A rare party of parity is heading to Sin City.

For the first time since 1973, the first two races of the Cup Series schedule saw as many as 19 different top-10 finishers — the only repeat was Aric Almirola.

That presents a rather level playing field as NASCAR travels to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for its third regular-season points-paying event (Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX, PRN and SiriusXM).

LAS VEGAS: Weekend schedule | Paint schemes | Betting odds

Screen Shot 2022 03 03 At 4.15.25 Pm

There were 20 different drivers in 1973 who placed within the top 10 in Races 1 and 2. In 1972, there were 19. Same with 1965. Those years, now along with 2022, mark the most diverse early results in the sport’s history.

The hype gets better.

A rookie (Austin Cindric) won the season-opening Daytona 500. The reigning champion (Kyle Larson) won last weekend’s visit to Auto Club Speedway.

Seventeen different drivers, though, have led laps – the most at this point in a season since the tally of 18 in 2018.

It gets better.

Thirteen different teams have a top 10 this year already – from historic names like Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports to recent newcomers in 23XI Racing and Trackhouse Racing. Stewart-Haas Racing actually has the most top 10s at four, followed by Team Penske with three. Hendrick Motorsports and 23XI Racing have two apiece. Nine other organizations then add one each to round out the 20 overall options.

LAS VEGAS: Practice procedures, qualifying order and more

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NASCAR’s introduction of the Next Gen car has the entire garage starting from scratch, for the most part. Crews are only just beginning to learn the ins and outs of their new toy. And that’s giving those with less experience and resources an opportunity.

Las Vegas is the perfect venue to test this theory even further. The last five desert races were won by five different drivers. In the last 12, seven different.

Brad Keselowski leads his competition with three career wins, but those all came during his Team Penske run. Keselowski now turns the wheel for RFK Racing, which he co-owns.

BetMGM favors Larson to win Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube at 5-1 odds. Joey Logano and Chase Elliott are the next-best options at 15-2. Ryan Blaney is then 10-1. Keselowski doesn’t tap in until 25-1 despite his strong history.

Look for the parity to continue early on in the Next Gen era — and perhaps a team or two to take an extra gamble this weekend with the potential of a win even higher than normal.

LAS VEGAS: All-time winners | Memorable moments | Preview show

Veteran AJ Allmendinger not only leads the NASCAR Xfinity Series driver standings, but he also returns to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 300 (4:30 p.m. ET on FS1, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) as the defending race winner after beating Daniel Hemric by .978 seconds last year.

Two races into the 2022 season, Allmendinger, 40, holds a slim 1-point lead over Vegas native Noah Gragson in the championship standings. And although Gragson, 23, has yet to win on his home track, last year’s championship finalist has finished in the top 10 in all six career starts on the 1.5-mile speedway. His best showing is a runner-up finish in 2020.

RELATED: Las Vegas weekend schedule | Xfinity Series standings

Gragson is the only driver with top-five finishes in both 2022 races with a third place at Daytona and a runner-up effort last week at California in the No. 9 JR Motorsports Chevrolet. His 37 laps led on the season are second to Hemric’s 48 laps out front.

JR Motorsports teammate Josh Berry, who won the fall race last year at Las Vegas, figures to challenge Gragson and joins Allmendinger as the only two full-time series drivers with victories at Vegas.

“We’re coming back to Vegas with the same team that I won with last year at this place, so the confidence is high going into the weekend,” said Berry, who drives the No. 8 JR Motorsports Chevrolet.

“We made big strides last weekend finding the balance and we were in contention at the end, so I know this Tire Pros Camaro has speed. Taking everything we learned from last weekend in Fontana and last year from Vegas, there’s no reason we can’t put this car back in Victory Lane.”

Another JR Motorsports teammate, Justin Allgaier, comes to Las Vegas ranked third in the driver standings, a mere three-points behind Allmendinger. He also is looking for his first victory at Vegas but has three runner-up finishes — the most recent coming last March.

Reigning series champion Hemric will also be trying to earn his first victory of the season. Now driving for Kaulig Racing, he is Allmendinger’s new teammate. Although he’s led the most laps of 2022 and earned two stage wins, Hemric is still looking for his first top 10 of the year. He’s ranked ninth in the standings.

Austin Hill, a perennial title contender in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series, scored his first Xfinity Series win in the Daytona opener as he contends for the title for Richard Childress Racing. He’s ranked 11th heading into Vegas, where he won back-to-back Truck Series races in 2019-2020.

 

 

Zero for 625. That’s not a track record you want in NASCAR.

Bobby Dotter has been fighting for relevance in NASCAR since he debuted as a team owner in 1995. Heading into last weekend’s Xfinity Series race at Auto Club Speedway, his team hadn’t won in 625 combined starts in the Xfinity and Camping World Truck Series.

RELATED: Xfinity Series schedule | Las Vegas schedule

As a driver, Dotter saw some success, winning once in the Xfinity Series in 1992 at New River Valley Speedway, competing for Ed Reizen’s No. 08 team.

“I’ve never been ready to give up,” Dotter said earlier this week in a conversation with NASCAR.com. “I’ve never felt that way because this is my life.”

Between 1995 and 1998, Dotter owned a part-time Xfinity Series team, competing in as many as 24 races his first year. Between 2004 and 2013, he fielded multiple entries in the Camping World Truck Series with SS GreenLight Racing, with his team earning a pair of third-place finishes with David Starr and Ross Chastain.

RELATED: Driver stats for Bobby Dotter | Owner stats for Bobby Dotter

In 2014, Dotter revived his Xfinity Series program, running a partial schedule before Ray Black Jr. made the move full-time from Trucks to Xfinity in 2016. The team saw some success, though Andy Lally earned a fifth-place finish in 2017 at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. Gray Gaulding also recorded a pair of runner-up results in 2019 and 2020 at the superspeedways of Daytona and Talladega.

It was during this time that Dotter struck up a friendship with Joe Custer, president of Stewart-Haas Racing. SHR would supply SS GreenLight Racing with developmental crew members to pit the team’s entries, while also allowing the team to charter to the race weekends on the SHR plane.

Still, Dotter, deep down, wanted to grow his Xfinity Series program. He wasn’t content with mediocrity, competing with limited funding for all of these years. So ahead of the series’ debut at Circuit of The Americas, SHR plucked Cole Custer to drive the No. 17 Ford to get experience ahead of the Cup Series race, in a car co-owned by Dotter and Rick Ware.

“When we decided we wanted to elevate our program this year, it seemed like through the friendship we had developed, we saw how SHR operated and what a top-shelf team they are,” Dotter said.

Joe Graf Jr. was announced to return to the team in a full-time capacity for the 2022 season. Jeff Lefcourt, a family friend of the Grafs, bought into Dotter’s team, forming a full-blown alliance with Stewart-Haas, which includes seven chassis. For the first time, SS GreenLight Racing would have “A” engines for the duration of a season from Roush Yates Engines, while Graf would get additional experience on the Ford simulator.

“The bottom line on this whole program is an effort to give a better opportunity for Joe Graf Jr.,” Dotter said.

Part of the deal with SHR includes Cole Custer running a few races in the team’s second entry. Chase Briscoe is confirmed for one race as well.

Sponsored by Production Alliance Group, which happened to be the sponsor of the race, Custer was confident in his ability to get the job done. After all, the last time he raced in the Xfinity Series at Fontana, he edged out 102-time series winner Kyle Busch for the checkered flag.

Dotter, though, had no idea how Custer would perform, despite the No. 07 Ford being an SHR chassis.

“They told us from the minute we put the deal together that we had a good chance to win that race,” Dotter said. “I’ve just never been in that position before to where I had that much confidence. But as it was all unfolding, certainly I jumped on board, seeing we were there.”

In qualifying, Custer put the No. 07 Ford on the front row, starting behind only AJ Allmendinger. On Lap 49, Custer grabbed the lead for the first time, winning the second stage and putting himself in contention for the victory. But Custer had to outlast three green-white-checkered finishes, 15 laps more than the race’s scheduled distance. On the final overtime restart, he held off Noah Gragson and Anthony Alfredo, who was on fresher tires, giving SS GreenLight Racing its first series victory.

RELATED: Cole Custer nets Xfinity win in third overtime

Dotter could breathe a sigh of relief.

“I’m a half-full type of guy, where I’m thinking this can’t be happening for me, something is going to happen because I know it’s not going to go like this all the way,” Dotter added “But it did.

“I was ecstatic and happy. Knowing we had to run that car the next week (at Las Vegas), seeing him burn the tires off of it, it was like, ‘No, no, no, don’t blow a fender off the back.’ He used some common sense and had a little fun.”

Custer, a student of the sport, was happy to deliver Dotter and SS GreenLight Racing its coveted first victory.

“You won’t see anyone more hard-working and has been around this sport for a long time,” Custer said, “so it was really awesome to get those guys in Victory Lane and see all of their faces lit up. They were living it up and are really deserving because they work as hard as anybody.”

RELATED: Cole Custer drops by ‘Stacking Pennies’ to talk Xfinity win

What makes the triumph even more exciting for Dotter is Custer is scheduled to run a couple of upcoming races — potentially the next being in March at COTA — and Briscoe will be in the seat at least once. Having drivers of that caliber might not make the Auto Club win a one off.

The rest of the year for SS GreenLight Racing will be aimed at progressing Graf’s performance, improving on his 22nd- and 28th-place finishes in the championship standings during his first two full-time seasons.

Dotter’s ultimate goal this year is to have Graf place inside the top 20 in points, and to climb the No. 08 entry up the standings after missing the first two races.

With Xfinity Series teams mandated to run the same car for the opening two races of the West Coast swing, Graf will have the equipment under him this weekend at Las Vegas, as he will pilot the exact No. 07 Ford that won at Fontana.

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to its first 1.5-mile track of the season this weekend with a trip to Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Las Vegas also marks the first track teams will see that also makes an appearance in the playoffs, meaning plenty of notes will be taken on how the Next Gen car behaves in the desert.

Check out everything you need to know before Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

TRACK TIME IS KEY

NASCAR is adjusting its procedures for its revamped practice and qualifying this weekend at Las Vegas.

All teams will now be able to participate in Saturday’s 35-minute practice session (1:30 p.m. ET, FS2). After the session, teams will be broken into two groups (Group A and Group B) based on odd/even finishing order from last week’s race at Auto Club Speedway for single-car, single-lap qualifying (2:15 p.m. ET, FS1). The top five drivers from each group will then advance to the second round of qualifying to fight for the Busch Light Pole Award in another single-car, single-lap run.

RELATED: Las Vegas schedule | Cup Series standings

LAS VEGAS HISTORY

— Construction of Las Vegas Motor Speedway was completed in June 1996 on a 1,600-acre site near Nellis Air Force Base that holds rich racing history, dating back to a drag strip built in 1958. The site currently houses the 1.5-mile speedway, an industrial park, a drag strip, a 1/2-mile dirt track, a 3/8-mile paved oval and two road courses.

— The track’s original layout featured 12-degree banking in the corners, 3 degrees of banking on the backstretch and 9 degrees on the frontstretch. But a reconfiguration in 2006 changed the racing significantly, the result of 20-degree banking in the corners and 9-degree banking on each of the straightaways.

— Sunday marks the 29th race at Las Vegas.

— Las Vegas is the first of nine races held on 1.5-mile track this year.

Source: Racing Insights

GOODYEAR TIRES

Las Vegas has historically been a low-wear track for tires since the track was resurfaced. However, due in part to the Next Gen car’s wider tires and less downforce, Goodyear will issue the same right-side tire compound used at Auto Club as well as nine sets to use throughout the race.

“We have actually seen tire wear increase a little over the last couple races at Las Vegas,” said Greg Stucker, Goodyear’s director of racing. “It is certainly not in the category of a Darlington or a Fontana that we saw last week, but all track surfaces will naturally degrade over time and wear will increase. To go along with that, these cars will run a package that has higher horsepower (670) and lower downforce (4-inch spoiler) than in recent Vegas races, and that will add to the wear as cars are less ‘in the track’ and have more lateral slip.”

RELATED:
Complete list of horsepower/downforce track combinations

STORY LINES IN SIN CITY

— Kyle Larson has won five of the last seven races, the first driver to accomplish the feat since Tony Stewart in 2005.

— Aric Almirola is the only driver with two top 10s in 2022.

— Nineteen drivers have collected top-10 finishes this season. That’s the most through two races since 1973 (20).

— Kyle Larson’s Auto Club victory gives Hendrick Motorsports wins in 38 different seasons.

— Erik Jones finished third in Fontana, California, his best finish since driving the No. 43 Chevrolet. His 143 laps run in the top five were more than he ran in the top five in all of 2021 combined.

— Tyler Reddick led 90 laps at Auto Club before a flat left-rear tire ruined his day. Before that race, Reddick had led a combined 73 laps.

— Christopher Bell, William Byron and Harrison Burton all have two DNFs through two races.

— Thirteen of the last 14 Vegas races have been won by a Cup champion. Denny Hamlin is the exception after his September 2021 victory.

— The Stage 2 winner has won seven of the last nine races at Las Vegas.

— Kyle Larson leads all active drivers with four top-10 finishes in each of his last four Vegas starts. Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney each have three straight top 10s.

Source: Racing Insights

BETTING IT ALL IN VEGAS

Kyle Larson remains the odds-on favorite to hit the jackpot in Las Vegas this weekend with 9-2 odds, according to BetMGM. Not far behind is his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Chase Elliott (7-1), but Elliott has yet to win at the 1.5-mile track.

Elliott finished second in Vegas last September but had three straight finishes outside the top 10 before that performance.

The bet that should be catching eyes this weekend is Brad Keselowski at 25-1 odds. Keselowski leads all active drivers with three wins. Of course, those all came in Team Penske’s No. 2 car. The 2012 Cup champion now finds himself wheeling the No. 6 Ford for the RFK Racing team he co-owns. The Next Gen car may provide some challenges, but there’s no question Keselowski knows how to wheel around Las Vegas.

RELATED: Odds for Las VegasAnalyzing driver head-to-head matchups

FANTASY LIVE

Want to manage a team and race your way to the top of the leaderboards? Check out NASCAR Fantasy Live, which is open now. The free-to-play game lets you choose your drivers each week and show off your crew-chief instincts by garaging a driver by the end of Stage 2, and there is a $25,000 prize for the winner.

The 2022 Fantasy Live points leaders are Austin Cindric (76 points), Joey Logano (75 points) and Martin Truex Jr. (68 points).

How to play: Fantasy Live | Set up a team today!

ALSO ON NASCAR.COM

Get additional camera views by logging on to NASCAR Drive, where each week a select number of in-car cameras will be available — as well as a battle cam and an overhead look.

NASCAR has partnered with LiveLike to add fan engagement in the NASCAR Mobile App. Log in to the mobile app during the race for polls, quizzes, the cheer meter and more — and see instant results from NASCAR fans like you.

Before Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), try your hand at some props on the race ranging from who will win a featured matchup to where a driver will finish.

Featured Matchups of the Week

Best team finishes

Where will a driver finish?

General race questions

For 151 laps at Auto Club Speedway on Sunday, Tyler Reddick delivered on lofty preseason expectations. 

For the first three-quarters of the Wise Power 400, the 26-year-old California native was in position to earn the first of “a lot of wins,” as Kyle Larson predicted two weeks earlier when the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion joined Mamba Smith and a chorus of pundits in dubbing Reddick a potential “breakout” driver for 2022.

“I feel like when I watch him, I am watching myself just because we are both really aggressive,” Larson said. “And he seems to be even a little more aggressive and kind of keep things in control better than I could back when I was running really hard in Ganassi equipment trying to run up front.”

Reddick did precisely that for 151 laps in his home state. He led for 90 laps — 17 more than the combined 73 laps he led in 75 previous NASCAR Cup Series races — and won the first two stages with remarkable control of his BetMGM-sponsored No. 8 Chevrolet at the worn-out tri-oval in Fontana.

RELATED: Weekend schedule for Las Vegas | Odds for Sunday’s race 

“I don’t even know if I truly understand what I do or what I’m doing to the car or the tires with the line that I run,” Reddick said after the race, referring to an instinctively aggressive style he developed in dirt and sprint car racing. “I just have a system or a way of knowing how to work up to what I think is 100 percent, and then finding that extra five, 10 percent when it’s time to go … I wouldn’t say I really understand it, either.”

Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough for Reddick’s first career Cup Series win as a blown left-rear tire — and subsequent collision with William Byron — on the 152nd lap pushed him to a 24th-place finish and, eventually, Larson to his 17th career win. 

It was enough, however, for a resounding vote of confidence for Reddick himself and the BetMGM sportsbook.

Shortly after Reddick praised his pit crew for adjustments on the Next Gen car and expressed optimism for the remainder of the season, oddsmakers reacted to Reddick’s strong race by slashing his championship odds and placing him narrowly behind the favorites in Pennzoil 400 odds.

He’s now tied with Austin Cindric and Christopher Bell for the 12th-best championship odds at +2500 (down from +3300). And, at +1400, just behind Kyle Busch (+1200) for eighth at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend. 

Fans are also casting votes of confidence in Reddick this weekend; as of Wednesday, March 2, he ranks a season-high sixth in both ticket share and handle share for race winner at BetMGM:

Driver Odds Tickets Handle
Joey Logano +700 7.4% 24.8%
Kyle Larson +350 7.4% 10.2%
Kyle Busch +1200 6.5% 8.5%
Chase Elliott +700 6.2% 7.7%
Austin Dillon +3300 5.6% 6.6%
Tyler Reddick +1400 5% 5.3%
Austin Cindric +3300 4.7% 3%
William Byron +1000 4.7% 3%
Brad Keselowski +2500 4.5% 3.6%
Kevin Harvick +1800 4.5% 5.3%

Reddick is also making his season debut in BetMGM’s Featured Matchups for Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

William Byron (-130) vs. Tyler Reddick (+110)

Byron and Reddick share a manufacturer, Chevrolet, as Byron politely noted over his radio at Texas Motor Speedway last October, but that hasn’t stopped some on- and off-track dust-ups between the former Xfinity Series champions.

Byron has more career starts in Vegas than Reddick — and a driver rating of 94.2 vs. 69.3 at the track since 2019 — but they’ve split the four head-to-head matchups at the 1.5-mile tri-oval, and Reddick has a higher average finish (13.6 vs. 14.5) at similar intermediate tracks since 2019.

As of Wednesday, bettors are heavily favoring Byron to finish ahead of Reddick; he has 94% of tickets and 83% of the handle.

Kyle Larson (-150) vs. Chase Elliott (+125)

Kyle Larson wasted no time in rebounding from the Lap 190 crash at Daytona with a win in Fontana, his 10th in his last 24 starts. And he’s a heavy favorite (+350) to make it 11 wins in 25 starts and top teammate Chase Elliott in doing so.

One week after Larson’s “honest mistake” that sent Elliott into the wall and out of contention in the Wise Power 400, they’re counterparts in a fascinating Featured Matchup as Larson seeks a second straight win in Vegas. He won the final two stages last March en route to his first win with Hendrick Motorsports.

Ninety-eight percent of tickets (and 96% of the handle) are currently on Elliott, however.

Joey Logano (-120) vs. Kyle Busch (+100)

Despite ninth- and 11th-place finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last year — with two sub-100 driver ratings that snapped a 10-race streak of 100-plus ratings at the track — Joey Logano has sensational numbers in Vegas. 

Over the last six races at the track, the 27-time Cup Series winner ranks first in average driver rating (109.2), second in laps led (15.8%), third in top-10 finishes (four), and third in average finish (7.5). In 18 career Cup Series and Xfinity Series starts in Vegas, he’s finished worse than 14th only twice, both of which came before 2013.

To earn win No. 28, he’ll need to, at minimum, beat Vegas native Kyle Busch, whom he brawled with after a crash at the 2017 Kobalt 400. And the BetMGM public loves Logano in the head-to-head, pounding the book with 99% of tickets and 80% of the handle.

Kurt Busch (-120) vs. Austin Dillon (+110)

Kurt Busch, in his first year driving the No. 45 Toyota for Michael Jordan’s 23XI Racing, is back in Nevada after opening the season with back-to-back top-20 finishes for the first time since 2017.

After a decade-long struggle for relevance at his hometown track, during which he routinely finished with sub-70 ratings, Busch has finished first, 19th, and eighth in his last three starts in Las Vegas, the best three-race stretch of his career.

As of Wednesday, Dillon has 97% of the tickets, but just 10% of the handle.

You can view updated Pennzoil 400 odds and more NASCAR odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

FONTANA, Calif. (March 2, 2022) – Auto Club Speedway is saddened to learn that pioneering motorsports journalist Norma Lee “Dusty” Brandel has passed away at the age of 87.

Brandel’s career as a motorsports journalist began in 1955 as a writer for the Hollywood Citizen-News and she covered sports car races throughout Southern California. In 1972, at Ontario Motor Speedway, Brandel became the first woman to cover a NASCAR race from inside the garage and was honored by the NASCAR Hall of Fame with the Squier-Hall Award for Media Excellence in 2018.

“Dusty not only was a trailblazing journalist, she was also a dear friend of Auto Club Speedway and of many within the racing community throughout Southern California and beyond,” said Auto Club Speedway President Dave Allen. “Our condolences go out to her family and friends during this difficult time.”

Brandel covered the first races at Auto Club Speedway in 1997, and she also worked in press information at other Southern California tracks throughout her career. In addition to her recognition from the NASCAR Hall of Fame, Brandel received the American Auto Racing Writers & Broadcasters Association (AARWBA) Angelo Angelopolous Award in 2001. She also served as president of AARWBA and was a board member of the West Coast Stock Car Hall of Fame.

The Action Network specializes in providing sports betting insights/analytics and is a content partner with NASCAR. Check out more NASCAR betting analysis here.

The NASCAR Cup Series had a highly successful race at the 2-mile Auto Club Speedway this past weekend, drawing rave reviews for the Next Gen car.

Now, it moves on to the series’ bread-and-butter track type, the 1.5-mile oval, for 400 miles at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

The race at Auto Club brought about some surprises, with Tyler Reddick and Erik Jones leading the way as the two fastest cars. However, despite their dominance, series champion Kyle Larson captured yet another checkered flag.

RELATED: Odds for Las Vegas race | Weekend schedule for Las Vegas

Books have reacted sharply to Auto Club, pricing Jones between 20-1 and 25-1 to win after coming in at 50-1 or longer the previous week. And the consensus line on Reddick is 14-1, although you can still grab him at 16-1 at some books.

That leads me to a third driver who was arguably second- or third-best on the day. In this driver’s case, books have not reacted to his strong day, possibly because it was overshadowed by Reddick and Jones, and possibly because he crashed out.

That’s where I’m focusing on my best early bet for Las Vegas.

NASCAR Picks & Predictions for Las Vegas

*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon

The driver I’m eyeing for my best early week bet is William Byron to win at +1300 on FanDuel.

Up to the point of his wreck on lap 151 at Auto Club, Byron had the third-best average green flag speed behind Jones and Reddick. He led 16 laps on the day, meaning 10.6% of the laps he ran were in the lead. That’s third best among all drivers at Auto Club.

Notably, since the advent of loop data in 2005 on intermediate tri- or quad-oval tracks, his 97.3 driver rating is the highest ever for a driver finishing 34th.

That’s a 219-race sample size!

In other words, Byron was really good, yet his odds haven’t shortened from Auto Club to Las Vegas.

That’s curious considering Las Vegas was one of his better tracks last year. In the spring race, Byron had the fifth-best average green flag speed and brought it home eighth.

In the fall playoff race, he was extremely unlucky to get caught out on poor pit strategy. He had by far the best car in that race, leading everyone in average green flag speed. He posted that speed despite having to drive through the field twice.

A flat tire relegated him to an 18th-place finish, but he was clearly the class of the field.

Overall, Byron had the second-best average running position at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021.

My model gives him a 9.3% chance of victory, easily besting his 7.1% implied odds to win.

If you can’t grab him at +1300, he’s widely available at +1200, so I wouldn’t go below that number.

Check out the qualifying order (2:15 p.m. ET on FS1) for Saturday’s on-track action at Las Vegas Motor Speedway before Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). To view the order, click the printer icon above or click here to see the full order.

On most ovals this season, teams will be split into two groups based on odd/even finishing order from the week’s previous race for one 15-minute warmup/practice session per group. That will NOT be the case at Las Vegas, where the full field will comprise one group for the Cup practice (1:30 p.m. ET on FS2) that will run for 35 minutes to give teams additional on-track time.

That practice will lead directly into single-car, single-lap qualifying that is split up into two groups. The top five drivers from each group will then advance to the second round of qualifying to fight for the pole with another single-car, single-lap run.

RELATED: Learn more about the practice and qualifying procedures for 2022

NASCAR officials issued a four-race suspension Tuesday to Front Row Motorsports crew chief Seth Barbour and crew members Jourdan Osinskie (jack man) and Tanner Andrews (front changer) after the No. 38 Ford lost a wheel during last weekend’s Cup Series event at Auto Club Speedway.

RELATED: NASCAR Cup Series schedule

Todd Gilliland drove the No. 38 to a 20th-place finish in Sunday’s Wise Power 400, but his car lost a wheel during a caution period for the Stage 1 break. The Bob Jenkins-owned team was cited under Sections 10.5.2.6 of the NASCAR Rule Book, which covers “loss or separation of an improperly installed tire/wheel from the vehicle.”

Front Row announced Wednesday it had begun the appeals process for the penalties against the No. 38 team.