NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 Cup Series drivers competing for the 2026 championship after Carson Hocevar’s win at Talladega Superspeedway and before Sunday’s Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY at Texas Motor Speedway (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Joey Logano enters as the defending winner.
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Analysis: Reddick started from the pole and briefly flashed early control, but never truly dictated the race after the opening green-flag cycle and led just two laps before settling into the pack. He stayed mostly clean through the Lap 115 wreck that wiped out much of the field but never re-emerged as a late-race factor, ultimately fading into a quiet 14th-place finish but still holding a commanding edge atop the standings. Texas should be a different story — a track where he owns a win, four top 10s in seven starts and a 13.1 average finish and very likely will be in the mix for victory No. 6 of the year.
Analysis: Hamlin wasted no time asserting himself at ‘Dega, charging to the lead on the opening lap and controlling long stretches early to pace the field for 28 laps before pit road issues unraveled his afternoon. A speeding penalty ultimately paved the way to a 15th-place finish, but the result hardly reflects the speed, as Hamlin once again showed race-controlling ability before execution got in the way. That becomes especially relevant at Texas — where he’s a three-time winner with 16 top 10s and a 12.5 average finish — a track that tends to reward the exact kind of long-run control he displayed early Sunday.
Analysis: Elliott was largely invisible for much of the race — often a counterintuitive key to Talladega success — keeping himself out of trouble while others were caught up in the “Big One” before positioning himself well in the closing laps to secure a fourth-place finish. He never led but also never made a mistake; the kind of clean execution that continues to define his season, with six top 10s through 10 races keeping him firmly in the title mix. Texas should suit that approach as well; Elliott owns a win and seven top 10s there with a 12.5 average finish, reinforcing his profile as one of the most efficient and reliable performers entering the weekend.
Analysis: Blaney’s ‘Dega day ended prematurely in the Lap 115 crash, but he had positioned himself among the leaders before the incident and was very much in the mix before the race flipped on its head. Given his season-long speed and ability to move through the field, Texas should set up as a perfect rebound spot. The Fort Worth track has been one of No. 12’s strongest statistically, with 451 laps led (finding the front of the field in eight of the past 13 races there) and nine top 10s, even if those runs haven’t yet converted into wins — a trend that feels correctable this weekend.
Analysis: Larson started on the front row and ran among the leaders early before becoming another victim of the mid-race crash, exiting with a 40th-place finish and little to show for the weekend. Like Blaney, this is a pure throwaway result for one of the fastest cars in the field week-to-week. Texas should represent a much better barometer of where the No. 5 team stands come Sunday night, as Larson has led 615 laps there with a win and seven top 10s, with certainly one of the highest ceilings of anyone entering the race.
Analysis: Gibbs was one of the most impressive drivers early on Sunday, consistently running inside the top five and leading 17 laps across multiple stretches before his day, you guessed it … ended in the Lap 115 wreck. Texas is less proven territory for him and should offer a good chance to really show what he’s made of this year, with a rough 22.3 average finish there so far. Given his current form, though, he remains one of the more intriguing upside drivers in the field.
Analysis: Buescher, as expected, spent much of the final stage in contention, trading the lead multiple times with Hocevar before ultimately finishing second, as No. 17 continues to be a force on superspeedways. The transition to Texas could be a rough homecoming for the Prosper native, unfortunately. Buescher has yet to record a top-10 finish across his 16 starts there and carries an average finish north of 21, making this a likely regression spot despite the recent momentum.
Analysis: Wallace worked his way into strong track position through pit strategy and ran inside the lead group before his afternoon unraveled at one of his best tracks, getting bumped and spinning from the front of the field to trigger the multi-car crash that eliminated much of the competition, including himself. Texas offers a slightly more stable environment, and recent strong runs there indicate he’s better than the three top-10s and 118 laps led he’s earned at the 1.5-mile facility across 11 starts.
Analysis: Aaaaand we’re off. Hocevar’s first career win came not through domination, but precision and timing, hovering outside the top 10 for much of the race before executing perfectly in the closing laps, leading just 19 total circuits en route to the victory and one heck of a post-race celebration. It’s a significant milestone and moment for the sport, but also important context: he’s probably just getting started, and the rest of the garage should be on notice. Texas presents a different yet achievable challenge, where he’ll be looking for just his second top 10 at the track. Or perhaps another cowboy hat for his growing collection, and the trophy that comes along with it.
Analysis: Bell was one of the most dominant drivers throughout the race, leading a race-high 31 laps and controlling multiple segments before fading late to a 17th-place finish that doesn’t quite reflect his performance. His speed should carry on to Texas, one of the fastest intermediate tracks, where Bell has quietly been one of the most consistent with four top 10s in seven starts, a 13.0 average finish — and a real shot at the win Sunday.
Analysis: Byron never established himself as much of a factor at Talladega — which seems to be happening more often this year than usual — and was swept up in the Lap 115 crash, resulting in a 35th-place finish that the No. 24 team will want to move on quickly from. Texas, however, has consistently been one of his better tracks, highlighted by a win, six top 10s and an 11.4 average finish, making him a prime bounce-back candidate this weekend in a campaign that needs a bit of rejuvenation.
Analysis: Recent ‘Dega winner Briscoe once again showed early promise, leading laps in the opening portion of the race before pit-road miscues and a loss of the draft dropped him off the lead lap and ultimately to a 29th-place finish. The encouraging piece is the speed, which he’ll hope to carry into this weekend to pair with a favorable Texas profile. In five starts there, Briscoe has three top 10s and a 12.6 average finish, suggesting a much stronger showing could be on the horizon.
Analysis: The Talladega maven ran inside the top five early and looked poised for a solid day before being collected in the mid-race crash, ending his afternoon well before it could develop. With RFK showing consistent speed, though, Texas presents a strong opportunity to rebound. The 2012 champ’s 14 career top 10s and 685 laps led at the track underscore his long-term success there, which has continued even after his Penske days.
Analysis: Preece was one of the most impressive drivers early, winning Stage 1 and controlling stretches of the race, but faded as the race progressed, ultimately finishing 18th. While the speed was notable, Texas has historically not been kind to him. He has yet to record a top-10 finish there and carries a 26.6 average finish, making this a difficult spot to sustain that momentum.
Analysis: Suárez kept his race clean and relatively uneventful, avoiding trouble and capitalizing late to secure a 12th-place finish — and then getting to celebrate in Victory Lane with his teammate. That approach has served him well at times this season as he gets his feet wet with Spire, and Texas could see this momentum build further. Three of his 25 career top fives came there, and each of his last five starts has yielded a finish of 12th or better.
Analysis: Logano had positioned himself as a contender before being swept up in the Lap 115 crash and ending his day prematurely, but with an already deep 250-point hole to standings leader Tyler Reddick, it’s fair to question whether this might not be the year Logano secures title No. 4. Texas, at least, offers a favorable outlook, as he enters as the defending winner with plenty of other success there, but he’ll likely need to rattle off several wins from here on out to get back into the title picture.
Analysis: Cindric overcame an early pit-road mistake — missing his stall and losing track position — to recover and finish eighth, largely by staying clean through the race’s most chaotic moments as he continues to flex on superspeedways. That result may perhaps be long forgotten come this weekend at Texas, where he has yet to record a top 10 and holds a 23.0 average finish across four starts.
Analysis: Chastain charged forward from mid-pack, leading 22 laps and winning Stage 2 while showing some of the strongest race control of anyone in the field before fading slightly to finish seventh — a very, very much needed day for this No. 1 team. Texas has been less consistent for him historically, with just two top fives and an average finish above 20, so it may fizzle away in the Fort Worth heat. (That said, those finishes were each runner-ups and came in the past three races, so we’ll see.)
Analysis: Smith hung around within the draft successfully throughout the race, avoiding trouble and capitalizing late to secure a fifth-place finish without ever leading a lap. Texas could present a different challenge for Smith, however, where he has limited experience and an average finish above 22, though he was 17th last year.
Analysis: Gilliland ran as high as the top three during portions of the race but never led and gradually faded as the race progressed, ultimately finishing a still-respectable 11th. The ability to maintain position was encouraging, but the lack of closing speed is the next piece of the puzzle to figure out and he certainly hasn’t yet at Texas, where Gilliland has yet to record a top-10 finish and holds a 26.3 average finish.
