Since announcing on July 20 he is leaving Team Penske after the 2021 NASCAR season to join Roush Fenway Racing as a driver and minority owner, Brad Keselowski’s on-track performance has fallen off. His third-place finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 18 is his last in the top five, he has been 24th or worse three times in the seven most recent races and led just 27 total laps during this span.

Despite an excellent history at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Keselowski is priced as a 14-1 longshot on oddsboards throughout the betting market to win Sunday’s South Point 400 (7 p.m. ET on NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

RELATED: NASCAR BetCenter | Odds for Sunday’s race at Las Vegas

Over the seven Las Vegas races since 2018, Keselowski’s 4.86 average finish leads the Cup Series, per DriverAverages.com, and he has a win, four top fives and a 102.7 rating to boot. His second-place finish here this past spring came after winning the Stage 1 and finishing second in Stage 2.

His lame duck status with Penske, though, has bookmakers and bettors wondering if he’s a driver to fade not only this weekend but also for the rest of the season.

“There’s always a question when these guys are leaving to go to another team,” said Ed Salmons, vice president of risk management at SuperBook USA. “You always hear, ‘Well, he’s not getting the good stuff now.'”

Salmons, whose NASCAR numbers tend to influence the market, says the dynamic of a driver’s departure factors into his oddsmaking.

“Definitely,” he said. “You look at track history, you look at how they’re running, you look at what you think people are gonna bet, and you kind of go from there and settle on a price. It’s all baked into the number.”

Count Jim Sannes, a quantitative NASCAR analyst at numberFire, among bettors who won’t be invested in the No. 2 Ford on Sunday.

Michigan International Speedway is the only oval the circuit has visited since New Hampshire to employ the 550-horsepower, high-downforce package that will be used in Las Vegas (per Salmons, Michigan is not a useful comparison to Vegas). So most of the races that have been run since Keselowski’s announcement are not included in Sannes’ model. That means the model does not take into account Keselowski’s recent dip.

Sannes said he would have considered downgrading Keselowski had his simulations overrated him by not factoring in his impending departure from Penske. But even without adjustments, the sims give Kes just a 3.5% chance to win Sunday; 14-1 odds imply a 6.67% chance.

Had his sims not met the smell test, Sannes said in a direct message: “I’d basically treat Keselowski as if he’s not in the 2 car anymore because — at least to me — he’s effectively not. And even if the sims still showed value in him, I’d simply ignore it and not bet him. I’m not touching him right now.”

Zack White, though, a professional sports bettor who specializes in NASCAR, is not making a downward adjustment on Keselowski.

“Maybe if he wasn’t racing for a championship or (was) leaving on bad terms. Or if the team was folding,” White said in a text message. “Everyone still wants to win in this case, so no change for me.”

And even if Penske resources are being deployed more heavily to Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, Salmons isn’t counting Keselowski out, either. Salmons puts Kes in the rare company of drivers who can steal a race when he’s not in the best car, pointing to last year’s Coca-Cola 600 as an example.

“(Chase) Elliott had the race won and (William) Byron got a flat, and they decided to pit (Elliott) from the lead when no one else pitted,” Salmons said. “Keselowski just drove around two laps and won the race that he had zero business winning.”

Marcus DiNitto is a writer and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has been covering sports for nearly two-and-a-half decades and sports betting for more than 10 years. His first NASCAR betting experience was in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his matchup picks. Read his articles and follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.

The 2021 NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Playoffs continue Friday, as four races remain in the season-long battle for the championship.

RELATED: Camping World Truck Series point standings

Last week, the Round of 10 concluded at Bristol Motor Speedway. Two title-eligible drivers were eliminated from the postseason competition – Todd Gilliland and Austin Hill – while eight carried on – John Hunter Nemechek, Sheldon Creed, Ben Rhodes, Zane Smith, Chandler Smith, Matt Crafton, Carson Hocevar and Stewart Friesen. Creed won the first two Round of 10 events (World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway and Darlington Raceway) to clinch a Round of 8 berth, and Chandler Smith won the elimination race (Bristol) to survive another round. The other six advanced on points.

Up next is the Round of 8, featuring Las Vegas Motor Speedway (Friday), Talladega Superspeedway (Oct. 2) and Martinsville Speedway (Oct. 30). Afterward, the Championship 4 will be set and compete at Phoenix Raceway on Nov. 5 in a straight-up race for the ultimate trophy.

Now, a Round of 8 track-by-track breakdown:

LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

(📅 Friday | 9 p.m. ET | 📺 FS1 | 📻 MRN, SiriusXM)

Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Length: 1.5 miles
Distance: 134 laps, 201 miles
Previous winner: John Hunter Nemechek (March 5, 2021)

John Hunter Nemechek won the regular-season event at Las Vegas earlier this year, leading a race-high 94 of the 134 laps. There were four other playoff drivers who also finished in the top 10 – Stewart Friesen (fourth), Matt Crafton (fifth), Zane Smith (sixth) and Ben Rhodes (10th).

Crafton has the most Las Vegas experience in his career and with that comes the most top-five and top-10 finishes among his postseason competition. He has not won, though. Nemechek and Rhodes are the only playoff drivers with previous Las Vegas wins. Zane Smith then has the best average finish.

Screen Shot 2021 09 22 At 3.55.14 Pm

TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

(📅 Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET | 📺 FS1 | 📻 MRN, SiriusXM)

Location: Talladega, Alabama
Length: 2.66 miles
Distance: 94 laps, 250.04 miles
Previous winner: Raphael Lessard (Oct. 3, 2020)

Raphael Lessard won this race last year, holding the lead on Lap 94 of 94 only. He was not – and is not – a playoff contender. There were, however, three drivers with 2021 title potential in the top-10 finishing order – Chandler Smith (third), Ben Rhodes (fourth) and Matt Crafton (eighth).

Not a single playoff driver has won at Talladega before. Four of the eight – Rhodes, Smith, Crafton and Stewart Friesen – have one top-five finish apiece. Crafton has the most top 10s, given his unique double-digit start count. Smith holds the best average finish, though skewed since he has only one start in his career. Carson Hocevar has no prior Talladega experience.

Screen Shot 2021 09 22 At 3.54.58 Pm

MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

(📅 Oct. 30 | 1 p.m. ET | 📺 FS1 | 📻 MRN, SiriusXM)

Location: Martinsville, Virginia
Length: 0.526 miles
Distance: 200 laps, 105.2 miles
Previous winner: Grant Enfinger (Oct. 30, 2020)

Grant Enfinger, who was not playoff eligible this season as he was not entered in an early-season race, won the Martinsville playoff race in 2020 after leading 49 of the 200 laps. Five drivers currently in the playoffs were also in the top 10 – Ben Rhodes (second), Zane Smith (third), Matt Crafton (fifth), Stewart Friesen (sixth) and Sheldon Creed (eighth).

Crafton dominates four of the five statistical categories in consideration for Martinsville heading in the Round of 8 elimination race – starts, wins, top fives and top 10s. Zane Smith has the best average finish, though skewed with just one career start. Otherwise, Crafton would be tied with Rhodes for best average finish in the postseason field. Chandler Smith has never raced at Martinsville before.

Screen Shot 2021 09 22 At 3.54.45 Pm

The NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour will conclude its 2021 season this Saturday at Stafford Motor Speedway, and the main story line going into the race is the championship battle.

Justin Bonsignore leads Patrick Emerling by 16 points headed to the finale, looking to seal his third Whelen Modified Tour championship in the last four years. Emerling is looking for his first crown after 11 years of tour competition — with four career wins to his credit. Emerling is no stranger to championship glory, as a former Modified champion on the Race of Champions Tour, but this is his first shot at title glory with NASCAR.

Outside of the title battle, there are also countless other story lines to watch in the Whelen Modified Tour season-finale. The battle is on for third position on back in the championship race, while some drivers are invading the tour for the first time in their career, and others are coming back to looking to end the season in style.

RACE INFO: Race Center: Stafford | Entry List

————–

BREAKING IT DOWN: Bonsignore vs Emerling

Both Justin Bonsignore and Patrick Emerling have proven that they belong in this position going to the final race of the year.

Emerling is having undoubtedly the best year of his Whelen Modified Tour career, posting three victories (Stafford, Lancaster and Riverhead), while Bonsignore’s consistency is striking again.

DRIVER NAME: Justin Bonsignore Patrick Emerling
Career Titles 2 0
Career Wins 30 4
Career Top-Fives 95 26
Career Top-10s 126 59
Career Poles 19 3
Years of NWMT Racing 15 11

With a 16-point gap, a finish of 11th or better will clinch a third title for the Holtsville, New York, native, no matter what Emerling does. If Bonsignore leads a lap, he needs to finish 12th or better. There are multiple scenarios involved — but if the two end up tying at the top at the end of the NAPA Fall Final 150 — Emerling will win, by virtue of his multiple wins.

At Stafford specifically, both of them have led laps — but only Emerling is a winner, which occurred in the NAPA Spring Sizzler in April. Bonsignore has competed at the half-mile 40 times in Whelen Modified Tour action — and has yet to win — and his fellow competitors will be the first to give you the 0-40 stat. He has led 335 laps there, including 14 in August, before Ryan Preece passed him in the final laps to take the win, and Bonsignore was forced to his fourth runner-up finish there.

Emerling Wins Sizzler
Patrick Emerling celebrates winning the NAPA Spring Sizzler at Stafford in April. (Adam Glanzman/NASCAR)

Either way, both of them would be deserving champions.

POINT STANDINGS ENTERING STAFFORD

For Emerling, it would be a breakout performance for the ages, and one that no one could have predicted leading into the season. For Bonsignore, it would be another step towards cementing a dynasty. He looks to become just the fourth driver in Whelen Modified Tour history to capture three or more titles. Only Mike Stefanik (seven), Doug Coby (six) and Tony Hirschman (five) are on the list. Coby’s title run in 2019 is the only thing stopping Bonsignore from chasing a fourth straight.

“We just have to go out there and race the same way we have been racing all season,” Bonsignore said in a race preview. “We have to have a maximum day — qualify well, get a good pit stall selection, and try to get out front, lead laps and control the race, then wait for the pit stop. With the different tire strategies that happen at Stafford, it makes it difficult to figure it out. This should be a lot of business as usual for us, just a bit more conscious of where we are at with the points. There is a long way to go before we can think about winning the championship — we don’t want to be ahead of ourselves. It would be special to become a three-time series champion. Not many guys are on that list and they are all legends of the modifieds.”

Bonsignore is more experienced, and most consistent. But Emerling has more wins this year, and is primed to make a run at the gold. Only one driver can hoist the brand new series trophy, released earlier this year.

————–

Battle For 3-7 in Championship Race is Close

Even though Bonsignore and Emerling have run away, leading third place by more than 60 points, the race between third and seventh is closer than ever. Ron Silk is third, 68 points from the lead, while Kyle Bonsignore is fourth, just six behind Silk. It’s another nine back to Woody Pitkat, 10 to Doug Coby and 13 to Eric Goodale. Heading to Stafford, it seems all of them could be due for a solid finish.

All five drivers are previous Stafford winners, and two of them are former track champions. Pitkat is second on the all-time wins list at the track with 78, while Coby, a former track champion, has 12 career tour wins at Stafford. Pitkat hasn’t quite had the season he was hoping for in his return to full-time action — with only two top-five finishes in 13 races — but will be hoping some home cooking will get him to Victory Lane to close out the year.

When it comes to the tour season, Coby has two DNFs (Loudon & Riverhead last week), but still is sixth in the championship battle heading to the finale. In the owner’s championship race, Coby and his Doug Coby Racing team are comfortably set to lock-up third, since Chase Dowling drove the car to a top-10 at Oswego.

Silk enters his final race with Kevin Stuart Motorsports at Stafford. Set to move on to a different operation next year, Silk has won seven times since he started driving for the team in 2017 — including twice at Stafford. Kyle Bonsignore and Goodale are former winners, but have just six combined top-fives this year.

————–

SK Modified Points Contender To Make Tour Debut

It’s time to make the move to the big time for a successful driver, and crew chief.

Stephen Kopcik is second, only 14 points out of the lead, on the heels of five wins in 18 starts in the track’s historic SK Modified division with two races to go. His next contest will occur on Friday night, as he looks to best Todd Owen in the battle between two drivers looking for their first title.

On Saturday, Kopcik goes Whelen Modified Tour racing for the first time.

Kopcik will drive for Gershow Racing in the No. 2 Gershow Recycling entry owned by Joe Bertuccio. As a proven driver, Kopcik isn’t overly concerned about getting up to speed — especially since he has plenty of tour experience as a crew chief for NASCAR Cup Series regular Ryan Preece. The combination has already been to Victory Lane three times this year, including at Stafford in August.

Kopcik, Preece At Stafford
Stephen Kopcik (left) celebrates winning the Mayhew Tools pole award with driver Ryan Preece at the Whelen Modified Tour event at Stafford in August. (Adam Glanzman/NASCAR)

 

“I don’t want to sound cocky but my goal is to start and run in the top-10 all day,” Kopcik said in a track release. “I know it’s not easy racing on the tour, but Stafford is my home track and I set these cars up for a living, so I want to run well and I don’t think the top-10 is out of reach for us. Mike Bologna, the crew chief on the car, is going to give me everything I need to succeed, so it’s very possible for us to have a good run. I think my track knowledge will benefit me more with just knowing the driving style to get around Stafford. Any driver will tell you Stafford is a unique track. You look at someone like Justin Bonsignore, he’s a bada** on the Tour and he hasn’t won yet at Stafford and then someone like Doug Coby, Stafford is his home track and he’s kind of had the track in his back pocket. It’ll be interesting for me to see how my experience matches up against those guys.  I feel really confident racing at Stafford.”

Quick links:

NAPA Fall Final 150 Race Notes:

  • The Whelen Modified Tour season will conclude in Connecticut for the 22nd consecutive year, but this time, Stafford Motor Speedway will host the finale. The half-mile in Stafford Springs, Connecticut, has played a crucial role in the title battle since the inception of the series in 1985, hosting at least one race in every year except 1988.
  • C.J. Lehmann will make his first Whelen Modified Tour start since 2017, as the NASCAR Advance Auto Parts Weekly Racing Series regular at Riverhead Raceway will compete for Steve Mendoza.
  • Craig Lutz has entered the race driving a second car in the Dave Sapienza Racing stable, numbered 63. Lutz’s team, Goodie Motorsports, announced their immediate closure a few weeks ago, and he drove the Danny Watts No. 82 at Riverhead, posting a DNF due to a crash. In his last five tour starts, Lutz has all DNFs.
  • Two-time track champion Ronnie Williams is back in the No. 50 for Paul Les, set to chase the checkered flag. Williams is fresh-off a podium run at Richmond Raceway earlier in the month, and is no stranger to the half-mile.
  • Joey Cipriano, a graduate of one of Stafford’s weekly divisions, will compete in a backup car for Kevin Stuart Motorsports. Austin Beers also returns to the Whelen Modified Tour for the fourth consecutive race, driving for Mike Murphy.
  • The NAPA Fall Final 150 is part of two days of racing at Stafford, including Friday. All of the track’s weekly divisions will be in action.
Stafford Candid
The Whelen Modified Tour season will conclude at Stafford, with 27 drivers entered to chase victory in the NAPA Fall Final 150. (NASCAR)

There can be few stories as heart-warming or as genuine as that of Evergreen Speedway stalwarts Troy and Amy Draper, who met at the Speedway 35 years ago and have been together ever since. With son Tyler notching his first win in the Stinger 8s earlier this season, the family association looks set to continue for a long while yet but after 37 years, Amy and Troy have understandably decided to call time on their dedicated service to the track.

We spoke to Amy last week about how she and Troy got involved at Evergreen and it’s a multi-generational family story. “My dad was involved in racing when I was a child, so I’ve pretty much been out there since I was nine days old! Then he was doing Figure 8 racing. My husband Troy got involved with his uncle and his cousin. His uncle worked for Mickey Beadle on Saturday nights and his cousin did tech for the Friday night club which was Sky Valley Racing at the time.”

Troy and Amy met at the track soon after they joined the staff aged just seventeen, and the happy couple have now celebrated 35 years of marriage. Amy picks up the story, “Troy started out as a tech for Sky Valley and then he did fire safety at turn one and two on the 5/8; then he started flagging for Sky Valley Racing Association and then that became Saturdays as well. I started out selling pit passes at the back gate and transitioned into being pit boss for Sky Valley and then WWRA. That transitioned into helping tech on Saturdays and being pit boss on Saturdays. I helped Troy flag for three months when his assistant was injured and since then we just do whatever needs help with doing.”

When asked what they’ve enjoyed the most over the years, Amy was quick to answer, “The people. We enjoy the sport. There’s good days and bad days but it’s been a lot of fun.”

Their son Tyler Draper has been running Stinger 8s for the last 7 or 8 years and this year got his first win, “That was really exciting for us. It was very cool to see him get his first win while we were still working there. He’s been out there since he was four days old. Our family has been out there for years. We will definitely miss all the people. The racers and the pit crews are what have made it special. We really appreciate everything Doug and Traci have put into the track in the last few years. It’s a tough decision but after doing it for 37 years, the next 35 years need to be about us but we will miss it.”

Amy concluded, “There are so many stories out there I wouldn’t know where to begin!” I’m sure the whole motorsports family in the Northwest and especially at Evergreen would like to say a big thank you to Amy and Troy, who plan to see more of their grandchildren in the years ahead. Every track needs their Amy and Troy and we are delighted to have had them here for so long.

Make sure you don’t miss out! Follow #EvergreenSpeedway

Keep up to date with all the latest from Evergreen Speedway via the Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/145921062115076/

See where your favorite driver will pit in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Round of 12 opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the South Point 400 (Sunday at 7 p.m. ET on NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

MARTINSVILLE, Va. — The Motor Racing Network (MRN) and TrackPass on NBC Sports Gold will broadcast the nation’s biggest, richest and most prestigious NASCAR Late Model Stock Car race, the ValleyStar Credit Union 300, on Saturday, Sept. 25.

“As the best late model stock car racers compete at Martinsville Speedway, we are proud to welcome the Motor Racing Network and TrackPass on NBC Sports Gold to broadcast the ValleyStar Credit Union 300,” said Martinsville Speedway President Clay Campbell. “The amazing at-track experience will only be enhanced with ‘The Voice of NASCAR’ on MRN and TrackPass on NBC Sports Gold calling the intense flag-to-flag action under the lights.”

Valley Star

On MRN, veteran announcers Alex Hayden and Steve Post will call the action from the booth with Dave Moody in the turns and Hannah Newhouse providing inside analysis and pit reporting. MRN’s broadcast coverage will start at 6:30 p.m. ET. The broadcast will be available on participating affiliates as well as MRN’s digital platforms.

“Late models under the lights at Martinsville have become a tradition for all of us at the Motor Racing Network,” said Chris Schwartz, President of Motor Racing Network. “And we are so excited to provide the soundtrack as the best local racers from around the country compete for the prestigious Martinsville grandfather clock and the biggest payout in NASCAR Late Model Stock Car racing!”

The ValleyStar Credit Union 300 is available to TrackPass users with either the NASCAR Roots package ($2.99/month) or the TrackPass: All Access pass ($4.99), which includes all live events from Progressive American Flat Track, ARCA Menards Series, NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour, NASCAR Pinty’s Series and IMSA.

The ValleyStar Credit Union 300 is NASCAR’s biggest, richest and most prestigious Late Model Stock Car Race, paying a total purse of more than $110,000 with the winner receiving $32,000 and the coveted Martinsville grandfather clock. Peyton Sellers, the 2021 NASCAR Advance Auto Parts Weekly Series champion, will compete with Bubba Pollard, Bobby McCarty, Timothy Peters, and other late model stars, along with Rajah Caruth making his event debut, in an impressive ValleyStar Credit Union 300 field.

On Saturday, Sept. 25, the Fan Garage/Pit Experience (i.e. driver autograph session) will be free to all fans with a ticket from 12:45 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. ET. Heat races will begin at 3 p.m. ET. Pre-race festivities begin at 5:30 p.m. ET with the 200-lap feature ValleyStar Credit Union 300 starting at 7 p.m. ET. The race will have three segments: 75 laps, 75 laps and 50 laps. Stage 1 and Stage 2 winners will each receive $1,000.

Practice for the ValleyStar Credit Union 300 begins Friday, Sept. 24 at 2 p.m. ET with qualifying for the pole position starting at 8 p.m. ET with the top qualifier pocketing an extra $5,000 courtesy of Martinsville Speedway. The Campbell Family Foundation will host a fireworks extravaganza following qualifying. Tickets are just $5 for Friday’s practice and qualifying sessions with kids 12-and-under are free.

ValleyStar Credit Union 300 race tickets are just $30 for adults with kids 12-and-under are free and available for purchase today via phone at 877-RACE-TIX or online at martinsvillespeedway.com.

ValleyStar Credit Union 300

Martinsville Speedway

Valley Star

Entry List

Car No.  Driver
7 Dylan Ward
16 Chad McCumbee
51 Matt Cox
50 Ross Dalton
2 Ryan Wilson
03 Brenden Queen
57 Justin T Carroll
25 Jacob Borst
91 Justin Carroll
90 Terry Carroll
6 Mike Darne
2 Matt Waltz
81 Zack Clifton
8 Thomas Scott
44 Justin Johnson
5 Carter Langley
87 Mike Looney
77 Blake Stallings
77 Logan Jones
55 Mark Wertz
9 Trey Crews
28 Ryan Glenski
95 Jacob Heafner
16 R.D. Smith
88 Brad Housewright
2 Brandon Pierce
24 Mason Diaz
6 Rajah Caruth
17 Taylor Gray
50 Jamey Caudill
10 Janson Marchbanks
61 Justin Hicks
44 Josh Kossek
70 Jeremy McDowell
88 Connor Jones
15 Kres Vandyke
22 Grayson Cullather
16 Matthew Linker
21 Tommy Neal
26 Bubba Pollard
41 Davey Callihan
17 Stacy Puryear
21 Jimmy Wallace
2 Amber Lynn
5 Dexter Canipe Jr
97 Daniel Silvestri
88 Joshua Gobble
8 Rusty Skewes
0 Landon Pembelton
44 T.J. Barron
91 Jonathan Shafer
22 Sammy Smith
02 Kyle Barnes
99 Layne Riggs
12 Timothy Peters
77 Trevor Ward
22 Bobby McCarty
73 Bruce Anderson
78 Corey Heim
59 Heath Causey
1 Terry Dease
41 Woody Howard
1 Jason Guillie
01 Camden Guillie
14 Jared Fyar
90 John Goin
77 Connor Hall
7 Bradley McCaskill
19 Wayne Hale
15 Ryan Millington
18 Jason York
4 Jonathan Findley
26 Peyton Sellers
1 Craig Moore
1 Trent Barnes
88 Doug Barnes Jr
4 Kaden Honeycutt
01 GR Waldrop
4 Kyle Dudley
24 Colin Garrett
7 Brandon Clements
51 Stephen Nasse
47 Jake Crum

Kyle Larson has secured the Busch Pole Award for Sunday’s South Point 400 (7 p.m. ET on NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

RELATED: Las Vegas weekend schedule | Cup Series standings

Larson — winner of the most recent NASCAR Cup Series event, at Bristol Motor Speedway — will start his No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet from the first spot for the fourth time in the last six races. The 400-miler is the opening race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs’ Round of 12.

Austin Cindric claimed the pole for Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series Alsco Uniforms 302 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), the opening race in that circuit’s postseason. John Hunter Nemechek earned the No. 1 starting spot for Friday’s Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 presented by Westgate Resorts (9 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN, SiriusXM) for the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Playoffs Round of 8 opener.

Larson, Cindric and Nemechek are all the current points leaders in their respective series.

As NASCAR adapted to COVID-19 protocols last season, practice and qualifying were eliminated at a majority of national-series events to limit at-track time, exposure and to cut race weekend costs. To determine starting lineups, competition officials used grouped draws, added inversions for weekend doubleheaders, and eventually adopted a performance-metrics formula. That metrics format remains in place this season, drawing on performance from both individual races and season-long results.

NASCAR’s metrics formula for 2021 weighs:

  • 25 percent: Driver’s finishing position from the previous race
  • 25 percent: Car owner’s finishing position from the previous race
  • 35 percent: Team owner points ranking
  • 15 percent: Fastest lap from the previous race

See the full lineup for Saturday night’s Cup Series race below.

Start pos.
Driver Car # Team
1 Kyle Larson 5 Hendrick Motorsports
2 Ryan Blaney 12 Team Penske
3 William Byron 24 Hendrick Motorsports
4 Martin Truex Jr. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing
5 Kevin Harvick 4 Stewart-Haas Racing
6 Denny Hamlin 11 Joe Gibbs Racing
7 Alex Bowman 48 Hendrick Motorsports
8 Brad Keselowski 2 Team Penske
9 Joey Logano 22 Team Penske
10 Kyle Busch 18 Joe Gibbs Racing
11 Chase Elliott 9 Hendrick Motorsports
12 Christopher Bell 20 Joe Gibbs Racing
13 Tyler Reddick 8 Richard Childress Racing
14 Matt DiBenedetto 21 Wood Brothers Racing
15 Austin Dillon 3 Richard Childress Racing
16 Erik Jones 43 Richard Petty Motorsports
17 Aric Almirola 10 Stewart-Haas Racing
18 Ross Chastain 42 Chip Ganassi Racing
19 Chase Briscoe 14 Stewart-Haas Racing
20 Kurt Busch 1 Chip Ganassi Racing
21 Bubba Wallace 23 23XI Racing
22 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing
23 Michael McDowell 34 Front Row Motorsports
24 Ryan Preece 37 JTG Daugherty Racing
25 Chris Buescher 17 Roush Fenway Racing
26 Daniel Suarez 99 Trackhouse Racing
27 Corey LaJoie 7 Spire Motorsports
28 Cole Custer 41 Stewart-Haas Racing
29 Ryan Newman 6 Roush Fenway Racing
30 Garrett Smithley 53 Rick Ware Racing
31 Josh Bilicki 52 Rick Ware Racing
32 Anthony Alfredo 38 Front Row Motorsports
33 Justin Haley 77 Spire Motorsports
34 BJ McLeod 78 Live Fast Motorsports
35 Cody Ware 51 Petty Ware Racing
36 Quin Houff 00 StarCom Racing
37 Joey Gase 15 Rick Ware Racing
38 JJ Yeley 66 Motorsports Business Management

Practice and qualifying are tentatively scheduled for eight Cup Series races this year. Just one race remains with Busch Pole Qualifying on the schedule — the season-ending championship race Nov. 7 at Phoenix Raceway.

Noah Gragson doesn’t sugarcoat anything. That happens to be one of the traits that either draws fans in or pushes them away from the third-year full-time Xfinity Series driver.

He has zero regrets.

“I don’t feel that I would change anything because I try to learn from the mistakes and grow as a person,” Gragson told NASCAR.com before the Xfinity Series race at Richmond Raceway, which he would later win. “And without those opportunities and moments, I don’t think I can really learn from it.”

Gragson is alluding to his start of the 2021 season. At Homestead-Miami Speedway, the No. 9 Chevrolet was in prime position to win in South Beach, but unfortunate circumstances stopped him in his tracks. This time, it was David Starr’s No. 13 car blowing a tire and coming up the race track in front of the No. 9 Chevrolet. There was nowhere for Gragson to go.

After the race, Gragson had some choice words for Starr and MBM Motorsports, mentioning the driver was always in the way. Three weeks later at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Gragson put his car in reverse during a pit stop to exit his stall. When doing so, he nearly clipped a couple of Daniel Hemric’s pit crew members. Following that event, the two drivers swung at each other.

“There’s nothing you can do,” Gragson said on if he’d take back anything from earlier in the year. “It’s easy to Monday-morning-quarterback it.”

The spring wasn’t too kind to the No. 9 team. Through the opening 13 races of the season, Gragson had six DNFs (four due to crashes; two to engine failures) with an average result of 20.8. In the last of those incidents at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course, he was out after Turn 1 of the opening lap, when his entire front end was junked from narrowly going in the grass.

But the team knew it had speed. Two-time championship-winning crew chief Dave Elenz wasn’t concerned, despite what it looked like from the outside looking in.

“The results at the beginning of the year were not good, but (Gragson) and I didn’t focus on the results because there’s a lot of factors that can damage our results,” Elenz said. “Our performance is what we can control, and both him and I felt very strong about the performance that he was putting on at the race track.

“Results are results and it’s what we have to talk about, but I don’t see that hurting us at this point of the year because I still have the confidence in him and he still has the confidence in me.”

Internally, though, Gragson was concerned with the results. During the midst of the stretch, he wasn’t sure if he’d even be returning to JR Motorsports for a fourth season in 2022. He thought about that daily.

MORE: Noah Gragson returns to JR Motorsports for 2022 | NXS Silly Season tracker 

“I think it was all rock bottom,” he said of his early season struggles. “I’m a guy where, if it’s good I’m on top of the world and if it’s bad, I’m at the bottom with the lowest of lows. It’s tough being that way because you have a bad day when you get back home, but I’m able to rebound. For a few days, it’s tough after a bad race or if something doesn’t go your way, you’re like, ‘(Expletive), I just want it to turn around.’”

Gragson credits Elenz, his family, Brandon McReynolds (manager), Kristen Bauer (director of business development/partnerships at JR Motorsports) and others for keeping him on track when things are tough. Their continued support motivates him to rebound.

“I’m more like family, so it’s more like a little brother-type relationship than it is me getting caught up in the details of those moments,” McReynolds, who formed a friendship with Gragson while competing in the K&N West Series, said. “What you see is what you get, and that’s what I’ve always appreciated about Noah. Even where there’s times when I’ll say, ‘Don’t do that.’”

Away from the track, McReynolds states Gragson is the same way. He also believes the 23-year-old has matured by smoothing out the highs and lows and taking in the success.

With recent victories at Darlington Raceway and Richmond, it’s possible he’s taking it in more than ever because of the terrible start to the season.

On the flip side, when Gragson has a parts failure or gets caught up in an incident he didn’t start, he’s going to show his displeasure. That’s just who he is. You can’t change it, so don’t bother trying.

“For a long time, I was trying to look at Noah, especially in his K&N and Truck Series days and even a little bit into Xfinity on how to change him and make him go about everything he was doing on track and off track, social media, interviews, how would I do it,” said McReynolds, who works for Truex Management Group. “Where I think we’ve grown as a group and support system from a management side — and it takes a team of us, it’s not just me — is, being more supportive of who he is and that he is a fun, West Coast kid.

“He just needs to be himself and always keep the focus on what he can be doing better on and off the track. If you can create that culture, in my opinion, it starts taking care of itself.”

Since that last-place finish at Mid-Ohio, Gragson has put together a streak of 11 top-10 finishes in the second half of the regular season (13 races). Before his two wins, though, he was points racing, which wasn’t much fun.

Quite simply, it doesn’t fit someone’s style that enjoys being the talk of the town.

Getty Images
Getty Images

“It sucks ass, it’s horrible,” Gragson said. “I can do it, but it’s not who I am. I want to put on a show and be on the highlight reel. I think you just build your brand more that way. No matter how you get into the spotlight, you’re going to grow attention. Any way you can get in the headlines, you’re going to grow attention to yourself.

“I always like to see guys do cool moves on the race track; make a three-wide, four-wide pass and do something where you feel like, ‘Damn, I didn’t think that was going to stick. I don’t know how that guy did that.’ That’s what I try to do, it’s just my style.”

But with consecutive wins just before the regular-season finale at Bristol Motor Speedway, Gragson has jumped up to fourth on the playoff grid with 17 playoff points.

The late-season surge has caught the eye of JR Motorsports co-owner, Dale Earnhardt Jr.

“You can’t count him out,” Earnhardt said to a group of media following his lone Xfinity Series start of the year at Richmond. “I was saying to myself, ‘Man, what’s going on with this kid?’ They do everything they do and they didn’t change anything and they just start winning. When he’s winning — everybody is the same way, I’m the same way — you solve the problem. He might be dangerous with a little confidence.”

And with the current layout of postseason tracks, Gragson should be confident. A season ago, he had top-three finishes in six of the seven playoff races, but bounced out of the playoffs after the Round of 12 because of an early wreck at Kansas Speedway.

Seeing their championship hopes dwindle in front of them a season ago, Elenz knows playoff points could be the difference between contending for the championship at Phoenix and not.

“We had a really good run in the playoffs and we had one bad race and still missed it by just a few points to get to Phoenix,” he said. “Having those playoff points to help get us to Phoenix, I think, is the most important thing we’ve done over the last couple of weeks because we were in a pretty bad spot in playoff points.”

Gragson agrees.

“I think that’s everything,” he said. “We would like to be in a better position, but I feel like we’re going to be alright. I’m confident with ourselves.”

So with the way the year started for the No. 9 team, would it be a tad surprising to get to Phoenix with a chance at the championship?

Or is Gragson among the championship favorites by showing a ton of speed in the waning weeks of the regular season?

“It seems like (Elenz’s teams) always trend in the right direction right around the playoffs,” McReynolds said. “I don’t know if they’re going to be sneaky because they’ve had a way of being able to get the team going pretty strong around this time of year consistently. But three weeks ago, I don’t think anyone would have said Noah is going to sweep the next two races. The consistency is starting to jive and they’re hitting their stride at the right time.”

But even Gragson paused for six seconds when he was asked if he believed the No. 9 team was championship caliber. Then, he went on to score the checkered flag at Richmond.

“With the way it’s gone, results-wise, no,” he said. “With how well I know this team, absolutely, 100%. I know we can do it, so I have the utmost confidence that we can win the championship.”

The playoffs kick off at Gragson’s home track, Las Vegas Motor Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, NBCSN, NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), where he’s never finished worse than sixth in five Xfinity Series starts.

A colossal finish at Bristol Motor Speedway left AJ Allmendinger and Austin Cindric with bent fenders and hurt feelings, but it appears the dust has settled heading into the NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs.

Just days removed from when the pair collided coming to the checkered flag, handing the race victory and regular-season championship to Allmendinger, Cindric indicated they had talked. He says he understands Allmendinger’s stance on the incident.

But that doesn’t mean Cindric will forget it.

“I think it confirmed some things for me as far as the lengths in which he (Allmendinger) would go to in certain racing situations,” Cindric said during Tuesday’s Xfinity Series Playoffs Media Day. “For me, I don’t think it changes how I race. I intend to race for a championship a certain way. I’m not going to marry myself to this comment, but I don’t intend to change that right now.”

RELATED: Meet the playoff field | Xfinity Series standings

For Allmendinger, he knew what he was getting himself into when Cindric came up alongside up out of Turn 4 on that final lap.

“I knew coming to the checkered flag that I was going to get wrecked,” Allmendinger said. “I knew it was going to hurt when I hit the fence and probably get hit by other cars. But I didn’t care. I wanted that (regular season) championship.”

Interestingly enough, both drivers use the same airplane to travel to and from the race track each week, but since Bristol is in close proximity to the Charlotte area, they didn’t this time around.

By the time both drivers hop on the plane and head west for the first Xfinity Series playoff race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (Sat., 7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN, NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), it’ll be time to focus on fighting for a championship and leaving Bristol in the past.

Regardless of their feelings afterward, Cindric says he feels he and Allmendinger still have a “pretty good relationship.”

“I think there’s something to be said about where he’s at in his life and his career how motivated he is,” Cindric said. “I think for anyone that knows him, that’s not much of a surprise. I think he’s hungry as ever. He doesn’t care what anyone else thinks and I think that’s fun because he knows he’s more toward the end than the beginning (of his career) and it’s fun to see him that way.

“At the same time, Bristol sucked for me. Certainly not my favorite experience, but nonetheless, it’s good for the sport.”

Cindric realizes the position Allmendinger currently sits with his career. Allmendinger isn’t making it a secret, either.

“I’ve got nothing to lose,” Allmendinger said. “It’s late in my career. I didn’t expect this. As we saw coming to the checkered flag at Bristol, I’m willing to do whatever it takes. Put my body on the line, risk making a pass, whatever I have to do to win this championship because I’ve got nothing to lose. I’m loving this. I’m going to leave it all out there and run every lap like it’s my last and do everything I have to do, go out there and try to win this championship for myself and Kaulig Racing.”

Aside from his burning desire for Victory Lane at all costs, Allmendinger voiced respect for Cindric and believes the No. 22 Team Penske Ford squad pushes his team to be top notch.

“They’ve been here a long time and won a lot of championships,” Allmendinger said. “They’re the ultimate goal. They have the targets on their backs, and we have to go out there and be better.

“Austin Cindric, he’s the champ,” Allmendinger added. “He’s made me so much better in trying to figure out each weekend, OK, I’ve got to up my game. I’ve got to figure out how to be better for this type of race track. As a whole with Austin and Team Penske, they make us a ton better.”

Cindric also says he doesn’t ignore the strides Allmendinger and his Kaulig team have taken in recent years to rival Penske.

“You look at that race team as a whole the last four or five years, there’s been a lot of progress and a lot of growth within that team,” Cindric said. “I think that’s exciting for the series and there’s obviously something to be said for that and they’re competitive and racing us for wins week in and week out. You definitely can’t shy away from it.”

While the respect is mutual, their mentalities contrast when it comes to the approach of the next six races on the way to the championship finale at Phoenix Raceway.

Cindric looks to take a calm-and-cool path to defending his 2020 title, while Allmendinger is ready to pounce on every opportunity possible to make the Championship 4 in his first full-time Xfinity Series season.

“It definitely shows everybody in the series that even on a day that we don’t win, if you give us a glimmer of hope, we’re gonna take that shot at it and we can make it happen,” Allmendinger said. “That’s how we’re going to be throughout the course of these playoffs. I’ll do what it takes to try to win these races and win this championship.”