WATKINS GLEN, N.Y. – On the outside looking in, Daniel Suárez is prepared to fight for his spot in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

Holding onto the final provisional postseason position, Bubba Wallace is hopeful to fend off the challenges being thrown his way.

It culminates with Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), the penultimate race of the Cup Series regular season.

MORE: Cup standings | Watkins Glen schedule

Suárez enters 17th in the standings, just outside the 16-driver grid and 28 points back of Wallace. The Trackhouse Racing driver made the playoffs for the first time last year thanks to a win at Sonoma Raceway, another road course. He’s never qualified for the postseason on points, but that doesn’t mean he’s backing down from the challenge.

“The way I personally perform, I love being in these kinds of scenarios,” Suárez said Saturday. “I feel like as a race-car driver and as an athlete, you really live for moments like this. You don’t get to experience moments like this all the time. And when you do experience these moments, I feel like that’s really when you get to show what you’re built of.”

Suárez’s third-place finish last week at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course was “the worst third-place I’ve ever had … by a lot,” he said. After winning the pole for the event, Suárez led six laps and was hot on leader Michael McDowell’s tail for much of the event along with that of Chase Elliott. But a slow stop that saw the air hose get caught beneath his left-front tire under green-flag conditions dropped the No. 99 car over 10 seconds behind McDowell.

Watkins Glen offers a chance for the team to rebound from a costly miscue with just two chances left to make the playoffs.

“We had long meetings, long conversations, this week about Indianapolis,” Suárez said. “I think that even though it’s not great that it happened, I feel like we learned a lot from that mistake because there are a lot of people that could have done something different, something better to avoid that problem, including myself. So I feel like as a team, we grew a lot in the last few days and I’m excited for this weekend’s challenge.”

Wallace is on the other side of the picture – the good side, for now. The problem for Wallace, driver of the No. 23 Toyota for 23XI Racing, is that there is a hungry pack of drivers behind him. And if another new winner emerges from behind him in points – a la Suárez, Ty Gibbs, Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman or AJ Allmendinger – Wallace would suddenly be on the outside looking in.

“Go Michael McDowell. Go Tyler Reddick,” Wallace said with a laugh. “Go everybody else that’s in front of us.”

Wallace historically struggles on road courses, backed by the stats which note one top-five finish and two top 10s on the tracks with right turns. In one sense, he’s encouraged entering Sunday’s race, knowing at least his effort has made up for his lack of results. In another, he’s discouraged his efforts haven’t been rewarded.

“I’m coming in here with a positive outlook,” Wallace said. “I’m excited to get on track and see. It’s just when you get in the race, I don’t know what happens. You know, I just sit there and ride. Wherever I start’s wherever I finish. Like the race craft (is a problem).

“So I got a lot of people in my corner trying to help out, which is good and getting us better. And so we’re not just staying stagnant. We’re attempting and putting all the efforts forward to get better results here.”

Two other drivers eager for no new winners? Former champions Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski. The two are comfortably above the provisional elimination line – by 145 points and 143 points, respectively – but if new victors below them break through at both Watkins Glen and Daytona, only one of the two will advance.

“I think we knew looking back four or five weeks ago that you couldn’t count on points getting you in,” Keselowski said. “So I wouldn’t say there’s any big surprise for us. Actually, I was working the other way, where I was getting more surprised that there was an opportunity to make it in on points than vice versa. So you know, I think it’s up to us to go execute and have that opportunity.”

Gibbs is just behind Suárez in the point standings, but his 21-point deficit to Suárez means the rookie is 49 markers out of a postseason position. In the playoff hunt as a first-year full-timer, Gibbs is relishing the opportunity but reflective upon what’s kept him out of Victory Lane thus far.

“I think just a lack of execution on my part,” Gibbs said. “I think we’ve had great, great cars, great pit stops. I think it just comes down to me being somewhat of a rookie and having to be better in a lot of different situations.”

RELATED: Catch up on the playoff bubble

Then of course is Chase Elliott, whose track record at Watkins Glen is exceptional but sits in a must-win position entering Sunday’s race. But the 2020 champion said Saturday he made too many mistakes in qualifying en route to a 15th-place starting position. The five-time defending recipient of the Most Popular Driver Award has never missed the playoffs.

Through the frustration was a glimmer of optimism, thanks to the speed of Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron, who starts second behind Denny Hamlin on Sunday.

“William had a lot of pace there, so that’s good,” Elliott said. “Hopefully I can figure out how to drive the vehicle faster.”

MORE: How Elliott blocks out noise, leans on team

The Glen marks, in many drivers’ minds, the last chance to control their postseason fates. The unpredictable nature of superspeedways such as Daytona next weekend provides far more uncertainty than clarity.

“Daytona, to show up there in a must-win situation is like going to Vegas and having to hit the nearest slot machine for the jackpot,” Elliott said. “That’s just silly. So to me, this is the opportunity that we have the most control over and didn’t have a very good start to the weekend. Puts you in a tough spot, but look: It’s nobody’s fault but mine that we’re in the spot we’re in.”

WATKINS GLEN, N.Y. — Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin won the pole position for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Go Bowling at The Glen (3 p.m. ET, USA, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) – taking to the track twice in Saturday’s final qualifying session alone and bettering his already field-best speed in his second outing.

This is the fourth pole position of the season and third road course pole – also at Sonoma, Calif. and Chicago Street Race – for Hamlin, whose No. 11 JGR Toyota turned a lap of 125.298 mph around the 3.45-mile, 11-turn course in picturesque upstate New York.

RELATED: Starting lineup | At-track photos: Watkins Glen

“I feel confident in the speed of my car,” said Hamlin, whose only NASCAR Cup Series road course win came at Watkins Glen in 2016. “I still think in the top 10, there’s maybe seven better road course drivers overall putting all the laps together and speed. But I think track position is the biggest factor over all that, so it’s up to me to make sure I execute at the beginning of the race and then set the tone from there, have good pit stops, have good strategy and let’s see where we’re at.”

Hamlin will start alongside Hendrick Motorsports driver William Byron on the front row – besting Byron’s mark in the No. 24 Hendrick Chevrolet by a slight 0.19 seconds. Last week’s Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course winner Michael McDowell will start third, followed by Hamlin’s JGR rookie teammate Ty Gibbs and Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson, the two-time defending winner at the track.

Kaulig Racing’s AJ Allmendinger, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell, 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick, Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch and Spire Motorsports’ Corey LaJoie rounded out the top 10. It’s a career-best qualifying effort for LaJoie, who will roll off 10th in the No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet.

Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott was among those that did not advance past the first round of qualifying. He was sixth fastest in Group A, with only the top five moving to the final round session, and his speed will place him 15th on Sunday’s grid.

Elliott was understandably frustrated Saturday about his qualifying. With two regular-season races remaining, the former series champion will need to win a race to advance to his ninth-consecutive Playoffs. And Watkins Glen has been a productive venue for the 2021 champion. He won back-to-back races here in 2018-19. The 2018 victory was his first ever at the Cup Series level.

“Unfortunate,” Elliott said of his qualifying run Saturday, noting he was very disappointed after having shown good pace in practice.

“Our prep coming in was really good,” Elliott said. “[Teammate] William [Byron] had a lot of pace there, so that’s good. Hopefully, I can figure out how to drive the vehicle faster.

“Daytona, to show up there [next week] and it be a must-win situation is like going to Vegas and having to hit the nearest slot machine for the jackpot,” Elliott continued. “That’s just silly. To me, this is opportunity we have the most control over and didn’t have a very good start to the weekend, so it puts you in a tough spot.

“It’s no one’s fault but mine that we’re in the spot we’re in. Hate it, but it is what it is, and we’ll fight tomorrow to the last lap, and hopefully, something will fall our way.”

Bubba Wallace, who currently holds the final playoff transfer position, will start 12th. Daniel Suárez, who is in 17th place in the championship and 28 points behind Wallace, will start 14th.

Martin Truex Jr., who currently leads the NASCAR Cup Series standings by 60 points over Hamlin, will start 19th on Sunday.

AJ Allmendinger fastest during practice

With a speed of 123.967 mph, Kaulig Racing’s Allmendinger led the field during the final session. LaJoie, Byron, Larson and Bell rounded out the top five.

MORE: Practice results 

Allmendinger’s best circuit came on Lap 5, where he rounded the 2.45-mile road course in 71.148 seconds.

Contributing: Staff Reports

Chase Elliott is concerned with one thing and one thing only: being the best possible driver for his No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team.

A multitude of unique circumstances has increased the chatter surrounding Elliott’s bid for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. The 2020 Cup champion and five-time defending recipient of the Most Popular Driver Award sits outside the 16-driver postseason grid with two regular-season races remaining, tied for 19th in the standings with teammate Alex Bowman, both 80 points away from a playoff position.

MORE: Cup playoff standings | Weekend schedule: Watkins Glen

Elliott’s thoughts are clear though, no matter how murky 2023 has been for him after missing seven races – six due to a March snowboarding injury and another due to suspension.

“I think it just reaffirms how little outside noise matters,” Elliott told NASCAR.com in a Tuesday phone interview. “And it really makes you put even more emphasis on the things that do make a difference and just makes you pay less attention to the things that don’t. And when you really boil things down, there is just so much chatter and so much noise that goes on week to week. And as I have gotten older and as I have spent more time doing this stuff, I just care less and less about the noise and more about the things that make a difference.

“And ultimately, that’s performance on track each week and making sure I’m showing up for my team prepared and making sure that we’re treating the fans the way they need to be treated at the race track, and the folks that are there to support you. So you know, I just try to show up each week as prepared as I can be as a race-car driver for my guys and let them know that I’m trying to carry my weight as best as I can.”

Elliott has never been a stranger to being the center of attention. Taking over Jeff Gordon’s No. 24 car at Hendrick Motorsports as a 20-year-old rookie will do that … especially when you’re the son of 16-time Most Popular Driver and 1988 Cup champion Bill Elliott. Navigating the chaos of that white noise in the midst of a playoff pursuit is just another wrinkle added to the weekly grind of being a top-tier Cup driver.

RELATED: Chase Elliott through the years

That’s where crew chief Alan Gustafson plays a critical role. Gustafson, who has found himself atop a Hendrick Motorsports pit box since 2005, carries a perennially even-keeled demeanor that allows him to lead with a clear head regardless of circumstances.

“One thing that makes Alan so good is the guy just stays middle of the road no matter what,” Elliott said. “Even when things are going the best they can possibly be going or things are the absolute worst they could possibly be. He just rides and maintains this middle-of-the-road attitude that I think you have to have to endure a long period of time in the sport. …

“Certainly this year, he’s been through some more challenges and just always keeps his head down and shows up to work every day, trying to be his very best. And that’s what he’s always done.”

Chase Elliott (L) and crew chief Alan Gustafson talk in the garage
Meg Oliphant | Getty Images

That mentality has led Gustafson to success with every driver for whom he’s served as crew chief – a resume that stars current or future NASCAR Hall of Famers Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon and Elliott. Gustafson’s innate ability to maximize each driver’s unique strengths is reflected in his 38 Cup wins – 18 of which with Elliott since 2018.

“I feel like he’s always just tried to make me a priority and (provide) what I need and letting me be me,” Elliott said. “And I think that’s one thing that has extracted performance is he’s always just let me be myself, and he goes to work into making things the best he can be around that. And he’s never asked me to change. You know, we always work together and we have a very open and honest relationship and nobody gets their feelings hurt. And all those things are very important. So it’s been a pleasure to work with him and I hope he’s not going away any time soon. I hope I’m not either.”

The focus now shifts to Watkins Glen International, one of Elliott’s best tracks on the Cup Series circuit and the site of his first career win in 2018, claiming another at the 2.45-mile road course in 2019. A third victory at The Glen on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) is nearly a necessity in order to qualify for the playoffs, with only this week and next at Daytona left in the regular season.

MORE: Where Racing Insights predicts Elliott to finish Sunday

The No. 9 Chevrolet led a race-high 29 laps in the 2022 event in Upstate New York and came home fourth after teammate Kyle Larson ran Elliott wide on a late restart on the way to the win. Can the team replicate such a performance with so much on the line for a driver who’s never missed the postseason in seven previous seasons?

“I don’t see why not,” Elliott said. “Is that guaranteed? No, it’s not, unfortunately; I would love to have that kind of pace guaranteed again. But you know, that’s just not how it works. But we can certainly take the things that we have had success with and the things that we feel like we’ve gained at a road course and try to apply it this weekend and hopefully execute a good race.”

The circumstances for Elliott are in some ways new – and in some ways familiar. He compared his current ordeal to must-win scenarios he and his crew have faced throughout previous playoff runs in order to lock into the Championship 4, the final and title round of the NASCAR Playoffs. Elliott has made the final round in each of the past three seasons.

“You’re having your back up against the wall throughout rounds of the playoffs, so, you know, it’s really no different than where we are now,” Elliott said. “But I think the most important piece of being in these situations is having a good process week to week that is something that you can consistently do and continue to show up with, and know that when we go to work on Monday, the things that we’re talking about Monday (are) relevant and important, and it’s making a difference for our next conversation on Wednesday or Thursday.

“And then when we finalize things on Wednesday or Thursday, we’re as prepared as we can be when we get to the track on Saturday. And that process is the same for us every week. And I just think trusting in that process and knowing that it’s a good one and staying consistent in it is the best thing you can do because like I said, there is no magic ‘win’ button.”

Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International

(⏰ Sunday, 3 p.m. ET | 📺 USA, NBC Sports App | 📻 MRN, SiriusXM)

Everything you need to know for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Watkins Glen, the 25th points-paying race of the 2023 Cup Series campaign.

Weekend schedule | TV schedule | Weather tracker | Watkins Glen 101

📍 Location: Watkins Glen, New York
📐 Track length: 2.45 miles
🎟️ Buy tickets: Find weekend passes, seats for the race
💰 Cup Series race purse: $7,154,312
📏 Race distance: 90 laps | 220.5 miles
🔢 Stages: 20 | 40 | 90

🚪 Entry list: Cup Series drivers entered
📋 Starting lineup: Hamlin starts at the front
🚗 Pit stall assignments:
Full grid for Sunday’s race
🏆 Most recent winner: Kyle Larson, summer 2022

Key things to watch 🔑

Saturday’s sessions

Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin took a milestone 40th career NASCAR Cup Series pole at Watkins Glen International. Hamlin edged out Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron and last Sunday’s winner at the Indianapolis Road Course, Michael McDowell, as the No. 34 team looks to score back-to-back road-course wins. Ty Gibbs and Kyle Larson round out the top five for Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen (3 p.m. ET, USA, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). | Read the full practice, qualifying recap

Big story line

Can Michael McDowell win back-to-back races? McDowell heads to the road course in Upstate New York after a dominant performance at the Brickyard in a statement win. The Front Row Motorsports driver led 54 of 82 laps and held off Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott in the final laps to visit Indianapolis Victory Lane and punch his ticket to the playoffs. To put McDowell’s strong road-course racing record into a greater perspective, he currently leads all active Cup Series drivers in points scored on road courses this year with a total of 171 points. The next closest is Kyle Larson, who has scored 35 fewer points than McDowell on road courses. Another strong showing on Sunday at Watkins Glen for the No. 34 Ford is a high possibility. McDowell has seven top-10 finishes in the last nine road-course races and finished sixth at The Glen last year. Building off the momentum from Indy, McDowell, crew chief Travis Peterson and Front Row will look to show the Cup Series garage the team’s performance at the Indianapolis Road Course was not a one-off show as they look to compete for another win at Watkins Glen. | Inside the Race: McDowell McDominates at Indy

History tells us…

Chase Elliott can punch his ticket to the Cup Series Playoffs with another Watkins Glen win. Entering the Watkins Glen race weekend 80 points below the elimination line, Elliott’s only hope of making the postseason is winning on Sunday or taking his chances at the regular-season finale at Daytona. Given the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing, Watkins Glen could be the No. 9 team’s last chance to compete for a championship in 2023. However, with their backs against the wall, there is no better driver to go to battle with everything on the line than Elliott. In the last four races at Watkins Glen, the Hendrick Motorsports driver has finished no worse than fourth place, which includes two wins in 2018 and 2019. Elliott’s seven road course victories are the most among active Cup Series drivers. Road-course win No. 8 and his third at The Glen on Sunday would have greater implications in a challenging season of playing catch-up that has been impacted by injury and a one-race suspension after Charlotte. | Preview Show: Playoff crunch time at Watkins Glen International

He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for…

Christopher Bell. In his fourth full season in the Cup Series, Bell has shown plenty of speed on the road courses. He got his first career win in NASCAR’s premier series at the Daytona Road Course in 2021. The driver of the N0. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota also picked up another road-course win last year, in a stylish walk-off win at Charlotte to advance to the Round of 8 in the playoffs. Bell comes to The Glen with 10-1 odds of winning the race. In his only two career Cup starts at Watkins Glen, he finished seventh (2021) and eighth (2022), respectively. Given Toyota’s improvement on road courses this year and the flashy speed Bell has shown in previous road races, look for him to potentially contend for his second win of 2023. | Relive last year’s finish at Watkins Glen

Talkin’ Trophies 🔍 

In this installment of ‘Talkin’ Trophies’, we learn about the unique Corning trophy from Watkins Glen International.

Familiar favorites ⭐️

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles. 

• At-track photos: Scroll through gallery
• Bubble Watch: In-depth look at the playoff picture as regular season winds down | Get the scoop
• Paint Scheme Preview:
See the schemes for Watkins Glen | Pick a favorite 
• Power Rankings: Michael McDowell moves up four spots as he seeks his second consecutive Cup Series win | Latest driver rankings
• Stacking Pennies:
Corey LaJoie chats with Justin Haley about his 2024 move to Rick Ware Racing and more | Listen to the podcast

💎 NASCAR 75: Learn more about the history of the sport, from pioneers to current stars | Visit NASCAR 75 hub

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🔮 Advance to Victory Lane: Racing Insights projects the finishing order

Last season, Kevin Ford won four races in the Better Baker Sportsman division at Berlin Raceway on his way to a track championship.

This year, he’s already surpassed his 2022 win total.

Ford picked up his fifth victory of the season last week at Berlin, a NASCAR-sanctioned, 7/16-mile paved oval in Marne, Michigan.​ All of Ford’s success behind the wheel of the race car is made even more impressive by the fact that he’s only been racing cars for three years.

Since about 2009, Ford competed solely on iRacing​. During that time, he also helped on the pit crew of a friend who races at Berlin.

About three years ago, another friend decided to buy a car and start a race team. The friend asked Ford if he would like to drive.

“It was a little new direction for us,” Ford said.

The transition from the simulator to the real thing was a relatively easy one for Ford; he felt he had already learned the fastest way to get around different tracks and had a good idea of how to approach race craft in real life.

He thinks his time iRacing gave him a leg up on other inexperienced drivers.

“On iRacing, you know how to start and restart a race, you recognize the people around you and how to pass. All that stuff plays in,” Ford said. “It’s not dead realistic, its not a one-to-one conversion anywhere, but it definitely gets you pointed in the right direction and gives you a head start on people. If you didn’t have iRacing or real racing, I think you’d need an extra season or two to really get your feet underneath you.”

There is one big, obvious difference that Ford has found when it comes to the real car.

“It’s easier and it’s harder in different ways,” he said. “iRacing is harder to drive the car at times because you don’t have the seat of the pants feel that you would want. In a real car you can feel the tires a lot better, and I think that makes it a lot easier to push the car to the limit.

“But, you go to real life and you have to add in fear, of course. Then it gets harder. You don’t have the free reset you have in iRacing. There’s no money involved when you wreck a car in iRacing. There’s no injuries involved when you wreck a car in iRacing. So you get all these new sensations like, ‘Oh, I can wreck a race car. But I can also see the concrete wall,’ and that takes some of that away from you. Add fear into the equation, that gets a little tough to do in real life.”

Ford had his first brush with danger three weeks ago when he crashed into the frontstretch wall at Berlin. It was the first time in his career he’s had to do major repairs to his car.

“We’ve been fortunate and it’s been bound to happen eventually,” he said. “You don’t race very long without getting involved in an accident.”

It was a struggle for a couple weeks, and Ford saw himself fall in the standings. He bounced back over the weekend and got back in the win column at the “Battle at Berlin,” one of the track’s biggest races of the season.

The victory was not only special for Ford, who said prior to the race it was one he wanted to win more than any other, it also officially surpassed his win total from last year, which was a goal coming into the summer.

Ford is currently second in the Sportman points at Berlin, 76 points behind leader Brian Thome.

He’s fourth in the NASCAR Advance Auto Parts Weekly Series Division III standings, 24 points behind the leader.

“It is much, much closer than it was last year,” Ford said of the Berlin points. “I think we picked up a couple extra competitive cars for this season so far. It’s been a little more work all year, actually. We actually made the car faster this winter and struggled more out of the gate than we did last year with a faster car than what we finished the season with. That was tough to realize right away that we were going to be fighting tougher competition than last year. Trying to repeat as champions was definitely going to be difficult.”

He’s still holding out hope for another Berlin title, and he wants to work to continue climbing the national standings.​

More importantly, the rest of the year is about continuing to have fun behind the wheel of an actual car.

“It’s definitely more fun to race the real car,” he said. “A lot more adrenaline involved. It’s a lot more fun to actually do it. Real racing comes with a lot more stress than sim racing, too. You have to keep the car up to shape, you’re worrying about a season-long points battles. You’re worried about sponsors that you’re trying to keep happy and run well for them. There’s a lot more stress off the track… but when it actually comes to green flag, I’d rather be in a real car all day long.”

Only two races remain in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series regular season. This Sunday, three playoff spots are still up for grabs when the green flag drops for the Go Bowling at The Glen (3 p.m. ET, USA, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

With the wild card of Daytona looming next weekend, Watkins Glen serves as the next-to-last opportunity for drivers on the bubble to control their destiny. Take a look at drivers just above and below the postseason elimination line before the action kicks off in upstate New York.

RELATED: Cup standings | Clinching scenarios at Watkins Glen

✅ DRIVERS ABOVE ELIMINATION LINE

KEVIN HARVICK

Points above: 145

Trending: Indianapolis Road Course Snapped Hot Streak

Watkins Glen outlook — Mostly Warm: Watkins Glen is arguably Harvick’s best road course. Barring a new winner on Sunday, he will make the playoffs on points but what gets real dicey for the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing team is that only two points separate Harvick and Brad Keselowski. If two new winners emerge at Watkins Glen and Daytona, then the 16th and final playoff spot will come to down to a points duel on the superspeedway. 

BRAD KESELOWSKI

Points above: 143

Trending: Hit or Miss

Watkins Glen outlook — Mostly Cold: Despite being well over 100 points above the elimination line, Keselowski still has work to do to lock himself into the postseason. If he doesn’t win on Sunday and a first-time 2023 winners emerge in the last two races, Keselowski will need to jump Harvick in points to clinch a spot. Recently, the RFK Racing co-owner hasn’t been great on the New York road course with four finishes of 15th or worse in the last five races. 

BUBBA WALLACE

Points above: 28

Trending: Cold

Watkins Glen outlook — Cold: McDowell’s win last weekend put Wallace in a bind, and he’ll likely need his best performance at a road course in his career on Sunday to keep a healthy margin above the elimination line. Unfortunately for Wallace, he’s never finished better than 23rd in four career starts at The Glen.

☣️ ON THE BUBBLE 

DANIEL SUÁREZ

Points below: 28

Trending: Warming Up

Watkins Glen outlook — Hit or Miss: A pit-road blunder last Sunday cost the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing team a better chance at the win at Indy, but Suárez will be among the favorites as well at Watkins Glen. He finished fifth in last year’s race. 

TY GIBBS

Points below: 49

Trending: OK

Watkins Glen outlook — Cold Start: Gibbs recovered to log a 12th-place finish at Indy after being spun by Shane van Gisbergen early in the race. However, that incident cost him valuable stage points, and the rookie likely needs a win to clinch a playoff spot. He only has one Cup start at Watkins Glen where he finished 26th (2022). 

🚩 MUST-WIN SITUATION

CHASE ELLIOTT

Points below: 80

Trending: Hit or Miss

Watkins Glen outlook — Red Hot: Elliott had his best run of 2023 last weekend at Indy but it wasn’t enough for a win. Now, only a victory will get him into the playoffs and Watkins Glen could be his golden ticket. He owns two career wins at the road course, including his first career Cup Series win in 2018. He’s also on a four consecutive race streak of top-four finishes. 

MORE: NASCAR’s all-time winners on road courses

ALEX BOWMAN

Points below: 80

Trending: Indianapolis Road Course Snapped Cold Streak

Watkins Glen outlook — Cold: Bowman scored his first top-10 finish at Indy since returning from injury. But a win is the only way the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team makes the postseason, and Bowman has yet to score a top-10 finish or lead a lap at Watkins Glen in six starts. 

AJ ALLMENDINGER

Points below: 87

Trending: Cold

Watkins Glen outlook — Mostly Warm: If anyone can flip the playoff picture on Sunday, it’s Allmendinger. His first career Cup win came at Watkins Glen in 2014 and he’s scored seven top 10s in the last nine starts at the track, including a runner-up result last year. 

AUSTIN CINDRIC

Points below: 105

Trending: Cold

Watkins Glen outlook — OK Start: While Cindric has a decorated background in road-course racing, it has yet to develop in the Cup Series. He finished 13th at Watkins Glen in his rookie season last year.

Michael McDowell’s breakthrough win last week at the Indianapolis Road Course locked the Front Row Motorsports driver and the No. 34 team into the postseason field and helped make the scenarios for Watkins Glen this week a little more clear.

For Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski, who sit in the provisional postseason grid but without a win, a victory by either locks both drivers into the postseason. If a driver already in the playoffs wins, both veterans would also lock in. But if a driver below the elimination line is victorious? Buckle up for Daytona.

With two races remaining in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, 13 playoff spots are locked up. Those 13 drivers are Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Michael McDowell and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

With the series heading to Watkins Glen for the penultimate regular-season race, here’s a look at the playoff-clinching scenarios.

Can clinch via points

If there is a repeat winner or a win by a driver who cannot advance to the playoffs, the following drivers could clinch by being 56 points above the third winless driver in the standings. The same point requirements listed below would hold true if a new win comes from Kevin Harvick or Brad Keselowski.

Kevin Harvick: Would clinch regardless of finish
Brad Keselowski: Would clinch regardless of finish

If there is a new winner from Bubba Wallace or another winless driver lower in the standings but still eligible to advance to the playoffs, the following drivers could clinch by being 56 points above the second winless driver in the standings.

Kevin Harvick: Could only clinch with help

Can clinch via win

The following drivers would clinch on their win alone:

The following drivers would clinch on their win alone: Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Bubba Wallace, Daniel Suárez, Ty Gibbs, Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, AJ Allmendinger, Austin Cindric, Justin Haley, Aric Almirola, Ryan Preece, Corey LaJoie, Todd Gilliland, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, Harrison Burton, Chase Briscoe and Ty Dillon.

Can clinch Regular-Season Championship

The Regular-Season Championship could be clinched by the following drivers:

Martin Truex Jr.: Would clinch with 56 points

NASCAR XFINITY SERIES

More spots are up for grabs in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, which still has four regular-season races remaining and eight available playoff spots. Here’s an extensive look ahead of the series’ road-course race at Watkins Glen.

The following four drivers have clinched a spot in the 12-driver postseason field: Austin Hill, John Hunter Nemechek, Justin Allgaier and Cole Custer.

Can clinch via previous wins

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Austin Hill, John Hunter Nemechek, Justin Allgaier, Cole Custer, Josh Berry, Sam Mayer, Chandler Smith, Sammy Smith and Jeb Burton:
Sam Mayer: Would clinch regardless of finish
Chandler Smith: Would clinch regardless of finish
Sammy Smith: Would clinch regardless of finish
Jeb Burton: Would clinch regardless of finish

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Daniel Hemric, Riley Herbst, Sheldon Creed, Parker Kligerman or Brandon Jones:
Sam Mayer: Could only clinch with help
Chandler Smith: Could only clinch with help

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Brett Moffitt:
Sam Mayer: Would clinch with 37 points
Chandler Smith: Could only clinch with help

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Kaz Grala:
Sam Mayer: Would clinch regardless of finish
Chandler Smith: Would clinch with 39 points

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Parker Retzlaff:
Sam Mayer: Would clinch regardless of finish
Chandler Smith: Would clinch with 19 points

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Ryan Sieg:
Sam Mayer: Would clinch regardless of finish
Chandler Smith: Would clinch with 3 points
Sammy Smith: Could only clinch with help

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Jeremy Clements:
Sam Mayer: Would clinch regardless of finish
Chandler Smith: Would clinch regardless of finish
Sammy Smith: Would clinch with 33 points

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Josh Williams:
Sam Mayer: Would clinch regardless of finish
Chandler Smith: Would clinch regardless of finish
Sammy Smith: Would clinch regardless of finish
Jeb Burton: Would clinch with 5 points

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Anthony Alfredo:
Sam Mayer: Would clinch regardless of finish
Chandler Smith: Would clinch regardless of finish
Sammy Smith: Would clinch regardless of finish
Jeb Burton: Would clinch with 3 points

The following drivers could clinch on previous wins with a win by Joe Graf Jr. or Brennan Poole:
Sam Mayer: Would clinch regardless of finish
Chandler Smith: Would clinch regardless of finish
Sammy Smith: Would clinch regardless of finish
Jeb Burton: Would clinch regardless of finish

Can clinch via win

The following drivers would clinch on their win alone:
Josh Berry, Sam Mayer, Chandler Smith, Sammy Smith and Jeb Burton

The following drivers could clinch with a win:
Daniel Hemric: Could only clinch with help

Although a lengthy pit stop at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course withheld Daniel Suárez from a pivotal win, there should still be plenty of optimism within the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing camp heading into the final two regular-season races.

WATCH: Suárez discusses ‘heartbreaking’ finish at Indy

While the pit stop incident in question might be four days in the rearview mirror, the error still resonates. After being a steady front-runner during the opening portion of the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard, Suárez brought his Chevrolet to pit row on the 48th circuit of a scheduled 82-lap contest. An air hose tangle with the left-front tire, however, created a 10-second gap behind Michael McDowell, and while Suárez was able to dig out of the deficit by close to half by the race’s end, it was not enough to overtake the No. 34, which eventually took home the hardware and clinched a coveted spot in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

A slow stop might suggest a disturbing trend, but a glimpse at the data suggests the misfire might be an anomaly instead of a new norm. Headlined by front-tire changer Josh Bush, rear-tire changer Jerick Newsome, tire carrier Jeremy Kimbrough, jackman Josh Appleby and fueler Milan Rudanovic, the No. 99 has delivered the fastest four-tire pit stop in five races this season (Auto Club, Talladega, New Hampshire, Richmond-2 and Michigan). And while the miscue might have weakened his average four-tire time compared to two weeks prior, the team remains the eighth-best in that department.

MORE: Playoff Watch | 2023 Cup Series standings

Despite the unfortunate circumstances, a third-place result wasn’t an entire loss. A still-strong points day means Suárez is only 28 points below the 16-driver postseason grid. But make no mistake: No matter how nice points are, Suárez is still hungry for a victory, and with another road course on the docket — this time at Watkins Glen International — an opportunity to lean on a fast No. 99 machine and a still-efficient pit crew could very well be the difference-maker to seizing the win and clinching a playoff berth this time around.

See below to analyze additional pit-road statistics through Indianapolis and before Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

TEN FASTEST FOUR-TIRE PIT STOPS IN 2023

RankTrackDriverTime
1SonomaKyle Busch9.185 seconds
2Richmond-2Daniel Suárez9.260 seconds
3Richmond-2Ty Gibbs9.276 seconds
4NashvilleKyle Larson9.281 seconds
5SonomaAustin Cindric9.301 seconds
6Richmond-1Corey LaJoie 9.309 seconds
7NashvilleDaniel Suárez9.333 seconds
8Richmond-2Ty Gibbs9.343 seconds
9CharlotteWilliam Byron 9.383 seconds
10Richmond-2Denny Hamlin9.408 seconds

BEST AVERAGE FOUR-TIRE PIT STOP TIMES IN 2023

Two races remain in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, and Watkins Glen International may be the final track where drivers can control their own fate before returning to the unknowns that await in the postseason preamble at Daytona.

Before cars hit the track this weekend for Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), check out trends to watch, important info on Goodyear tires and interactive ways to follow all the action.

RELATED: See paint schemes for Watkins Glen | Betting favorites for Sunday’s Cup race

CHASE ELLIOTT’S LAST CHANCE? 

After Michael McDowell’s win at Indianapolis last weekend, the 2020 Cup Series champion currently sits 80 points below the playoff cutline and needs a win to compete for the title this year.

Elliott has proven to be one of the best road-course racers in the Cup Series, and Watkins Glen is where he scored his first career Cup Series win in 2018. Since then, the 27-year-old scored six more wins on left- and right-turn circuits to land third on the all-time road-course winners list.

Destiny is in Elliott’s control this weekend, and if he doesn’t score the victory on Sunday, it’s off to Daytona, where he will need to hit a walk-off.

MORE: How the playoff picture looks heading into Sunday

📉 TRENDS TO WATCH 📈

— Hendrick Motorsports won the last four races at Watkins Glen; before 2018, the team had not won at the track since 2001.

— Twelve lead changes at Watkins Glen in 2022 was the most in the last 10 races.

— All four road-course races in 2023 were won by different drivers from different organizations.

(Via Racing Insights)

NOTABLE MOMENTS 🎥

2012: Brad Keselowski, Marcos Ambrose’s epic final-lap battle for the win | WATCH

2014: AJ Allmendinger holds off Ambrose for first Cup victory  | WATCH

2018: Chase Elliott holds off Martin Truex Jr. for first Cup victory | WATCH

ON-TRACK SCHEDULE 🗓️

Saturday, Aug. 19

— 12:30 p.m. ET: Practice (USA, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App)

— 1:30 p.m. ET: Qualifying (USA, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App)

Sunday, Aug. 20

— 3 p.m. ET: Go Bowling at The Glen (USA, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App)

MORE: Full weekend schedule at Watkins Glen

RULE CHANGES/GOODYEAR TIRE NOTES 🛞

The GEICO Restart Zone returned to its 2022 dimensions after being extended for this season’s first five races.

Goodyear will bring the same tire setup that has been used on all road courses this season. Cup teams will be issued one set for practice, one set for qualifying and an additional five sets for Sunday’s race.

Wet-weather tires will also be available this weekend in the event of rainfall.

NASCAR implemented safety updates to the Next Gen car.

Along the right-side door bars and extending toward the rear clip, teams are mandated to run a steel plate in addition to the chassis adjustments made for the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The right-side door bar gussets and the removal of the front clip V-brace are changes that remain, in addition to the removal of other front-clip components, to create a softer and larger crush zone for frontal impacts.

Also included in the updates are front bumper strut softening (modifications to existing parts), the requirement of an empty front ballast box and a modified cross brace. NASCAR incurs the cost of all these updates.

In the event of a lost wheel that is contained to pit road, the offending team will be subject to a pass-through penalty under green-flag conditions. If the infraction occurs during a caution period, the offending team will restart at the tail end of the field.

If the wheel breaks free outside of pit road, the new rules guidelines mandate a two-lap penalty plus a two-race suspension for two crew members. Each penalty is series-specific: Violations in one series will not impact those crew members’ eligibility to participate in other series.

RELATED: See rules changes for 2023

FAN REWARDS 🫵

Fans can get in on the action all season long with NASCAR Fan Rewards, a free program that rewards fans for participating in the action when they watch races and play NASCAR Fantasy.

There’s no cost to join. Fans must be 18 years or older to participate in the program.

Earn points by checking into a race from home or at the track, setting your Fantasy Live lineup, making purchases on the NASCAR.com shop and more. Points can be redeemed for race tickets, merchandise and VIP experiences at the track, including pace car rides and waving the green flag at qualifying.

JOIN TODAY

FOLLOW THE RACE 📲

NASCAR Mobile has now added support for fans to “Follow the Race” and access live leaderboard and race information from Live Activities in the current app release (v13.2.0), available now. Android users, we didn’t forget you — the same functionality has been custom-built for Android devices, as well.

How to access Live Activities on iPhones:

  1. Make sure your iOS device has been updated to 16.1 or higher.
  2. Available on the leaderboard of all NASCAR Series races.
  3. Click on the three-dot menu near the top right of screen.
  4. Select “Follow the Race.”
  5. Swipe up to access the home screen and you will see the Live Activities at the top.
  6. Lock the device and you will see Live Activities on the Lock Screen.
  7. To turn off, simply visit the leaderboard, click the three-dot menu and “Unfollow the Race.”

FANTASY LIVE 🏆

Want to manage a team and race your way to the top of the leaderboards? Check out NASCAR Fantasy Live, which is open now. The free-to-play game lets you choose your drivers each week and show off your crew-chief instincts by garaging a driver by the end of Stage 2, and there is a $25,000 prize for the winner.

How to play: Fantasy Live | Set up a team today!

ALSO ON NASCAR.COM 💻

Get additional camera views by logging on to NASCAR Drive, where each week a select number of in-car cameras will be available — as well as a battle cam and an overhead look.

NASCAR has partnered with LiveLike to add fan engagement to the NASCAR Mobile App. Log in to the mobile app during the race for polls, quizzes, the cheer meter and more — and see instant results from NASCAR fans like you.