Posted on by Nick Giffen

After a wild race at Daytona, where Justin Haley won as one of the biggest underdogs in NASCAR history, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to some normalcy with a Saturday night race at Kentucky Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Kentucky is a traditional 1.5-mile oval that was repaved and reconfigured before the 2016 season. That places it among the newest track surfaces, making it fast and smooth, with relatively little tire wear. That will make track position important.

RELATED: Best matchup bets | Last-minute fantasy advice

However, don’t over-rely on practice times. The final practice came in the heat of the day, but the race is at night, where cooler temperatures and higher speeds will yield a bigger draft. Some of the best 1.5-mile racing under the current aero package has occurred under the lights.

There’s an abundance of 1.5-mile data available this year, including recent night races at Kansas, Charlotte, and the delayed early evening finish at Chicagoland.We’ll rely on that, plus some on-track and track history data to handicap today’s field.

As usual at 1.5-mile tracks, it’s tough to bet on anyone outside of the favorites to win. However, one interesting note: The Big 3 of Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex Jr. have yet to win at a 1.5-mile track in 2019.

Here are my two favorite outright bets for the Quaker State 400.

All odds as of 7:30 a.m. ET on Saturday. A quick explainer on the odds below: A $100 wager on +700 would profit $700, while a $10 bet on +2000 would profit $200.

Brad Keselowski +700

Kyle Busch heads into the race as the betting favorite at +350, which is too low to bet. Harvick is second at +600 across most books, including the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, but I’m not comfortable with his 1.5-mile record in 2019, with no finishes better than fourth. That leaves Keselowski as the driver among the favorites I think is worth a wager.

Keselowski already has two wins at 1.5-mile tracks (Atlanta and Kansas), a second place at Las Vegas, and a top five at the most recent 1.5-mile track at Chicagoland. He also won the first race at Kentucky after its reconfiguration in 2016. That gives him some solid history heading into the weekend.

His weekend performance so far backs up that history. He was fourth in 10-lap average in final practice, and third in the cooler opening practice session. Keselowski also has impressive short-run speed, qualifying third and posting the third-best time over five laps in Happy Hour.

It’s thin value when you’re looking at favorites at 1.5-mile tracks, so I wouldn’t bet Keselowski at any odds shorter than +700.

Denny Hamlin +2000

After the Big 3, plus the Team Penske teammates of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, Hamlin might be the best of the rest at Kentucky. MGM is listing Hamlin in a 20-1 group that includes Clint Bowyer, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez and Aric Almirola. Those four drivers have a combined two career wins at 1.5-mile tracks (Bowyer in 2012 at Charlotte and Bowman this year at Chicagoland).

Hamlin, meanwhile, has eight 1.5-mile wins, including one this year at Texas as a 30-1 long shot. Texas is significant, because it was repaved a year after Kentucky, making it comparable in tire wear.

Hamlin has also been strong in practice this weekend. In final practice, he moved from 10th, to fifth, to fourth as the number of laps increased from five to 10 to 15, showing his strength over the long run. And maybe more importantly, he was tops among all drivers in 10-lap average in the cooler opening practice session. That could translate to night racing.

With Hamlin’s long-run pace, he’s a nice complement to Keselowski, who seems to have a better short-run car. He’s a steal at this price, and I’d bet him down to +1600 to win given everything he has going for him this weekend.

Posted on by RJ Kraft

UPDATE: The No. 6 of Ryan Newman and the No. 77 of Quin Houff failed inspection on Saturday at Kentucky. Both cars passed on the second time through.

Daniel Suarez is on the provisional pole for the Quaker State 400 on Saturday at Kentucky Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Does the Stewart-Haas Racing driver merit a spot in your Fantasy Live lineup? We’ve dissected the numbers to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration. We’ve also included alternates to plug into your lineup if one of the planned cars for your lineup fails post-qualifying/pre-race inspection on Saturday.

PLAY NOW: Set your lineup | How the game works | Tips to set your lineup

RJ Kraft’s Fantasy Live lineup for race day at Kentucky:
1. Brad Keselowski
2. Kurt Busch
3. Martin Truex Jr.
4. Kyle Busch
5. William Byron
Garage: Aric Almirola

Alternates to swap in if any of the above fail post-qualifying/pre-race inspection (in order and in one instance, very specific): Chase Elliott, Joey Logano (if any of the 2-18-19 go to the back), Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Daniel Suarez.

RELATED: Odds for Kentucky | 10-lap averages | Weekend preview

Analysis: I’m sticking with the bulk of my original lineup heading into inspection. We have eight races left so by and large it’s go time with little need to hold back — unless you are down to two uses on a driver (like one that drives the No. 4 — more on that below). I am in a good spot on uses with Keselowski, Truex and Kyle Busch. Keselowski has won here three times and looks pretty strong this weekend. Busch has two wins here and is usually in the top five. Truex has won the last two Kentucky races and he and crew chief Cole Pearn have a knack for delivering in races that transition from day to night. Byron has been a solid performer of late with a knack for stage points, so I’d like to ride the hot hand.

I was planning on riding the Hendrick wave pretty hard for this race, but the averages and starting spots were underwhelming to me. So instead of Elliott and Alex Bowman, I’m going with Almirola and Kurt Busch. Almirola has been a non-factor in fantasy for the past two months, but I love the starting spot and will be banking on stage points from him. If he fails to nab any stage points, he will stay in the garage barring any incidents involving the rest of my lineup. Busch gets my other spot because he’s been super consistent on the 1.5-mile tracks all year and I like the averages he’s had (h/t@SteveLetarte). I am somewhat low on uses with the 2004 champion, but outside of Bristol, I don’t have a track really marked for him as a must.

I’ve gotten some questions on whether or not to play Suarez. I know the final practice numbers and the provisional pole win would say you absolutely play him, but the body of work for him this season on 1.5-mile tracks is extremely suspect. He has scored more than 25 points twice (Atlanta and Texas) and over 30 points once (Texas). In the last three 1.5-milers, he’s averaging 18.3 points per race. If this were earlier in the season, I’d be more apt to take the plunge, but with eight races to go, I’m going with drivers I have more faith in knowing there’s not much to hold back for at this point. If enough of my lineup saw their qualifying times tossed out due to an inspection failure and Suarez’s No. 41 passed, I’d give the play consideration.

One instance where I am holding back is Kevin Harvick. While he does have the most points this season on 1.5-mile tracks, I am down to two uses and I believe Michigan and Darlington are better tracks to utilize the 2014 champ. That said, if I had at least three uses available, he’d be in my lineup. We’ve talked before about stacking your bonus picks with a driver you may have limited usage with and that is what I will do with Harvick. I have the Stewart-Haas driver winning Stage 2 and the race, with Keselowski taking Stage 1.

Each week in this space, we’ll also highlight two Props Challenge items for players.

MORE: Need Props help? The Action Network has you covered | Play the Props Challenge today

1. O/U 18.5 lead changes. Past Kentucky results would tell you to take the under. The 2019 racing/rules package would say the opposite. Every 1.5-mile race this season has hit over this mark. The Kansas race two months ago under the lights (much like Kentucky in terms of time of day, same race length) had 23 lead changes. I think those two stats are more accurate barometers to go on and so I will take the OVER.

2. At least five drivers will score 42 or more points. This one is a little tricker than I first thought. I initially thought yes but some studying of the numbers disputed that. It’s only happened once this year on a 1.5-mile track and that was the Coca-Cola 600, which had an extra stage (and more opportunity to earn additional points), so that’s a bit of an outlier. The 2019 data shows that this typically is a three- to four-driver mark that is hit, not five. With that in mind, I am going NO on this one.

Posted on by Reid Spencer

Christopher Bell was dominant in the daytime, but when the sun set Friday over Kentucky Speedway, Cole Custer turned out the lights on his NASCAR Xfinity Series competition.

Under the lights at the end of a 104-lap green-flag run to the conclusion of the Alsco 300, Custer’s No. 00 Ford crossed the finish line 1.651 seconds ahead of Bell’s No. 20 Toyota. Custer had taken the lead from Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Chase Briscoe on Lap 111 of 200 and held it the rest of the way, save for three laps during a cycle of green-flag pit stops midway through the final run.

Bell charged from fifth to second after a restart on Lap 97 but had nothing for Custer at the end.

“It’s been unbelievable,” said Custer, who won for the first time at Kentucky and the fifth time this season, breaking a tie with Bell for most in the series. “This one just goes to my team. That car was just unbelievable, and they knew exactly what to do with it when the track changed, and I was just lucky to drive it there at the end.”

RELATED: Recap Custer’s win in 162 seconds

The victory was the seventh of Custer’s career, it was in doubt only when Custer pitted on Lap 151, three laps after Bell had come to pit road for fuel and tires. In the interim, on fresh rubber, Bell had cut Custer’s lead from three seconds to a half-second, but Bell never got close enough to attempt a righteous pass for the lead.

“I think I was a little too conservative on my green-flag pit stop,” said Custer, who led a race-high 88 laps. “It worked out good. He got closer, and I was definitely sweating a little bit.

“But we had a fast car and were able to pull away at the end.”

After winning the first two stages and leading 72 laps, Bell and his team perhaps got a bit complacent.

“We just kind of got worse there,” Bell said. “My car was driving really good. Probably just got a little too comfortable there, needed to free it up a little bit.

“But our Ruud Supra was really fast. We were able to win two stages, so we got a couple more playoff points. We’ve just got to work on a couple more things, and we’ll be good.”

RELATED: Complete Kentucky at-track gallery

Tyler Reddick ran third, albeit 12.808 seconds behind Custer, as the Xfinity Series’ Big Three took all three podium positions. Collectively, Custer, Bell and Reddick have won 12 of the 17 races so far this season.

Michael Annett came home fourth, and Briscoe finished fifth in the No. 98 Ford, the last car on the lead lap. Reddick leads second-place Bell by 67 points in the series standings, after Bell trimmed 10 points off Reddick’s post-Daytona International Speedway advantage.

Noah Gragson, Justin Allgaier, Ryan Truex, Ryan Sieg and Justin Haley completed the top 10.

Posted on by Reid Spencer

Martin Truex Jr. already has matched last year’s total of four Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series victories, but the driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota is nevertheless concerned about his performance on qualifying days.

The statistics say he should be.

Last year, as one of the series’ so-called Big Three, Truex won four poles and posted an average qualifying position of 9.9. This season, his top efforts in time trials have produced fifth-place starts at Richmond and Daytona (July), and his average position on the starting grid is 15.2 through the first 19 races.

RELATED: Kentucky unofficial lineup

Truex has won the last two Kentucky races in dominating fashion, but there are new variables this season that could make the challenge of three in a row more difficult. Not only are the Cup drivers dealing with new higher-downforce, lower-horsepower competition rules, but they’ll also have to deal with the addition of traction compound to the racing surface in Saturday’s Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

“As we figure this package out, and as we’ve run it at all these tracks this year, I feel like things have changed so much,” Truex said on Friday at Kentucky. “Early in the year, I feel like all the guys that ran good, qualified bad. Now, guys are figuring out ways to have enough speed in qualifying to start up front and to be able to have good enough handling throughout the race to stay up there.

“That’s been a big challenge for us is, how do we get both? We’ve had good handling cars at a lot of race tracks, but not a lot of speed. We’ve been able to take advantage of good handling. I don’t know. I think that, in a perfect world, you’d want to start up front because you get a good pit stall and you don’t have to worry about traffic and getting stuck trying to fight track position throughout that first stage.

“I think guys are figuring it out for sure. That’s something that we’re consistently working on and constantly working on that we haven’t, as the 19 car, we haven’t been able to figure it out quite yet.”

Historically, qualifying has been critical at Kentucky. The last three races — and five of the eight total at the 1.5-mile track — have been won from the front row.

Posted on by Reid Spencer

UPDATE: The No. 41 of Suarez passed inspection on Saturday confirming his pole win. The No. 6 of Ryan Newman, slated to start 23rd, failed inspection. The No. 77 of Quin Houff, slated to start last, was the only other car to fail inspection.

Daniel Suarez saved the best for last in Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series qualifying Friday at Kentucky Speedway.

The 27-year-old driver from Monterrey, Mexico, was the last to run a qualifying lap at the 1.5-mile track, and he used the opportunity to knock Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Aric Almirola off the pole for Saturday’s Quaker State 400 (7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Suarez covered the distance in 29.254 seconds (184.590 mph) to beat out Almirola (183.799 mph) for the top starting spot by .126 seconds.

RELATED: Unofficial qualifying results | Kentucky schedule

“The car’s been very fast the entire day,” said Suarez, who earned his first Busch Pole Award of the season and the second of his career. “We had probably the fastest car in last practice and the fastest car in qualifying, so I’m very proud of my guys, Ford Performance, Haas Automation — everyone who makes this program possible.”

Suarez, the 2016 NASCAR Xfinity Series champion, hasn’t won in the Cup Series. Suarez would become the first Mexican driver to earn a victory in NASCAR’s premier series.

“I really want to win so bad,” Suarez said. “I haven’t been in Victory Lane for a while. The last time I was in Victory Lane was in Brazil, and it was in a go-kart race. I have been looking forward to bring a trophy home for a while.

“We have very fast cars. Now it’s up to me to make it happen (Saturday) night.”

Three-time Kentucky winner Brad Keselowski went out early, and his speed (183.443 mph) stood up for the third starting spot, as Ford drivers swept the top three spots on the grid and five of the top seven. Kurt Busch (183.355 mph) was fourth in the fastest Chevrolet, and two-time defending race winner Martin Truex Jr. (182.587 mph) qualified eighth in the quickest Toyota.

“I think that’s our best qualifying effort on a mile-and-a-half (track) this year, so that’s something to be proud of there,” Keselowski said. “I didn’t quite have the speed to get to the pole. I’d have liked to have had a later draw. I think there might have been a bit of speed there, but I don’t know if I could have got … Daniel was a tenth (of a second) and a half … I might have been able to get a half a tenth or tenth.

“All in all, a decent run for our Discount Tire Ford Mustang, and happy for (engine builder) Doug Yates and all the Ford guys to have all three of our cars up front with the Fords, but we’ll see what we have (Saturday).”

Kevin Harvick qualified fifth, followed by Daniel Hemric, Clint Bowyer and Truex. Austin Dillon was ninth, and two-time Kentucky winner Kyle Busch claimed the 10th starting spot.

Keselowski, Truex and Kyle Busch are the only former Kentucky winners in the 36-driver field. Front-row starters have won the last three Cup races at the 1.5-mile track, a good omen for Suarez and Almirola.

The lineup was made official after Saturday’s pre-race inspection. The cars were impounded after Friday’s qualifying session.

Contributing: Staff reports

Posted on by Staff Report

Paul Menard said Friday he has a contract for the 2020 racing season, indicating he plans to return to the Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 Ford team.

Menard, 38, is in his second season with the Wood Brothers operation.

RELATED: Menard’s driver page | Kentucky schedule

“I have a good job, for sure,” Menard said after final Monster Energy Series practice at Kentucky Speedway. “I love the Wood Brothers. I love my race team. They are good people. I have a contract for next year. I guess it is getting to be that time of year when people start talking about things. I have a contract and I love my team. We just have to perform better, that is all.”

Menard is in his 13th full season in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. The Wisconsin native sits 20th in the standings heading into Saturday night’s Quaker State 400 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), with two top-10 finishes in the first 18 races.

Menard’s best finish this season was a sixth-place effort at Bristol Motor Speedway. He has led just one lap this season, accomplished last weekend at Daytona International Speedway.

“It is certainly not where we want to be,” said Menard, who sits outside the provisional postseason field of 16. “I feel like we have definitely shown some speed in the races, it is just a matter of putting together the entire race, something we have struggled to do. It starts on Friday, or qualifying day.”

Posted on by Staff Report

Three-time Kentucky winner Brad Keselowski led the final Monster Energy Series practice session at Kentucky Speedway, moving his No. 2 Team Penske Ford to a fast lap of 182.303 mph Friday afternoon.

RELATED: Best 10-lap averages | Final practice results

Keselowski led four Fords in the top five of the leaderboard in the final practice session at the 1.5-mile track in preparation for Saturday night’s Quaker State 400 Presented by Walmart (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Stewart-Haas Racing continued its strong practice showing as Kevin Harvick in the No. 4 Ford was second (181.794 mph) and Clint Bowyer in the No. 14 Ford was fifth (181.458 mph).

Denny Hamlin in the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota was third (181.763 mph), while Ryan Blaney was fourth in the No. 12 Team Penske Ford (181.702 mph).

Defending race winner Martin Truex Jr. was 20th in the session, moving his No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota around the track at 179.796 mph.

FIRST PRACTICE
Kurt Busch led the way in Friday’s opening Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series practice at Kentucky Speedway, wheeling his No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet around the 1.5-mile track at 183.742 mph.

Busch was just ahead of Stewart-Haas Racing teammates Aric Almirola in the No. 10 Ford (183.542 mph) and Daniel Suarez in the No. 41 Ford (183.101), who were right behind him with second- and third-best practice laps.

RELATED: 10-lap averages | Practice results

Jimmie Johnson in the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (182.723 mph) and Kyle Busch in the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota (182.550 mph) rounded out the top five.

Posted on by Steve Luvender

Editor’s note: Create your fill-in-the-blank, Mad Libs-style and tweet a screenshot of your zany experiment to Steve Luvender.

It’s been quite a season in NASCAR so far. At the halfway mark, 2019 is clearly the year of

from

. Watching back-to-back first-time winners Alex Bowman and Justin Haley makes me feel so

! I bet the next first-time winner will be

because he’s

.

Speaking of winning races, it has been a

we haven’t seen any victories from 2018 race winner

yet. There’s

he wins one before the end of the year.

Still, it’s hard to believe we’re halfway through the season. It feels like just yesterday

. My

race was when

because

.

There have been plenty of surprises in the first half of 2019, like

and

. I wonder if we’ll ever see something like that again!

And how about this Rookie of the Year battle?

has looked strong, but I think the biggest thing standing in his way is

. My prediction is

comes out on top in the end.

As the defending champion, Joey Logano has truly

. I believe this year he’s going to

, and maybe if we’re lucky, we’ll even see

.

I think

will win the championship. If not, it’ll totally be
because I am

And if I’m wrong,

.

Posted on by Marissa Fuller

SPARTA, Ky. — Tempers and … hats … flew in the garage at Kentucky Speedway when Natalie Decker and Spencer Boyd discussed an on-track incident during Thursday’s NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series race.

You read that correctly.

The issue started on Lap 44 when Boyd, in the No. 20, appeared to get too close to the No. 54 of Decker, going up the track, hitting her front left and sending her spinning along with him into outside wall at the entrance of Turn 1.

The wreck resulted in night-ending damage for both drivers, with Decker finishing 27th and Boyd being scored 29th.

RELATED: Full race results | Kentucky schedule

Visibly upset after the incident, Decker approached Boyd in the garage. The two drivers exchanged words until the conversation stopped when Decker grabbed the hat off of Boyd’s head, throwing it on the ground as she walked away.

https://twitter.com/nickolsen_/status/1149483670840811521?s=21

The crash between the two brought out the second caution of the race, the first occurring for the Stage 1 break.