LONG POND, Pa. — Ahead of Sunday’s Gander RV 400 at Pocono Raceway (3 p.m. ET on NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), NASCAR’s Senior Vice President of Competition Scott Miller addressed the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series competitors about restarts in the drivers’ meeting.

“We haven’t gone over these in a while so (we) thought this would be a good time to bring these back up,” Miller said. “We expect the leader to maintain constant speed once he brings the field into the restart zone. We expect the second-place car not to lay back on the leader more than the door numbers. And if the second row’s laying back trying to affect what’s going on the front row, that’s also going to be a violation.

“We need to make sure that we are closed up, all the way through the field, not laying back. If we do those things, I think we’ll have clean restarts. It’s what’s been going on for the last few years and was established with the group of drivers and a group from NASCAR. It’s been working well. We haven’t gone over it in a while so I thought this was a good time to bring it up.”

RELATED: Starting lineup at Pocono | Multiple cars fail inspection 

The reminder came a week after Aric Almirola was warned during a restart of New Hampshire’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 toward the end of Stage 2 in which Almirola ended up winning the stage. Drivers in the Gander Outdoors Truck Series were also given a similar reminder Saturday before the Gander RV 150 at Pocono.

NASCAR’s Executive Vice President and Chief Racing Development Officer Steve O’Donnell indicated earlier in the week on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio that restarts would be addressed going into Pocono.

“We chose not to make the call but we’ve got to go back and review it,” O’Donnell said. “Review the speeds and I think you’ll see us address restarts heading into Pocono and remind the drivers what we expect, as well.”

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series makes its return to Pocono Raceway for the second of two races in 2019. Kyle Busch won the season’s first race at the “Tricky Triangle.” Busch, Kyle Larson and William Byron were the only drivers to reach double-digits in both laps led and fastest laps.

Notably, Larson wrecked his car in practice and despite qualifying in 29th, he will start at the rear of the field. Chase Elliott (crash, backup car) and Bubba Wallace (engine change) will also head to the rear after 23rd and 26th place qualifying efforts, respectively.

Every week I build a statistical model for the race. Traditionally, these metrics are the most predictive of Pocono race results during the Gen-6 era (2013-present):

  • Pocono driver rating (last eight races)
  • Flat track quality pass percentage (last eight races)
  • Year-to-date quality pass percentage
  • Practice times
  • Qualifying position

Using these data points, I’ve found three value bets to win today’s Gander Outdoors 400.

*All odds as of 11:00 p.m. ET on Saturday. A quick explainer on the odds below: A $100 wager on +1200 would profit $1200.


Joey Logano +1200

Logano ranks third in my model behind co-favorites Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, but is currently listed as the sixth-most likely driver to win at the Westgate and seventh-most likely at Caesars properties. Logano’s price is likely dampened by the fact that his track history isn’t stellar, but if we take a deeper dive, he actually has some very strong track history points in his favor.

In the first Pocono race this year, Logano had the fifth-best quality pass percentage, the sixth-best percentage running in the top 15 and finished seventh.

Back in 2014, when the aerodynamic package was most similar to this year’s package, Logano had a third-place finish in the second Pocono race, and had the third-best quality pass percentage and was running up front most of the race until his engine let go on lap 150.

Logano was inside the top five in both five- and 10-lap average in final practice, less than 0.3 mph off the leaders in both metrics. Starting from the second position, Logano should have the all-important track position and a premium pit stall.

Additionally, Logano has two wins in the bag which means his strategy will simply be to race for the win, instead of worrying about accumulating stage points.

There is value on Logano as long as you can get him at +1000 or longer.

Denny Hamlin +1500

MGM is notably slow to adjust its NASCAR odds after practice and qualifying, and they haven’t adjusted Hamlin’s odds from his 15-1 opener despite an incredibly strong showing this weekend. Hamlin was fourth in five-lap average, and second in 10-lap average in final practice.

In the first Pocono race just eight weeks ago, Hamlin had the third-fastest average green-flag speed, behind only Kyle Busch and Erik Jones, before finishing sixth. He also finished fourth and ninth in 2014 under a similar aerodynamic package.

Importantly, Hamlin won at Pocono four times prior to the track’s repave in 2011, including a sweep of the 2006 races when the track surface was in its 12th year after its 1995 repave. The track surface is now nine years old.

To see how egregious the MGM line is, just look at the Westgate SuperBook, where Hamlin is listed at +800. However, seven drivers have shorter odds than Hamlin at MGM.

Between the aerodynamic package, the practice times and the track age, Hamlin shakes out fourth in my statistical model among all drivers. I’d bet him down to +1200.

Kyle Larson +5000

Earlier in the week I bet Larson at +2200 on the heels of his strong showing at the “Tricky Triangle” earlier this year. Larson also finished fifth in the first Pocono race during his rookie campaign in 2014.

However, a crash in practice relegated him to his backup car and only 10 total laps in final practice, pushing his odds down to +5000 at William Hill. He was only 24th in practice, and qualified only 29th, creating the impetus for his plummeting odds.

Since he’s starting in the rear, look for his team to make some strategic moves to get him track position. Strategy plays come with a wider range of outcomes, but since we’re only concerned about the win on this bet, we can discount the additional downside in favor of potential upside from a strategic call.

This is definitely a long-shot bet on an extremely talented driver, but I like a small play here. Larson has won five times in 203 career Cup races, about one in 40. However, Pocono is in the top-third of his tracks if you compare his driver rating year-by-year at each track to his season-long performance.

As such, I like betting him down to +4000.

LONG POND, Pa. — Kevin Harvick is on the pole for the Gander RV 400 on Sunday at Pocono Raceway (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Does the 2014 champion — who has yet to win at Pocono — merit a spot in your Fantasy Live lineup? We’ve dissected the numbers to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration. Remember that inspection Sunday morning made the starting lineup official.

PLAY NOW: Set your lineup | How the game works | Tips to set your lineup

RJ Kraft’s Fantasy Live lineup for race day at Pocono:
1. Joey Logano
2. Aric Almirola
3. Erik Jones
4. Martin Truex Jr.
5. Daniel Suarez
Garage: William Byron

UPDATE: Byron’s No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, Johnson’s No. 48 and Austin Dillon’s No. 3 were among nine cars that failed pre-race inspection.

RELATED: Odds for New Hampshire | 10-lap averages | Weekend preview

Analysis: Two of my original lineup — Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson — pulled out backup cars before opening practice was finished on Saturday. With both of those drivers going to the rear, I needed to make some changes.

Logano, Jones and Byron stay in the lineup. The reigning series champion has shown speed this weekend, and I wanted to have one Penske car in the lineup. Jones has a solid history at Pocono with three top fives in five starts. Byron topped the 10-lap board and while he is going to the rear, remember this: He scored stage points from starting at the back at New Hampshire and finished sixth in this race last summer after starting 38th.

Stage points are part of what drove me to the Almirola play. He’s in the best spot among drivers without a win, but the 10 camp showed at New Hampshire they are willing to play for a big points day over the race win. I have been reluctant to trust Suarez in my lineup over the past two months, but I like the qualifying spot (seventh) and the fact that he should be all-in on scoring stage points. Plus, he has a favorable history at Pocono. I am putting Truex in my lineup because I like the lap times he had in practice and I have the uses to take the plunge. Denny Hamlin was also a consideration for me, but I’d prefer to have one extra driver without a win that could be a heavy hitter for stage points. Hamlin will factor into one of my bonus picks though. I wanted to use Brad Keselowski here based on his Pocono record, but the 2 team seemed really off in practice. Would it surprise me if they grabbed a top 10? No, but I want top fives when I use the 2012 champion.

For the bonus picks, I am taking Jones to win Stage 1, Hamlin in Stage 2 and Harvick for the race win.

Each week in this space, we’ll also highlight two Props Challenge items for players.

MORE: Need Props help? The Action Network has you covered | Play the Props Challenge today

1. O/U 3.5 drivers will score 10.5 stage points. In the June race, four drivers scored over 10.5 stage points — two drivers that have yet to win and two that already had wins on the season. With four winless drivers slated to start in the top 10, I expect those drivers to be on the hunt for stage points so I am taking the OVER on this one.

2. Kurt Busch leads all active drivers with 14 top-five finishes at Pocono. Does he finish in the top five on Sunday? Busch had the 12th-best 10-lap average in final practice, but he was second in final practice on the single-lap board. His last top five at Pocono came in the spring race in 2017. Throw in that his lone top five in the past month was the Kentucky win and I believe the trends say he will NOT finish in the top five.

Nine cars failed pre-race technical inspection ahead of Sunday’s Gander RV 400 (3 p.m. ET on NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at Pocono Raceway, most notably the No. 3 of Austin Dillon, the No. 48 of Jimmie Johnson and the No. 24 of William Byron. Dillon’s No. 3 failed twice, and engineer Ryan Sparks has been ejected from his team.

The full list of inspection failures includes: The Nos. 3, 12, 15, 24, 27, 34, 32, 37 and 48 of Austin Dillon, Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain, William Byron, Reed Sorenson, Michael McDowell, Corey LaJoie, Chris Buescher and Jimmie Johnson, respectively.

The No. 3 Richard Childress Racing entry failed when NASCAR Officials found the right rear of the car to be too low. Dillon’s qualifying time was disallowed, meaning he will have to forfeit his fifth-place starting spot and move to the rear of the field before the green flag.

RELATED: Unofficial starting lineup

Johnson’s No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports entry also failed in the OSS inspection station. The seven-time Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series champion’s sixth-place qualifying time has been disallowed. Meanwhile, Byron’s No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports car will lose its original eighth-place starting spot.

The No. 12 Team Penske Ford of Blaney also failed and will give up the 20th starting spot, while McDowell will lose 17th after the No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford failed. The No. 37 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet of Buescher will forfeit the 28th starting spot, and the No. 32 GoFas Racing Ford of Corey LaJoie gives up the 30th starting place. Ross Chastain’s No. 15 Premium Motorsports Chevrolet and Reed Sorenson’s No. 27 Premium Motorsports Chevrolet forfeit the 35th and 36th starting spots, respectively.

Kevin Harvick’s No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford passed pre-race inspection and he will start on the pole to lead the field to the green.

This story will be updated.

NEWTON, Iowa — Chase Briscoe has been chasing wins all season in the NASCAR Xfinity Series.

They proved bitterly elusive — until Saturday’s U.S. Cellular 250 at Iowa Speedway.

The driver of the No. 98 Ford Performance Ford shrugged off frustration and instead churned up smoke with a jubilant, long-awaited series of burnouts that preceded his first trip to Victory Lane this season.

RELATED: Complete Iowa results

Briscoe’s sweeping slide job past longtime race leader Christopher Bell, who paced the field for a dominant 235 laps, ensured the physical, caution-marred race would end in a raucous celebration, not head-shaking and second-guessing.

And maybe a run toward the top of the standings, which has been dominated by points leader Tyler Reddick, Bell and Cole Custer — the so-called “Big Three.”

“It’s nice, for sure, to kind of silence everybody,” said Briscoe, who ended Bell’s two-race win streak at Iowa while notching his first win on the racy 0.875-mile track. “We definitely are still not near where we need to be, but I feel like we’ve been way closer, these last couple weeks especially. So we’ve still got to get better if we’re gonna beat the ‘Big Three,’ but I feel like we’re slowly getting into that conversation of being that fourth guy.”

For most of Saturday’s race, Bell appeared headed for another breezy victory at Iowa, but worn-out tires doomed him down the stretch as Briscoe’s grip and gumption took over.

“He did a good job and did everything he needed to win the race,” a dejected Bell told MRN Radio.

RELATED: Updated points standings

Bell cruised to wins in the first two 60-lap stages and has now led more laps at Iowa than any other series driver (668) despite only having five starts at the track.

“I felt like we were a second-place car all day,” said Briscoe, who stayed out when Bell pitted with 100 laps to go, allowing him to pit later and run on fresher tires down the stretch. “The 20 was the class of the field.”

Briscoe, who started alongside Bell on the front row, overcame an early pit road penalty to earn his first win at Iowa and snare his third straight top-six effort after a 35th-place finish at Daytona International Speedway.

“It was a lot of fun,” said Briscoe, who notched his second career series win and remains seventh in the point standings. “We were definitely racing real hard. That was beating and banging — and that’s about as good as it gets.”

John Hunter Nemechek finished third and led six laps while battling in the top five most of the day.

“To finish third and say you’re disappointed is pretty good I guess,” Nemechek said. “We needed this run after the last few weeks we’ve had.”

Briscoe’s banner day contrasted sharply with one of the Big Three’s series of misfortunes.

RELATED: Trouble for Custer

Custer ran in the top five for a majority of the race until a penalty for speeding on pit road dropped him to the rear of the field. He then hit the wall on Lap 160, prompting a trip to the garage that ended his day. He finished 29th and remains third in points, behind Bell and Reddick, who finished fifth Saturday.

“I was mad at myself for getting a speeding penalty and putting us back there,” Custer told MRN after being evaluated at the infield care center. “Frustrating.”

Saturday proved anything but for Briscoe, who had battled Bell at Iowa many times — but mainly online, not on the track.

“We’ve been racing online against each other for probably 10 years,” Briscoe said. “We used to run Iowa all the time in the Xfinity car and have battles like that, so it was fun to do it for real this time.”

To hear Kevin Harvick tell it, the undisguised animosity he once felt for Kyle Busch has mellowed over the years.

“Oh, man, I wanted to rip Kyle Busch’s head off for a long time, and now I enjoy being around Kyle and racing with Kyle,” Harvick said on Saturday morning at Pocono Raceway. “And the reason I think that is, for me, there’s a respect that comes with what he does on the race track, so I enjoy beating Kyle.

“I know Kyle enjoys beating me, and I enjoy racing Kyle, but I also understand that when it’s all said and done, he’s going to be one of the greatest that goes through the sport.”

RELATED: Unofficial Pocono starting lineup

Busch believes the turnaround started in 2014 when Harvick moved to Stewart-Haas Racing and when Harvick’s son, Keelan, was born. Busch also thinks the surge in social media has had an effect on quelling rivalries in the sport, rather than enhancing them.

“Now you have people on their computers, on their cell phones, on whatever all day long talking about it or whatever with not just one, two, three people at their job site, but hundreds and thousands on their social media platform and the voice just gets louder and becomes more annoying,” Busch said.

“Got to mind your p’s and q’s a little bit more and kind of let it die quietly at the race track. When it picks up, because you run into someone else, and then it picks up again, it starts all over. You try to squash it, I guess.”

In Harvick’s current view, it’s perhaps best not to make enemies in the first place. His prime example? Jimmie Johnson.

“Did Jimmie Johnson have a beef with anybody?” Harvick asked rhetorically. “I don’t think so. That’s probably why he won seven championships. He had this grudge thing figured out long before I did, so it’s a different world.”

No practice made perfect Saturday at Pocono Raceway.

Without the benefit of a mock qualifying run in practice, Kevin Harvick nevertheless made a decisive run to the pole for Sunday’s Gander RV 400 at the “Tricky Triangle” (3 p.m. ET on NBCSN, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

UPDATE: Harvick pole confirmed; multiple cars fail inspection

Qualifying near the end of the session, Harvick navigated the 2.5-mile distance in 51.707 seconds (174.058 mph), beating out second-place qualifier Joey Logano (173.377 mph) by a whopping .203 seconds to secure his first Busch Pole Award at Pocono, his fourth of the season and the 29th of his career.

“We didn’t do a qualifying run because we were just scrambling a little bit in race trim and trying to get our car right in race trim,” said Harvick, who claimed his first victory of the season last Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. “Our (Stewart-Haas Racing) teammates did some qualifying runs, and we tried to match some of the things they did and adapt and adjust from there.

“In the end, sometimes it’s better to just wing it, and these guys do a good job when you’re scrambling and just winging it. So it was a good day today, and hopefully we can keep it rolling tomorrow.”

RELATED: Unofficial qualifying results | Full weekend schedule

Harvick’s teammate, Aric Almirola, qualified third at 173.164 mph, as Ford drivers took the top the spots on the grid. Fourth-place qualifier Erik Jones (173.110 mph) had the fastest Toyota, and fifth-place Austin Dillon (172.659 mph) led the Chevrolet contingent.

Coming off consecutive third-place finishes in his last two races, Jones thought his lap might stand up for the pole — before the three Fords eclipsed his speed.

“I thought with that lap we would have it,” Jones said. “That’s kind of frustrating. We have a fast car, and I thought we had a shot at the pole. It’s kind of frustrating, but we are starting up front either way, so we’ll make a good day of it.

“We were good in race trim and I was pretty happy with it. That’s always a good feeling.”

Jones is 14th in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series standings, a tenuous 28 points inside the cut line for the playoffs with five races left in the regular season.

RELATED: Jones aggressive in playoff push

Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch (winner of the last two Pocono races), William Byron, Kurt Busch and Daniel Suarez qualified sixth through 10th, respectively.

Johnson and Suarez are currently tied for 17th in the Cup standings, 17 points behind 16th-place Clint Bowyer, who holds the last playoff-eligible position and who qualified 16th Saturday.

LONG POND, Pa. — Coming into the Gander Outdoors Truck Series Gander RV 150 at Pocono Raceway, Stewart Friesen looked to be in a comfortable spot to point his way into the eight-driver playoff. On the other end, Harrison Burton appeared in need of a win or some help to close the gap on the cutline.

Fast forward roughly two hours — with a third-place finish, Stage 2 win and a 52-point day for Burton combined with a Lap 1 exit for Friesen — and the gap has shrunk considerably (down to 13 points) with two races left in the regular season.

RELATED: Chastain scores Pocono win | Full race results

Friesen, who entered the race second in the point standings and 60 points ahead of Burton, spun and wrecked on the opening lap, collecting Anthony Alfredo in the process. The damage was too much and he finished last — 32nd on the day.

“It sucks. I don’t even know how to put it in words. It’s that frustrating,” Friesen said.

The result left Friesen as the last driver in the provisional eight-driver playoff field with Eldora and Michigan remaining before the field is set.

“We’ll just go race as hard as we can,” Friesen said. “Whatever happens, happens. We’ll try as hard as we can to win a race and it is what it is.”

As frustrating as Friesen’s day was, Burton’s was inversely fruitful. His third-place run continued a stretch where the 18-year-old has come into his own in the series with four top-five finishes in the past five races and a rise to fifth in the point standings. Because of wins by drivers behind him in the standings, that leaves him as the first driver on the wrong side of the cutline.

RELATED: Updated series standings

The early exit of Friesen also helped shape the strategy of Burton’s No. 18 Kyle Busch Motorsports team. After finishing third in Stage 1, crew chief Mike Hillman Jr. elected to have the young driver stay out to score his first stage win of the season and bag an additional 10 points on the day.

“That definitely affected the decision making,” Burton said on pit road after the race. “I think we probably would have pitted under green there coming from second and not gotten the stage win and set ourselves up for the win at the end. We almost won anyway. We were coming hard — needed a couple more laps at the end.”

Now, with two races to go in the regular season, Burton finds himself in a spot where he might not have to win to get in — although the recent results suggest that victory may not be far off.

For the son of 21-time Cup winner and NBC broadcaster Jeff Burton, the mission is simple.

“I’m gunning for a spot in the playoffs and once we get there, I think everyone should look out,” Burton said.

LONG POND, Pa. — Erik Jones’ second straight third-place finish and his fifth of the season seemed to get lost amid his mid-race contact with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. last weekend at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

That was, in part, due to Stenhouse firing off in a post-incident interview, saying: “The 20 just ran over us there. He’s gotten me a couple times now. He’ll have one coming at some point when he’s trying to make the playoffs.”

Those words were certainly pointed, but Jones indicated that there’s no lingering animosity between the Roush Fenway Racing driver and him following a mid-week chat with the Mississippi native.

“I saw Ricky this week and talked to him,” Jones told NASCAR.com on Saturday at Pocono Raceway, site of this weekend’s Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race, the Gander RV 400 (3 p.m. ET on NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

“I feel like we’re OK. I understand why he was frustrated. I think he understands why I was frustrated at that point in the race, as well, once you go back and look at it. I think we had a good talk. Ricky and I have had a couple of run-ins at the track over the last couple of years. Unfortunately, I didn’t want to end the guy’s day, but it was kind of a racing deal and I think we both understand where we stand on that issue.”

Now the page turns to Pocono where Jones led final practice. Jones comes into this race with seven top 10s in his last 10 races and sits 28 points above the cutline in a quest to make the playoffs for the second consecutive season in the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. He’s climbed four spots in the standings in the past two races.

RELATED: Playoff Watch | Bubble Watch: Poco-NO or Poco-YES for drivers not locked in

The 2.5-mile Pennsylvania track is as a great opportunity for the 23-year-old to further improve his playoff standing. Among drivers in Sunday’s field, Jones holds the best average finish (9.6) and has three top fives and four top 10s in five Cup starts at the “Tricky Triangle.”

“It’s definitely a place we come to that I feel confident about and a place where we can win and contend,” Jones said. “We had a shot here the last time we were here on the last restart — just couldn’t quite get the push we needed and the run we needed to clear Kyle (Busch). I always feel good coming here. We always contend and it’s been rare that we don’t have speed and the strategy that we run usually puts us up front with an opportunity. Always exciting and definitely had it circled to come back and contend.”

In his third-place finish in June and his fifth-place result in this race last year, Jones and crew chief Chris Gayle eschewed stage points to set themselves up better to contend for the win. Their final stop in June saw Gayle get bold in taking no tires, and Jones has noticed his crew chief raising the aggressive thinking even further with the playoff push in full swing.

“New Hampshire was a great show of that for us — just taking the two tires (in Stage 1), taking no tires at the end,” Jones said. “Chris has done a good job of being confident in himself and being confident in me and the car that we can maintain on two or no tires. Pocono’s going to be another big one for that. I think you’ll see probably more aggressive calls throughout the field but I’ve definitely seen Chris step up the aggression.”

In the past two races at Kentucky and New Hampshire, Jones has scored 18 total stage points en route to back-to-back third-place finishes. Coming into those races, he had just 43 stage points on the season.

But with six races left before the 16-driver playoff field is finalized, does the calculus at Pocono – a track that tends to play out like a road course when it comes to strategy — change a bit with Jones above the provisional cutline?

“It’s a tough call,” Jones said. “If you feel like you can win the race, you’re going to have to kind of go for it — but we also need stage points. We didn’t do a good job this year really of getting stage points and these last few weeks we have.

“We’ve gotten ourselves to a more comfortable spot in the playoff picture. We still have to build that cushion and we have a chance strategy-wise to get more stage points. If we have an opportunity to finish in the top three of a stage, then I think we’d probably take that and hope that it’s going to work out and lead us back into contention in the race. If we have a shot (at the win), if we have a dominant car, we feel like then we’ll probably go for the win.”