The Daytona 500 is the most prestigious race on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, but a victory in the event is also the most elusive for top-tier drivers. While Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott have all won a Cup championship, a “Great American Race” win remains absent from their resumes.
Those five drivers reside at or near the top of the odds board for the 2024 edition, set for Monday at Daytona International Speedway (4 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
RELATED: 2024 Daytona Speedweeks schedule | 2024 Daytona 500 odds
Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin, both of whom have won Cup titles and the Daytona 500 (Hamlin three times in the latter, in fact), are also in the mix.
Betting odds for superspeedway races, though, are unlike others we see in the Cup Series as “favorites” are priced in double-digit territory. On shorter tracks and road courses, favorites are given much shorter odds than Logano’s 9-to-1 price at DraftKings.
Here are the Daytona 500 odds as of Friday morning at DraftKings and SuperBook USA. We always advise to shop at multiple sportsbooks to find the best prices for the bets you wish to make.
| DRIVER | DRAFTKINGS | SUPERBOOK |
| Joey Logano | +900 | +1000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1000 | +1200 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1000 | +1200 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1100 | +1200 |
| Kyle Busch | +1200 | +1600 |
| Kyle Larson | +1400 | +2000 |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 | +1400 |
| Chris Buescher | +1800 | +1600 |
| Bubba Wallace | +1800 | +1800 |
| William Byron | +1800 | +1800 |
| Michael McDowell | +1800 | +2500 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2000 | +2000 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +2000 | +2500 |
| Christopher Bell | +2500 | +1400 |
| Ross Chastain | +2500 | +3000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +2800 | +2500 |
| Alex Bowman | +2800 | +3000 |
| Erik Jones | +3000 | +2500 |
| Chase Briscoe | +3500 | +5000 |
| Austin Cindric | +3500 | +3000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +3500 | +3000 |
| Austin Dillon | +4000 | +4000 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Cindric and Michael McDowell, meanwhile, are the three most recent Daytona 500 winners, and took the checkers at odds of +3300, +3300 and +10000, respectively.
So, while the opportunity to bet on a top driver at relatively long odds may be tempting, the betting prices imply how random superspeedway racing can be.
“This, along with the other superspeedways, needs to be handled with kid gloves, given the unpredictable nature of pack racing,” Todd Fuhrman, a NASCAR bettor, former Las Vegas oddsmaker and CBS Sports analyst, said in an email to NASCAR.com, “… even with prices that appear attractive on the surface.”
“So much of these races is just being at the right place at the time and having the right guy behind you to push you,” said Westgate SuperBook VP of Risk Management Ed Salmons, one of the most influential NASCAR oddsmakers in the sports betting industry. “There’s just so much luck involved.”
To Salmons’ point, five out of the last seven Daytona 500 winners led only one lap — the final one.
We can’t blame you if you want some action on this race, but because of the unpredictability of Daytona, it’s wise to bet lightly.
“Despite the level of excitement for the first points-paying race of the season, this is one of the races (along with Daytona-2 and Talladega Superspeedway) where I’ll wager a fraction of what I would on the intermediate or short tracks,” Fuhrman said. “There’s some upside to be gleaned but the amount of good bets that go up in smoke after 199 laps make me tread carefully with 35+ races left to maximize an edge.”
Worthy long shots
We’ve established that this race is ripe for a fat potential payout, so which long shots deserve a look from bettors?
Fuhrman has Corey LaJoie circled. LaJoie has posted back-to-back top 10s on superspeedways and seven top 20s over the last 12 of these races.
“I’m a sucker for Corey LaJoie on plate tracks, and at a number of 50-1 or higher, he makes sense as a worthwhile dart throw,” Fuhrman said.
Austin Cindric may also jump off the page at underdog bettors. While his Penske Racing teammates are priced among the favorites, he’s available at +3500 at DraftKings. He piloted the No. 2 Ford to a Daytona 500 win two years ago, and he finished second in the Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 on Thursday night.
“He’s (priced) two-and-a-half times higher than (Logano and Blaney), and he fits the profile of everything that could go right in a certain race when he won the 500 (in 2022),” Salmons said when we spoke on Tuesday. “(He hasn’t) won since, but sure, if you’re looking for a longer shot, he definitely offers value.
“Part of the reason he’s that high is just because no one wants to bet him. I don’t have a penny on him, so I went from 25-to- 1 to 30.”
What drivers are being bet early?
While betting on the Daytona 500 opened shortly after Blaney claimed the 2023 Cup title in Phoenix in November, Salmons anticipates 90% of the action coming Friday through race day.
Based on some of the early money, Salmons adjusted Kyle Busch from +2000 to +1600, and he also said Denny Hamlin, Austin Dillon and Erik Jones drew pre-Speedweeks interest from his customers.
At BetMGM, Busch accounts for 8.3% of the bets placed and 12.5% of money wagered, leading in both categories, according to figures released by the sportsbook on Thursday.
Hamlin has also been popular at BetMGM, attracting 5.3% of bets (second most) and 6.7% of handle (third most). Kyle Larson is third in ticket count at 5.0%, and Keselowski is second in money wagered at 7.3%.
Marcus DiNitto is Content Manager at Catena Media, where he manages the company’s sports betting partnership with The Sporting News. NASCAR is one of the many sports Marcus enjoys wagering on. Follow him on Twitter; do not follow his picks.