During a meeting with NASCAR Cup Series crew chiefs on Thursday, NASCAR officials clarified procedures surrounding its Damaged Vehicle Policy for the rest of the 2024 Cup Series season.
Officials will operate the policy following the same guidelines used in the Oct. 6 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs race at Talladega Superspeedway. In simplest terms, if a vehicle has flattened tires and appears able to continue but cannot be driven back, the car will be towed back to its pit stall, allowing the team to change tires and assess and repair its damage under the allotted seven-minute timeframe.
Confusion surrounding the DVP rule came into play most recently at Kansas Speedway on Sept. 29. In a Lap 1 incident exiting Turn 2, Josh Berry‘s No. 4 Ford was struck in the right rear and sent into a slide. Damage appeared minimal, but under the previous officiating of the DVP, Berry’s Ford was deemed out of the race and ineligible to be towed to the pit stall because he was unable to continue after contact, ending his race.
One week later at Talladega, a 28-car pileup in the closing laps resulted in numerous damaged cars stranded with flat tires at the entrance of Turn 3. Playoff contenders Chase Elliott and Chase Briscoe both incurred damage but were towed back to their stalls to allow for repairs.
The clarification comes at the midpoint of the NASCAR Cup Series postseason, with the Round of 12 elimination race on deck at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, NBC, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
NASCAR Cup Series spotter Eddie D’Hondt will move to the No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet with driver Justin Haley starting in 2025, he announced Friday on social media.
D’Hondt currently spots for the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford for Josh Berry. With SHR’s impending closure and Berry’s next move signed to join Wood Brothers Racing next season, D’Hondt will stick with crew chief Rodney Childers in a pivot to the No. 7 Chevrolet.
As the result of a trade between Spire and Rick Ware Racing, Haley joined the No. 7 team starting at Kansas Speedway on Sept. 29 and signed a multiyear deal with the team. D’Hondt also announced his shift to Spire on a multiyear basis.
Before joining SHR for the 2024 campaign, D’Hondt spent the prior 12 years at Hendrick Motorsports spotting for both Jeff Gordon and Chase Elliott, collecting 18 victories and the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series championship with Elliott.
In two races since joining Spire Motorsports with current crew chief Ryan Sparks, Haley has wheeled the No. 7 Chevrolet to a 33rd-place finish at Kansas and a seventh-place result last weekend at Talladega Superspeedway.
NASCAR.com’s 36 for 36 continues at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.
With 36 races and 36 full-time Charter cars, our players select one car per race, but there’s a simple twist: once they’ve made the pick, they can’t choose that car again for the rest of the 36-race season. Yes, that means every car will be selected exactly once … a survivor pool, by another name.
Follow along weekly as our panel of pickers — Dustin Albino from Jayski, along with Steve Luvender and Cameron Richardson from NASCAR.com — embarks on a season-long journey to think like strategists and prove their picking prowess.
We’ll also feature a fourth “community” 36 for 36 pick each week, as decided by fan vote on the r/NASCAR subreddit. Can the collective vote topple our trio of full-timers?
Current Standings:
Steve Luvender: 782
Dustin Albino: -69
r/NASCAR Community: -92
Cameron Richardson: -144
Race 32 of 36: Charlotte Roval
A huge crash last week at Talladega Superspeedway made for not only playoff implications but also had an impact on 36 for 36. Second-place player Dustin Albino needed a solid day, but his pick of Daniel Hemric was among those taken out by the massive crash, earning him just one point. The NASCAR subreddit community pick of Noah Gragson earned 12 points from a 25th-place finish, while Cody Ware earned 25 points for Steve Luvender and Cameron Richardson.
The final road-course race of the year will challenge our pickers next. Keeping in mind, it’s also an elimination race for the Round of 12, will players go for a safe bet or swing for the fences?
Jayski’s Dustin Albino: No. 7, Justin Haley
Dustin’s pick last week: No. 31, Daniel Hemric (1 point)
Total season points: 713 (second place)
Dustin: Just when I thought it couldn’t get any worse, my Talladega pick earned me a whopping one point. Hemric spent a good chunk of the race inside the top 10 but was involved in the 27-car melee. Full transparency — I strategically held off on using Corey LaJoie, knowing that he’s improved a considerable amount on road courses. But then an unconventional driver trade between Spire Motorsports and Rick Ware Racing occurred last month. That’s not necessarily a bad thing because Haley is a proven competitor on road courses, finishing runner-up in the inaugural Chicago Street Race. He also rounded out the top five in the 2022 Charlotte Roval race.
NASCAR.com’s Steve Luvender: No. 16, AJ Allmendinger
Steve’s pick last week: No. 15, Cody Ware (25 points)
Total season points: 782 (first place)
Steve: Back at the Chicago Street Race in July, it took great restraint not to use my No. 16 pick when Shane van Gisbergen raced to defend his 2023 win. I suspected that the Roval was a better bet with AJ Allmendinger behind the wheel, who’s nothing short of otherworldly when it comes to this track. The defending race winner has a 100-percent win rate in the Xfinity Series — four for four — and I’m hopeful he delivers another big day on Sunday.
Cameron’s pick last week: No. 15, Cody Ware (25 points)
Total season points: 638 (fourth place)
Cameron: The No. 54 of Ty Gibbs was the initial plan for the Charlotte Roval, but with only a 13-point gap above the elimination line, I’m going with the 2020 Cup champ as he’ll need to go for as many points as possible in the first two stages. Elliott is the only multi-time winner in the six-race history at the oval/road course hybrid. He also holds an average finish of 8.2 entering Sunday’s race, which is third best among active Cup drivers. The only outlier among Elliott’s Roval results is a 20th-place run in 2022 after being spun in the closing laps.
r/NASCAR Community: No. 54, Ty Gibbs
r/NASCAR’s pick last week: No. 10, Noah Gragson (12 points)
Total season points: 690 (third place)
Redditors have spoken, and Ty Gibbs has been voted the NASCAR subreddit’s community pick in this week’s voting thread. Here’s what they had to say:
u/Extreme-Bite-9123: “Gibbs here. He’s a really Good road racer, and excels at the rovals especially (beat Cindric in his first start on the Daytona RC)”
u/miangro: “He’s going to go for the win. Reddick and Blaney probably going for stage points.”
u/Dont_hate_the_8: “I say Gibbs. He’s solid on RCs, and no other track on the schedule left jumps out at me for him.”
Check back next week to see how our pickers fared as the season-long 36 for 36 journey continues.
And, if you’ve got a competitive itch beyond meticulously managing your Fantasy Live lineup each week, feel free to save or print your own 36 for 36 sheet and see if you can beat our pickers and the Reddit community!
Throughout the 2024 NASCAR season, Ken Martin, director of historical content for the sanctioning body, will offer his suggestions on which historical races fans should watch from the NASCAR Classics library in preparation for each upcoming race weekend.
Martin has worked exclusively for NASCAR since 2008 but has been involved with the sport since 1982, overseeing various projects. He has worked in the broadcast booth for hundreds of races, assisting the broadcast team with different tasks. This includes calculating the “points as they run” for the historic 1992 finale, the Hooters 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
The following suggestions are Ken’s picks to watch before this Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway (2 p.m. ET, NBC, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
Changes came to Charlotte Motor Speedway in 2018, as the usual autumn affair on the oval was exchanged for a road-course configuration inside of the track.
The annual October oval event had been a staple on the schedule since the track debuted in 1960. The fresh new configuration brought a breath of excitement to the North Carolina venue, as the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs now had some new twists and turns for the first time.
To top off the anticipation, the race was the first elimination race of the playoffs. Following the race, the playoff field was set to be cut from 16 drivers to 12.
Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch won the first two races of the round, punching their ticket to the second round and allowing them to be relatively stress-free heading into the race at the Roval.
All 16 playoff drivers finished in the first 19 spots at Richmond Raceway the previous race, creating a tight battle for those drivers looking to continue their championship push. Ten drivers were separated by just 27 points, with the uncertainty of the new course looming.
The top 15 fastest qualifiers were littered with playoff drivers, as Kurt Busch put his No. 41 Ford on the pole for the race.
Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney won the first two stages of the race, while Martin Truex Jr. was collected in an incident involving Keselowski. Both drivers were able to continue.
Fast forward to the final 10 laps, and a restart with six laps remaining changed the entire landscape of the inaugural event.
Keselowski made a mistake entering the first turn, setting off a 14-car incident that involved multiple playoff drivers. This brought out the red flag as track workers cleaned up following the chaos.
Truex Jr. had control of the lead, as Jimmie Johnson followed him in second place. Johnson was in a spot to advance but was not safe, barring an unfortunate event. Johnson decided to race for the victory anyway.
Johnson made a move on Truex as the two came to the checkered flag, as both drivers spun. This allowed Blaney to pass both drivers and capture the victory. Johnson was able to get his car going rather quickly and bring it home in eighth position.
The race for the victory wasn’t the only battle going on, as Larson and Aric Almirola were in a tight battle for a spot to advance. Larson’s dramatic final moments on the final lap ended up pushing him into the second round and knocking out Johnson in the process.
The Busch brothers, Keselowski, Blaney, Truex and Larson all moved on, while Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Aric Almirola and Alex Bowman joined them.
The second annual NASCAR Cup Series race at the Charlotte Roval turned out to be yet another thriller.
Chase Elliott looked to be the most dominant car throughout the first half of the race, leading two times for 28 laps. That was until a spin just after halfway involving the No. 8 car of Daniel Hemric changed everything.
Well, almost.
On the ensuing restart, Elliott locked up his breaks heading into Turn 1 and sailed into the tire barrier, seemingly ending his chances at a victory. The incident sent Elliott to the pits and back to 37th in the running order.
What followed was an incredible march through the field for the driver from Dawsonville, Georgia.
A handful of cautions helped Elliott stay close, eventually leading the final six laps and winning the race by just over three seconds.
Another driver who came up clutch was Elliott’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Alex Bowman, who started the race at the back of the field. He needed to utilize a backup car after a practice crash.
Bowman entered the race in a heated battle to advance to the next round of the playoffs and promptly started the weekend out strong by qualifying second, behind another teammate, William Byron.
His run to the front wasn’t without excitement and controversy, as he spun on the first lap and later made contact with the No. 43 car of Bubba Wallace.
Bowman’s second-place finish prevented Aric Almirola, Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch from advancing, while Erik Jones also failed to make the cut into the second round.
2021 looked like Kyle Larson’s world and the rest of the NASCAR Cup Series drivers were just living in it.
Larson, in his first year driving the No. 5 car for Rick Hendrick, lit the world on fire throughout the first 26 races on the schedule.
He won in his fourth start with the team at Las Vegas and later on notched three straight victories at Charlotte, Sonoma and Nashville. He almost made it four-in-a-row, if not for a last-lap flat tire at Pocono.
Overall, throughout the first 31 races of the season, Larson had visited Victory Lane six times while adding six second-place finishes and two-thirds.
Larson struggled at Talladega to a 37th-place finish but still entered the race at the Charlotte Roval in a comfortable spot to continue his quest for his first Cup Series championship.
It wasn’t any surprise that Larson ended the race in Victory Lane, the third time in 2021 that he ended a road-course event in the same spot.
The race saw a rekindling of a new rivalry between Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott, which in turn saw Harvick miss being one of the eight drivers to advance into the next round.
Harvick made contact with Elliott, sending him into the wall. Later, he locked up his front tires before hitting the wall and ending his chances of advancement.
The other drivers who saw their championship hopes dashed at the Roval included Larson’s teammates William Byron and Alex Bowman, as well as Christopher Bell.
This set up to have Larson, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, Elliott, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski battle it out over the final four races of the season in hopes of hoisting the Cup Series trophy.
Larson continued his dominance and cemented himself as the championship frontrunner by winning the following two events at Texas and Kansas before ending his season at Phoenix with a victory and his first title.
NASCAR has joined a powerful new campaign in conjunction with national sports leagues that encourages sports fans across North America to take a ‘#Timeout Against Hate. Premiering today, the campaign and ad spot features 2023 NASCAR Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney alongside other famous coaches and athletes and was developed by Robert Kraft’s Foundation to Combat Antisemitism (FCAS).
#Timeout Against Hate spotlights the various sports figures calling a “timeout,” turning the common sports gesture into a national call against hate. The new spot anchors the first-of-its-kind campaign, which was designed to unite major sports leagues, its commissioners, and star athletes to champion the fight against all hate.
The campaign was inspired by and created from a closed-door meeting between FCAS founder Robert Kraft and major sports commissioners earlier this year as an opportunity for each league to take a larger, active role in propelling the fight against all forms of hate.
The meeting included Steve Phelps, NASCAR President, and top league executives including Rob Manfred, Major League Baseball (MLB), Don Garber, Major League Soccer (MLS), Adam Silver, National Basketball Association (NBA), Cathy Engelbert, Women’s National Basketball Association (WNBA), Roger Goodell, National Football League (NFL), Gary Bettman, National Hockey League (NHL) and Jessica Berman, National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL).
The historic moment marked the first time all commissioners came together collectively in-person, signifying the importance of this mission.
“This is an unprecedented show of unity among sports leagues in the fight against hate and we’re proud to be part of this important effort,” said Steve Phelps, NASCAR President. “NASCAR is committed to doing its part to actively stamp out hate in its many forms and this new campaign represents the continuation of that spirit.”
“The ‘#Timeout Against Hate’ campaign represents a powerful convergence of sports icons and leaders who are committed to fighting hate in all its forms,” said Robert Kraft, Founder of the Foundation to Combat Antisemitism. “In sports, we call a ‘timeout’ when things are heading in the wrong direction and right now, in our country, hate is winning, and we need to change the momentum. Bringing together the commissioners of North America’s major sports leagues for this campaign is a historic and crucial step in our fight against all hate. By uniting under a common cause, we amplify our message and demonstrate that the power of sports extends beyond stadiums, arenas and fields, and into our communities. This initiative is a call to action for everyone to join us in creating a world where hate is met with a unified stand for empathy, understanding, and respect.”
In addition to Blaney, driver of the No. 12 Team Penske Ford Mustang, the new spot includes the following sports legends and rising stars:
39-time Grand Slam winner and International Tennis Hall of Fame inductee, Billie Jean King
NBA analyst and four-time NBA Champion, Shaquille O’Neal
President of Adidas Women’s Basketball and three-time WNBA champion, Candace Parker
Los Angeles Chargers head coach, Jim Harbaugh
Milwaukee Bucks coach, Doc Rivers
USWNT Olympic Gold Medalist and Gotham FC center back, Tierna Davidson
Columbus Crew head coach, 2023 MLS Champion, Wilfred Nancy
Former New York Yankees manager and four-time World Series Champion, Joe Torre
Edmonton Oilers forward and 2024 Western Conference Champion, Zach Hyman
The #Timeout Against Hate campaign will make its broadcast premiere Thursday as part of Amazon’s Thursday Night Football programming between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. In addition to broadcast, the campaign will be visible on other digital platforms, social media, and on out of home billboards featuring the bespoke #Timeout hand signal to reach Americans across the country.
What was once a two-horse race for the NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour championship has quickly turned into a three-way battle for supremacy with three races left in the 2024 season.
Ron Silk and Justin Bonsignore continue to lead the standings, with Silk holding an 11-point advantage on Bonsignore. However, Patrick Emerling has emerged as a third contender thanks to three victories in the last four series events.
“We had a lot of optimism going into this year,” said Emerling, who is in his first season driving for rookie Modified Tour team owner Rich Gautreau. “There was a lot of excitement. For a first-year team, we actually started off the year pretty solid.”
For much of the season, Emerling has been playing catchup. He started the year with a fourth-place finish at New Smyrna Speedway, an impressive result for a team that only a few months prior didn’t exist.
The next race at Richmond Raceway didn’t go nearly as well. Emerling qualified 11th and raced near the front of the field much of the day before being collected in a crash not of his making and finishing a disappointing 24th.
Patrick Emerling has won three of the last four NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour events to quickly insert himself in the championship conversation (Photo: Jaiden Tripi/NASCAR)
“In my opinion we were the fastest race car (at Richmond),” said Emerling. “A pit penalty and getting wrecked out there, that kind of set us back.”
Since that race at Richmond, Emerling and company have been putting in the work to get better and get caught up.
“We had some decent runs here and there,” Emerling said. “We were showing up with pretty good cars. There was a point where we just started getting into our groove.”
They started to hit their stride during the summer months with finishes of fourth at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, third at Monadnock Speedway and second at Lancaster Motorplex.
Then came Thompson Speedway Motorsports Park on Aug. 14. On that day, there was no one better than Emerling and the No. 1 team.
Emerling was fastest in practice, won the Mayhew Tools Dominator Pole Award and led all 150 laps to earn his first victory of the season and his first at one of the Modified Tour’s most historic venues.
The dominating performance was the first time a driver had led every lap in a Modified Tour even at Thompson since 1997, more 25 years ago.
The win meant many things to Emerling, but perhaps most importantly, it showed the speed the No. 1 team is capable of when everything goes according to plan.
“I always had a disadvantage at Thompson because other teams just don’t screw up there,” said Emerling. “All the drivers in the series, they are really good at that track. So to beat these other cars at Thompson, it’s one of the hardest places you can win at.
“It’s different than going to Lancaster or Oswego, where I maybe know the track more than the other guys. At Thompson, everyone is really good there. That was pretty awesome, and that’s really hard to do at that race track.”
Patrick Emerling celebrates after winning at Thompson Speedway Motorsports Park earlier this season. (Photo: Jaiden Tripi/NASCAR)
Since that win at Thompson, things have only gotten better for Emerling.
He won again in the next race at Oswego Speedway, which he followed with a fourth-place run at Riverhead Raceway. He then won again at Monadnock, his third win in four Whelen Modified Tour races.
All that while the rivalry between Silk and Bonsignore has reached a near boiling point. Silk and Bonsignore clashed for the win at Riverhead during the Eddie Partridge 256, with Silk ultimately prevailing after contact between the two left Bonsignore with a broken part in the left-front of his Modified.
Things continued to intensify at Monadnock, where Silk and Bonsignore made contact late in the race, resulting in Silk spinning and both drivers dropping to the tail of the field. They made contact again coming to the checkered flag, with Silk finishing seventh and Bonsignore eighth while Emerling won.
The wins, combined with the battle between Silk and Bonsignore getting even more aggressive, has allowed Emerling to go from 39 points out of the championship lead after the event at Lancaster on Aug. 3 to just 16 points back entering Sunday’s World Series 150 at Thompson.
“It’s racing, and anything can happen,” said Emerling, whose three wins has matched his career-best win total from 2021, when he finished the year second in the Modified Tour standings. “Our goal is to go out there and win races, and that’s what we’ve been doing. We’ve just got to stick with that goal.”
Emerling’s focus isn’t on the rivalry between Silk and Bonsignore. That’s something he can’t control. Something he can control is how he races the next three events at Thompson, North Wilkesboro Speedway and Martinsville Speedway.
If things continue to go well starting Sunday at Thompson, then he sees no reason why he won’t be in the thick of the title fight by the time the Modified Tour season reaches its crescendo at Martinsville on Oct. 26.
“The way the whole Fleetworks No. 1 team has been running lately, I don’t think it’s out of the question to go (win at Thompson),” Emerling said. “As a race team, you’re not always going to hit the nail on the head at every single race track every week. Lately, we’ve been good, and we’re really confident coming into this race.
“Track conditions could be a little bit different, but I think we’re pretty excited to get back up there.”
ROCKINGHAM, N.C. — The historic Rockingham Speedway will welcome back the roar of NASCAR in 2025. Today, event promoter Track Enterprises announced the ARCA Menards Series East will join the NASCAR XFINITY and NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series on April 18-19, 2025.
The ARCA Menards Series East features established veterans and NASCAR’s next stars who compete primarily on the East Coast as a top-tiered development series owned by NASCAR. The 2024 ARCA Menards East Series season concluded last month and crowned two-time series champion William Sawalich, who is expected to step into a full-time NASCAR National Series ride next year.
Past ARCA East champions include NASCAR Cup Series stars Kyle Larson, Joey Logano and William Byron.
“We are excited to showcase these great NASCAR development drivers and established teams on Saturday, April 19th along with the NASCAR XFINITY Series,” said Bob Sargent, President of Track Enterprises. “They all know the importance and impact of racing on the same day as the XFINITY Series, just like several teams will in Daytona in February. We also expect established ARCA Menards Series teams the likes of Joe Gibbs Racing and Pinnacle Racing Group to compete for the win at Rockingham Speedway.”
The East Series in action at Rockingham Speedway on Nov. 3, 2012. (Photo: Streeter Lecka/Getty Images for NASCAR)
The ARCA Menards Series held five races at The Rock starting in 1973 won by the legendary Charlie Glotzbach. The series returned in 2008 in an event won by Logano, the year after he captured the ARCA Menards Series East drivers championship. The most recent ARCA event in 2010 was won by 2011 ARCA Menards Series champion Ty Dillon.
“Returning to Rockingham Speedway with the NASCAR Xfinity and CRAFTSMAN Truck Series is a great opportunity for the ARCA Menards East,” said Ron Drager, president of ARCA. “We respect and appreciate the history and tradition associated with Rockingham, and we are excited to be a part of this new chapter.”
Several facility upgrades will be completed in time for NASCAR’s return to The Rock, which last hosted the CRAFTSMAN Truck Series in 2013. That race was won by 2012 ARCA Menards Series East champion Kyle Larson in what was his first NASCAR National Series victory.
The Saturday, April 19 ARCA Menards Series East race will precede the 43rd NASCAR XFINITY Series race to be held at Rockingham Speedway. Preliminary on-track activities for the two series are expected to take place on Friday, April 18, which is race day for the CRAFTSMAN Truck Series.
“The positive reaction across the industry and here in Richmond County has been strong since our event was announced in late August,” added Sargent. “Rockingham Speedway owner Dan Lovenheim and his staff are working hard to be ready when we welcome back fans to Rockingham Speedway. We urge all NASCAR fans to log on to www.RaceTheRock.com right now to register to receive updates and pre-sale access to race tickets before they go on sale.”
Tickets for NASCAR’s return to Rockingham Speedway will go on sale Friday, Nov. 1 at 10 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time. For ticket and camping information, sponsor inquiries, continuing details and updates, log on to www.RaceTheRock.com, the official NASCAR event website for the April 18-19, 2025 weekend at Rockingham Speedway.
Talk about pressure: The current field of 12 playoff drivers vying for the 2024 Cup Series title will soon be trimmed to just eight — all hinging on what goes down at a unique 2.28-mile road-course/oval hybrid in Charlotte, where five different winners have emerged in the six races that have been held there.
So let’s buckle up and dive into the numbers on the state of the championship race, with a particular focus on which drivers have the inside track to advance and what they need to do to make that happen. As a guide, we use my NASCAR playoff odds model, which simulates the rest of the playoffs 10,000 times and tracks how often each driver makes the Round of 8, the Championship 4 and, ultimately, wins the title at Phoenix.
At the top of the Round of 12 advancement odds, we have points leader William Byron at 100 percent, locked into the next round — his 74-point cushion over the elimination line mathematically insulates him from dropping outside the top eight, no matter what happens at the Roval. A few others have all but clinched as well: Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson are both at least 52 points on the good side of the line at a race where only two drivers have ever broken the 50-point barrier (Ryan Blaney, with 51 in 2018, and Chase Elliott, with 52 in 2019). While still technically possible, it would be extremely unlikely for Bell or Larson to do poorly enough – and for one or more drivers currently below the line to do spectacularly enough – to leave either outside the Round of 8.
A few more names on the list have odds in excess of 95 percent: Denny Hamlin and Alex Bowman, both of whom scratched out solid finishes amidst the chaos at the end of Sunday’s race.
Hamlin is 30 points above the line and would have to drop below five drivers in order to fall out of the next round. It’s not impossible, but in the simulations where Hamlin failed to advance, he scored an average of just 4.2 points with an average finish of 33.2 – compare that with his career average finish at the Roval of 16.8, finishing outside the top 20 just once. Barring a terrible finish, plus a win from a driver beneath him in the standings (which happened in 53% of simulations where he didn’t advance) and/or a few other strong runs from drivers below him, Hamlin ought to make it to the next round.
A similar story goes for Bowman, who’ll carry a 26-point cushion into one of his best tracks on Sunday. To get knocked out, he’d have to run poorly – his average finish in non-advancing simulations was 31.8 – at a place he’s never finished lower than 10th, while a handful of drivers below him in the standings simultaneously have stellar days. It could happen, but it’s not very likely. Here are the chances for advancement for Hamlin and Bowman based on how many points they score at Charlotte in our simulated races:
Below that duo, we shift into the realm of drivers who are still in decent shape – between 80% and 92% to move on – but need to make sure they take care of business on Sunday.
Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott all have a clear path to move on, despite each getting caught up in the carnage at Talladega. Blaney, for instance, finished second-to-last a week ago, but his leftover 25-point cushion over ninth place in the standings is a nice insurance policy. Given that, plus his good (if not great) résumé on road courses, he would need something wild to happen to get locked out of the next round.
For Reddick, it’s all about cashing in on the opportunity to close out the round at one of his bread-and-butter track types. He’s one of the favorites at the Roval whether we look at the betting odds or the statistical history; he has four top-eight finishes in five tries there, and has never finished worse than 12th. When Reddick finishes top 15 in our simulations at Charlotte, he makes the Round of 8 at a 98% clip. The exact same thing can be said for Elliott, who was once the Cup Series’ clear-cut best road racer – he has two career wins at the Roval and has finished worse than 12th just once in six career starts.
That’s not to say we’re not also in the range of drivers where the pressure is building to high levels, however. Using the forecast model, I have a measure of “leverage” for each driver in a given race, based on how much their odds figure to swing (relative to their current state) depending on how they finish. Here are those rankings for this weekend’s race:
Despite their solid odds, Blaney, Reddick and Elliott are also among the drivers facing the highest pressure. And they’re very much joined in that group by a pair of playoff drivers currently sitting below the line: Joey Logano and Daniel Suárez.
(This note comes with apologies to Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe, who are both below 5% to advance, according to the model, and probably need wins to make it through. Conditional on not winning, Cindric only has a 2.9% chance to move on, while that number for Briscoe is just 1.3%.)
Logano and Suárez are the wild cards that will determine the entire playoff picture on Sunday. In simulations where Joey finishes top 10, his odds of making the Round of 8 rise from their current level of 27% to 71% – making him the single driver who most benefits from a strong run. (Suárez is second by that measure, rising from 11% to 42% with a top 10 at Charlotte.) And Logano, in particular, will be the nemesis of every driver hovering above the cutline. In simulations where at least one of Hamlin, Blaney, Bowman, Elliott or Reddick fail to advance, Logano has an average finish of 12.5; in simulations where they all make it, Logano’s average finish is 21.5.
This isn’t to say Logano completely controls the destiny of both himself and every other driver on the bubble for the Round of 8. He can have a strong run and still miss the next round, depending on who else does well. But each of their chances of advancing are negatively correlated with Logano’s, and most likely, they can’t all make it through.
That means everyone among that pack must know where Joey is at all times (and vice-versa) in order to maximize their odds of staying in the championship hunt on Sunday.
1. How many Hendrick drivers will land in the Championship 4?
It feels inevitable that Hendrick Motorsports will have a presence in the title hunt at Phoenix. The question is not “if” — it’s “how many?”
Sure, William Byron hasn’t won a race since the first week of April, but hey — he’s the first and only driver locked into the Round of 8 as the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs roll into a Round of 12 elimination race Sunday at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.
Nothing is ever set in stone here, but with wins at each of the three Round of 8 tracks in the past three years, Byron’s chances at this point to make the Championship 4 for a second straight year are as good as a driver can hope to have at this point.
With one driver not sweating on Sunday and the other three all above the elimination line, it begs the question — how many from Hendrick Motorsports’ quartet advance to not only the Round of 8, but also the Championship 4?
Two (Byron and 2021 champ Kyle Larson) made it last year, so anything fewer would be a disappointment, but is three on the table? Is four?
Chase Elliott is a past champion and has been one of the season’s most consistent performers, while Alex Bowman has been arguably the best driver in the playoffs, halfway home to a surprising emergence as a serious title contender.
Right now, though, No. 24 stands out as the only playoff driver locked into the Round of 8 after navigating the chaos at Talladega unscathed. His season has been remarkable, albeit streaky, and the way the Round of 8 sets up for him will make him a tough out for his competitors.
But the most interesting twist to the playoffs has been Bowman.
The No. 48 driver’s postseason surge has emerged as one of the most compelling narratives this fall, after the midsummer rumor mill had some in the garage (incorrectly) questioning his 2025 status at Hendrick. Since then, all he’s done is lead the playoffs with 189 points through five races — 13 more points than any other driver — increasing his average points per race from 25.6 in the regular season to 37.8 in the playoffs. The 12.2-point increase is the third-largest jump among drivers in the stage era, and he’s likely to pad that even further this weekend, as Bowman leads all drivers with 146 points earned on road courses this season.
A 26-point buffer isn’t “safe” by any means, but given how much Bowman has going for him heading into arguably his best track, we can probably pencil him in for the Round of 8. The question from there becomes: will he make his first Championship 4? Right now, it’s easier to make the case that he will than he won’t.
Despite facing uncertainty heading into Talladega, Kyle Larson remains a strong candidate for a Championship 4 berth after escaping the mercurial superspeedway with a top five. The 2021 champion’s performance this season has been characterized by resilience and speed — and dominance. The five-time 2024 winner continues to be the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 title, and as one of the best road racers in the sport we can probably expect him in the Round of 8, too. He’ll be licking his chops to get to those Round of 8 tracks as well, and there’s a legit shot Hendrick drivers sweep that round outright.
Elliott’s position heading into Charlotte is perhaps the most intriguing among Hendrick drivers as the sport’s most popular driver looks to regain footing atop the stock-car racing world after missing the playoffs entirely last year. Elliott also hasn’t won since April and, though he’s found some consistency throughout most of the season, enters the weekend as the last driver in with a relatively flimsy 13-point cushion after a subpar Talladega result.
Then again, there aren’t many situations you’d feel more comfortable in than with this driver at this track in terms of advancing, so expect the only two-time Roval winner to do at least enough to advance, if not take the trophy home himself.
So, wait — that’s one driver already in the Round of 8, with the other three having extremely good chances to join him … meaning we could see Hendrick drivers making up half of the Round of 8. And, remember, that’s a Round of 8 that sets up quite nicely for all four of them.
Again, the smart money is on at least two Hendrick drivers — Byron and Larson probably being the safest bets — making this year’s Championship 4. Don’t for a second count out Bowman, though, as his playoff performance has been nothing short of revelatory. And Elliott has felt on the precipice of dominance all season; it wouldn’t be the biggest shock to still see him win more than one race the rest of the way en route to his second title.
Whether it’s two, three, or even an unprecedented sweep of spots in the Championship 4, Hendrick is poised to be in serious contention to add another Bill France Cup to its arsenal. The most impressive thing, though, with just five weeks remaining in the season?
You get the sense any of them could do it.
Keenan Hairston | Getty Images
2. Will we see a Round of 12 sweep by non-playoff drivers?
Drivers hoping for a win to claim their Round of 8 spot will have to contend with a slew of drivers outside the postseason capable of winning at the Roval.
Alright, now that you’re surely expecting a Hendrick driver to win Sunday — here I am to tell you that, well, actually, we might be about to see the clean sweep of the Round of 12 by non-playoff drivers.
As the final race of the Round of 12 looms, there’s perhaps little reason to think we’ll see anything at all that we expect to see; such is the theme of the unpredictable 2024 season. After a pair of non-playoff drivers snatched up wins at Kansas Speedway and Talladega, there’s a strong chance we see a third at the Roval; after all, Xfinity Series regular AJ Allmendinger won last year’s race.
Consider this as well: the last nine races have witnessed nine different winners from nine different teams, a feat unseen since 2001-02, and there are some road-course specialists yet to win this year circling like sharks sensing blood in the water. Front Row Motorsports’ Michael McDowell enters as one of the top dark horses, with a streak of three consecutive top-10 finishes on road courses — the longest active run among drivers – looking to close out his long run at FRM on a high note before shifting to Spire Motorsports next year.
“The Roval is super challenging. It’s not your typical road course,” McDowell told Ford Performance. “It’s a technical challenge, tight, twisty, big curbs; the turtles, they call them. There are a lot of challenges at those places, so I’m looking forward to it. Anytime I get to race on a road course, I’m happy about it, and it’s an opportunity again to try to go there and win the race.”
Allmendinger will be looking to make his mark in Cup before once again moving back up to the full-time ranks next year. With an average finish of 2.5 at the Roval in the Next Gen car and a perfect 4-for-4 win record in Xfinity Series races here, it’s likely that barring a mechanical failure, the race winner will have to contend with him at some point.
The implications of a non-playoff sweep are potentially seismic, too. Historically, 36% of drivers ranked outside the top eight entering the Round of 12 have advanced to the next round in the stage era. A win by a hungry driver like Kyle Busch, with top-five finishes in the last three Roval races, or Chris Buescher, boasting the best average finish on road courses in the Next Gen car, could prevent one of the four drivers currently below the elimination line — Joey Logano, Daniel Suárez, Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe — from advancing.
Drew Blickensderfer and Luke Lambert discuss Charlotte Motor Speedway’s Roval reconfigurations and how it will affect Sunday’s race.
4. Average points per race in regular season vs. playoffs
Regular-season success does not guarantee future gains in the playoffs — but the opposite is true, too. Just ask teammates Alex Bowman and Kyle Larson.
Driver
Regular season
Playoffs
Difference
Alex Bowman
25.6
37.8
+12.2
Austin Cindric
19.6
25.4
+5.8
William Byron
29.2
34.4
+5.2
Christopher Bell
30.1
35.2
+5.1
Daniel Suárez
21.0
22.8
+1.8
Joey Logano
23.7
24.4
+0.7
Ryan Blaney
29.1
28.2
-0.9
Chase Elliott
32.0
28.8
-1.2
Chase Briscoe
22.0
20.8
-1.2
Denny Hamlin
31.9
28.4
-4.5
Kyle Larson
34.4
28.4
-6.0
Tyler Reddick
33.1
20.6
-12.5
5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
The Bank of America ROVAL 400 on Sunday (2 p.m. ET on NBC, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) is the last chance for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff contenders to secure their spot in the Round of 8. After races at Kansas Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway, only one driver has locked himself into the Round of 8 — William Byron (clinched on points) — heading into this weekend, leaving 11 playoff contenders vying for just seven positions.
The following driver has clinched a spot in the eight-driver field of the next round: William Byron.
Can Clinch Via Points
If there is a repeat winner or a win by a driver who cannot advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the ninth winless driver in the standings. The same point requirements listed below would hold true if a new win comes from among William Byron, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick or Chase Elliott.
Christopher Bell: Would clinch regardless of finish
Kyle Larson: Would clinch with 4 points
Denny Hamlin: Would clinch with 26 points
Alex Bowman: Would clinch with 30 points
Ryan Blaney: Would clinch with 31 points
Tyler Reddick: Would clinch with 42 points
Chase Elliott: Would clinch with 43 points
Joey Logano: Could only clinch with help
Daniel Suárez: Could only clinch with help
Austin Cindric: Could only clinch with help
Chase Briscoe: Could only clinch with help
If there is a new winner from Joey Logano or another winless driver lower in the standings but still eligible to advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the eighth winless driver in the standings.
Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 11 points
Kyle Larson: Would clinch with 16 points
Denny Hamlin: Would clinch with 38 points
Alex Bowman: Would clinch with 42 points
Ryan Blaney: Would clinch with 43 points
Tyler Reddick: Would clinch with 54 points
Chase Elliott: Would clinch with 55 points
Joey Logano: Could only clinch with help
Daniel Suárez: Could only clinch with help
Austin Cindric: Could only clinch with help
Chase Briscoe: Could only clinch with help
Can Clinch Via Win
The following drivers would clinch on their win alone:
Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Daniel Suaáez, Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe.
