Despite valiant charge, veteran didn’t qualify for Chase

RELATED: Regular-season standings | Saturday’s results | Chase explained

RICHMOND, Va. — Jeff Gordon thought he was in.

The four-time champion of NASCAR’s top series knew he didn’t have the best of restarts when the green flag flew for the final time at Richmond International Raceway. He knew he had passed the No. 14 of Mark Martin, the one vehicle he thought he had to overtake. He knew it was going to be close — but he thought he had done enough.

Until crew chief Alan Gustafson came over the radio, and told his driver he had missed the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup — by two positions on the race track, and one point in the standings.

“I thought we were OK,” Gordon said late Saturday night, after finishing eighth on the 0.75-mile short track. “I knew when the green flag came out and that restart didn’t go very well, some guys got by me. I was just hoping it wasn’t enough.”

It was just enough for Joey Logano to edge Gordon by one point for the 10th and final Chase berth awarded based on the standings. Since Gordon is winless on the year and would have lost a tiebreaker to Logano, he would have needed two more positions on the track. He also didn’t have a chance at one of the two Wild Card slots, which went to Kasey Kahne and Martin Truex Jr. The near miss Saturday came one year after Gordon narrowly squeezed his way into the playoff, by three points over Kyle Busch.

This time around, he found out what it was like to be on the other side.

“We are a good race team. We’ve had our issues this year that put us in this position,” he said. “We shouldn’t be in this position in the first place. We are, and that’s the facts. We’ve got to execute better and do a better job to make sure we’re not in that position. We’re going to fight hard for the remaining 10 races, and do everything we can to rebuild and get ready for next year.”

Gordon came to Richmond at 11th place in the standings, six points out of top 10. The Hendrick Motorsports stalwart could have clinched at least a Wild Card with a victory, and he seemed ready to make a run at it after winning the Coors Light Pole on Friday and then leading the opening 49 laps in the race. But the No. 24 car faded over a long green-flag run that opened the event, and then just past the halfway point radioed that he had a vibration — which turned out to be a loose right-front wheel.

The ensuing pit stop left Gordon in 21st position, two laps down, and more importantly 14 points out of a Chase spot. The No. 24 team was helped by the fact that Joey Logano struggled from the outset, opening the door for Gordon to make a charge. Gordon overtook leader Brad Keselowski to get one lap back, got back on the lead lap following a debris caution, lost another lap when Jimmie Johnson blew a tire while the No. 24 was coming to pit road, and then got the free pass once again.

Gradually, though, Gordon closed the distance between himself and Logano, whose balky car was two laps down, making it almost impossible to pass anyone in the running order. With 63 laps remaining Gordon was within four points. With 42 left, he was within one. With 33 left, he passed Martin for ninth place on the track, and usurped Logano for 10th place in the standings by one point.

“The way the night was going, I didn’t think we were going to make it in,” Gordon said. “We were struggling, and I thought, ‘There’s no way we’re going to make it at this rate.’ And then (Logano) gave us hope from having such a bad night, and then we got our car better, and all the sudden it felt like last year again and we were marching forward and we’re passing cars. They’re saying, you’re good, you’re good. I was trying not to get too excited about that, but I was certainly wanting to see that thing go all the way to the finish.”

He was good — until Clint Bowyer spun to bring out a caution with six laps remaining, sending the leaders down pit road one final time and prompting a restart with several drivers’ championship hopes on the line. Gordon got jammed in and fell back, but an equally as important development was occurring behind him, where Logano had taken a wave-around and gotten to within one lap of the leaders — and within sight of two other vehicles he was able to pass.

With one lap remaining, Logano held a two-point lead. Gordon got Martin — but also needed Truex, who finished one spot ahead of him.

“We had it. We had it,” Gordon said. “… We just did not need that caution. That was unfortunate. Even with the caution, I thought we were still going to be good, getting four tires and being the No. 1 pit stall. We were starting on the inside. (Kevin) Harvick got a run on me, and I tried to block that. I got into the 16 (car of Greg Biffle) and it got all jumbled up, and the two guys with no tires were just causing chaos, and you knew that was going to happen. We just didn’t go. We just didn’t get the spots we needed to.”

He actually needed two positions, since Logano’s victory at Michigan would have been the tiebreaker. Either way, it was a painful end result for a driver who started the race showing such promise, and now will be left competing for 11th place for the remainder of the season.

“I just love that we stuck together and never gave up,” Gordon said. “We had a really, really good car there at the end. Would have liked to have been a little further up and not gotten so far behind. I don’t know what it is about this darn track, man. We just really struggled from the green flag. Going through a long run like that, we just don’t have what it takes to keep the car up front. We’ve got to work on that regardless, and keep putting this kind of effort in. But disappointed, for sure.”

MORE:

READ: Gordon comes up
short for Chase

READ: Busch’s big
dreams pay off

WATCH: Bowyer’s spin
raises eyebrows

READ: The Chase
explained

NASCAR reviewing Saturday night’s race at Richmond International Raceway

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (Sept. 8, 2013) — “NASCAR is reviewing Saturday night’s race at Richmond International Raceway per protocol and has no plans for further statement until that process is complete.”
 

Following birth of second daughter, Johnson looks forward to Chase reset

RICHMOND, Va. — Sure, Jimmie Johnson was frustrated by a disappointing 40th-place finish in NASCAR’s regular-season finale Saturday night, but the new dad was still smiling after the race, still confident in his chances for a sixth NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship.

Johnson’s wife Chandra gave birth to the couple’s second daughter, Lydia, in the early hours of Friday morning. “Five Time,” as Johnson is affectionately known, didn’t show up at Richmond International Raceway for Saturday night’s race until Saturday afternoon.

Because he didn’t qualify his No. 48 Kobalt Tools Chevrolet Johnson had to start from the rear of the field. And that was merely the beginning of a long, challenging evening. He went down a lap early, blew a right front tire, and hit the wall — all incidents resulting in his fourth consecutive finish of 28th or worse — the longest such streak in his celebrated 12-year career.

While it isn’t the way Johnson wanted to enter the 10-race Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, he didn’t seem overly concerned.

“The ‘Five‑Time’ thing is awfully cool, but ‘Two‑Time,’ I’m much more proud of being two‑time than anything,’’ a smiling Johnson said referring to his daughters. “Just an awesome couple of nights.”

“Unfortunately,’’ he continued, “tonight here at the track things did not go well.  We would literally wear the right front tire off the car as the night would go on. Start off kind of fast, run through the right front tire, had some issues there. But as I look at the string of bad races we’ve had here over the last three, four weeks, the majority of the tracks that resemble the Chase, we’ve been fast. We had a blown engine and tire failure at Pocono. Bristol, here, tracks we don’t see in the Chase, we’ve had our issues.

“I’m glad Richmond and Bristol aren’t in the Chase. I feel the 10 tracks that are in the Chase are very good for the 48 team. We’ll start over on a clean sheet of paper next weekend and go at it.’’

Johnson led the championship standing for all but two of the previous 25 weeks. He had accumulated a 75-point lead by the end of July in anticipation of possibly missing a race to be with his wife should she go into labor on a race day.

It turned out to be safety cushion — not because of the birth of his daughter, but misfortune on the track.

With four wins, Johnson is re-seeded second in the standings to start the Chase run — three-points behind five-time winner Matt Kenseth.

“Without a doubt you want to enter the Chase with momentum,’’ Johnson said. “I think every team falls back on past history. We have won championships without momentum going into the first race.

“So we’re going to fall on our experience and also the experience of knowing the Chase is so different than anything else. You’re only racing 12 guys, not 43. So things change a lot. We’re going to go to a track that is very good for us. We had a tire test there earlier in the year. It went really well.

“I’m going to reserve any major concern or overwhelming confidence until after Chicago. I’m going to go in there with confidence I can go out and win because I know that I can. We’re going to enter nice and smooth and see how Chicago goes. Chicago is a whole new world.”

MORE:

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Defending series champion feels he held his line; Peters says he got ‘ran over’

NEWTON, Iowa — It wasn’t the same sort of headline-grabbing move as Chase Elliott nosing Ty Dillon out of the way in the final turn at Canadian Tire Motorsport Park last weekend, but James Buescher’s contact with Timothy Peters on Lap 196 of Sunday’s NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race at Iowa Speedway had just as much impact on the standings.

“It’s just a disappointing end to a day that could’ve been great,” said Peters, who finished 12th and doesn’t plan on making amends with Buescher. “There’s no need (to talk to him). He’s a moron.”

Those were strong words from Peters, but the driver of the No. 17 Red Horse Racing Toyota was upset. The two got tangled up as the race-leader Peters came down into Buescher, leading to a No. 17 spinout, an eventual Victory Lane appearance for the No. 31 and a disagreement as to who owned that inside line.

“It’s kind of funny to hear (Peters say) that, because he and I normally get along just fine and never have any problems racing each other,” said Buescher, who picked up his second win of the season in defense of his 2012 series title. “We normally race each other really clean, but today he was just blocking me all day and inside five to 10 laps to go, he kept chopping me. I was there. If somebody was that far there on me, entry to one, at that point in the race, you give him the lane and you race him, you don’t chop him off. It didn’t work out for him.”

Peters’ description of the contact was more black and white. “He ran over me, there’s nothing to describe about it,” he said.

After Buescher took the checkered flag following a pair of green-white-checkered attempts, Peters showed his displeasure with the Turner Scott Motorsports driver by bumping him on the front straightaway during the cool-down lap. Had the final bit of contact between the two trucks been the sole issue all day, Peters might not have been as hot as he was post-race, but it wasn’t the initial run-in.

“Early on in the race, I raced him for awhile and he kept chopping me and getting the corner,” said Buescher. “I’d get inside and he’d come down on entry, when I felt like if somebody’s that far inside of me, I’m leaving a lane just because I don’t want to get wrecked and if somebody gets to my outside, I leave a lane and I did for him.

“When he came down, that was the second time in two corners that he had done it within five to 10 laps to go in the top five. So, I just held my line and ran the line that I was planning on running and he came down the race track and spun himself out.”

Peters had a chance to become the first back-to-back winner at the track in series history after winning here in July, which, in turn, would have put his name back into title talk. Instead, his deficit to series leader Matt Crafton increased to 74, while Buescher has momentum and a deficit of just 37 points.

“We’re definitely on a roll,” Buescher said said. “Four races ago, we were 64 points out of the lead and I think we’ve not quite cut that in half, but close enough. We’ve got plenty of racing left to go and I think we can keep it up.”

It will be interesting to see if there’s retaliation from Peters next week at Chicagoland Speedway, but don’t expect Buescher to let off the gas. He knows he was on thin ice in defense of his title just a month ago and will take full advantage of his recent success.

“You never know what’s going to happen in these things, you just have to put yourself in position to win them,” Buescher said.

MORE:

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No. 31 comes away with win after second attempt at green-white-checkered finish

Related: Full results from Sunday

James Buescher had a plan and it worked to perfection.

Saving a set of sticker tires for a late-race trip to pit road – after his rivals had exhausted their supply of fresh rubber – pushed the reigning NASCAR Camping World Truck Series champion to victory in Sunday’s Fan Appreciation 200 at Iowa Speedway.

Buescher took the lead from pole winner Ross Chastain on the first of two green-white-checker restarts at lap 204 and then held off the 20-year-old Ford driver to win his second series race of the season and sixth overall.

Chastain, who led a race-high 116 laps in pursuit of his first NASCAR national series victory, finished .486 seconds behind Buescher’s Chevrolet, which led only the final nine laps of overtime which stretched the 200-lap scheduled distance to 212 circuits.

The attempt at a first green-white-checkered finish was set up when Timothy Peters, who led 36 laps, and Buescher made contact on Lap 194. The contact sent Peters up into the wall in an incident that also dented Dillon’s truck — Buescher, however, suffered no damage.

Ryan Blaney had taken the lead from Brad Keselowski Racing teammate Chastain on the previous restart, but he was caught failing to maintain pace car speed and ordered out of the lead. That put Chastain, the pole sitter, in prime position again when the green flag dropped on Lap 203.

It wasn’t green for long — Brendan Gaughan cut a tire for the second time on the afternoon, causing a hard wreck with Joey Coulter that brought out the yellow. This time, Buescher was in the lead, and he held Chastain off the rest of the way.

Chase Elliott, meanwhile, had the worst finish of his NASCAR Camping World Truck Series season — 31st. Coming off his first career win, Elliott — who can only race on road courses or tracks 1 mile or shorter due to being 17 years old — was down to 24th place with ongoing issues when his right rear tire blew, bringing out the caution on Lap 37.

He got into the wall hard and was checked out at the infield care center

“I really don’t know what happened,” Elliott said after being cleared by medical personnel. “I’m not sure if the shock broke or not. About four laps before we wrecked, I thought I we might have a right rear going down.”

Gaughan also had tire trouble; he was running second on Lap 116 when his left front tire blew.

He made it to pit road before a caution was necessary, but as he skidded into his box, his left front went down. His crew team had to make fixes to the truck’s body, in addition to adding four new tires.

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Chase berth came down to the last lap for driver of the No. 56 car

RICHMOND, Va. — There were engine issues and a broken wrist, potholes along the road that kept Martin Truex Jr. wondering if he would survive to fight another day.
 
Entering Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway, the Michael Waltrip Racing driver tenuously held the No. 2 Wild Card spot for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
 
"Just every time we … got in a good position something bad happened," Truex Jr. said after his seventh-place finish finally earned him a Chase berth. "I’m proud that we were able to keep fighting. I just can’t believe it."

Life on the bubble these past few weeks has been stressful. It didn’t help that come race time, his No. 56 Toyota was fast on short sprints, not nearly as strong on long, green-flag runs. And the 26th race of the season had its share of the latter, going 137 consecutive laps before the first caution flag appeared, then 60 or more, then 50 and change in between interruptions.
 
"It was difficult all night," said Truex Jr., who will start next week’s Chase at Chicago 12th in points, 15 behind points leader Matt Kenseth. "The car was not good.
 
"We were fast on the short runs; on long runs no matter what I did I couldn’t keep the tires on it. The run before the last caution, trying to hold off the 24 (of Jeff Gordon), I have no idea how I did it. The tires were just sliding everywhere, it wouldn’t turn, I couldn’t touch the gas, I couldn’t get in the corner, it wouldn’t do anything.”
 
Worse yet, he said, was trying to keep up with what others in similar points positions were doing. With the list of those in and out of the Chase picture swapping nearly as quickly as cars could speed around the 0.75-mile speedway, keeping an eye on one’s own status proved difficult.
 
The message from his team rarely changed, though, Truex Jr. said.
 
“Every single time I asked them, they said, ‘You’re not in it, you’re not in. You’re two points out. The 22 (of Joey Logano) getting it now,” he said. “It was just all night long. We weren’t in it, we weren’t in it, we weren’t in it.
 
“And then all of a sudden I take the white flag (signifying the final lap) and they’re saying ‘Pass one more car. You’ve got to pass that car.’ I passed the car and here we are.”
 
With less than 20 laps remaining, it appeared as if Ryan Newman was en route to the win, a result that would allow him to ease out of the state capitol with the second Chase Wild Card berth.
 
But when Clint Bowyer, Truex Jr.’s teammate at MWR, spun to bring out the final caution with less than 10 laps remaining, the leaders hit pit road, a dozen or more took a wave around, some chose to stay out, and what seemed cut and dried only moments before suddenly took an entirely different appearance.
 
Newman lost time in the pits. Others lost positions due to worn tires. Truex Jr., however, surged, the run just short enough to allow him to pick up the much-needed position.
 
“I thought at no point … we had a chance,” said Truex Jr., who will be making his third appearance in the Chase. “I knew the 22 was running really bad. He had a win. Newman had a win. We were only five points apart. (Newman) was running way better than we were.”
 
About 100 laps into the race, he said, “I said I’m not going to worry about it any more. I’m going to try to keep working on my car to get it better.
 
“That’s all I could do at that point.”
 
In the end, it was just enough.

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Camping World Truck race live leaderboard from Iowa, 2 p.m. ET, Sunday, Sept. 8

MORE:

READ: Gordon comes up
short for Chase

READ: Busch’s big
dreams pay off

WATCH: Bowyer’s spin
raises eyebrows

READ: The Chase
explained

Driver points standings after the 26th race at Richmond International Raceway

Pos Driver BPts Points Ldr Nxt Chase Starts Poles Wins T5s T10s DNF PPos G/L
1. Carl Edwards 18 842 0 0 92 26 1 2 8 13 1 4 3
2. Jimmie Johnson 31 841 -1 -1 91 26 2 4 9 15 1 1 -1
3. Clint Bowyer 6 829 -13 -12 79 26 0 0 8 13 2 2 -1
4. Kevin Harvick 14 828 -14 -1 78 26 0 2 6 13 2 3 -1
5. Kyle Busch 29 811 -31 -17 61 26 3 4 11 15 3 5 0
6. Matt Kenseth 37 807 -35 -4 57 26 2 5 6 13 3 6 0
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 7 781 -61 -26 31 26 1 0 5 14 2 7 0
8. Kurt Busch 14 762 -80 -19 12 26 1 0 8 13 2 10 2
9. Greg Biffle 7 759 -83 -3 9 26 0 1 3 10 0 9 0
10. Joey Logano 14 751 -91 -8 1 26 1 1 8 14 2 8 -2
11. Jeff Gordon 10 750 -92 -1 -1 26 1 0 5 12 5 11 0
12. Martin Truex Jr. 11 741 -101 -9 -10 26 0 1 6 11 3 13 1
13. Ryan Newman 13 741 -101 0 -10 26 1 1 6 12 5 14 1
14. Kasey Kahne 15 739 -103 -2 -12 26 0 2 8 11 3 12 -2
15. Jamie McMurray 10 721 -121 -18 -30 26 1 0 2 6 0 16 1
16. Brad Keselowski 16 720 -122 -1 -31 26 1 0 7 11 2 15 -1
17. Paul Menard 7 698 -144 -22 -53 26 0 0 2 7 1 17 0
18. Aric Almirola 2 664 -178 -34 -87 26 0 0 1 5 4 18 0
19. Juan Pablo Montoya 6 656 -186 -8 -95 26 0 0 4 7 0 19 0
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. # 3 644 -198 -12 -107 26 1 0 0 1 0 21 1
21. Marcos Ambrose 5 638 -204 -6 -113 26 1 0 0 5 2 20 -1
22. Jeff Burton 3 628 -214 -10 -123 26 0 0 2 5 2 22 0
23. Tony Stewart 8 594 -248 -34 -157 21 0 1 5 8 0 23 0
24. Casey Mears 4 544 -298 -50 -207 26 0 0 0 1 2 24 0
25. David Ragan 13 489 -353 -55 -262 26 0 1 1 1 3 25 0
26. Denny Hamlin 11 485 -357 -4 -266 22 4 0 3 4 6 26 0
27. Danica Patrick # 1 473 -369 -12 -278 26 1 0 0 1 4 27 0
28. David Gilliland 4 462 -380 -11 -289 26 0 0 1 1 5 28 0
29. Mark Martin 2 457 -385 -5 -294 19 1 0 1 5 1 29 0
30. Dave Blaney 1 396 -446 -61 -355 25 0 0 0 0 4 30 0
31. David Stremme 1 362 -480 -34 -389 25 0 0 0 0 3 31 0
32. David Reutimann 1 353 -489 -9 -398 26 0 0 0 0 5 33 1
33. Travis Kvapil 5 352 -490 -1 -399 26 0 0 0 0 8 34 1
34. Bobby Labonte 1 343 -499 -9 -408 22 0 0 0 0 4 32 -2
35. Jj Yeley 3 340 -502 -3 -411 25 0 0 0 1 7 35 0
36. Aj Allmendinger 0 337 -505 -3 -414 14 0 0 0 1 2 36 0
37. Timmy Hill 0 127 -715 -210 -624 12 0 0 0 0 1 37 0
38. Michael McDowell 2 122 -720 -5 -629 23 0 0 0 1 20 38 0
39. Michael Waltrip 1 102 -740 -20 -649 3 0 0 2 2 0 39 0
40. Ken Schrader 0 92 -750 -10 -659 8 0 0 0 0 1 41 1
41. Terry Labonte 0 77 -765 -15 -674 4 0 0 0 0 1 42 1
42. Boris Said 0 48 -794 -29 -703 2 0 0 0 0 0 43 1
43. Ron Fellows 0 31 -811 -17 -720 2 0 0 0 0 0 44 1
44. Alex Kennedy 0 21 -821 -10 -730 3 0 0 0 0 2 45 1
45. Justin Marks 0 14 -828 -7 -737 1 0 0 0 0 0 46 1
46. Victor Gonzalez Jr. 0 10 -832 -4 -741 2 0 0 0 0 1 47 1
47. Scott Riggs 0 10 -832 0 -741 6 0 0 0 0 6 48 1
48. Brian Keselowski 0 9 -833 -1 -742 2 0 0 0 0 2 49 1
49. Tomy Drissi 0 8 -834 -1 -743 2 0 0 0 0 1 50 1
50. Jacques Villeneuve 0 3 -839 -5 -748 1 0 0 0 0 1 51 1
51. Jason Leffler 0 1 -841 -2 -750 1 0 0 0 0 1 52 1
52. Brian Vickers(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 12 0 1 2 5 3 53 1
53. Regan Smith(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 6 0 0 0 2 0 54 1
54. Austin Dillon(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 9 0 0 0 0 0 55 1
55. Trevor Bayne(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 9 0 0 0 0 1 56 1
56. Max Papis(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 1 0 0 0 0 0 57 1
57. Josh Wise(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 25 0 0 0 0 9 58 1
58. Landon Cassill(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 23 0 0 0 0 6 59 1
59. Owen Kelly(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 1 0 0 0 0 0 60 1
60. Joe Nemechek(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 23 0 0 0 0 9 61 1
61. Tony Raines(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 3 0 0 0 0 1 62 1
62. Mike Bliss(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 12 0 0 0 0 11 63 1
63. Brendan Gaughan(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 1 0 0 0 0 0 64 1
64. Ryan Truex(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 2 0 0 0 0 1 70 6
65. Sam Hornish Jr.(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 1 0 0 0 0 1 65 0
66. Paulie Harraka(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 1 0 0 0 0 0 66 0
67. Elliott Sadler(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 1 0 0 0 0 1 67 0
68. Morgan Shepherd(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 1 0 0 0 0 1 68 0
69. Johnny Sauter(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 1 0 0 0 0 1 69 0
70. Reed Sorenson(I) 0 0 -842 -1 -751 1 0 0 0 0 1 76 6
                             


BPts – Bonus Points, -Ldr/-Nxt = Points behind Leader/Next higher, PPos = Previous Position, G/L = Points standing gain/loss, (i) Ineligible for driver points in this series

Like NASCAR drivers, fantasy players have been competing for this moment

Play: NASCAR Fantasy Live

The Chase is about to begin, but rather than having had to endure the stress of attempting to climb into the top 12, players in the NASCAR Fantasy Live game knew they would be part of the playoffs. Now, they have an opportunity to win their league, as NASCAR Fantasy Live points reset.

Winning one’s league each week was not only for bragging rights in 2013, but it also earned three points each time. Therefore, players who outscored their competition in 10 regular-season races now have 30 points to carry with them into the Chase. Players who failed to win a single race this season are starting at zero and are at a disadvantage.

But beginning with the Geico 400 at Chicagoland, points begin accumulating once more like they did earlier in the season. Players’ leagues stay intact so they are still racing against the same competition, and just as it took some time for Matt Kenseth to learn how to race with Joey Logano, fantasy owners now know the strengths and weaknesses of their colleagues.

FULL CHASE COVERAGE

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Chase Dominance

NASCAR enters the 10th season of the playoff-style format, and the final 10 races of the season are beginning to show a clear pattern. Chase contenders earned their way into the top 12 by dominating the top-fives and top-10s. That will continue until the end of the season. In the first 10 years of the Chase, 83 percent of the races were won by playoff contenders. In the last seven years since NASCAR expanded the Chase to 12 drivers, 92 percent of the winners came from the elite group.

When drivers missed the top spot, it was not by much; 70 percent of the top-fives in Chase races were earned by Chase contenders. That leaves 30 percent of the slots available for drivers outside the top 12 — and that is where bargains will be obtained.

It pays to get off to a strong start in the Chase, and the two tracks that have been the kindest to contenders are those that historically kicked off the final 10 races. Chicagoland Speedway has hosted a Chase race for only two years, but early indications are that Chase drivers will perform best on this course with an average finish of 11.3 compared to the overall Chase driver average of 13.5. In 2011, contenders swept the top five and grabbed eight of the top-10 spots there; last year, they scored three top-fives and earned seven top-10s.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is the second-best track for Chase drivers with an average of 11.7. As players look through the record books, there have been equally remarkable sweeps of the top spots there. Most recently, Chase drivers grabbed all of the top-five spots last year and took seven of the top-10s.

As players approach the remaining tracks, most of them have been kind to Chase contenders and fall within a narrow range from Dover International Speedway where they scored an average finish of 12.6 to Phoenix International Raceway with an average of 12.9.

That leaves three tracks that fall outside the 13th-place average mark. The worst track for Chase contenders has always been Talladega Superspeedway. In 10 years, drivers earned an average finish of only 17.7, and a typical race witnesses four drivers finishing 25th or worse. Players should plan to spend their salary cap on mid-level and bargain-basement drivers that weekend.

Drivers to Watch

Jimmie Johnson
has a reputation for coming on strong in the final 10 races, especially since NASCAR employed the current playoff-style format. He is also the only driver who has qualified for all nine of the previous Chases, and the worst he has ever finished in the standings was sixth in 2011. His five consecutive championships from 2006 through 2010 are a testimony to his dominance, but even in years when he missed the top spot, he has been one of the best at this stage of the season. He finished second in the standings behind Kurt Busch in 2004 and was third last year.

Johnson easily has the best average finish of all Chase contenders. The record book will take a long time to catch up to his dominance because in the first nine years, he won 22 races in the Chase, which equates to 2.4 victories per year. To put that into perspective, the next closest driver is Carl Edwards with 1.3 victories per Chase in six appearances. Johnson’s average finish of 9.2 is also substantially greater than Edwards’ 11.0, which is tied for second-best among this year’s contenders.

Edwards’ average finish of 11.0 makes him a driver to watch this week, but Kevin Harvick is equally appealing. He also has an average finish of 11th as a Chase contender in six appearances. He has only three victories to Johnson’s 22 and Edwards’ eight, so he should be saved for occasions when he has practiced and qualified particularly well.

Drivers With Long Odds

Racing is a zero sum game and for every driver who excels, there are some who struggle. Kyle Busch has made five previous Chase appearances and he has managed to record an average finish of only 18.6. He finished fifth in the 2007 standings, but his other efforts ended in an average result of 10th. Ironically, he runs much faster in the final 10 races of the season when he is not in Chase contention, and last year he scored eight results of seventh or better in these events.

Kasey Kahne
has an average finish of 15.6 in three previous Chase appearances, and he has been somewhat unpredictable throughout the 2013 season. It only takes one or two bad runs to drop a driver from championship contention, and erratic results also make it difficult for fantasy players to place-and-hold a driver in the NASCAR Fantasy Live game.

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Year of discovery with new team, son has put Kenseth in prime position entering Chase

RICHMOND, Va. — Matt Kenseth typically isn’t very comfortable in new environments.

In a sport where change is constant, the 2003 champion of NASCAR’s top series has been a testament to steadiness. Before this season Kenseth had made only one major career move over the course of his 16 years at the national level, that when he jumped from Robbie Reiser’s small Nationwide Series operation to Jack Roush’s powerhouse. And even then, Reiser went along as crew chief.

So it was no small matter when Kenseth left Roush Fenway Racing after last season for a ride at Joe Gibbs Racing. The anxiety was natural, especially on the Monday after last year’s finale at Homestead when he first entered a JGR lobby decorated with championship mementos from both NASCAR and the NFL. His new crew chief, Jason Ratcliff, worked in another building, but Kenseth didn’t yet have a key card for the facility. So he walked up to the receptionist, asked to see Ratcliff, and was welcomed to his new home with a question.

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"And you are?"

These days, the often self-effacing Kenseth laughs about it. "She probably doesn’t like me telling that story over and over," he said. "And I’m not real recognizable anyway. That was the start of it."

That was the start of perhaps Kenseth’s best chance at a championship since he won his first title a decade ago, the start of a season that’s seen him match or exceed personal bests in a number of statistical categories, the start of an assimilation into a new organization that’s appeared so seamless, it feels like Kenseth has been with JGR for far longer than one regular season. Drivers thrive on comfort, and Kenseth has found it in a new place in a short period of time, and it’s translated into a level of performance that has the mild-mannered Wisconsin native as the top seed entering the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

"I’ve worked with a lot of different crew chiefs and crew guys and stuff, but never really switched organizations," Kenseth said. "I actually think of myself as a person that’s not very comfortable in new surroundings, talking in front of new people. That’s kind of the way I view myself more so than other ways. I just think it’s the right people, place and organization for me."

Things clicked almost immediately, plain to see on a team that was the class of the field in the Daytona 500 until suffering a blown engine, and then rebounded to win the third race of the season. Kenseth matched well with Ratcliff, who showed him around the JGR shop that first day after everyone figured out who the new driver was, introducing him to new procedures and personnel. Winter tests of the Generation-6 car helped Kenseth bond with his crew, even if a missed shift required an engine change his first time on the track in his No. 20.

There was no one moment when it all fell into place — there was just a feeling that this was the right move to make, one that’s only grown stronger as the season has progressed. Teammate Kyle Busch said Kenseth was able to quickly get the feeling he was looking for in JGR’s cars, which save for one lull in the early summer have been among the most consistent on the circuit.

"It all starts with that," Kenseth said. "You can be as confident as you want, but if you’re running 22nd and you can’t get your car to work and nothing’s going right, that confidence wanes after a while, no matter who you are. You’re like, ‘Oh, man, maybe I can’t do what I thought I could.’ Obviously, the better you run, that instills more confidence in the whole group, myself included. But that starts with fast cars."

No question, Kenseth has one. And so does one more member of the Kenseth family, requiring the NASCAR champion to find his comfort level in another environment that’s familiar yet different all at the same time.

Just be Dad

Kenseth remembers what it was like to be a kid, a young driver just beginning his climb up the career ladder. He remembers what it was like when his father Roy, himself a racer on the short tracks of Wisconsin, tried to offer unsolicited advice. And he keeps all that in mind these days, as his 20-year-old son Ross progresses deeper into a promising career that included a sixth-place finish in his ARCA debut a month ago.

It all requires a balance. Kenseth may have won over two dozen events at NASCAR’s top level, and he may have started on many of the same tracks his son has, and he may have been a hands-on driver who built his own cars and arranged his own setups back in the day. But now, he’s discovered there are times when he should just be Dad.

"I pretty much learned somewhat the hard way that you should just be Dad. And if he wants any help he can come and find and ask you," Kenseth said. "It’s hard to not give advice, because you see things. But I can remember being a kid, too, and my dad trying to help me with my racing, and being like, ‘OK, Dad, whatever.’ Not that Ross gets like that, but I remember that. I used to race with my dad all the time, so he would always be in my ear, and I’d be like, ‘I’m fine. I know what I’m doing.’

"So some of it is, you’ve got to let them learn for themselves. I see things and I just want to get on the radio so bad and say do this, do that. But some things you just have to learn yourself. And Ross is really fast learner. … I would talk to him for hours about racing and help with anything he wants to be helped with, but I have found at times you’re better off to just step back and let him do it. If he wants some help, he’ll call and ask for it. And if he doesn’t, sometime I don’t give him any. So that seems to work better. I seem to be less of an irritant to him that way."

Also an engineering student at Clemson University, the younger Kenseth has shown some flashes of his old man. He won the All-American 400, a prominent late model event, last year at the Nashville fairgrounds. Driving a car owned by Ken Schrader, Ross won the pole for his ARCA debut at Madison, Wis., and finished sixth as Matt looked on. His father believes Ross is ready for the next step should an opportunity arise.

For Matt, watching Ross progress brings a mixture of pride and anxiety. Kenseth admits he’s gotten nervous a few times watching his son compete, like when Ross is leading in the final laps and another car is catching up, or dueling with a driver he might have had an issue with earlier in the race.  And then there’s the shop, and the high standards of a champion driver who can admittedly be a little uptight about the way things are done. Kenseth is, after all, someone who ran his No. 17 team at Roush as if he were the car owner himself.

In the case of Ross, he often is.

"Nobody does things exactly how you want them done, and I’m pretty anal when it comes to a lot of different things," Matt said. "… When I raced short track stuff before I moved up, I basically did my own stuff. Had a little volunteer help, but I would build my own cars and I’d do them how I want. I’d build my own shocks and set my own cars up and do all that stuff. So I’m used to having my hands on everything."

Which is why he sometimes has to make himself take a step back, and let Ross develop on his own. As with so much this year regarding Kenseth, it’s all about finding that comfort zone.

"It is fun. It is a nice diversion to go up there and watch him," he said. "But it’s still racing."

Pieces in place

When Kyle Busch joined Joe Gibbs Racing before the 2008 season, he and new teammate Denny Hamlin spent the following campaign trying to top one another on the race track. New blood brought with it a new level of competitive intensity, and it’s happened again this year since Kenseth has joined the fold.

"I think he’s everything I hoped for in a teammate," said Hamlin, whose season was marred by a broken vertebra that  forced him to miss most of five races, and scuttled his Chase hopes. "Anything I ever ask him, he’s so open-book about, and he studies hard on data and really works with his crew chief well. So far, it’s been all I could ask for."

It’s certainly seemed to spark Busch, who used a strong surge late in the regular season to emerge as a serious championship contender in his own right. Busch joined JGR and immediately flourished, enjoying what still stands as the best season of his career. The driver of the No. 18 car looks at his first-year teammate, and sees a little of the same thing.

"I think Matt’s been a great asset," Busch said. "I think he’s done a tremendous job of being able to get acclimated to the program quite easily and quickly. … Matt has certainly been on his game so far this year. He likes the way the cars feel, and he’s been able to get the feeling that he’s looking for more often than we have so far. But that’s sort of what I did in 2008 — I came into a fresh program and won eight races, and this looks quite similar to that."

Although Hamlin’s season can be judged only as an incomplete due to the back injury, it seems clear that Kenseth has had as large an impact on JGR as the team has had on him. For an organization once loaded with younger drivers, the 41-year-old brought immediate leadership. JGR has historically had its issues in the Chase, where quality-control problems have hampered championship efforts on behalf of Busch in 2008 and Hamlin last year.

The next 10 races will tell if Kenseth’s hands-on nature will have an effect on that. But everything else seems in place.

"I feel like we’re where we need to be," Kenseth said. "Hopefully, our stuff will run good and we’ll have mechanical reliability and not get in accidents, that kind of thing. If we have all that, I feel like we’re competitive enough to race with them just on speed. Pit road, we’re as good as anybody. If we have all that, if I don’t make mistakes, if we don’t break parts and crash … I feel confident that we can go race with anybody."

Although he won the title a decade ago, Kenseth was also a factor in the 2006 race that resulted in Jimmie Johnson’s first championship. That year Kenseth led the Chase with two races remaining, eventually finishing 56 points back in the runner-up position. With the top Chase seed in hand, he’s in position to make his most serious title run since.

"This is the most wins I’ve ever had in a season, especially to this point," he said. "Probably the most laps we’ve ever led in a season, and best qualifying position. The speed has been there. So if it’s just on speed and there are no other issues, I feel like for sure it is our best shot."


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