It’s no surprise to see Joe Gibbs Racing be lights out in qualifying. Denny Hamlin won his second pole of the season at Nashville Superspeedway — and it wasn’t even close. The No. 11 Toyota was nearly a tenth of a second faster than second-best Christopher Bell. With the new qualifying procedure by groups, Bell will line up third. Josh Berry was the fastest of the Group A cars in the final round of qualifying, tying his best career starting position of second.

RELATED: Set your Fantasy Live lineups 

Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:

Starter 1: Brad Keselowski
Starter 2: Tyler Reddick
Starter 3: Ty Gibbs
Starter 4: Chase Elliott
Starter 5: Josh Berry
Garage pick: Ross Chastain

NEXT IN LINE: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron

RISING: With three straight finishes of 24th or worse, Hamlin has fallen to third in the Regular Season Championship standings, 40 points behind the Hendrick Motorsports teammates of Elliott and Larson. The No. 11 car was in another zip code in qualifying and Hamlin believes his car is better at Nashville than it was last year, when he led 81 laps and finished third. Looking ahead, though, Hamlin has some of his best race tracks on the circuit coming later in the regular season at Pocono, Richmond and Darlington, so I’ve got to save him here. If you have at least four starts remaining for him, I’d advise you to start him this weekend. I’m right below that threshold at three starts left.

It took nearly a third of the way into Berry’s rookie season, but it’s no longer unexpected to see the No. 4 car run toward the front of the field. Since finishing third at Darlington Raceway in mid-May, Berry has four top-10 finishes across the last six Cup events. Rodney Childers is the mastermind atop the pit box, and the veteran crew chief had a car capable of winning last year’s Nashville race with Kevin Harvick, but a tire puncture foiled the No. 4 team’s bid late in the race. Berry tied his best qualifying effort of second.

Josh Berry's No. 4 Ford speeds down the frontstretch at Nashville Superspeedway
Brittney Wilbur | NASCAR Digital Media

FALLING: When NASCAR visits Nashville, the stakes become higher for Trackhouse Racing. Team owner Justin Marks is based out of Nashville and once aspired of building the team from “Music City.” Last year, Chastain had a dream weekend, scoring the team’s first career pole and dominating the race on the way to victory. Chastain should still be considered for lineups because he has yet to finish outside the top five in three starts and was second on 10-lap averages in practice. However, Daniel Suárez’s trying season continues. The No. 99 car was ranked 33rd in practice and only improved two spots for qualifying.

When Joey Logano was involved in an accident early during the final stage of last week’s race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, he missed out on a prime opportunity to have a monster points day while racing on the playoff bubble. Fast forward nearly a week and the No. 22 team is trending down entering Sunday’s race, as he will take the green flag from 26th position. Penske’s downfall this season has been intermediate venues, which Nashville certainly falls under. Logano, who has a pair of top 10s in the three Nashville races, has dropped from my lineup.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Christopher Bell vs. William Byron: The battle of two heavyweights is one where realistically either driver could win the race. Similarly to my situation with Hamlin, a lack of uses is why neither Bell nor Byron is in my lineup this weekend. I’m at an even bigger deficit with Bell, only having two starts left over the final eight races. Comparing these two, though, I’m leaning toward the No. 20 car. Bell has been on a tear with two wins and no finish worse than ninth in the last five races.

Ross Chastain vs. Martin Truex Jr.: It feels like Chastain and Truex are having similar seasons, in that both should be running better. Truex has had issues finishing races where he’s ran, while Chastain always maximizes the No. 1 car’s performance. Chastain is where I’m leaning.

Denny Hamlin vs. Chase Elliott: This is going to be one of those rare times that despite a driver being in my lineup, I’m going in the opposite direction for the matchup. In every metric, Hamlin seemed to have one of the best cars on Saturday at Nashville. Elliott is a contender, but not sure that he’s a match for the No. 11 car.

Chris Buescher vs. Tyler Reddick: Shame on me for not having any RFK Racing drivers in my lineup earlier this week. Keselowski and Buescher have been the best of the Ford bunch on intermediate tracks this season, and that continued Saturday at Nashville. Despite that, Reddick also appeared to have one of the best cars in the field, so I’m staying chalk with the No. 45 car.

Bubba Wallace is keeping his mind on racing and ignoring any outside distractions.

According to a midweek report by The Athletic, Wallace and Aric Almirola had a physical altercation during a competition meeting among Toyota drivers ahead of last month’s race at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Wallace races full-time in the NASCAR Cup Series for 23XI Racing, while Almirola competes on a part-time basis for Joe Gibbs Racing’s Xfinity Series program.

The report stated Almirola was viewed as instigator of the dispute, and the 40-year-old has not competed since the incident took place as the result of a team suspension. Almirola is set to return to the team’s No. 20 entry in the July 20 race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Joe Gibbs Racing did not return a request for comment on the situation. A Toyota Racing spokesperson also declined comment.

MORE: Cup standings | Nashville starting lineup

Wallace spoke briefly about the ordeal Saturday at Nashville Superspeedway but ultimately did not disclose what took place.

“They don’t want me to get into details to keep some people’s images good,” Wallace said. “I think I said enough at Charlotte last year, so all in all, life is good for me. That (expletive) happened over a month ago, and a lot of good’s come my way. And that’s what I’m focused on. I’m focused on getting our stuff turned back around. And you know, off the race track, I’m focused on my wife and baby boy that’s growing and growing. And so that’s all you can really ask for. So things are good for me off track. Not so much on track. That’s what we’re focused on right now.”

Denny Hamlin, team co-owner of 23XI Racing and full-time racer for JGR, also addressed the circumstances Saturday.

“I don’t really have a comment on it because I wasn’t there at the time,” said Hamlin, who qualified on pole for Sunday’s race at Nashville. “So I don’t know what all transpired. It’s all hearsay from my standpoint. And at 23XI, we let Joe Gibbs Racing handle it and they did what they saw fit. Again, I don’t know all the details because I didn’t want to get too much into the personal business, and I still don’t.”

As Wallace referenced, he and Almirola got into a separate altercation at Charlotte during the 2023 Coca-Cola 600. After exiting their cars during a rain delay, Almirola confronted Wallace, and the duo exchanged words, eventually escalating as Almirola shoved Wallace on the pit road. The race resumed without further issue between the two, but Almirola said he took issue with Wallace racing him “dirty.”

RELATED: Wallace, Almirola on 2023 scuffle

Wallace made his NASCAR Cup Series debut in 2017 by filling in for Almirola in the No. 43 Ford for Richard Petty Motorsports at Pocono Raceway while Almirola was sidelined with a back injury.

Almirola stepped away from full-time Cup racing at the end of the 2023 season after 12 full seasons, his career at the top level dating back to 2007. After spending his final six seasons in Cup with Stewart-Haas Racing driving its No. 10 Ford, Almirola reunited with JGR this season for a part-time Xfinity campaign, resulting in an April win at Martinsville Speedway. Before leaping to Cup, Almirola began his Xfinity career with Gibbs in 2006.

Contributing: Cameron Richardson

Ally 400

(⏰ Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET | NBC | NBC Sports App | PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

Weekend schedule | TV schedule | Weather tracker | NASCAR 101

Location: Lebanon, Tenn.
Track length: 1.33 mile
Race purse: $8,915,372
Race distance: 300 laps | 399 miles
Stages: 90 | 185 | 300

Starting lineup: Denny Hamlin to lead field to green Sunday
Pit stall assignments:
See where drivers will pit
Defending winner:
Ross Chastain, June 2023 | NASCAR’s history in Nashville

Key things to watch

Saturday sessions

Denny Hamlin sped to his second Busch Light Pole of the season with a 160.354-mph lap in the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. It’s his second Nashville pole in the last three years and his 42nd in his career — good for 13th on the NASCAR Cup Series’ all-time list.

Joe Gibbs Racing cars were also fast in practice as Ty Gibbs set the pace in the 20-minute session, notching a 159.287-mph lap in the No. 54 JGR Toyota. Ryan Blaney was second-fastest, Bubba Wallace third on the speed chart and Blaney tops in the consecutive 10-lap averages category. | Practice results

Big story line

Four-car breakaway in season’s first half

The 2024 Cup Series campaign officially turned past the halfway point after last weekend’s event at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and for the first time after 18 races, there are four three-time winners at the top of the heap — Christopher Bell, William Byron, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson. Bell joined the group last weekend with his NHMS victory, placing him among the quartet atop the Cup Series Playoffs picture. The six drivers just below them in those standings — Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Austin Cindric, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski and Daniel Suárez — are all one-time winners this year.

With 18 races left on the Cup Series schedule and 10 winners on the books, there’s still plenty to be decided in the eight-race span between now and the regular-season finale at Darlington Raceway on Sept. 1. Six playoff berths are still waiting to be unlocked, and Martin Truex Jr. has the highest points total without a victory. Closer to the bubble, the provisional elimination line is a volatile place. Joey Logano vaulted above it last week, supplanting Bubba Wallace, who tumbled out after a crash and now faces a 13-point deficit to climb his way back in.

Two drivers currently outside the top 16 in Cup Series points have won races this year, with Daniel Suárez (18th place) and Austin Cindric (21st) getting the inside track to the postseason hunt. Another such winner below the top side of the bubble would make the elimination squeeze that much tighter.

Further up the playoff pack, Hendrick Motorsports teammates Elliott and Larson head to Nashville tied atop the Cup Series standings. Both are former Nashville Superspeedway winners, and the path to the Regular Season Championship and its 15 playoff-point bonus goes through them — for now, at least. Hamlin lurks in third place, 40 points back, with designs on passing them both if he gets hot in the summer stretch.

TICKETS: Don’t miss the July 7 Chicago Street Race

History tells us…

So far at Nashville, it’s Chevrolet. The Cup Series history books at Nashville Superspeedway still might come in pamphlet form, but even with the smaller sample size, it’s a 3-for-3 sweep for Chevrolet drivers in Victory Lane at the 1.33-mile track. Larson was first to the winner’s commemorative guitar in 2021, followed by teammate Elliott the next year. Last season’s laurels landed on Ross Chastain, who started from the pole position and led 99 of the 300 laps, including the final 34 in Trackhouse Racing’s No. 1 Camaro.

Positive indicators for Nashville still exist for the Cup Series’ other two manufacturers. Toyota drivers have been runner-up in the two most recent Nashville events, and Ford has enjoyed a modest turnaround after going winless in the first 12 races this year, with Mustang drivers winning three of the last six events.

Nashville’s history also shows a potential trend for qualifying’s bearing on the results. All three Cup Series winners at Nashville have driven to victory from a top-five starting spot.

He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for…

JOSH BERRY. Sunday’s 300-lapper will mark Berry’s first Cup Series start at Nashville, but there hasn’t been much of the typical rookie learning curve in his most recent stretch. Berry is fresh from finishes of seventh at Iowa and third last weekend at New Hampshire, results that stand in sharp contrast to his 55-1 opening odds (13-1 odds on race day).

Though the Stewart-Haas Racing operation is closing down at season’s end, Berry isn’t going out with a whimper, registering four top-10 finishes in the last six races. It’s been a promising audition for a ride next season, and Berry has even more motivation this weekend to perform in front of a hometown crowd. The 33-year-old driver hails from Hendersonville, Tennessee — just northeast of Music City. He’ll take the green flag on the front row in the second starting position Sunday. | Nashville odds

Speed reads

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.

• Fresh face for No. 19: Chase Briscoe to join Joe Gibbs Racing in 2025 | Read article
• Against the odds:
Inside Briscoe’s career arc: ‘There was a miracle in there’ | Read article
• Larson on Briscoe’s move:
No. 5 driver razzes Bell, sizes up new-look JGR | Read article
• Reversing course: Inside Kyle Busch’s quest to shake recent skid | Read article
• The award goes to …:
Ryan Blaney nominated for Best Driver ESPY | Read article
• Watkins Glen go-around: Tire test produces different options, eventful spins | Read article
• Streak, for starters: Chase Elliott, all top 20s so far in 2024 | Photo gallery
• NASCAR Salutes:
Michael McDowell pays Fort Campbell a visit | Read article
• Nashville’s pickers:
Active Cup Series drivers with wins at Nashville Superspeedway | Photo gallery
• Power Rankings: Leaning into Larson’s talent in Tennessee | Photo gallery
• Turning Point: Bell’s ascent, plus the narrowing path for playoff eligibility | Read article
• Racing Insights: A 1-2 punch for JGR? Inside our experts’ projections | Read article
• Field of 16: How the projected playoff picture shakes out with eyes on Nashville | Read article
• 36 for 36: Check out this week’s survivor pool picks | Read article
• Fantasy Update:
Sit vs. start on debate Hamlin, plus Berry’s rise |Read article
• NASCAR Classics:
Some Music City memories from our video archives | Read article
• Paint Scheme Preview: Fresh designs are the Tennessee type | Pick your favorite

Fast facts

Race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.

Pole-starter Denny Hamlin has won the last three Cup Series races on concrete-surfaced tracks — most recently at Dover (April 2024) and the last two at Bristol (March 2024 and September 2023).
A trio of three-time winners from last season have yet to win this season: Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr.
Three drivers have been running at the finish in every race this season: Chase Elliott, Daniel Hemric and Martin Truex Jr.

LEBANON, Tenn. – Denny Hamlin claimed his second pole position of the season and 42nd of his decorated career Saturday afternoon, just bettering his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell to earn the top starting position for Sunday’s Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC, NBC Sports App, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Hamlin’s No. 11 JGR Toyota turned a fast lap of 160.354 mph (29.859 seconds) around the 1.33-mile oval – only .095-second faster than Bell – to claim his second Nashville pole position in the four races the track has hosted.

RELATED: Starting lineup | Weekend schedule

“Felt pretty good about it all day,” the 43-year-old Hamlin said, “seems like we definitely have fixed some of the things we weren’t very good with last year. I definitely feel pretty good about it and we’ll certainly work on it overnight to make it a little bit better and I feel pretty confident that tomorrow we’ll be in contention.”

With a new format to set the starting grid, it puts the pole winner in position one and divides the remaining drivers through the first five rows by speed and qualifying group, so Stewart-Haas Racing’s Josh Berry – who was third-quickest – will start his No. 4 Ford on the outside of the front row Sunday. Bell will start third.

Hamlin is hoping the good starting position will translate into a solid finishing position. The three-race winner this season has finished 24th or worse in the last three races and is ready to get back on track before the summer break in competition in three weeks. Hamlin has a pair of top-10 finishes in the three-race Nashville Superspeedway history, including a best showing of third place last year.

Bell will start on the second row alongside Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson, who co-leads the NASCAR Cup Series championship standings with his Hendrick teammate Chase Elliott and was fastest in the Group A first-round qualifiers.

RFK Racing owner/driver Brad Keselowski will start alongside 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick on Row 3 with Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Ty Gibbs on the fourth row and RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher and Team Penske’s Austin Cindric starting their Fords on Row 5. It’s the best start for Buescher in the last six weeks.

Defending race winner Ross Chastain will roll off 20th. Elliott will start 13th.

Justin Haley’s Rick Ware Racing team was penalized Saturday for an unapproved adjustment that NASCAR officials noted after the No. 51 Ford had passed inspection. NASCAR officials did not allow the team to post a qualifying time, stripped the team of pit-stall selection and ejected car chief JR Norris for the rest of the Nashville weekend.

Haley will start at the rear of the 38-car field, and he will have to make a pass through pit road at the speed limit after Sunday’s green flag.

Gibbs fastest in Cup Series practice

Ty Gibbs set the pace in Saturday afternoon’s practice session, posting a 159.287-mph lap at Nashville Superspeedway.

Gibbs went out in the first of two groups, with the 38-car field split into a pair of 20-minute sessions. His Joe Gibbs Racing No. 54 Toyota was 0.163 seconds ahead of Ryan Blaney, who was second-fastest in the No. 12 Team Penske Ford at 158.428 mph.

MORE: Practice results | At-track photos: Nashville

Bubba Wallace posted the third-best lap at 158.250 mph. Defending race winner Ross Chastain was fourth with Todd Gilliland completing the top five.

Blaney was fastest in the consecutive 10-lap averages category, showing longer-run speed in his No. 12 Ford. Chastain was second-best on the 10-lap averages chart, with Wallace third in that category.

Contributing: Staff reports

LEBANON, Tenn. — Highs and lows are bound to happen during a long NASCAR season, and that’s been the case for Rajah Caruth in his sophomore Craftsman Truck Series campaign.

After going six races without a top-10 result, the 22-year-old driver held a pretty wheel for 150 laps around Nashville Superspeedway Friday night to finish fourth, his best since his rousing victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in March.

“Glad to just kind of have something go our way there,” Caruth said after the race. “Not the best restarts all night. I’d be really loose on stickers and then after a heat cycle, I was just tight, especially in Turn 1. Everywhere else, I’ll be alright, so I just gave up a lot on restarts. My pit crew did amazing tonight, and I’m so proud of those guys. They’ve put in good work at practice the last month or so, and it really showed tonight. So we just got to keep improving and and put on for HendrickCars.com and Spire and everybody at Team Chevy.”

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos

While Caruth remained in the top five for most of the race, it was Christian Eckes putting on one of the most dominant races in series history, leading all 150 circuits around the 1.33-mile concrete oval. He’s the first driver in the Truck Series to lead every lap in an event since Timothy Peters at Bristol Motor Speedway in 2012.

“You know they did really good with their setup,” Caruth said. “I think a lot of the field went how we went last year. The McAnally trucks, we shared a lot of stuff at GMS, and I know we went similar, and the stuff’s fast, and he did a mistake-free night, so he definitely deserved it. I’m just fighting to get back into that conversation on a weekly basis.”

Despite not having a shot at battling Eckes for the race win, Caruth will take the result as much-needed momentum with the Truck Series Playoffs just three races away.

It will also allow for the No. 71 Spire Motorsports team to celebrate and bask in the upcoming Independence Day holiday next week.

“I’m just more pumped for my guys,” Caruth said. “Everybody worked so hard. You sit for a week, and to feel good about something for the Fourth of July for them to celebrate with their families. I feel pretty good about it.”

A month off the circuit will have any driver antsy to get back on track and find success. But Caruth added that he doesn’t walk into a track thinking ‘I’m owed’ given his recent results but Nashville puts Caruth back as someone to watch ahead of the 10-driver fight for the championship, beginning at the Milwaukee Mile in August.

“We’re not back. We’re better,” Caruth said. “So hopefully, we can take that into the playoffs.”

LEBANON, Tenn. – Christian Eckes absolutely dominated Friday night’s NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series’ Rackley Roofing 200 at Nashville Superspeedway, the 23-year old leading all 150 laps – the first time a driver has led every race lap in 12 years.

Eckes, driver of the No. 19 McAnally-Hilgemann Racing Chevrolet, raced forward from a third-place starting position to take the lead from pole winner Stewart Friesen by Turn 2 of the opening lap at the 1.33-mile oval and essentially never looked back. He led by more than three seconds in the closing laps and ultimately crossed the finish line 2.028 seconds ahead of his teammate Daniel Dye – the runner-up showing a career-best effort for the 20-year-old Floridian.

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos

It is the third win of the season for Eckes and extends his championship lead to 40 points over Tricon Garage’s Corey Heim, who finished third after passing Spire Motorsports’ Rajah Caruth on the final lap. McAnally-Hilgemann Racing’s Tyler Ankrum was fifth.

“Can’t say enough about these guys,’’ said Eckes, who has three wins on the season and now eight in his seven seasons in the series. It’s the second time this season (also at Martinsville, Va.) that he has swept both stage wins and claimed the winner’s trophy.

“We were really motivated to get this truck out there. Nice job for the day,’’ added Eckes, who says he can’t ever remember leading every lap in any race he’s competed in.

The win also earned Eckes a $50,000 bonus check for claiming the final leg of the series’ Triple Truck Challenge – Nick Sanchez and Heim are the other winners in the incentive program.

“I saw the 11 (Heim) has four of them [wins] so got a little upset walking in [to Nashville Superspeedway], so now another one to go catch another one,’’ Eckes said.

Grant Enfinger, Ben Rhodes, Matt Mills, Ty Majeski and Jake Garcia rounded out the top 10 in the finishing order. Rhodes’ rally was especially impressive considering how he started.

And while Eckes spent the day up front – mastering every restart on an evening slowed by seven caution flags for 42 laps – there was plenty of action behind him, as the caution count would indicate.

On the other hand, Sanchez, who started his No. 2 Rev Racing Chevy from the rear of the 36-car field after hitting the wall in qualifying, rallied to finish 13th and sits third in the championship – 89 points behind Eckes.

MORE: Weekend schedule: Nashville

Former NASCAR Cup Series star and current FOX Sports NASCAR broadcaster Clint Bowyer finished 17th after his No. 7 Spire Chevrolet suffered damage when the field stacked up on a Lap 60 restart. In his typically colorful manner, Bowyer was frank about his night – the first NASCAR national-series race he’s competed in since retiring from full-time competition in 2020.

“We fought loose-in the whole time from the word go, but I know from a lot of years of experience that’s hard to overcome,’’ said Bowyer, a 10-time NASCAR Cup Series winner and the 2012 championship runner-up.

“I don’t know what happened on the restart, they all checked up in front of me and I crashed,’’ Bowyer said, adding, “I will be back. I promise you there’s no way I’m ending on that.”

Three races remain to set the 10-driver Playoff field. Currently, Tanner Gray, who finished 14th Friday night, sits in the 10th-place position, 14 points ahead of Dye.

The Craftsman Truck Series’ next race is the CRC Brakleen 175, scheduled for Friday, July 12, at Pocono Raceway (5:30 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Note: Post-race inspection in the Craftsman Truck Series garage was completed without major issue, confirming Eckes as the winner. Two teams were found with a single unsecured lug nut in a post-race check – the No. 42 Niece Motorsports Chevrolet for driver Matt Mills and the No. 88 ThorSport Racing Ford of driver Matt Crafton. Both infractions should result in monetary fines for each team’s crew chief in next week’s penalty report, according to guidelines in the NASCAR Rule Book.

Contributing: Staff reports

NASCAR.com’s 36 for 36 continues at Nashville Superspeedway.

With 36 races and 36 full-time Charter cars, our players select one car per race, but there’s a simple twist: once they’ve made the pick, they can’t choose that car again for the rest of the 36-race season. Yes, that means every car will be selected exactly once … a survivor pool, by another name.

Follow along weekly as our panel of pickers — Dustin Albino from Jayski, along with Steve Luvender and Cameron Richardson from NASCAR.com — embarks on a season-long journey to think like strategists and prove their picking prowess.

We’ll also feature a fourth “community” 36 for 36 pick each week, as decided by fan vote on the r/NASCAR subreddit. Can the collective vote topple our trio of full-timers?

Current Standings:

  1. Steve Luvender: 459
  2. r/NASCAR Community: -25
  3. Dustin Albino: -29
  4. Cameron Richardson: -56

Race 19 of 36: Nashville

There’s another change atop our leaderboard following New Hampshire. Dustin Albino entered last week as the points leader, and his pick of Joey Logano seemed like a good bet to add to his cushion through the first two stages. Trouble early in the final stage, however, relegated the No. 22 to a 32nd-place, crash-damaged finish. Cameron Richardson’s Martin Truex Jr. selection resulted in a solid, much-needed ninth-place finish, while both Steve Luvender and r/NASCAR chose race winner Christopher Bell. The 35-point swing sinks Dustin to third in the standings. Nashville Superspeedway kicks off the second half of the season. As a unique stretch of tracks over the summer lies ahead and desperation to make the playoffs grows, anything can happen.

Jayski’s Dustin Albino: No. 1, Ross Chastain
36 for 36 graphic for Dustin Albino's Nashville selection.

Dustin’s pick last week: No. 22, Joey Logano (22 points)

Total season points: 430 (third place)

Dustin: Ugh, I’m beginning to feel like Kyle Busch where nothing can seem to go right in my weekly picks. Joey Logano had a solid start to New Hampshire by scoring 17 stage points only for the final stage to go haywire. We’re not mailing it in though, because Ross Chastain has mastered Nashville since the Cup Series first raced in Music City in 2021. He’s never finished outside the top five in three starts at the 1.33-mile track and is the defending winner. The No. 1 team seems to always maximize its days and churn out a respectable finish.

NASCAR.com’s Steve Luvender: No. 99, Daniel Suárez36 for 36 graphic for Steve Luvender's Nashville selection.

Steve’s pick last week: No. 20, Christopher Bell (57 points)

Total season points: 459 (first place)

Steve: It’s nice to be back on top after making my first race-winning pick of the year. I’ll hope to continue the success by picking Daniel Suárez this week. The idea of plugging in Erik Jones or Bubba Wallace this weekend tempted me, with their above-average finishes at Nashville in the Next Gen car, but the Music City is a Trackhouse city — that’s worth something, in my book. Suárez has never finished worse than 15th in three starts at the track, and his 15.4 average finish in Tootsie’s Orchid Lounge colors (well, color — pretty much just orchid) is a few spots better than his races sporting different schemes. If you can’t tell, I’m a believer that a paint scheme can make a car go faster.

NASCAR.com’s Cameron Richardson: No. 1, Ross Chastain36 for 36 graphic with Cameron Richardson's Nashville selection.

Cameron’s pick last week: No. 19, Martin Truex Jr. (42 points)

Total season points: 403 (fourth place)

Cameron: Only two drivers have scored top fives in all three Nashville races to date. Kyle Larson is one of them, Ross Chastain the other. Along with having the best average finish (2.7) among Cup drivers at the concrete oval, Chastain enters Sunday as the defending race winner. 2024 hasn’t been the season Chastain and the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing team have hoped for so far, but they can repeat their breakthrough triumph in the Trackhouse Entertainment Group’s backyard.

r/NASCAR Community: No. 3, Austin Dillon
36 for 36 graphic for reddit Nashville selection.

r/NASCAR’s pick last week: No. 20, Christopher Bell (57 points)

Total season points: 434 (second place)

The Redditors have spoken, and r/NASCAR voted Austin Dillon as the community pick for Nashville. Can they go for a second winning pick in a row? 

From the voting thread

u/SeattlePassedTheBall: “12th, 14th, and 13th in his 3 starts here with the [Next Gen]. I think we use him here.”

u/Substantial-Seat8380: “[Three] top-15s at Nashville. There are better options for drafting tracks still available, so why not use Austin Dillon here.”

Check back next week to see how our pickers fared as the season-long 36 for 36 journey continues.

And, if you’ve got a competitive itch beyond meticulously managing your Fantasy Live lineup each week, feel free to save or print your own 36 for 36 sheet and see if you can beat our pickers and the Reddit community!

Throughout the 2024 NASCAR season, Ken Martin, director of historical content for the sanctioning body, will offer his suggestions on which historical races fans should watch from the NASCAR Classics library in preparation for each upcoming race weekend.

Martin has worked exclusively for NASCAR since 2008 but has been involved with the sport since 1982, overseeing various projects. He has worked in the broadcast booth for hundreds of races, assisting the broadcast team with different tasks. This includes calculating the “points as they run” for the historic 1992 finale, the Hooters 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The following suggestions are Ken’s picks to watch before this weekend’s Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway.

1970 Nashville 420:

The NASCAR Cup Series arrived at Nashville in July 1970 for their third race over the previous six days.

Bobby Allison captured the race at Bristol on July 19, while Richard Petty was victorious in Maryville, Tennessee on July 24. One night later, the Cup Series was back at it yet again at Nashville Fairgrounds Speedway.

LeeRoy Yarbrough put his No. 98 Ford on the pole for the race, while Catawba, North Carolina’s Bobby Isaac was alongside him in second.

The race was broadcast live on television, with Jim McKay and Chris Economaki hosting the event. It also was the first time that the series races on the new 0.625-mile, 35-degree banking configuration.

The race was a true test of attrition, as only nine of the 36 starters finished the event. Yarbrough saw his day end on the 45th lap after blowing a tire and crashing into the wall.

Series points leader James Hylton was one of the drivers who had issues with the new banking. He was also involved in a crash and finished 28th.

Isaac, who dominated the race, was the only driver to complete all 420 laps. He led 214 of them en route to Victory Lane. He took control of the points lead from Hylton and eventually captured the series championship.

Bobby Isaac poses with car.
NASCAR Research & Archives Center | Getty Images

2021 Ally 400:

Kyle Larson entered the inaugural NASCAR Cup Series race at Nashville Superspeedway quite possibly as hot as a driver could ever be.

The driver, in his first year behind the wheel of the No. 5 car for Rick Hendrick, finished second at Darlington Raceway, Dover Motor Speedway and Circuit of The Americas.

He backed that up with a dominating victory in the Coca-Cola 600 from the pole, which saw him lead 327 of the race’s 400 laps. He led over half of the laps at Sonoma after winning the pole, ending that race in Victory Lane as well. That pushed his streak of finishing second or better to five straight races and moved him from ninth to second in the points over those five events.

Larson also captured the All-Star Race victory the previous week at Texas Motor Speedway, which netted the driver an additional $1,000,000 in race winnings.

It was no surprise that Larson was dominant yet again, as he led 264 of the race’s 300 laps to continue his historically torrid stretch.

His three straight victories saw Larson lead 648 of the 792 total laps, an eye-popping 82%.

Ross Chastain, behind the wheel of Larson’s old Chip Ganassi-powered No. 42 car, finished almost five seconds behind the race winner in second.

Kyle Larson celebrates win at Nashville in 2021.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images

2023 Ally 400:

The 17th stop on the 2023 schedule was highlighted by yet another surprising effort by Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain.

The Alva, Florida driver entered the race tied for third in the season standings, after leading the standings for seven races.

He promptly put his No. 1 Chevrolet on the pole for the first time in his career. Justin Haley was a surprise near the front of the field, qualifying his Kaulig Racing ride in third, behind Chastain and Tyler Reddick.

Chastain led a race-high 99 laps but had to hold off the Joe Gibbs Racing duo of Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin as the drivers raced towards the checkered flag.

The teammates didn’t have enough to pass Chastain, who captured his first victory of the season.

Following Chastain and the Joe Gibbs Racing duo were three Hendrick Motorsports cars, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and William Byron.

Chastain’s victory moved him to second in the season standings, just 18 points behind Truex.

Ross Chastain celebrates win at Nashville in 2023.
Logan Riely | Getty Images

Editor’s Note: Racing Insights’ playoff projections use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points.

With the Cup Series Playoffs on the mind throughout the season, what if there was a way to project how the 16-driver field could look before each race weekend?

It now exists via Racing Insights. From now until the start of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, “The Field of 16” will give fans a weekly look at where their favorite drivers could potentially land in the postseason field — and the likelihood of having a shot at the Bill France Cup.

Here’s this week’s update on the projections heading into Nashville Superspeedway.

NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS POST-LOUDON

DriverBefore LoudonEntering NashvilleDifference
Chris Buescher67.32%85.72%+18.40
Ty Gibbs85.47%90.08%+4.61
Bubba Wallace29.21%22.11%-7.10
Alex Bowman86.37%70.11%-16.26
nashville playoff predictor
PROBABILITY CALCULATED BY RACING INSIGHTS AHEAD OF ALLY 400, JUNE 30, 2024

DRIVERS SOLIDLY IN PLAYOFF PICTURE

Ten drivers are provisionally locked into the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs, with four of those guaranteed as Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Christopher Bell have all won multiple times this season.

With eight races remaining in the regular season, Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are tied at the top of the Cup Series standings that will award 15 playoff points to the regular-season points leader after the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.

Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Austin Cindric, Daniel Suárez and defending champ Ryan Blaney each have a win in 2024. With four new winners already this year compared to 2023, it’s best to have a good points cushion to the provisional elimination line as Martin Truex Jr. and Ross Chastain have as they sit with 95% or better probabilities of making the 16-driver field.

LAST 4 IN

Despite so-so finishes over the last month, Ty Gibbs saw a slight bump in his probability as he returns to the 90% mark. His last top-10 performance came during May’s Coca-Cola 600.

Chris Buescher saw the highest bump in playoff probability, going from under 70% before New Hampshire to above 85% entering the ‘Music City.’ Buescher owns two top fives across the last three races but finished 18th last year in Nashville.

Arguably, the biggest loser of the weekend was Alex Bowman. Despite 10 top 10s already in 2024, an engine failure at New Hampshire saw a massive dip in Bowman’s playoff probability, dropping over 16 points before Nashville. One factor could be last season’s summer stretch for Bowman, where he only mustered two top 10s between April and August.

Joey Logano looked to be on his way to a massive points day or even a win Sunday at New Hampshire before locking up on a restart during the final stage and wrecking into Elliott. Scoring a large chunk of stage points, however, Logano was able to move into the provisional 16th and final playoff spot by 13 points ahead of Bubba Wallace.

FIRST 4 OUT

It’s hard to have a race as bad as Kyle Busch had at New Hampshire. After two earlier incidents, the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet slammed the wall under caution on the wet-weather tires, ending the miserable day for Busch and Co. Busch is now down 45 points to the 16-driver playoff field, and there are little signs pointing to results turning around for the team.

The same could also be said for Bubba Wallace, who was having a mediocre day at Loudon before being wiped out by Noah Gragson in a multicar incident late last Sunday. Now, with just a probability slightly above 22%, Wallace needs to have a decent run at Nashville to somewhat plateau that probability.

Michael McDowell and Josh Berry round out the playoff picture once again. Berry was in the fight for victory for a second consecutive win and came up just short Sunday with a third-place result. McDowell was also in the mix in Loudon before an assertive restart in the closing laps caused himself and Ryan Blaney to spin.

WHO CAN SHAKE UP PLAYOFF PICTURE AT NASHVILLE?

Based on trends in the first three Cup events at Nashville, it’s hard to pinpoint an underdog breaking through for their first win of 2024. While winless this season, Chastain’s 98% probability isn’t much of a shake up but entering as the defending winner and owning the best average finish at the track in the series (2.7), the No. 1 Chevrolet could very well be the 11th different winner of the season come Sunday evening.

MORE: Racing Insights predicts Nashville | 2024 Cup Series schedule

Before each race weekend, check back into The Field of 16 to see the latest projections of the 2024 Cup Series playoff field.