TALLADEGA, Ala. – Austin Dillon will start from the Busch Pole in Sunday’s GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway (2 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Does he merit a spot in your Fantasy Live lineup. We’ve dissected the numbers to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration.
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Remember that the garage locks at the end of Stage 2. One the final stage starts, your roster is locked in.
RJ Kraft’s Fantasy Live lineup for race day at Talladega:
1. Aric Almirola
2. Clint Bowyer
3. Kurt Busch
4. Alex Bowman
5. Ty Dillon
Garage: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Cars to the rear: Ryan Newman, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Erik Jones, Reed Sorenson and Cody Ware (all for unapproved adjustments); Brendan Gaughan (driver change after qualifying, Tyler Reddick qualified the No. 62 on Saturday).
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Analysis: Superspeedway racing is unpredictable and because of that aspect I am looking to mostly use drivers that I have barely played this season. Stenhouse, Bowman and Ty Dillon have been used only once or not at all by me. That trio also have good records on superspeedways — Stenhouse and Dillon have been particularly solid at Talladega. I haven’t used Kurt Busch much and I think this is a good spot to plug him in. I’m taking Almirola on the strength on his five straight top 10s here — he’s the only driver with six or less uses that is in my lineup. With Stenhouse moving to the rear, though, for unapproved adjustments I am shifting him to the garage.
Bowyer slots in for Menard thanks to four things: I wanted another Ford starting in the top 10, that Ford needed to not be a Team Penske car because I want to save all of them, Bowyer has a solid history with two wins, 13 top 10s in 26 starts here and I’m not sure I’ll use him 10 times so I feel comfortable with the use here. I still like Menard as a play, but I just like Bowyer a bit more. Austin Dillon also merited a lot of consideration from me as did David Ragan and Daniel Suarez.
For the bonus picks, I’m going with this arrangement: Brad Keselowski in Stages 1 and 2 and Joey Logano for the win with Ford for the manufacturer.
Each week in this space, we’ll also highlight two Props Challenge items for players.
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1. O/U Ford will have 5.5 drivers finish in the top 10 at Talladega. I am in big time on the Over for this. Ford has won seven straight at Talladega. They had six in the top seven last spring at this race. I view this prop as figuring that two Penske cars, two SHR cars and two of Stenhouse, Newman, Menard, Ragan and McDowell find their way into the top 10 at day’s end.
2. Will Sunday’s race winner start outside the top 15? Usually, when Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin are outside the top 15 you would say yes. However, with superspeedway stalwarts like the Team Penske trio, Bowyer, Almirola, both Dillon brothers plus Elliott, Kurt Busch and more, it’s hard to say no to that group. So I won’t.
