the NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs came to a close. Advancing along with Custer and Annett are Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Austin Cindric, Noah Gragson, Chase Briscoe and Justin Allgaier.

Eliminated from championship contention were John Hunter Nemechek, Justin Haley, Ryan Sieg and Brandon Jones.

Custer, Annett and Haley were the biggest benefactors of a caution with 23 laps to go that fell in the middle of green-flag pit stops that changed the complexion of the race.

Dillon Bassett spun at pit entrance on Lap 177, which brought out the yellow flag, leaving only Custer, Annett, Haley, Allgaier, Briscoe, Cindric and Zane Smith on the lead lap.

Custer maintained the lead on the Lap 185 restart only to see another caution displayed when Ray Black Jr. crashed in Turn 2, where Matt Mills and Stephen Leicht were also collected.

Luckily for Custer, the final caution didn’t limit him. He cleared Allgaier and Haley on the restart and pulled away swiftly for his seventh win of 2019, tying Bell for the most in the series this season.

“(The car) felt really good in practice,” Custer said. “I thought we had a good car. I don’t think it was everything we expected in the race. We kind of tried something a little bit different in this race but just (an) amazing pit call.”

The playoff drama began on the opening lap when both Reddick and Harrison Burton broke loose on the back straightaway. Reddick slapped the wall with the right side of his car and continued, but Burton wasn’t as lucky.

Burton spun toward the inside of the track and was clobbered by teammate Jones, lifting Burton’s No. 18 car off the ground. Both drivers were checked and released from the infield care center, but Jones’ playoff hopes ended there.

“There’s nothing that you can do about it,” Jones said after exiting the care center.

RELATED: Who’s in, who’s out

Joe Gibbs Racing’s luck worsened when Bell lost fuel pressure on Lap 15, shortly after brushing the wall off Turn 4. Bell finished 25th behind the wall 34 laps down.

The early cautions continued on Lap 21 when Nemechek spun Mike Harmon exiting Turn 4 onto the fronstretch.

That was the end of yellows for on-track incidents until Bassett spun on Lap 177.

Annett, who finished sixth after starting from the rear of the field due to an engine change, advanced out of the first round of the playoffs for the first time in his Xfinity career.

“I can’t say enough about these guys all the way through these playoffs,” Annett said. “To come from the back today is just a testament to the car they gave me.”

Nemechek finished in eighth place after an eventful race. A strong pit stop at the conclusion of Stage 2 allowed his No. 23 to exit pit road fourth. That effort went for naught after a loose lug nut forced Nemechek back to the pits.

“That’s why we’re standing here, I feel like,” Nemechek said. “It just put us behind the eight-ball. We were in good position all day and right here, we came out of the pits fourth, but we didn’t have enough lug nuts on the left rear.

“Had to come back down. You can’t have a loose wheel here at Dover. It’s just something that you don’t want to have under green. I think we got the margin down to minus-six or something like that after the first two stages and were executing like we needed to all day. We just haven’t been able to close this year.”

Rounding out the top five behind Custer were Allgaier, Cindric, Haley and Briscoe. Annett was sixth and his JR Motorsports teammate Noah Gragson was the last car on the lead lap in seventh. Nemechek, Smith and Sieg completed the top 10.

Posted on by RJ Kraft

Denny Hamlin is on the pole for Sunday’s Drydene 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Is the Joe Gibbs Racing driver, who has yet to win at Dover, worthy of a spot on your roster? How should you navigate the playoff game format? We’ve dissected the numbers to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration.

PLAY NOW: Set your lineup | How the game works | Tips to set your lineup

RJ Kraft’s Fantasy Live lineup for race day at Dover:
Playoff driver 1: Martin Truex Jr.
Playoff driver 2: Kevin Harvick
Non-playoff driver 1: Jimmie Johnson
Non-playoff driver 2: Kurt Busch
Garage: Kyle Larson

RELATED: Odds for Dover | Lap averages | Weekend preview

Analysis: Truex and Harvick have been two of the best cars at Dover in recent years. The No. 19 is the most recent Dover winner and the No. 4 has one of the best –if not the best — long run car for Sunday’s race. Both are starting inside the top four, so they are locked in. For the garage, I debated Larson verses Chase Elliott. Larson has been faster across the lap averages by a good bit this weekend but Elliott’s Dover history is stronger. I don’t feel great about leaving a driver with six top fives in seven Dover starts on the bench but that is what I am doing with the Hendrick Motorsports driver.

For the non-playoff picks, I am taking Johnson for one spot. He is starting 11th, but has been the best long-run car among all non-playoff drivers and he’s won here 11 times — a track record. For the other non-playoff spot, I debated Almirola, Erik Jones and Kurt Busch. All three qualified inside the top 10 but I didn’t love Jones’ lap averages. Busch and Almirola were pretty close on the 15- and 20-lap board, so I am giving a slight nod to the 2004 champion because I like his recent Dover stats a bit better.

For the bonus picks, I am taking Larson to win Stage 1 and Harvick the rest of the way with Toyota as the manufacturer as a safeguard against a strong Truex day or if Hamlin nabs the win from the pole in his 500th start.

Each week in this space, we’ll also highlight two Props Challenge items for players.

MORE: Need Props help? The Action Network has you covered | Play the Props Challenge today

1. Kyle Larson has an 8.0 average finish at Dover. Does he finish in the top 10 on Sunday? YES, on this prop. Larson has qualified in the top five six times at Dover and only finished outside the top 10 once. He lines up second on Sunday and the 1-mile track is one of his best on the circuit.

2. O/U 1.5 drivers lead at least 125 laps. The over has been hit twice in the past five Dover races including the spring race this year. The stages are laid out as 120-120-160. I think two drivers will lead at least 100 — that has happened four times in the past five races — but I’m not as convinced that two will hit over 125 laps led. This is a gut call and I’ll take the UNDER.

Posted on by Holly Cain

It was a friendly golf wager made good on the race track. Denny Hamlin began marking his 500th career Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race start this weekend with a record pole-winning speed Saturday afternoon at Dover (Del.) International Speedway.

And Hamlin earned his – and Toyota’s – second pole of the season by a mere .003-seconds over the very guy he made that all-in-fun wager with – Kyle Larson.

“I got him, I got him,’’ Hamlin said smiling after qualifying for Sunday’s Drydene 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). “I’m so happy I beat him. To have that lap there was a really good lap for us. I knew when we ran it, it was really solid.’’

Extremely solid.

Hamlin’s lap of 166.984 mph (21.559-seconds) in the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota was more than a second faster than the previous Dover qualifying record (165.960 mph/21.692-seconds) set by Chase Elliott in May.  Hamlin, Larson and third-place qualifier Martin Truex Jr. all broke the track record Saturday afternoon.

RELATED: Sunday’s race lineup | Full Dover schedule | No. 19 engineer ejected

It is Hamlin’s fourth pole at the Dover 1-miler – the most at any 1-mile track for him. The last time Hamlin won a pole position was at Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway in August – and he went on to win the race. Hamlin has never won at Dover, but was runner-up to Elliott in this race last year – one of four top-five runs at the track.

“This is probably as optimistic as I’ve ever been going into a Dover race simply because we’ve really devoted a lot of time to improving my technique around here,’’ said Hamlin, adding, “It just seems like in practice I’m really comfortable in the car and that’s not my usual MO here.’’

This is the first of three races that make up Round 2 in the Monster Energy Cup Series Playoffs. And all 12 of the drivers still championship-eligible qualified among the top 18.

Just behind Hamlin, Larson and Truex are fellow Playoff drivers Kevin Harvick, defending race winner Elliott and first-time playoff competitor William Byron in positions four-five-six on the starting grid.

Ryan Blaney (10th), Alex Bowman (12th), Joey Logano (14th) are the next best playoff drivers in the starting lineup. Brad Keselowski, Clint Bowyer and points leader Kyle Busch will start 16th-17th and 18th, respectively.

Larson smiled on pit road acknowledging how close he came to swiping the top qualifying position in his No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet. He remained optimistic that the near-miss was still a positive outcome in the big picture. Dover has been one of his best tracks, statistically-speaking. He has eight top-10 finishes in 11 starts – including a pair of runner-up finishes in 2016 and 2017. He was third at Dover in May.

Coincidentally, the only other time this season Larson started a race on the outside of Row 1 was at Bristol in August – again, right alongside Hamlin.

“I felt like I ran a good lap,’’ Larson said. “Three-hundredths of a second when you’re going that fast isn’t much.’’

His expectations for the race? “A lot of fun,’’ Larson said.

Posted on by Staff Report

The Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota of Martin Truex Jr. failed pre-qualifying inspection twice at Dover International Speedway, resulting in the ejection of one of the team’s engineers.

The violation came just before Saturday’s Busch Pole Qualifying for Sunday’s Drydene 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM) at the 1-mile track. In addition to the removal of a team engineer, Truex’s No. 19 team will also forfeit 15 minutes of practice time in the series’ next race weekend at Talladega Superspeedway (Oct. 11-13). The No. 19 will start third on the grid in Sunday’s race.

RELATED: Full schedule for Dover | Do playoffs favor youth or experience?

Saturday’s session serves as the final inspection before Sunday’s 400-lap, 400-miler opening race of the Round of 12 in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Truex won two races in the opening Round of 16 and enters Sunday’s race second in the point standings.

Posted on by Pat DeCola

DOVER, Del. – There’s only one guarantee in the NASCAR Playoffs: palpable, lay-awake-at-night pressure.

We saw it mount last weekend in Charlotte Motor Speedway’s raucous Bank of America Roval 400, we’ll see it Sunday at the track with the literal giant monster looming outside to illustrate its beastly nature, and it’s only going to ramp up over the course of the next month and a half as the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs roll on ahead on the road to Miami.

We also witnessed both ends of the age spectrum prevail in the three-race Round of 16, with one of the oldest drivers (Martin Truex Jr.) and one of the youngest (Chase Elliott) snagging wins, so it begs the question – who’s better equipped to handle the playoff pressure, youth or experience?

Turns out, we’ve got some mixed opinions … but they’re all feeling the pressure, regardless of age.

“There is a reason most of these drivers are bald. I don’t know if it is the helmet, but it might be the stress,” reigning champion Joey Logano joked Friday morning at Dover International Speedway, site of Sunday’s Drydene 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, Sirius XM). “There is a lot you have to deal with as a driver and as a leader. There is a lot that you have to overcome and figure out. The pressure is on this time of year and it either makes you better or you are going to fall apart.

RELATED: Full Dover schedule

“It kind of depends on the person. A lot of times you have to figure out what works for you. What works for Kyle Busch or Jimmie Johnson or Brad (Keselowski) or whoever is different. You have to go through these high-pressure moments a few times to understand what works for you. That is why the experienced guys have such an advantage, they have been through it before and know how to handle it and the pressure actually makes them better. I feel like we are in a good spot for that reason being in this spot before.”

Flash back to Sunday, when Elliott – the third-youngest driver to make the playoffs and second-youngest remaining – put together one of NASCAR’s most memorable runs to rebound from an admittedly boneheaded late-race mistake to overtake some of NASCAR’s most-established talent and propel himself to the Round of 12 with a head of steam.

… Not exactly a strong example of youth and inexperience caving to the playoff pressure there, and Elliott thinks there’s nothing to the notion that notches on a belt lead to winner’s stickers in Victory Lane.

“That’s (Joey’s) opinion and he’s entitled to it. So, whatever makes him feel good,” Elliot said Friday. “I think it benefits (drivers that) do their job the best.”

And now, for the tiebreaker: what does Truex – the 2017 champ, winner of the first two Round of 16 races and second-oldest driver remaining in the playoffs – have to say?

“I don’t know. I think it could go either way. I think it depends on where you are at with your team at the moment. I think experience helps for sure, especially if you get in a bad situation or your back is against a wall and you need to keep your head straight. Things like that,” Truex said Friday. “A guy like Chase and his team – they have been here quite a few years as well. It’s definitely easier when you have done it before. When you understand the pressure and how teams the approach the playoffs is different than the regular season, but I think everybody left in the playoffs is good and they can handle it.”

Maybe that’s just it, then.

A decade and a half behind the wheel? Yet to eclipse 150 career Cup starts? Doesn’t matter – as long as you can drive.

Still, though, it’s evident that if even a champion driver that dominated the opening round is feeling the pressure … they all are. It just comes down to who can keep their cool for 10 weeks and who can find ways to stay focused.

“I can’t tell you (what works for me),” joked Logano, who was fastest in Friday’s opening practice. “I think it is just finding ways to enjoy it and have fun. If you look at the past, the playoffs have been the times we have scored the most wins and most points throughout these 10 races.

“That helps with confidence to fire away at these playoffs and not even really think about (the pressure).”