The Field of 16: Projecting the Cup Series Playoffs entering Daytona

Posted on August 23, 2024August 23, 2024 by Cameron Richardson

Editor’s Note: Racing Insights’ playoff projections use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points.

With the Cup Series Playoffs on the mind throughout the season, what if there was a way to project how the 16-driver field could look before each race weekend?

It now exists via Racing Insights. From now until the start of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, “The Field of 16” will give fans a weekly look at where their favorite drivers could potentially land in the postseason field — and the likelihood of having a shot at the Bill France Cup.

Here’s this week’s update on the projections heading into Daytona International Speedway.

NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS POST-MICHIGAN

DRIVER	AT MICHIGAN	ENTERING DAYTONA	DIFFERENCE
Ty Gibbs	62.63%	80.19%	+17.56
Ross Chastain	56.39%	56.85%	+0.46
Chris Buescher	71.90%	70.15%	-1.75
Bubba Wallace	71.12%	63.26%	-7.86

PROBABILITY CALCULATED BY RACING INSIGHTS AHEAD OF COKE ZERO SUGAR 400, AUGUST 24, 2024

DRIVERS SOLIDLY IN PLAYOFF PICTURE

After winning last week’s race at Michigan, Tyler Reddick has now jumped into first place in the Cup Series standings by 10 points over Chase Elliott. Reddick, driver of the No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota, has been the hottest driver in NASCAR this summer and on one of the most impressive runs in recent memory. Going back to the Coca-Cola 600, he’s finished inside the top 10 in every race except for Iowa.

Elliott (-10) and Kyle Larson (-32) remain in the mix for the coveted Regular Season Championship but all three had respective issues in Michigan. Larson took the biggest hit out of the bunch after starting a multicar wreck in Stage 2.

Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell and William Byron have all won multiple races this season, and while a regular-season title isn’t within grasp for the trio, they can still continue to rack up playoff points to position themselves well for the start of the postseason.

Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suárez and Austin Cindric each own a win and have locked in spots in the postseason. Both Suárez and Cindric return to the playoffs after missing out in 2023.

LAST 4 IN

With 16 unique winners not possible this year, Martin Truex Jr.’s 2022 nightmare will not repeat itself this season. However, a 77-point cushion is anything but safe, especially with Truex’s luck at superspeedways in his Cup career. He’s completed every lap at drafting tracks this season but only has six top 10s in 38 starts at the “World Center of Racing.”

Ty Gibbs had one of his most complete outings of 2024 at Michigan. A third-place finish moved him 39 points above the elimination line but experience is limited at Daytona for the Cup sophomore and he will need to rely on his Joe Gibbs Racing team to help get to the checkered flag with a clean race car.

Daytona may be best suited for the likes of Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace. Both have produced results and won at drafting tracks in their Cup career, with Buescher being the defending Daytona summer race winner. Buescher was involved in the late Stage 2 crash with Larson and Wallace but the damage to the No. 17 RFK Racing Ford didn’t stop Buescher from finishing inside the top 10.

However, the damage to Wallace’s No. 23 Toyota kept him from finding speed the rest of the day at Michigan, and all he could was watch his teammate take the checkered flag while Gibbs finished not too far behind. Now, just one point below Ross Chastain for the final playoff spot, Wallace will have to manage, balance stage points and go for the win Saturday night.

FIRST 4 OUT

It appeared Chastain was on his way to a solid top-10 outing at Michigan until a spin in overtime parachuted him to a 25th-place finish. Now, Chastain only holds a single-point gap over Wallace entering Saturday night’s showdown. The driver of the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet has been in the mix late in Daytona races but he’s been on the short end of calamity more times than not with a 42% DNF rate at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.

Kyle Busch has had fast Chevrolets at Daytona since joining Richard Childress Racing in 2023. He nearly won his first Daytona 500 in Feb. 2023 and had a rocket in the season-opening race this year but couldn’t get to the front late and finished 12th. Busch and teammate Austin Dillon will have speed Saturday night, if they can put a complete race together, one of them could find their way into the postseason.

WHO CAN SHAKE UP PLAYOFF PICTURE AT DAYTONA?

Anybody.

That’s the beauty of the Daytona summer race taking place just before the postseason kicks off. If you are looking for specific drivers outside the playoff picture that have momentum heading into Saturday night, look no further than a pair of Spire Motorsports drivers Zane Smith and Carson Hocevar. Smith’s summer has been bountiful in the No. 71 Chevrolet, with two top 10s highlighted by a runner-up at Nashville. Hocevar enters Saturday night’s affair with back-to-back top 10s at Richmond and Michigan.

MORE: 2024 Cup Series schedule | How to get notified for 2025 schedule release

Before each race weekend, check back into The Field of 16 to see the latest projections of the 2024 Cup Series playoff field.

Posted on August 22, 2024August 22, 2024 by Staff Report

The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team and driver Denny Hamlin were issued an L2-level penalty for violating NASCAR’s engine inspection requirements, the sanctioning body announced Thursday.

The team was found in violation of Sections 14.7.1.E&F and 14.7.1.1.B&E of the NASCAR Rule Book. As a result, Hamlin and team owner Joe Gibbs were each docked 75 points and 10 playoff points, while crew chief Chris Gabehart was fined $100,000.

Section 14.7.1.E states all race-winning engines “will be long block sealed by NASCAR and must be completely inspected by NASCAR before the engine may be disassembled by the team. If the team chooses to use the long block sealed race winning engine again before being inspected, the engine must be used in the same vehicle number the next time it is used.” Section 14.7.1.F states the long block engine assembly seals of a long block sealed engine must not be altered, removed or replaced.

Additionally, the team violated 14.7.1.1.B&E, which respectively states, “seals must not be removed without prior approval by NASCAR,” and “if a race winning engine is sealed and presented for post-race inspection at a later date with damaged, altered or missing seals, an L2 Penalty will be assessed.”

“Each race-winning engine must be inspected by NASCAR once the race team determines that its life cycle is complete,” a NASCAR statement read. “In this instance, prior to presenting the engine to NASCAR for inspection, Toyota Racing Development disassembled and rebuilt the No. 11’s Bristol-winning race engine. Per the NASCAR Rule Book, this violation results in an L2 penalty to the race team and driver. Toyota Racing Development self-reported this violation.”

RELATED: Driver standings | Cup schedule

The penalties levied against Hamlin and the No. 11 team are the lowest L2-level penalties permissible, according to the rule book.

Additionally, Hamlin’s Bristol win will no longer count toward eligibility for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, advancement in the playoffs or eligibility for non-points events and tiebreakers. Hamlin is a three-time race winner in 2024, including his Bristol triumph and is still locked into the postseason.

The penalty drops Hamlin from third in the regular-season standings to sixth, effectively eliminating him from contention to win the Regular Season Championship.

“As the engine builder for our partner NASCAR Cup Series teams, TRD (Toyota Racing Development) is solely responsible for the handling and disposition of all our engines pre- and post-race,” David Wilson, president of TRD USA, said in a statement. “Despite procedures being in place, Denny’s race-winning engine from Bristol was mistakenly returned to our Costa Mesa facility, disassembled and rebuilt instead of being torn down and inspected by NASCAR per the rule book. Although we know with absolute certainty that the engine was legal and would have passed inspection, we left NASCAR in an impossible position because they were not given the opportunity to properly inspect our engine. We have reviewed our processes and have implemented several additional steps to ensure that this never happens again. TRD takes full responsibility for this grievous mistake, and we apologize to Denny, Chris, Coach Gibbs, the entire JGR organization, NASCAR and our fans.”

Hamlin still has the opportunity to gain playoff points, of course, in the final two regular-season races at Daytona International Speedway and Darlington Raceway.

A 54-time winner at the Cup level, Hamlin is a three-time champion of the Daytona 500, and the series will race at Daytona in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, Peacock). He also is a four-time winner at Darlington, where the Cup Series’ regular season will come to an end Sept. 1.

Posted on August 22, 2024 by Neil Paine

As the fight for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs reaches its frenzied conclusion, two races remain for at least five drivers to fight over no more than four postseason spots. So if you haven’t locked in your playoff status yet, things are starting to feel mighty precarious right now.

That is especially the case considering the first of those two races, Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCA Radio, NBC Sports App), comes at Daytona International Speedway.

Daytona is a fascinating subject because it’s the sport’s flagship track — home of the most famous race in America, the Daytona 500 — but it also carries a reputation for being one of the most chaotic. That duality was represented in the career of the late, great Dale Earnhardt, who hated the type of pack racing that emerged at Daytona in the restrictor-plate era, even as he became the greatest plate-racer in history. (So remarkable was Earnhardt’s ability to manipulate the draft that legend held he could “see the air” as he maneuvered through the field.)

Pack racing means one mistake or miscommunication, by any of dozens of different cars, can create the “Big One” at any moment. So, it’s natural that drivers would be anxious to cast their fate to the Daytona winds with the playoffs on the line. And the numbers support that feeling.

There are a few ways to measure just how random Daytona races can be. Back when William Byron won the 500 in February, I wrote about how surprisingly rare it was for the best driver in the Cup Series to win the Super Bowl of Stock Car Racing — with Daytona winners performing worse on average in the previous season (according to my Adjusted Points+ index metric) than the winners at any other track since the early 1970s. But let’s expand on that further by retroactively calculating my rolling driver rankings going into each race, tracking how well the top driver did — as well as where the eventual winner was ranked going into the race.

In the average Cup Series race (at all tracks) since 1975, the No. 1 driver in the pre-race rankings wins 15.7% of the time, with an average finish of 10.8; meanwhile, the eventual winner of any given race had an average ranking of 6.6 going in. And those numbers get more predictable at short tracks, for instance, where the No. 1 driver wins 21.1% of the time with an average finish of 9.1, while the average winner had a pre-race ranking of 5.5.

However, we see how much more chaotic things can be at restrictor-plate tracks like Daytona and Talladega. Across all plate tracks, the No. 1 driver wins just 8.9% of races with an average finish of 15.8, while the average winner went into the race with a ranking of 9.0. And Daytona is even more unpredictable. While the No. 1 driver has historically won 9.1% of the time — about on par with Talladega — they’ve also posted an average finish of 15.9, with the winner going into the race with an average rank of 9.8. Both of those latter figures are the highest for any track on the current Cup Series schedule with at least 10 races run since 1975.

And the midseason Daytona race, which has been run at night under the lights since 1998, is the most helter-skelter of all. It sees the No. 1 ranked driver win just 8.2% of the time with an average finish of 17.1, and the average winner has gone in with a ranking of 9.8. For every time this race was won by the top driver, as happened with Earnhardt (in 1990 and 1993), Jeff Gordon (1998) and Jimmie Johnson (2013), it was just as often won by comparatively less-heralded drivers like Greg Sacks (No. 28 in 1985), John Andretti (No. 31 in 1997), Greg Biffle (No. 29 in 2003), David Ragan (No. 25 in 2011) and Justin Haley (No. 32 in 2019).

And all of this is from the perspective of the top driver before the race. How about the best driver in the race itself?

You might think the best driver and the race winner are one and the same — and for sure, there’s a certain school of thought that “if you ain’t first, you’re last.” But since we’re on the topic of randomness, it’s worth looking at how often the statistical best driver of the race, as measured by Driver Rating, actually wins at Daytona (and other tracks), and how often their day is spoiled by unforeseen circumstances.

Since 2005, the earliest season of loop data at Racing-Reference.info, the driver with the highest rating in the race wins at a surprisingly low clip of 56.2% overall, which underscores just how much stands between the car with the best pure speed and Victory Lane each week, regardless of the track. But that number falls to 43.6% at Daytona — the third-lowest success rate at any current track with at least 10 races in that span, trailing only Talladega (41.0%) and Indianapolis (41.2%).

Moreover, the driver with the best driver rating in Daytona races has an average finish of just 5.8, which is far worse than the overall Cup Series average of 3.0 since 2005, and easily the worst of any active qualified track:

This, perhaps more than anything else, speaks to the chaos sitting at the heart of Daytona. Because the Big One’s potential lurks around every turn, drivers can do everything right and still get sent to the back of the field by the end of the race, if they get caught up in a massive wreck. The top stars in the sport are far from immune to this — remember how mediocre the No. 1 ranked pre-race driver tends to do here — which in turn opens up chances for cars deeper in the field to rise to the front.

If you are one of the drivers on the cusp of the playoffs, you could look at this as something to fear: Everything you prepared for all season could be cruelly swept away at any moment. But it also represents an opportunity. Since a win can officially stamp your ticket to the postseason — and any high finish can help solidify your points position — Daytona could also be what makes a driver’s playoff hopes instead of breaking them. After all, somebody has to win, no matter how much chaos it takes to get there in the end.

Posted on August 22, 2024September 10, 2024 by Holly Cain

With five races left to set the 12-driver NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoff field, Friday night’s Wawa 250 Powered by Coca-Cola at Daytona International Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET on USA Network, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) could produce a surprise winner and new playoff entrant on the historic high banks.

There are only three former Daytona race winners in this weekend’s field, led by three-time winner Austin Hill of Richard Childress Racing. Also with Daytona wins are Jeremy Clements Racing owner-driver Jeremy Clements and JR Motorsports’ Justin Allgaier — who is the defending winner of this Daytona summer 250-miler.

While those closer to the top of the standings have either solidified their positions with victories or good points days, drivers near the elimination line arrive in Daytona racing for their playoff lives.

Big Machine Racing’s Parker Kligerman is ranked 11th with a 16-point margin to the playoff good after being levied with a penalty post-Michigan. JR Motorsports’ Sammy Smith holds only a single-point lead on RSS Racing’s Ryan Sieg for that last playoff position.

Eight drivers have already earned playoff bids with victories, led by popular New Zealand driver Shane van Gisbergen, who has three race wins in his first full-time NASCAR season. Allgaier, Hill, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Chandler Smith and Allgaier’s teammate at JR Motorsports, Sam Mayer all have won twice.

Defending series champion Cole Custer, his Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Riley Herbst and RCR’s Jesse Love all have earned playoff berths with a win. Veteran Kaulig Racing driver AJ Allmendinger currently holds a 102-point advantage on the elimination line while JGR’s Sheldon Creed is a healthy 70 points up. Kligerman and Sammy Smith round out the current dozen in the playoff standings.

Hill won the season’s first two races and now aims for a rare Daytona double. A win Friday would give him the track season sweep, meaning he would join NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt Jr. as the only competitors to sweep a season’s two NASCAR Xfinity Series events at Daytona.

Creed, who just set a record for most runner-up finishes (11) in the series without a win, has finished runner-up in the last two Daytona races.

Asked what it would take to hoist that elusive first trophy this weekend, Creed said, “A good push and even better luck. It’s been feast or famine at Daytona for me so far and that’s helped me realize the importance of making it to the end. If things go our way, I feel good about our ability to put ourselves in contention. From there we just have to hope that the cards fall in a way that give me a chance to execute in the final laps. If that happens, I like our chances.”

Allmendinger’s average finish of 10.7 in seven starts is the second-best average finish to Jordan Anderson Racing’s Parker Retzlaff (4.7 in three starts) among active drivers.

There’s no practice this week. Qualifying is set for Friday at 3 p.m. ET (USA Network).

Posted on August 22, 2024 by Alex Cadavid

The stats show that Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway (7:30 ET, NBC, Peacock, MRN Radio, SiriusXM, NBC Sports App) is set to be a wide-open thriller.

Who knows what we’re in store for at the “World Center of Racing,” a driver’s luck could change at any time. In Daytona’s last seven races, the driver who won led for 10 laps or fewer in six of those events. On the flip side, the driver who led the most laps often fell short, finishing 22nd or worse in five of the past six races. Proving Daytona’s wild nature is a recipe for thrilling upsets and unexpected twists.

Additionally, in four of the last six summer Daytona races, the winner earned their first victory of the season, which is crucial given that Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace are only separated by 16 points in the playoff standings. Not to mention former Daytona winners such as Kyle Busch, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones and Justin Haley are in must-win scenarios for their playoff hopes.

While there’s still plenty to watch on the playoff bubble, the race for the Regular Season Championship is also leaving the top drivers with no margin for error as Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson are separated by 32 points — second-closest battle ever at this point in a season. Currently, the early projections only have Elliott and Reddick landing top fives, while Hamlin rounds out the top 10 and Larson is a projected 14th.

The advanced metrics favor Ryan Blaney to win at Daytona. Given he has an 11.3 average finish on drafting tracks in the Next Gen era — best of all drivers — it’s easy to understand why Racing Insights is high on the No. 12 driver heading into the weekend. Blaney is tied with William Byron, Wallace and Elliott for the third-best betting odds to win. He has four wins in drafting-style races and finished in the top two in 33% of the last 24 races on drafting tracks. Still, at Daytona, it’s anyone’s game.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

TYLER REDDICK: Reddick took over the regular-season points lead after his Michigan win. When factoring in his Duel win before the season at Daytona and his triumph at Talladega, Reddick could extend his points lead and remain in control going to Darlington.

WILLIAM BYRON: Byron has four drafting track wins, with two of those coming at Daytona and three being in the Next Gen car. In his last seven drafting races, he’s tallied six top 10s and has an average finish of 6.14 — both a series-best over that stretch.

KYLE BUSCH: Busch rallied to a top-five finish at Michigan, and while it’s been hard for the No. 8 crew to string together solid weeks this year, Busch has the experience to navigate a wild superspeedway race.

TODD GILLILAND: Seventy-four of Gilliland’s 121 laps led this year have been on superspeedways. With the career year he’s having and the speed Front Row Motorsports has shown on superspeedways, Gilliland could shock the field.

JOHN HUNTER NEMECHEK: Nemechek holds a 9.67 average finish at Daytona — 10th-best all-time. He also has finished 11th or better in five of his last seven drafting track starts.

MORE: How to get notified for 2025 schedule release

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE COKE ZERO SUGAR 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.

Finish	Car Number	Driver
1	12	Ryan Blaney
2	9	Chase Elliott
3	20	Christopher Bell
4	45	Tyler Reddick
5	17	Chris Buescher
6	24	William Byron
7	6	Brad Keselowski
8	23	Bubba Wallace
9	22	Joey Logano
10	11	Denny Hamlin
11	99	Daniel Suárez
12	2	Austin Cindric
13	48	Alex Bowman
14	5	Kyle Larson
15	19	Martin Truex Jr.
16	8	Kyle Busch
17	1	Ross Chastain
18	7	Corey LaJoie
19	4	Josh Berry
20	54	Ty Gibbs
21	34	Michael McDowell
22	10	Noah Gragson
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
24	14	Chase Briscoe
25	43	Erik Jones
26	71	Zane Smith
27	38	Todd Gilliland
28	51	Justin Haley
29	31	Daniel Hemric
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek
31	77	Carson Hocevar
32	3	Austin Dillon
33	41	Ryan Preece
34	15	Cody Ware
35	21	Harrison Burton
36	33	Austin Hill
37	16	Shane van Gisbergen
38	78	BJ McLeod
39	62	Parker Retzlaff
40	44	Joey Gase

Posted on August 22, 2024 by Official NASCAR Release

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (Aug. 22, 2024) — Today marks a moment worth savoring, as America’s No. 1 motorsport and the nation’s No. 1 meat snack brand join forces to help race fans feed their wild side. NASCAR and Jack Link’s together announced that the U.S. meat snacks market leader has become an Official Partner of NASCAR through a multi-year agreement set to begin in 2025.

“Much like NASCAR, Jack Link’s built itself from a determined pioneer into a household brand committed to delivering quality to its customers while having some fun along the way,” said Michelle Byron, NASCAR executive vice president and chief partnership and licensing officer. “Jack Link’s fits perfectly as an Official Partner of NASCAR and we’re eager for everyone involved to enjoy the benefits of catering to the most passionate and loyal fans in all of sports.”

As the Official Meat Snack of NASCAR, Jack Link’s will activate across multiple areas of the NASCAR ecosystem including at-track, social and digital media, and radio and television. Jack Link’s will also leverage the NASCAR relationship at retail, as the company continues offering consumers a wide amount of real, high-quality protein snack options that span multiple flavors, formats, sizes and sub-brands.

“Jack Link’s is thrilled to partner with NASCAR, a true icon in American motorsport, and share our passion for quality snacks with their loyal fan base,” said Matt White, senior vice president of sales & commercial strategy at Jack Link’s. “This partnership allows us to bring our delicious meat snacks to life at the racetrack and in retail locations nationwide, fueling fans’ adventures with bold new flavors. We’re excited to satisfy cravings and enhance the fan experience both on and off the track.”

Before this delicious new partnership takes effect, the 2024 NASCAR season rolls on, with the penultimate race of the NASCAR Cup Series regular season taking place from the iconic Daytona International Speedway at 7:30 p.m. ET this Saturday, Aug. 24 (NBC, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Two weeks later, the 10-race NASCAR Playoffs get underway at Atlanta Motor Speedway at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 8 (USA Network, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Posted on August 21, 2024August 23, 2024 by Staff Report

NASCAR will mandate a new right side rear-window air deflector beginning with Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, NBC Sports App, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Following wind-tunnel testing this week, the added component to the Next Gen car increases the liftoff speed of the car in the early part of the spin, making it less likely get airborne.

The mandate comes in response to Corey LaJoie’s flip at Michigan International Speedway after the No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet went in the air and landed on its roof shortly after spinning down the backstretch.

NASCAR will supply teams with the part, and it will match what is currently run on the left side rear window.

MORE: Daytona schedule

Posted on August 21, 2024 by John Crane

Here’s what’s happening in the world of NASCAR with Michigan in the rearview and Daytona (Sat., 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC) up next.

THE LINEUP ️

1️⃣ What will Daytona have in store as the next-to-last regular-season bout?

2️⃣ Which winless driver has the best chance to hoist the Daytona crown?

3️⃣ Inside the Race: Reddick’s winning moves

4️⃣ Just how good has Tyler Reddick’s points stretch been?

5️⃣ Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage

James Gilbert | Getty Images

1. What will Daytona have in store as the next-to-last regular-season bout?

With the regular season nearing its end, Daytona will act as the penultimate race before the 2024 NASCAR Playoffs begin.

A wild, weather-filled race weekend at Michigan International Speedway saw Tyler Reddick conquer his Irish Hills demons and jump 10 points clear of Chase Elliott in the points standings. Then, there was the playoff bubble, which saw several drivers tally double-digit totals that could be all the difference in clinching a coveted playoff berth.

Next up is Daytona. And when speaking about Daytona, it’s best to be frank: Reputations speak for themselves sometimes, and the “World Center of Racing” is no exception. But in the case of 2024, Daytona will not act as the regular-season finale. Instead, the 2.5-miler will be the next-to-last venue on the docket.

While momentum can certainly translate, it takes a certain kind of momentum to translate in full to Daytona, even if it is no longer the regular-season cutoff contest. From blistering speeds through the straightaways to the oh-so-daunting banking through the turns, racing skill can perhaps only take you so far.

“You can’t make all your own luck there,” 2023 Daytona summer winner Chris Buescher said at Michigan when speaking about the Florida track. “There is a matter of being in the right place at the right time simply by circumstance. Mistakes get made. Everyone is a little bit more desperate as it comes down to it. That race definitely has the ability to get a lot more wild, especially as we get into the closing laps. We’ve had these conversations there through the years of how do you run hard, be smart in the stages, try and capture stage points, but ultimately know that with 10, 15 to go, it’s going to get wild.”

But Daytona’s sheer unpredictability might have a benefit for drivers with sound superspeedway packages, because they’ll have the opportunity to leave a potential race-winning mark.

“Yeah, I mean, it’s definitely more in your hands at Darlington, but Darlington was one of our really bad struggle races earlier this year where, you know, Daytona is kind of that crapshoot race,” Kyle Busch said earlier this season at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. “But we seem to be really fast at the two-and-a-half miles, two-mile tracks, and so you kind of honestly might have a better shot of winning at Daytona than you would at Darlington.”

Daytona hasn’t seen a back-to-back summer winner since 2005-06, when Tony Stewart accomplished the feat. And for drivers looking to go into the postseason on solid footing or perhaps even clinch their playoff berth outright, anything goes at Daytona, regular-season finale or not. If anything, just expect to be surprised.

Talk about a reputation.

2. Which winless driver has the best chance to hoist the Daytona crown?

Although the sport has already seen 13 different winners this season, Daytona’s summer race could produce another.

Make no mistake, the Kyle Larsons, Christopher Bells, Denny Hamlins or William Byrons of the world — among other drivers to already find Victory Lane this season — have just as good a shot as any to prevail at Daytona this weekend. But for the pilots yet to win this season — and thus still at the mercy of missing the playoffs — the incentive to race well is all the more apparent.

Of the four drivers currently without a win in 2024 but above the elimination line — Martin Truex Jr. (+77), Ty Gibbs (+39), Buescher (+16) and Ross Chastain (+1) — Buescher is the easy layup. He won last season’s summer race, and while a driver hasn’t gone back-to-back in the Daytona summer race in nearly 20 years, the benefit of the doubt should at least be considered. Truex, meanwhile, maintains a hearty points lead, and his experience at Daytona overall is nearly unmatched — the 44-year-old’s 38 total races at the Daytona track are tied with Kyle Busch for the most among all active drivers. Chastain has only garnered three top 10s in 12 total tries at the track, and none of those top-10 results came during the summer race.

MORE: Updated driver standings following Michigan and before Daytona

There are, of course, other candidates to consider. There is Busch (-93), who utilized a two-tire gamble at Michigan to tally his first top five since Dover Motor Speedway in April. The Michigan finish additionally bumped the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet up a spot in the playoff standings, and his +26 gain was the highest among all bubble drivers. Bubba Wallace (-1), who fell below the elimination line after a 26th-place finish at Michigan, has a knack for producing at superspeedways, as his five top fives at Daytona — including a runner-up during the 2021 summer running — can attest.

The likes of Michael McDowell (-157), Erik Jones (-245) and Justin Haley (-260) have all won at the facility, with the latter two winning summer races there (2018 and 2019, respectively). And while Chase Briscoe (-115), Todd Gilliland (-151), Carson Hocevar (-165) and Josh Berry (-179), among others, don’t have prior winning history at the track in Cup, it only takes being at the right place at the right time to be in a winning position at Daytona.

In other words, there are an abundance of options, and every option is more than capable.

Chris Buescher, in the No. 17 RFK Racing Ford, does a celebratory burnout following his 2023 summer victory at Daytona International Speedway. — *James Gilbert | Getty Images*

3. Inside the Race: Breaking down Reddick’s winning moves

MRN’s Todd Gordon and FOX’s Larry McReynolds dive into the data from Michigan and discuss how Tyler Reddick came out on top.

4. Just how good has Tyler Reddick’s points stretch been?

A victory at Michigan last weekend officially placed the No. 45 23XI pilot atop the regular-season standings. Check out Reddick’s point gains over the last eight contests, dating back to Iowa Speedway in June.

RACE	POINTS BEHIND	POINTS POSITION	FINISH AT TRACK
After Iowa	-64	6th	22nd
After New Hampshire	-60	5th	6th
After Nashville	-53	4th	3rd
After Chicago	-23	3rd	2nd
After Pocono	-15	3rd	6th
After Indianapolis	-15	3rd	2nd
After Richmond	-5	2nd	3rd
After Michigan	+10	1st	1st

5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage

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Fireworks go off at Daytona International Speedway. — *James Gilbert | Getty Images*

Posted on August 21, 2024August 21, 2024 by Staff Report

The National Motorsports Appeals Panel upheld the penalty levied against the No. 3 Richard Childress Racing team after a last-lap incident Aug. 11 at Richmond Raceway. However, the panel did reduce the suspension for No. 3 team spotter Brandon Benesch from three races to one.

Austin Dillon made contact with Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin in the final turns en route to his win at the Virginia short track. The panel agreed with NASCAR’s ruling that the totality of Dillon’s actions were significant enough to warrant penalties; the win stands, but the benefits from the win — namely eligibility for the Cup Series Playoffs — were revoked.

RELATED: Cup Series standings

The penalty concerns Sections 4.4.B NASCAR Member Code of Conduct Penalty Options and Guidelines; 10.1.A General Procedure; 12.3.2.1.B Eligibility. Benesch was cited for violating 4.4.D and 10.1.A.

Dillon and the No. 3 team were also docked 25 points in the drivers’ and owners’ standings in the penalty handed down Aug. 14.

The appeals panel, consisting of Tom DeLoach, Kelly Housby and Tommy Wheeler, reached the decision with the following explanation: “NASCAR represents elite motorsports and, as such, its drivers are expected to demonstrate exemplary conduct if its series’ championships are to be validated. In this case, the ‘line’ was crossed.”

Richard Childress Racing released the following statement: “Richard Childress Racing is disappointed in the results of today’s hearing in front of the National Motorsports Appeals Panel. We respect the NASCAR appeals process, but we do not believe that today’s outcome reflects the facts presented. We plan to appeal the decision to the Final Appeal Officer.”

Posted on August 21, 2024 by Cara Cooper

Tanner Tallarico is a self-described “iRacing nerd.”

When he isn’t racing at Michigan’s Berlin Raceway, he’s racing against his Berlin competitors on iRacing.

Every winter he and other Berlin drivers have the same conversation – why isn’t the famed NASCAR Advance Auto Parts Weekly Racing Series short track on the simulator?

“It’s such a unique track,” Tallarico said. “It’s got great publicity. There’s a lot of big names that have come out of that place. They host really big events… And we’ve always just thought that they were more than deserving of at least having a shot of getting put onto iRacing.”

Last offseason, Berlin drivers knew Tallarico was the guy to go to to make getting their track on the system happen. He started a petition on iRacing’s website and is looking to complete the 1,000 signatures needed to get the attention of the company. When Tallarico spoke with NASCAR.com, he said they had about 800 signatures.

“It’s just to kind of give myself and a couple of guys that are helping me try to get this deal done a little bit of firepower to put in front of the iRacing staff,” Tallarico said.
“Just to say, hey, we’re pulling from a really small pool of people and if we can have this big of an impact and all this feedback and stuff, with just a thousand signatures, imagine what we could do with this huge platform that iRacing has that’s worldwide now, and what that would do to Berlin. If it wasn’t on the map before, that would definitely put it on the map if we could get it on the sim, for sure.”

Berlin has meant a lot to Tallarico’s racing career, especially this year. In April, at the start of his third season there, he picked up his first NASCAR win at the track on opening night.

Tanner Tallarico (1) races a fellow Sportsman competitor during a recent event at Michigan’s Berlin Raceway. (Photo: Courtesy of Tanner Tallarico)

Since then, he has five top fives and 11 top 10s in 15 races, and is currently eighth in the track’s Sportsman division standings.

“That set the season off really good to win on opening night,” he said. “Berlin is really, really tough… The saying is, it takes three years to win at Berlin, and it’s kind of ironic that three years almost to the day we won our first feature up there. It started off the season really good. I went through a lot of ups and downs to kind of get to that first win, but really since then, knock on wood, the season’s been going really strong for us.”

Racing has taken Tallarico all over the Midwest since he began competing in quarter-midgets at 6 years old in 2004. After two championships, he and his family team built a street stock they raced around Michigan and Indiana.

Tallarico made one start in the ARCA Menards Series, but he faced a lack of funding and decided to he look at options closer to home where he could go race against the best competition. That brought him to Berlin, which is two hours from his house.

“It, at the time, was the only NASCAR-sanctioned track even close to where I’m living,” he said. “I knew the exposure level up there would be huge, and we just went up there in the sportsman class and started running, and we’ve been having a blast ever since.”

Tallarico said he and the team kept racing at Berlin because, “It’s a premier short track facility.”

“I’ve been fortunate enough to race at a lot of different short tracks all around my area … they really do a really good job with the way they run the facility,” he said. “The staff there are phenomenal. The race control are phenomenal. And then really for me as a driver, the biggest thing for me is the competition level in my class, specifically in the Sportsman division, is incredible.

“There’s a handful of guys up there that have been up there for a really, really long time, and were kind of the ones to beat week-in and out, and I’m finally starting to get into that point where I feel like I can compete with those guys week-in and out.”

When Tallarico isn’t racing at Berlin, he’s up in the press box as a commentator for FloRacing’s broadcast. Two years ago he was invited by Berlin’s play-by-play announcer to join the booth and give a driver’s perspective. He fell in love with announcing so much he jokes he almost has more fun in the booth than in the car.

A general track scene during the Tekton Battle at Berlin 250 at Berlin Raceway in Marne, Michigan on August 7, 2024. (Photo: Julia Schachinger/NASCAR)

“It’s a lot less pressure and it’s a lot different kind of point of view and perspective,” he said. “I race like 12-15 times a season and I’m probably up there 10-12 times a season hanging out with those guys, so that’s really fun as well… They mentioned it’s nice to have kind of a driver input and it just kind of changes the dynamic at home for people watching. We can kind of hit on things that the cars might be doing, what the drivers might be feeling or how they’re going to adjust to the track and the weather, whatever’s going on. If there’s a situation I can kind of inject the driver’s point of view into it and just kind of make the broadcast a little more interesting to the people watching at home.

“So I enjoy doing it. It’s fun. Sometimes I have more fun doing that than I do actually driving. It just kind of depends on the day, but it’s really fun to do. I’m glad that those guys let me go up there and do that with them.”

Tallarico will get back in the race car at Berlin for championship night on September 7. He’s hopeful to have the 1,000 signatures needed for iRacing by then and maybe work can be done this offseason.

If so, the “iRacing nerd” can use his hobby to get better on his new home track, and show the rest of the racing world what they’re missing.

“I’ve not really raced at many tracks on iRacing at all that I’ve actually had the opportunity to go and race them in real life,” he said. “I think it would be a great tuning tool, definitely for myself, but the other drivers as well.

“So yes, it would help me immensely to have the sim at my house where I can just get on there and run a couple hundred laps every single night, because I would. I’m that nerd. But at the same time it would be cool to just give that opportunity to the people that are at home and let them get on there and kind of play around with it and see how cool Berlin actually is.”