Zack Albert: I was going to make a lobster pun to equate a non-Chaser "clawing" out a win, but will pass this time. As tempting as it is to go with longtime New Hampshire fave Clint Bowyer or up-and-coming rookie phenom Kyle Larson, I think the sweet 16 is too stacked with heavyweights for a surprising non-Chaser to make a serious run at it.
Kenny Bruce: I guess it’s noteworthy that five of the last seven winners at N.H. are guys currently in the Chase. So the guys in the title hunt know how to win there. It’s a short race, so not a lot of time spent on pit road … but this isn’t one of the tracks where I see a non-Chase team winning. And I’m chuckling over your pun, Zack.
Cain: Just worth mentioning. … Tony Stewart is a three-time winner at New Hampshire and Clint Bowyer is a two-time victor. … Just saying, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a non-Chaser win.
Bruce: The top 10 at Chicago did have a couple of non-Chase drivers — Ganassi drivers Kyle Larson and Jamie McMurray. Larson finished third there in July. And Holly’s right about Mr. Bowyer — New Hampshire is one of his better tracks it seems.
And what was the stat I saw earlier today? Thirteen different winners in the last 13 races at Loudon? That’s crazy. Last time a guy swept both Cup races there … Kurt Busch — in 2004
Cain: Crazy good, Kenny. That’s why it’s a great Chase venue!
Bruce: It is that, HC. So are you beating the "we need more flat 1-mile tracks in the Chase" drum?
Cain: Just like a little variety!
Albert: Of the three tracks in the Contender Round, I think Loudon has more potential than Chicagoland or Dover for a surprise winner. But the list of Chase drivers with wins (some in multiples) at New Hampshire is a long one — Hamlin, Newman, Harvick, Johnson, Gordon … take your pick. Heavy hitters all. Those guys play for keeps come crunch time.
2. Can the drivers who struggled or had problems at Chicagoland, such as Aric Almirola, Greg Biffle, AJ Allmendinger and Carl Edwards, get back in the picture this week at New Hampshire?
Albert: It’s almost foreshadowing — when I talked to Almirola post-Richmond, he basically said they had to start out solidly and can’t get into throwing Hail Marys right off the bat. One race in, is it already time for the two-minute drill? With the new format, that might be the case.
Bruce: I hate to see anyone get saddled with a poor finish because of something like a blown engine, such as Almirola. The 43 team was having an exceptionally strong run. Now, those guys seem to be in a must-win situation to advance. While Biffle, AJ and Edwards finished outside the top 20, a decent finish at Loudon could put them back in the hunt. Of course, that’s easier said than done.
Cain: I know many are writing off Aric, but he was actually running well before the engine problem. Some of these other guys can’t even say that, so I think it’s possible for him to rebound. Carl Edwards could win at either venue. … And who knows which of the typical frontrunners may get caught up in someone else’s wreck this week at tight New Hampshire or suffer a mechanical/engine problem. I say it’s mostly still wide open.
Albert: So Almirola’s engine is toast, but his chances aren’t just yet?
Bruce: Well, if statistics carry any weight, Biffle is the only one of the four with any degree of success there. The other three have combined for seven top-10s at Loudon, and Carl owns five of those.
Albert: Loudon can be fairly unforgiving if problems arise, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the same misfortune that visited Almirola in the Windy City isn’t lurking around the corner in New England for the current Chase front-runners. These are short three-race rounds, but plenty of variables are still out there.
Cain: It would just be hard to believe that no Roush Fenway car advances to the next round. I think one of those guys rallies this week.
Albert: Agreed, Holly. My leaning would be toward Edwards advancing more than Biffle from the Roush Fenway camp, based on track record this season and in seasons past. Still, always time for a Hail Mary.
3. Now that he’s won one of the Challenger Round races and automatically advances to the Contender Round, will Brad Keselowski put it on cruise control for the next two weeks or keep his foot on the gas pedal?
Cain: I don’t think Brad knows cruise control. … He’s in the zone right now. Short of wrecking out his teammate Joey Logano, I think he’s still heavy on the gas and ready to dice it up for wins.
Albert: No letup for the polychromatic Deuce that I can tell. The big thing the Chase-opening victory does for the No. 2 crew is it allows them to try some things out at New Hampshire that can translate to the penultimate race at Phoenix.
Bruce: To his credit, crew chief Paul Wolfe said after Sunday’s win that the team can maybe be a little more aggressive in these next two races. Gamble when the opportunity is there. But I think both of you are correct — Brad’s never been one to sit back and take it easy on the track and I’d be surprised to see him go into that mode now.
And you’re right about looking ahead, Zack, but maybe they get a chance to look more at the races coming up in the next round (Kansas, Charlotte and Talladega) with the pressure off the team for now.
Albert: The thought of a Keselowski in a no-pressure situation is kind of scary. Thing is, will he become SuperBrad, the five-time winner this season, or the SuperBrad that wrecked a good chunk of the field while several laps down at Talladega? I’m sure the fans have split opinions.
Bruce: Those guys without a win, however … are we back to "let’s just have a good points day and not screw anything up?"
Albert: There’s something to be said for holding serve and not necessarily letting it rip.
Cain: Judging by Sunday and the crazy aggressive restarts and racing, doesn’t look like they are points racing yet. … That could be dramatically different, though, with only two shots left at advancing.
Maybe that first round was an anything-goes and they become a little more conservative?
Bruce: Maybe so, Holly. But one thing we saw once again Sunday was how good the racing is during restarts. The surprise was that it was also pretty good well into a green flag run as well.
Cain: Agreed Kenny. And I don’t see it letting up, that’s for sure!
Bruce: So I guess the big question is this — will that sort of close racing continue? More importantly, though, can Michael Waltrip survive another round on Dancing with the Stars?
Albert: In short: Yes and no. Sorry, Mikey, but I’ve seen concrete retaining walls with more flexibility.
Cain: I’m a little more optimistic. Yes and yes. But he’ll need another fire suit to make it much further. … Maybe Jeff Gordon can give him some dance lessons.
We already know he’s got the best dance moves in the garage!
Bruce: To his credit, Michael gave it a shot. But he better keep his day job.
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