See the full starting lineup for tonight’s Craftsman Truck Series race at Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park (8 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One, NRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Series points leader Layne Riggs will lead the field to green.
SPEEDWAY, Ind. — As Alex Bowman begins to plan for life after NASCAR, Hendrick Motorsports must begin preparing for life after Alex Bowman in its No. 48 Chevrolet.
Bowman will step away from full-time Cup Series competition after the 2027 season, he and the team announced Thursday, bringing the eight-time winner back for next year’s campaign on a one-year contract extension.
His impending departure means a rare, coveted opening at NASCAR’s winningest organization, backed by Hendrick Motorsports’ 15 NASCAR Cup Series championships and 322 race victories.
The immediate focus lies upon Bowman himself, who emphasized in a Friday press conference at Indianapolis Motor Speedway that retiring within this time frame was always part of his long-term plan. Bowman, 33, has missed parts of three seasons in the past five years, including a four-race absence this spring due to vertigo. The physical toll of those injuries is not driving his decision to step away, Bowman said, but it is reinforcing that the time is right.
“I think with what went on in March, I feel like in my head, I had looked at this year being it quite a bit and talked about that,” Bowman said. “But yeah, just trying to make the best decision for me and obviously the best decision for Hendrick Motorsports. I think I really want to end on a more positive note than how this year’s been, so that gave me a little more motivation to come back and go one more year.”
Bowman’s commitment to drive for another full season allows Hendrick Motorsports to find its next potential star at a company with a history of high achievers: seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson; four-time champ Jeff Gordon; two-time Daytona 500 winner Dale Earnhardt Jr.; defending and two-time champion Kyle Larson. The next year and a half remains Bowman’s to write, but team president and general manager Jeff Andrews will be one of the major players responsible for signing that team’s next driver.
“We’re fortunate enough that we don’t go through this all that often at Hendrick Motorsports,” Andrews said Friday. “And when these cycles do happen, obviously there’s a process there of looking for someone for the right fit, not only from a performance standpoint, but for our company and our culture. And so again today, as you mentioned, is about Alex and the near future will be about Alex and his story, and we’ll begin that process on what’s next for the 48 team in 2028 very soon.”
Zach Sturniolo | NASCAR Digital Media
More time in the bank with Bowman behind the wheel allows more opportunities for young prospects around the sport to develop before landing in one of the most desirable seats in motorsports.
Connor Zilisch, a rookie at Trackhouse Racing, has quickly garnered the most attention as a possible replacement at Hendrick Motorsports when Bowman departs. One source confirmed Hendrick is one of many teams in the garage that have taken an interest in Zilisch despite his rookie-year struggles. Zilisch’s time in the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series was spent at JR Motorsports, a Hendrick-affiliated program, establishing an early relationship within the Chevrolet powerhouse.
Zilisch has had a miserable stretch of races at the Cup level, finishing outside the top 30 in five of the last eight races. But his talent and potential are well established, evidenced by a 10-win slate in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series one year ago and a rousing resume to accompany the stats. With more time to flourish in the Cup Series — perhaps bolstered by the upcoming slate of full 50-minute practice sessions — Zilisch could develop into Hendrick’s next long-term driver.
Another prime prospect is Corey Day, who currently drives for Hendrick Motorsports in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series. Day has won at both Talladega Superspeedway and Dover Motor Speedway this season and has quickly grown into a legitimate contender as a stock-car racer, adapting to the craft after years spent in the dirt-racing scene. Through 21 starts this year, Day sits fourth in the standings with six top fives and 14 top 10s to his credit and just three races remaining in the regular season. Day’s development has come under Hendrick’s watchful eye and would therefore be a likely contender for the No. 48 seat in 2028 if progress continues.
The phone has already begun ringing at Hendrick Motorsports as drivers and agents around the garage recognize the rare opportunity that has presented itself for the 2028 season. Until then, Alex Bowman will be able to write his final chapter in his own words, using the next year and a half to potentially leave on a high note.
SPEEDWAY, Ind. — Tyler Reddick couldn’t have scripted a much better start to the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season. But after making history by becoming the first driver in the 78-year history of the series to win the opening three races of a single season, the five-time 2026 winner has stumbled through a six-race skid, turning a dominant campaign into one filled with questions.
“You want to be in the right place, going in the right direction as you start The Chase,” Reddick said on Friday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, moments after concluding a frustrating practice session that still was good enough for eighth on single-lap speed. “We really need to get out of whatever hole we’ve found ourselves in.”
No driver over the last 39 seasons enjoyed a better start than Tyler Reddick’s opening 14 races in 2026. His 5.6 average finish, highlighted by nine top-five finishes, was the best through the first 14 races of a season since Dale Earnhardt posted a 4.8 average in 1987. That blistering run produced an average of 44.6 points per race through the opening 15 events.
The last six races have told a much different story. Reddick has averaged just 17.5 points per race during that span, watching a commanding 129-point lead atop the regular-season standings disappear. He now trails Denny Hamlin by 68 points in the battle for the No. 1 seed for The Chase.
The sheer pace of Reddick’s No. 45 Toyota hasn’t been nearly as dominant over the last seven races as it was during the opening 14 events. Misfortune has also played a major role. Reddick was an innocent victim in a restart stack-up at Michigan International Speedway, suffered a downed tire while battling for the victory at Naval Base Coronado and endured mechanical issues at both Sonoma Raceway and Chicagoland Speedway. Last weekend at North Wilkesboro Speedway, Reddick was collected in an incident with Alex Bowman while the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet entered pit road.
“It has been a little bit of hit or miss at times,” Reddick said of the No. 45’s pace. “We just have to figure it out.”
It hasn’t all been doom and gloom for the No. 45 team, but the recent stretch has been far from ideal. Reddick believes there is still time to track the No. 11 car down for the top Chase spot.
“If we run like we did the first 14 races of the season, absolutely,” Reddick said. “We’ve been going the wrong way for a while, and some of it is just racing. A couple of times we haven’t had the speed that we’ve come to expect out of ourselves. A little bit of both, but a lot of it has been crazy circumstances.
“It’s not over until The Chase starts. We will just keep fighting as hard as we can and not settle for days like today.”
Friday’s practice session wasn’t ideal for Reddick. He clocked in eighth on single-lap speed — Toyota owned the top five between Joe Gibbs Racing and Legacy Motor Club — but fought an ill-handling machine. It was out in left field so much that he even joked with his crew chief, Billy Scott, that it felt like he had never visited the famed 2.5-mile speedway before.
“The last few years we’ve come here and felt good about what we had and knew where we needed to go from practice into qualifying,” Reddick said. “Today, I felt like I had never raced here before. Just lost. Struggling to find speed, struggling with the balance of the car. It was like I never raced here before.”
Spirits remain high, however. 23XI Racing enters Sunday’s Brickyard 400 as the defending winner with Bubba Wallace scoring his most recent checkered flag. Reddick was in the mix throughout the race, placing fourth in the opening stage but wrecked out in overtime.
Reddick intends to spend the rest of Friday debriefing with 23XI and revisiting past setups from Indianapolis over the prior two seasons.
“Yes, Bubba won and had a successful weekend, but we felt good about our car too,” Reddick said. “Whether it’s his race, our first 30 to 40 laps of last year’s race, we have some good stuff to go through.”
Christopher Bell set the pace in NASCAR Cup Series practice, leading a Toyota sweep of the top five in Friday afternoon’s session at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Bell’s No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota posted a best lap of 183.512 mph in the first on-track activity ahead of Sunday’s Brickyard 400 (2 p.m. ET, TNT Sports, truTV, HBO Max, IMS Radio Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at the 2.5-mile oval.
John Hunter Nemechek was second-fastest in the No. 42 Legacy Motor Club Toyota, clocking in at 183.180 mph. Ty Gibbs ranked third in practice, with Erik Jones and Cup Series points leader Denny Hamlin completing the top five in that order.
A handful of drivers encountered trouble early on in the 50-minute session. Defending Brickyard 400 winner Bubba Wallace was the first to find a snag with a scrape of the outside retaining wall in Turn 1. He took his No. 23 Toyota to the garage, where his 23XI Racing crew went to work on the car’s right-side damage. Wallace was back on track with 20 minutes to go in practice, recording the 20th-fastest lap overall.
Ryan Preece’s No. 60 RFK Racing Ford also slowed when his left-rear tire went down with 22 minutes left in practice.
The Cup Series returns to the track for Busch Light Pole Qualifying on Saturday (1:30 p.m. ET, truTV, HBO Max, IMS Radio Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Editor’s Note: Keep tabs on this page for lineup advice following qualifying, including changes you should consider.
Fantasy Update: The start of the Brickyard 400 weekend has been a tale of two tapes. Toyota dominated practice, sweeping the top five in single-lap speed. Spire Motorsports swept the front row in qualifying, however, with six Chevrolets starting inside the top 10. Busch Light Pole Award winner Carson Hocevar has been added to my lineup, though I am fully aware that the weather is slated to be significantly warmer come race day. Strategy will be aplenty during the race, making Indianapolis a tough fantasy call. Track position is of the utmost importance, so I’ve added Ty Gibbs to my lineup as well. Bubba Wallace and Austin Cindric, both starting deep in the field, have been dropped.
Garage: Christopher Bell.
Few sporting venues in the world have the prestige of Indianapolis Motor Speedway. And the best drivers usually come out to play, with the Brickyard winner going on to win the Cup Series championship in the same season nine times in 29 editions. Denny Hamlin can complete the Crown Jewel Grand Slam, while Tyler Reddick aims to join an exclusive Daytona 500/Brickyard 400 club. Toyota leads the way, but track position keeps the field wide open.
Returning to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick,where you can come play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced in 2024 where strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2026 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.
Driver: Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota Selections remaining: 6 Comment: Arguably, Indianapolis is Wallace’s best circuit on the schedule, dating back to his formative years with Richard Petty Motorsports (now Legacy Motor Club), when he finished third in 2019. Wallace has top 10s in the last four races on the Indianapolis oval, posting an 11.2 average finish in five attempts overall, his best at any venue with multiple starts.
Driver:Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota Selections remaining: 3 Comment: Given the layout of Indianapolis and how dominant Toyota has been at high-speed venues in 2026, Bell should be in the mix this weekend. He has a pair of top 10s in three oval starts, never finishing worse than 12th. His 8.0 average finish here is his best at any active oval with multiple attempts.
Driver: Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet Selections remaining:3 Comment: While Toyota will be the favorite, Larson could give them a run for their money. The No. 5 bunch has finished inside the top two in both races since the famed 2.5-mile oval returned to the Cup schedule in 2024, winning the 2024 race while driving through the field.
Justin Casterline | Getty Images
DRIVERS TO AVOID
Driver: William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet Selections remaining: 5 Comment: The No. 24 car has celebrated in the historic IMS Victory Lane a record five times with Jeff Gordon. However, the venue has been a hindrance for Byron, with an average finish of 20.8 in five starts, his worst among non-drafting ovals. Byron’s fourth-place finish in 2019 is his lone top-15 effort.
Driver: Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet Selections remaining: 10 Comment: The No. 48 team for Hendrick has kissed the bricks with Jimmie Johnson on four occasions. However, this is undoubtedly Bowman’s worst track, with an average finish of 29.6 in seven starts (five finishes of 30th or worse). He finished ninth last year, though, his only outcome better than 21st.
Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Digital Media
SLEEPERS OF THE WEEK
Driver:Austin Cindric, Team Penske, No. 2 Ford Selections remaining: 7 Comment: No race is more important to Team Penske than the Brickyard 400 as Roger Penske owns the famed speedway. Cindric could be a sneaky play this weekend, as he led a race-high 40 laps in last year’s event. The sample size is small, but his 11.0 average finish is tied with World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway for his best among active tracks.
Driver:Todd Gilliland, Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford Selections remaining: 9 Comment: So you’re saying there’s a chance? Gilliland mustfinish ahead of Ryan Blaney this weekend to snag the $1 million prize for the In-Season Challenge, as he’s playing the role of the Butler Bulldogs vs. the Duke Blue Devils in the 2010 NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship. Gilliland has a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset, finishing sixth in his only two starts at the Indianapolis oval.
James Gilbert | Getty Images
FEATURED MATCHUPS
Todd Gilliland vs. Ryan Blaney Pick: Blaney Comment: Regardless of who wins, a Ford driver will bank the $1 million prize in a season where the manufacturer has three victories in the opening 21 races. Blaney has two of them and, prior to Logano’s win last week, had accounted for Ford’s previous six Cup Series victories. The 2023 Cup champion is the heavy favorite entering the weekend, with three top 10s in eight Indy starts, including a third-place finish in 2024.
Bubba Wallace vs. Christopher Bell Pick: Wallace Comment: Their respective histories at Indianapolis suggest both drivers should contend near the front of the pack. Bell has been plagued by near-misses throughout the 2026 season, while Wallace’s results haven’t always reflected his speed. Still, Wallace has consistently shown race-winning pace at the Brickyard and returns with added confidence as the defending race winner.
Joey Logano vs. Chase Briscoe Pick: Briscoe Comment: Logano’s 32nd-place finish in last year’s Brickyard 400 is misleading, as the No. 22 car was in contention to win before cutting a tire late in the going. With eight top 10s in 14 starts, expect him to be a factor again. But don’t overlook Briscoe, as the native Hoosier should be a threat at his home track driving an almighty Toyota.
Brad Keselowski vs. Carson Hocevar Pick: Keselowski Comment: Truthfully, there isn’t much confidence in this pick, as Keselowski’s seventh-place result at North Wilkesboro was his first top 10 in three months. Hocevar has been consistent in limited attempts at Indianapolis, with finishes of 10th and 12th. Experience wins out, though, as Keselowski, the 2018 Brickyard winner, has four top fives in the last six races here.
Pick: Todd Gilliland, Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford Comment: No track has treated Gilliland better on the Cup schedule – oval or road course – than Indianapolis. Sure, you could save the No. 34 team for a superspeedway, but he has been a top-10 threat in both of his IMS oval starts and could walk away from the “Yard of Bricks” with heavy pockets.
Alex Bowman will retire from full-time NASCAR Cup Series competition following the 2027 season after signing a one-year contract extension, Hendrick Motorsports announced Thursday.
Bowman, an eight-time Cup Series winner, has competed full-time for Hendrick Motorsports since 2018 and currently drives the team’s No. 48 Chevrolet. The 33-year-old Tucson, Arizona, native missed four races earlier this season due to vertigo and sits 29th in points with three top fives and four top 10s in 17 starts this season.
His departure will come at the conclusion of his 12th full season of Cup Series competition, a venture highlighted by a four-win season in 2021.
“Alex has meant so much to our organization for a long time,” Rick Hendrick, owner of Hendrick Motorsports, said in a team press release. “He’s overcome adversity, won big races and represented our team and partners with professionalism, personality and class. Alex is a tremendous talent in the race car and an even better person outside of it. We’re proud he’ll have the opportunity to finish his full-time career with us on his terms. He’s family.”
Bowman’s tenure marked the culmination of a successful rise from underfunded upstart teams to one of the sport’s premier organizations. He first joined Hendrick Motorsports in 2016, substituting for an injured Dale Earnhardt Jr. and sharing driving duties with Jeff Gordon. Bowman parlayed the part-time role into a full-time gig starting in 2018, driving the No. 88 car until seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson retired after 2020, when Bowman moved into the No. 48 Chevy.
Bowman won at least once each season from 2019 through 2022, earning a career-best points finish of sixth in 2020 before winning four races the next year.
“I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about what’s next, and this feels like the right decision at the right time,” Bowman said. “The sport asks a lot of you, and I’ve learned it’s important to listen to your body and make the right choices for yourself. To say I’m incredibly grateful to Mr. Hendrick, our partners at Ally and Chevrolet, and everyone at Hendrick Motorsports would be an understatement. They believed in me and gave me the biggest opportunity of my life.
“My focus now is on making the most of my time on the race track and competing for wins. We still have a lot to accomplish, and I want to close my career on a high note for our team and our fans. To have the chance to do that with this organization and these people is really special.”
Injuries led to missed time behind the wheel over the last few years. Concussion-like symptoms sidelined Bowman from the car for five races in 2022. The next spring, Bowman was leading the Cup Series standings before a sprint car crash left him with a broken vertebra and forced him to miss three races in 2023. Bowman returned to Victory Lane in 2024, scoring his most recent win at the Chicago Street Course.
Bowman’s 2026 campaign has not gone to plan, ranking 29th in points after 21 races with three top fives and four top 10s. His 21.8 average finishing position is on track to be his poorest since 2015, when he competed for Tommy Baldwin Racing.
Drivers outside the top 12 in the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series have three more chances to muscle their way into the postseason Chase, with the first opportunity coming in Saturday’s Pennzoil 250 presented by Take 5 Oil Change at Indianapolis Motor Speedway (4 p.m. ET, The CW, IMS Radio Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Brent Crews and Taylor Gray currently occupy the 11th and 12th positions in the standings, but 13th-place Rajah Caruth is only 17 points behind Gray and 18 behind Crews with Indianapolis, Iowa Speedway and Daytona International Speedway left on the regular-season schedule.
Another Gibbs teammate, William Sawalich, trails Gray by just 21 points.
The race to the postseason aside, there’s one truism about the Indianapolis oval that has been consistent in each of the past 10 O’Reilly Series races there: speed in qualifying translates into performance in the event itself.
In 2012, Brad Keselowski won from the eighth starting position. Last year, Connor Zilisch won from seventh on the grid. In between, all eight winners came from the top three starting positions, four from the pole.
Justin Allgaier is the only former Brickyard winner in the field for Saturday’s race, having triumphed at the track in 2018. With six victories this season, the driver of the No. 7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet already has clinched the top seed in the Chase, but Indy remains a significant venue for the Riverton, Illinois, native.
“Indianapolis is such a special track,” said Allgaier, who had contemplated retirement after the current season but recently signed an extension with JRM. “With the history that comes with being here, it’s always been a place that we circle on the calendar.
“We came close here last year (leading 37 laps before a late crash), and there’s nothing I would love more than another opportunity to kiss the bricks come Saturday afternoon.”
Allgaier will have plenty of competition within his own team. Full-time NASCAR Cup Series drivers Ross Chastain and Chase Elliott both are driving JRM cars.
In 34 aggregate starts on the Indianapolis oval, beginning in 2012, JR Motorsports has recorded three wins, 11 top fives, 19 top 10s and an average finish of 14.1.
A single top 10 for JRM on Saturday would constitute a significant milestone. The organization has placed at least one car in the top 10 for 78 consecutive races, one short of the 79-race record set by Roush Fenway Racing from 2008-2010.
The race for the final spot in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series’ postseason Chase couldn’t be tighter — literally.
Stewart Friesen and Tyler Ankrum are tied for the final berth, with Friesen holding the tiebreaker, but the determining factor over the next three races will be performance on tracks of one mile in length or shorter.
The Truck Series heads to Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park for Friday night’s TSport 200 presented by Warn Industries (8 p.m. ET, FS1, NRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Recently, the 0.686-mile oval has been the province of series leader and defending winner Layne Riggs and two-time winner Ty Majeski (2023-2024).
But Friesen and Ankrum will stage their own show as they battle for a berth in the postseason. Ankrum lost ground with consecutive finishes of 31st on the Naval Base Coronado Street Course, 25th at Lime Rock Park and 19th last Saturday at North Wilkesboro.
“It has been tough the last couple weeks, to say the least, but we are not focusing on the negatives and only throwing forward the positives,” Ankrum said. “This No. 18 (McAnally-Hilgemann Racing) team has put in so much work at the shop and at the track to give us what we need to stay in contention in these races, and I’m extremely confident our day will come soon.
“We’re in rough shape with just three races remaining before The Chase, but if we can just knock out a few solid points races here in the next month, we will be good to go.”
Riggs, on the other hand, is in excellent shape entering a race he won last year. His second-place run at North Wilkesboro bumped his lead in the standings over second-place Kaden Honeycutt to 59 points.
Majeski is sixth in the standings, 67 points behind fifth-place Gio Ruggiero, but the 2024 series champion will look to make a significant move over the next three races — on his three best oval tracks by average finish: IRP, 3.75 in four starts; Richmond Raceway, 2.0 in four starts and New Hampshire Motor Speedway, fifth in his only start.
The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series will return to St. Petersburg, Florida, next season, revisiting the temporary street circuit in 2027 after a successful debut this year.
The event is scheduled Saturday, March 6, sharing the bill with the NTT IndyCar Series’ Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 7. The race weekend, announced Thursday morning by Green Savoree Racing Promotions, marks one of the first pieces of the 2027 NASCAR national-series schedule to take shape.
Truck Series points leader Layne Riggs prevailed in the inaugural OnlyBulls Green Flag 150 at St. Pete on Feb. 28. The event marked the tour’s first event on a street circuit, and Riggs expressed optimism for the return after his victory — then his first on a road course.
“It is an amazing place to come and I don’t know why we couldn’t come back next year,” Riggs said, noting the festival atmosphere of the 1.8-mile marina circuit. “… I couldn’t believe how packed the grandstands were and I thought it was one of the best road-course races the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series has ever seen.”
Promoters indicated ticket sales would begin in the fall. The rest of the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series schedule will be announced at a later date.
“The 2026 event was our best yet,” said Kim Green, co-owner and chairman/CEO of Green Savoree. “Spectator attendance was tremendous on all three days to witness history made with the NASCAR Trucks racing for the first time on a street circuit and IndyCar kicking off its season once again. We look forward to having both of these series back together on track for our fans to enjoy at the 23rd annual Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg weekend.”
Because of how spectacularly dominant Shane van Gisbergen’s early successes were on road and street courses — literally earning him the title of NASCAR’s road-course GOAT after roughly a dozen starts on the twisty tracks (of which he won half!) — it made his less-stellar results on the ovals stand out more.
From 2023 through 2025, SVG made 12 starts on road courses and 38 everywhere else. In the former, he had six wins, an average finish of 7.6, an Adjusted Points+ index of 279 (meaning his finishing quality was 179% better than Cup average) and a Driver Rating of 121.9. In the latter, his average finish was 25.0, with an Adjusted Points+ of 48 (i.e., 52% worse than average) and an average rating of 50.0, numbers that paled in comparison to his road dominance.
Among modern-era drivers (debuting since 1972), nobody had bigger gaps in their Adjusted Points+ or Driver Rating on road courses versus all other track types through their first 12 career road races — and it wasn’t remotely close:
As great of a race-car driver as SVG is, it seemed like that might forever be his fate — sure, maybe he could at least improve some on non-road courses, but van Gisbergen always seemed destined to be a specialist first and foremost.
But just like when Happy Gilmore learned how to putt, the rest of NASCAR has been put on notice recently by van Gisbergen’s performances on ovals. More than just being less-bad, or even merely achieving competence, SVG has actually been pretty good on the non-road courses this year — and it’s already affecting the big-picture story of the 2026 season.
Following a sixth-place run at EchoPark Speedway (a drafting track) two weeks ago and a fifth-place finish at North Wilkesboro Speedway (a short track) on Sunday, van Gisbergen now has seven finishes of 11th or better on non-road courses in 17 starts, with an average finish of 19.3, and Adjusted Points+ index of 97 — remember, Cup average is 100 — and a Driver Rating of 67.4, just shy of average (70) there as well. In essence, van Gisbergen has gone from being a significantly below-average driver across all ovals to basically a dead-average one, in less than the span of a season.
And he has shown quicker mastery of certain types of ovals. While his numbers at intermediates, though improved, remain below the Cup Series norm — 21.6 average finish, 77 Adjusted Points+, 58.2 rating — he has been comfortably above average at both superspeedway/drafting tracks and short tracks, form he showcased in each of the past two weeks: In all of NASCAR history, it’s incredibly rare to see a good road-racer who struggles on ovals suddenly become decent on them over any extended span of races.
If we once again look at drivers whose careers began after 1972, only three had shown real road-course ability — with at least five starts and an Adjusted Points+ above 100 on twisty tracks — while compiling a genuinely bad record (at least 10 non-road starts and a career Adj. Pts+ below 50) everywhere else, before turning that around with an index of 90 or above over the following 20-race non-road stretch:
Jerry Nadeau (2000-2001): Five previous road starts (116 Pts+), 81 non-road starts (35 Pts+), 128 Pts+ over next 20 non-road starts
Robby Gordon (2001-2002): Seven previous road starts (166 Pts+), 54 non-road starts (33 Pts+), 91 Pts+ over next 20 non-road starts
Shane van Gisbergen (2025-2026): 12 previous road starts (279 Pts+), 35 non-road starts (44 Pts+), 96 Pts+ over next 20 non-road starts
Similarly, SVG is also one of three historical drivers with an above-average Driver Rating on road courses but an abysmal one (less than 50.0) everywhere else who then posted a rating of at least 65.0 over his next 20 non-road races:
Michael McDowell (2023-2024): 39 previous road starts (70.1 Rating), 408 non-road starts (48.1 Rating), 70.0 Rating over next 20 non-road starts
Robby Gordon (2001-2002): Seven previous road starts (92.0 Rating), 52 non-road starts (47.7 Rating), 67.5 Rating over next 20 non-road starts
Shane van Gisbergen (2025-2026): 12 previous road starts (121.9 Rating), 35 non-road starts (48.5 Rating), 67.2 Rating over next 20 non-road starts
The transformation of van Gisbergen from quite-bad to not-bad at ovals has transformed his Chase odds accordingly, as we predicted it would back in mid-May. He currently ranks 14th in the standings with a 54-point cushion over No. 17 Erik Jones, the top driver outside the current cutline. According to my Chase odds forecast model, SVG now has a greater than 90% probability of making the postseason cut — which would be his second playoff trip, but this time without the benefit of a win-and-in reward for his road-course domination.
SVG’s near-assured Chase odds are having a ripple effect on the rest of the bubble picture as well. Because of his recent success, in combination with better days from North Wilkesboro winner Joey Logano — who was also recently sitting on the bubble — there now is only one Chase slot whose favorite is below 90% to make it in: Austin Cindric in 16th place. That means a dogfight is brewing between Cindric and the next few drivers below the current cutline (Jones, Ryan Preece, Brad Keselowski), all fighting over one fewer available spot than it seemed when SVG’s fate was more up in the air.
Van Gisbergen, though, doesn’t have to worry much about that scrap with five races to go in the regular season. NASCAR’s greatest road-course specialist is becoming a more complete racer — and now everyone else has to worry about what his improvement has done to them instead.
As great of a race-car driver as SVG is, it seemed like that might forever be his fate — sure, maybe he could at least improve some on non-road courses, but van Gisbergen always seemed destined to be a specialist first and foremost.
In all of NASCAR history, it’s incredibly rare to see a good road-racer who struggles on ovals suddenly become decent on them over any extended span of races.