Denny Hamlin’s delivery has been delayed, but it could arrive at Phoenix Raceway.
The driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, whose primary sponsor is FedEx, has yet to finish better than 15th so far this season. He placed 37th at Daytona International Speedway, 15th at Auto Club Speedway and 32nd at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It’s only the second time in his career he did not manage a top 10 through the first three races; the other was 2010.
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Hamlin registered a DNF at Daytona and Las Vegas, and two DNFs this soon is a first for him. He crashed out at Daytona after completing just 63 of the 201 laps – unlike the three-time Daytona 500 winner – and had a drivetrain issue at Las Vegas with 55 laps remaining. Las Vegas was also unfortunate for Hamlin because he had led 31 laps – currently his only time out front.
Out of the six completed stages, Hamlin has worked his way into the top 10 three times. Given his front-running at Las Vegas, it’s no surprise two of those occurred there – fourth in Stage 1 and ninth in Stage 2. And given how he wrecked out before the first stage even wrapped at Daytona, it’s easy to conclude the third effort was at Auto Club – 10th in Stage 2.
Those 10 stage points paired with his 28 race points leaves him with 38 points overall – and therefore 30th in the standings. At this point last season, Hamlin was atop the rankings board with 139 points after inking fifth (Daytona), third (Daytona Road Coruse) and 11th (Homestead-Miami Speedway) on the early schedule sheet. Hamlin closed out 2021 in third.
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Hamlin’s mark of 38 is 75 less than points leader Kyle Larson (113). There are five competitors who have broken 100 points. Thirteen have notched 75 or more.
This weekend, though, has the potential to turn things around for Hamlin – or at least turn them in the right direction.
Hamlin has a strong history at Phoenix, host of Sunday’s Rouff Mortgage 500 (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). In 33 career starts, he has just two wins (spring 2012 and fall 2019), but he averages a 10.5 finish on the 1-mile track – good for second best among the garage (Kevin Harvick leads actives with an 8.8 stat line). And since 2005, Hamlin only has one DNF, yet it came after he led a Phoenix personal-best 193 laps (fall 2017, crash).
Better yet: In the past six visits to the Arizona circuit, Hamlin has a win, three top threes and five top fives.
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As of Thursday, BetMGM has Kyle Larson as its favorite to win Sunday’s race at 4-1 odds, surely banking on the fact he was the last to enjoy Phoenix’s Victory Lane back in November. Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammates, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr., are then listed at 7-1 each. Hamlin is next, tied with Larson’s teammate, Chase Elliott, at 8-1.
All of those with better or equal odds are holding court much higher in the standings than Hamlin. Larson, again, is first. Truex is then second, while Busch and Elliott are fifth and seventh, respectively. Unlike Hamlin, they’ve all ticked the top-10 box.
In reality, 25 different drivers have registered a top-10 run in 2022 – the most through three races since 26 in 1973. Hamlin happens to be an outlier in this case, which also makes him the only winner from 2021 to not have done so.
But thinking forward to this weekend, Hamlin is one of three who were in the top five and one of eight who were top 10 at the end of both Phoenix races last year – third in each.
This drought could oddly enough end in the desert and very well be short-lived.
