No NASCAR.com expert correctly picked more than one driver in the Championship Round
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Way back in April during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Final Four — which was in Dallas the same weekend NASCAR visited Texas Motor Speedway — our NASCAR.com panel of experts gave their own version of which drivers they envisioned being the last ones standing in the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship Round finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
With Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400 (3 p.m. ET, ESPN) upon us, we decided it was the perfect time to look back at which drivers they picked and why.
As you’ll quickly learn upon reading those entries, the new Chase format, which debuted this year, lent itself to even more unpredictability than first imagined.
The four drivers remaining — Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman — each have a shot to pick up their first title, but every single one of our experts had exactly two former champions on their ballot in a mixture of Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Brad Keselowski. Johnson was eliminated after the Contender Round finale at Talladega, while Keselowski and Kenseth were both eliminated this past Sunday at Phoenix. Johnson, the defending champion in search of a record-tying seventh title, was the only driver to appear on every expert’s ballot.
Johnson’s teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. was also eliminated at Talladega, while Jeff Gordon — considered by many to be the favorite entering the Chase following the regular-season finale at Richmond on Sept. 6 — did not make a single ballot. The four-time champion nearly made it to the Championship Round, finishing second to Harvick at Phoenix on Sunday and one point behind Newman, the last driver in.
Take a look at how our experts picked back in April, with their reasoning at the time, and be sure to see who they view as the favorite heading into Sunday in this week’s NASCAR.com Power Rankings.
Zack Albert
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Jimmie Johnson
Matt Kenseth
Brad Keselowski
"Jimmie Johnson‘s history of turning up the wick once the Chase begins certainly guarantees him a spot among the title contenders, and the momentum that Hendrick Motorsports teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. has shown dating back to the end of 2013 will likely push him into the title mix at Homestead. Add in Kenseth’s recent excellence on 1.5-mile tracks and the sheer speed shown by Keselowski and the Team Penske camp at nearly every venue so far, and these four are the likeliest to not only survive, but thrive and advance in the new format on the road to Homestead."
Kenny Bruce
Kyle Busch
Kevin Harvick
Jimmie Johnson
Matt Kenseth
"The majority of the nine tracks leading up to the season-ending championship at Homestead have been kind to these four drivers. Johnson and Kenseth have won on eight of the nine, while Harvick and Busch have earned wins on seven. With winning races guaranteeing advancement into the next round, it’s hard to discount what these drivers and their respective teams have accomplished at these particular facilities in the past."
Holly Cain
Jimmie Johnson
Kyle Busch
Brad Keselowski
Kevin Harvick
"Johnson, Busch and Keselowski seem like gimme picks based on their history, their current performance and their potential down the stretch. The fourth choice was between Jeff Gordon — who is having a better than average year, can never be counted out and I think is racing with a sense of career urgency — and Kenseth, who is fresh off a career year in wins during a new era that rewards that. But in considering the new Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup format, Harvick looks like the best choice, having proven himself in the clutch and boasting an enviable track record at most of the 10 tracks that comprise the Chase."
Alan Cavanna
Jimmie Johnson
Brad Keselowski
Kevin Harvick
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
"A final four without a Joe Gibbs Racing car? I can’t believe it either. But it comes down to scheduling and the three races before Homestead. Jimmie Johnson will win Martinsville, Brad Keselowski will win Texas, and Kevin Harvick will continue his streak at Phoenix. The final spot in the championship race goes to the most consistent driver of the year: Dale Earnhardt Jr."
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