Analysis: Denny Hamlin running really well, somehow missing that first 2021 win

Posted on April 23, 2021April 23, 2021 by Terrin Waack

Despite the glaring zero in the win column, Denny Hamlin is annihilating the 2021 leaderboard.

Actually, he’s even dominating select categories in the all-time statistics book through nine races.

The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota pilot not only has the most laps led out of the current NASCAR Cup Series garage, he has led the most laps ever for a driver without a win at this point in the season, topping David Pearson’s mark of 595 in 1975. Hamlin has the most top-five results (eight) out of his competition, and that marks the second most ever, falling only to Cale Yarborough, who had nine in 1974. Hamlin’s five stage wins are the most right now and matches the most all time (stage racing was introduced in 2017). His 434 points has him atop the current standings, with the series’ only two-time winner, Martin Truex Jr., trailing him in second by 81.

TALLADEGA: Weekend schedule | Betting odds | Paints schemes

Hamlin is showing consistency throughout races, too. His average running position this year stands at 4.55 – the only driver running within the top five like that. Truex is the next best at 7.05. Hamlin’s average finish is a 4.22. Joey Logano is next at 8.33.

Out of the 2,594 laps run in 2021, all of which Hamlin has completed, he has been in the top five for 1,977 – that’s 76 percent. His top-10 time turns out to be 90 percent. Both are series-best marks.

That’s good.

No, that’s really good.

And his marks are bound to get even better this Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway (2 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Hamlin has two career wins – 2014 spring and 2020 fall (most recent race) – at the 2.66-mile Alabama track in 30 career starts. Those wins also double as Toyota’s only in the last 24 events. There are six Toyotas entered in Sunday’s field, and that matters because of the superspeedway style of racing that requires teammates and manufactures to work together for success. There are many more Chevrolets (18) and Fords (16). Hamlin has proved he can overcome that deficit.

In fact, Hamlin has won five total and two of the last five superspeedway races, the other track being Daytona International Speedway at 2.5 miles. Between the two venues, he has placed in the top five in the last six races, including fifth at Daytona in this season’s opener where he led a race-high 98 of the 200 laps.

BetMGM has Hamlin as Sunday’s favorite at 13-2 odds.

If Hamlin wins at Talladega, he would mark the series’ ninth different winner in 10 races. In order to do that, he’ll have to turn around his recent late-race luck.

Hamlin has been passed for the final lead in the last two races with 16 or less laps to go until the checkered flag. Alex Bowman took over with 10 remaining at Richmond Raceway last weekend, while Truex did so with 16 left at Martinsville Speedway the week before.

The point is, Hamlin has performed really well this season – but he hasn’t been able to complete the job on track.

Posted on April 23, 2021April 23, 2021 by Staff Report

After a three-race run at short tracks, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway for Sunday’s GEICO 500 (2 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Before enjoying the thrill of high speeds, take a moment to find out the need-to-know details in this week’s 101.

WHO’S ON THE POLE?

Series points leader Denny Hamlin starts on the Busch Pole for the third time this season — still searching for his first trip to Victory Lane in 2021. Joey Logano joins Hamlin on the front row, followed by Martin Truex Jr., William Byron and Alex Bowman rounding out the top five.

Where does your favorite driver line up? See the full lineup and starting grid.

TICKETS, FAN GUIDE

Grandstand tickets for the GEICO 500 are sold out. However, premium packages for a modified garage experience and a new infield drive-in experience are still available for fans who wish to attend. For those who have already purchased tickets, get an early start by looking at the interactive fan guide for safety protocols, scanner rentals and more.

For more information on other special offers and future events, visit the Talladega Superspeedway event site.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

Oddsmakers favor Hamlin to finally get over the winless streak after dazzling performances in nearly every race this season. The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing wheelman tops the chart at 13-2, with rival Logano just off the pace at 9-1. Two-time Talladega winner Ryan Blaney at 10-1 edges out teammate Brad Keselowski and reigning series champion Chase Elliott — both 11-1 — to complete the list of frontrunners.

As fans know, superspeedways tend to produce electric moments from the underdogs. William Byron (20-1), Ryan Newman (30-1) and Erik Jones (40-1) each present intriguing value based on recent performances at the track.

Byron has led a lap in five of six career starts at Talladega and has a pair of consecutive finishes in 11th or better, Newman has five finishes of ninth or better in the last seven races — including two runner-ups — and Erik Jones has finished in the top five in each of the last two races.

Who’s your best bet? See the full list of BetMGM odds for the GEICO 500.

GOODYEAR TIRES

Cup Series teams have seven sets of Goodyear Eagle Speedway Radials for the 188-lap race on the 2.66-mile circuit. The length of the track allows for the possibility of drivers pitting under green without going a lap down.

Last repaved in 2010, the surface has increased its effect on tire wear over time, but the grip is still sustainable over longer runs — meaning two-tire and fuel-only stops should definitely be in play throughout the afternoon.

The minimum recommended inflation is 26 psi for the left side tires, 50 psi for the right front and 48 psi for the right rear.

FORD, TEAM PENSKE DOMINANT AT ‘DEGA

— In the last 11 races at Talladega, a Ford driver has reached Victory Lane nine times.

— During the 2018 race, Stewart-Haas Racing drivers ran 1-2-3-4 for 122 of 162 green flag laps and Aric Almirola won after taking the lead on the final lap.

— Team Penske and Team Penske-related drivers (No. 21) have either won or been passed for the win in six of the last seven Talladega races.

— Blaney led a race-high 63 laps in last year’s spring victory and has won two out of the last three races at Talladega.

Source: Racing Insights

FANTASY LIVE

Join NASCAR Fantasy Live to compete weekly for points and bragging rights. Already signed up? Go ahead and build your lineup for Talladega.

The 2021 Fantasy Live points leaders are Hamlin (434), Truex (353) and Logano (345).

ALSO ON NASCAR.COM

Get additional camera views by logging on to NASCAR Drive, where each week a select number of in-car cameras will be available – as well as a battle cam and an overhead look.

New for this season, NASCAR has partnered with LiveLike to add fan engagement in the NASCAR Mobile App. Log in to the mobile app during the race for polls, quizzes, the cheer meter and more – and see instant results from NASCAR fans like you.

Posted on April 22, 2021April 22, 2021 by Staff Report

Netflix announced Thursday it is teaming up with NASCAR Cup Series driver Bubba Wallace for a documentary series as he competes for the newly formed 23XI Racing team co-owned by Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin.

The series will take viewers behind the scenes of the 2021 NASCAR season through the eyes of Wallace, who has been at the forefront of NASCAR’s efforts to advocate for inclusion and equality in racing.

You know me…I like to keep things real and raw. Pumped to have @netflix capture these moments to share with you guys. 🤘🏾

— Bubba Wallace (@BubbaWallace) April 22, 2021

The production companies are 300 Studios and Boardwalk Pictures. The director is Erik Parker, previously known for directing “L.A. Burning: The Riots 25 Years Later.”

Executive producers include Kevin Liles, Nolan Baynes and Kelly G. Griffin for 300 Studios; Andrew Fried, Dane Lillegard, Jordan Wynn and Sarina Roma for Boardwalk Pictures; and Matt Summers, Tim Clark and Tally Hair for NASCAR.

The release date of the documentary will be announced at a later time.

This docuseries marks NASCAR’s second project with Netflix. The comedy series, “The Crew,” debuted earlier this year, starring Kevin James and featuring cameos from drivers Ryan Blaney, Austin Dillon and Cole Custer.

FROM 2020: Lasting images | Bubba Wallace picking up speed on, off track

Posted on April 22, 2021 by Reid Spencer

No current NASCAR Xfinity Series driver has attained mastery over superspeedways to the extent achieved by Kaulig Racing’s Justin Haley, who will try for his third straight Talladega Superspeedway win in Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300 (4 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Haley, who will start fifth, swept both Talladega races last year. His only other Xfinity Series win came at Daytona International Speedway, where the driver of the No. 11 Chevrolet also scored an unlikely NASCAR Cup Series win in the rain-shortened 2019 summer race.

Haley should have plenty of help at Talladega from teammates AJ Allmendinger and Jeb Burton. As a unit, the Kaulig Racing cars have been the dominant force in Xfinity Series superspeedway racing over the past two years.

“I’m hoping to have the speed at Talladega that we’ve had in the past,” Haley said. “It’s always been one of my favorites, and I’m excited to get back on track with my teammates and working together again to get (team owner) Matt Kaulig more trophies.”

Chevrolets, which have massive strength in numbers (28 of the 40 cars in the field), boast a four-race winning streak at Talladega.

Though Austin Cindric is starting on the pole due to metric qualifying, that’s not necessarily an advantage. In 30 Xfinity Series races at the 2.66-mile track, the No. 1 spot on the grid has produced only three winners: Joe Nemechek in 1998, Tony Stewart in 2008 and Haley in last year’s first race at the superspeedway.

And unlike Haley, Cindric has no teammates — a distinct liability in the draft.

The Ag-Pro 300 is the second Xfinity Dash 4 Cash races of the season. Noah Gragson won the first $100,000 bonus at Martinsville Speedway and will try for two straight at Talladega. The other three eligible Dash 4 Cash drivers are Martinsville winner Josh Berry (Gragson’s JR Motorsports teammate) and Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Daniel Hemric and Brandon Jones.

Posted on April 22, 2021 by Terrin Waack

At just 5 years old, Harrison Burton decided his career goal was to be a NASCAR Cup Series driver.

A decade later, he made his first start in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series. He ran three part-time seasons before his full run in 2019. That same year, at age 18, Burton made his NASCAR Xfinity Series debut. He turned full time there in 2020 and carried that job into this season.

On Sunday, Burton will accomplish his goal and race in Cup’s GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway (2 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN and SiriusXM). He’s 20 years old.

“I’m here,” Burton said Wednesday on Zoom. “Obviously it’s awesome to be in this situation and awesome to have this opportunity. But, you know, that’s not what I’m necessarily satisfied with, if that makes sense. I want to make the most of it. For me, riding around for most of the race, I feel like if I get to the end of the race doing that, I’m not going to have the experience I need to make the moves I need to win the race.”

Odds are this is just the beginning of Burton’s Cup journey. His ride this weekend is a one-off gig with Gaunt Brothers Racing in its No. 96 Toyota. He’ll continue in the Xfinity ranks otherwise, driving his normal No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.

Burton didn’t specifically ask for Talladega as his first Cup attempt, but he welcomed it.

“I don’t know if this is right or not, but I think Jon Gruden always says in football, ‘The best ability is availability,’ ” Burton said. “In racing, I guess it’s the same, right? When the opportunity comes, no matter what track whether it’s a road course, dirt track, oval or whatever, you have to be ready for it.”

And Burton is ready. Even if his opportunity happens to be coming at the 2.66-mile Alabama track known for its high banks and high speed — which inevitably lead to wrecks.

That’s a theme Burton’s father, Jeff Burton, remembers all too well from his Cup days.

“Listen, as mom and dad, it’s going to be a little nerve wracking,” Jeff said. “Obviously Talladega is a nerve-wracking place. Harrison was working with some of his guys a little while ago, watching footage of some old races. I walked in, and hell, I got nervous watching replays and I knew what was going to happen. It’s just a crazy race track. It always has been.”

Harrison has ran it in Xfinity and Trucks. In his two Xfinity starts, he placed 23rd and 32nd (crashed out); he’ll race in Saturday’s event, too. He finished 11th in his sole Truck race.

Since there will be no practice or qualifying due to COVID-19 protocols, the fact Talladega is NASCAR’s longest oval actually could be beneficial for Harrison.

“It creates opportunity to gradually get to know your car and get to know your competition,” Jeff said. “So, just like everything in life, it has pluses and minuses. When I looked at the whole thing, I thought wow, this is actually a good opportunity for him to get some experience in the race without all the pressure.”

Through 40 Cup starts from 1994-2013, Jeff pulled out five top-five and 16 top-10 finishes at Talladega. His average start was 24.1, which turned into a 18.4 average finish.

Harrison is set to fire off 39th in Sunday’s 40-car field.

“It’s exciting for me to be here,” Harrison said. “But my goal since I was 5 years old wasn’t just to be here, right? So, finding a way to make the most of it, get after it and learn as fast as I can is important.”

Posted on April 21, 2021January 19, 2022 by Steve Luvender

Brad Keselowski is known as a superspeedway expert in NASCAR circles, and after winning the GEICO 70 in the eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series in a late-race pass, his status holds true in the sim world, too.

The 2012 NASCAR Cup Series champ passed race-dominant James Davison on a late-race restart as chaos unfolded deep in the pack during the run to the checkered flag in the exhibition race.

The virtual 2.66-mile superspeedway hosted the second race of this year’s Pro Invitational Series Wednesday night and featured a full field of NASCAR Cup Series stars — plus a few special guests — four days before Sunday’s GEICO 500 (2 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN and SiriusXM).

Six-time Talladega winner Dale Earnhardt Jr., FOX Sports broadcaster Clint Bowyer and fan-vote winner Jesse Iwuji joined 36 NASCAR Cup Series regulars for 70 scheduled laps of action on FS1, featuring iRacing’s laser-scanned version of Talladega with as-real-as-it-gets Cup cars.

Keelan Harvick, eight-year-old son of NASCAR champion Kevin Harvick, was also invited to race alongside his dad.

James Davison qualified on pole after a round of single-car qualifying alongside Anthony Alfredo — underdogs by Cup Series standards, but experts when it comes to iRacing.

Rick Ware Racing’s Davison, combined with teammate Garrett Smithley, put their Chevrolets at the front of the pack to open up the evening.

The race’s first caution flew when Austin Dillon and William Byron tangled, snarling Kevin Harvick in the process. Luckily, the drivers were afforded two fast-repair damage resets each, enabling the drivers to continue.

Shortly after, in-race reporter Bowyer went for a spin thanks to a bump-draft gone wrong with Daniel Suarez, who sported a Red Farmer tribute paint scheme for the evening. Despite the available resets, the crash knocked Bowyer out of contention — though he admits he didn’t enter the race with high hopes.

Throughout the intermediate portions of the race, the leaders remained in single-file formation — Davison and Smithley out in front — waiting patiently to make a move until later.

A round of green-flag pit stops — a surprise to some drivers — brought the field to pit road to make it to the finish with enough fuel. Still, Australia’s Davison persisted at the front of the field.

A flurry of cautions bunched up the field with less than 25 laps to go, setting up for a sprint to the finish, pit stops no longer a question.

On each ensuing restart, it didn’t take long for action to take on the familiar side-by-side, ultra-competitive look of any race at Talladega.

Talladega’s famous “Big One” struck not long after, a multi-car crash triggered when Denny Hamlin and Corey LaJoie made contact, tagging Iwuji, Kyle Larson, Matt DiBenedetto, and others.

Intensity ramped up as the lap count dwindled. The caution flew again with less than 10 to go when Larson, Hamlin and Chase Briscoe collided, sending Joey Logano’s car into the air in a manner reminiscent of Jeff Gordon’s crash in last year’s running of the sim race.

Of course, another crash meant another caution — and another restart. This time, six laps from the finish.

Teammates Davison and Smithley struggled to coordinate the restart, putting the brakes on Smithley’s outside lane and breaking up the unstoppable pair. But another caution flew shortly after when Byron and Justin Haley made contact and crashed with Hamlin, Bubba Wallace, Martin Truex Jr. and others, setting up yet another restart — the race’s final.

Keselowski, who’d patiently waited behind Davison in previous runs, was able to quickly make his way to the preferred bottom lane, the veteran faking out the race’s dominant driver.

Keselowski, the 34-time Cup Series race winner, held off a hungry Christopher Bell to cross the finish line first, picking up his first Pro Invitational Series victory.

Bell’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Kyle Busch, surged to third on the last lap, while Timmy Hill and defending race winner Alex Bowman rounded out the top five. Davison came home eighth after leading 61 laps.

Keelan Harvick finished the race — though deep in the field in 38th position.

While no points or money is on the line in the Pro Invitational Series, iRacing will make a $5,000 donation to Keselowski’s Checkered Flag Foundation.

The iRacing Pro Invitational Series was created last year as NASCAR looked for alternative forms of racing after the start of the COVID-19 outbreak. The series returned for 2021 and features a 10-race schedule, with events airing on FOX Sports and NBC Sports.

The next iRacing Pro Invitational Series race is set for May 5 at the virtual Darlington Raceway.

Posted on April 21, 2021April 22, 2021 by Zack Albert

Joey Logano says he has an appetite for superspeedway racing, a sort of fondness that’s bolstered by several positive factors — his talent for it, an adept spotter in veteran TJ Majors, and stout No. 22 Team Penske Fords. When the NASCAR Cup Series reconvenes this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway, he’ll be leaning on all three.

“For those reasons, I feel like we’re always a threat to win. We’re always up there. We always have a shot,” Logano said earlier this week before teeing up the big caveat. “That being said, we’ve been crashing a lot, too. That’s part of it, I guess.”

Logano punctuated that remark with laughter, but he wasn’t exactly yukking it up with teammate Brad Keselowski after their last-lap collision sparked a multicar crash in the most recent superspeedway event, allowing Michael McDowell to dash to victory in the season-opening Daytona 500. The in-house calamity was such that team owner Roger Penske said last month that he planned a face-to-face sitdown with his drivers — Logano, Keselowski and Ryan Blaney — to mend fences and make a pact on the rules of engagement for Sunday’s GEICO 500 (2 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at the high-speed Alabama track.

“I don’t think there’s anything new that will happen,” Penske said in a March 22 video conference, “but I think we just have to make an agreement on just exactly how you want to play ball if you get into that same situation as we had with two of us running as well as we had with a half-mile to go, and then end up with three cars in the trash bucket, but that’s what you have to expect, unfortunately. It wasn’t a good day for us, obviously.”

In a Thursday morning Zoom press conference, Blaney indicated that conversation had occurred between the team owner and his three drivers. The call also included Wood Brothers Racing driver Matt DiBenedetto.

“I wouldn’t say it was awkward,” Blaney said. “Even though I was on the couch watching the end of that race because we wrecked out early, you’re still a part of it. It’s something that we talked about … just trying to find the best way if we are in a spot to where we’re 1-2 coming to the end of this thing, how do we go about that? How do we go about to make sure we do our best to finish 1-2, no matter who wins. I feel like we had a really good conversation between all of us.”

Blaney went on to say the ultimate goal is for all the Penske cars to be lined up and in the best position to win the race at the end. But, it’s difficult for a driver to have that mindset in the heat of the moment when you’re trying to reach Victory Lane, regardless if you’re battling with a teammate.

Good days have been part of Penske’s recent experience at Talladega, where the team’s entries have won nine of the last 18 Cup Series races — a stretch that includes four victories from Keselowski, three from Logano and two by Blaney. Ford has also benefited at the 2.66-mile trioval where teamwork and manufacturer solidarity are crucial, winning 12 of the last 17 events there in a similar span.

That said, the nature of superspeedway racing can alter the best-laid plans of teams and automakers to work together in harmony. On-track decisions made in the thick of the aerodynamic draft can thwart even the most crystalline pre-race strategies in a split second. Those strategies become even more murky in the late going, when team unity can give way to individual goals. Those clouded conditions are what Logano says he’d like to clear up when those pre-Talladega discussions take place.

“As far as who you work with, when you work with them, what you’re supposed to do, I just pray for clarity,” Logano said. “That’s all I want. Just tell me what I can do and what I can’t do, how to work together the best way possible when the gloves drop and when we go for it. Honestly, that has nothing to do with the 100% rule. That is how we win, right? I don’t think I can go out there and win by myself without having allies on the race track. I think probably most everyone can agree with that that’s out there.

“So you have to have some kind of plan of how do you pit together, how do you work the draft together, what’s OK and what’s not OK, and when does that end and does it end. I don’t know. I think this week will be important to get some clarity to those questions.”

MORE: Roger Penske on plans for pre-race talk

Count DiBenedetto among that group pushing Team Penske’s superspeedway mission, as the second-year driver of the tightly affiliated Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 Ford. DiBenedetto said communication across the Penske banner has remained a strong point, noting the chemistry among teammates through a group text and the intensity of the “group study” for superspeedway strategy.

All that, he said, comes with the acknowledgement that Talladega’s brand of racing sometimes scuttles even the best prep work, bending well-established alliances.

“I haven’t made a mistake like that but none of it all works out perfectly,” DiBenedetto says. “You can scope out all these plans and have all this organization and communication but when the green flag drops you can’t predict what lines are moving or what line you are stuck in. It is really freaking stressful.”

Contributing: Chase Wilhelm

Posted on April 21, 2021 by Tadd Haislop

Tyler Rypkema did not head into the NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour season-opener at Martinsville Speedway almost two weeks ago expecting a top-five finish.

But that’s exactly what happened.

Rypkema charged through the field late in the 200-lap race on fresh tires to finish second to Eric Goodale. It marked the 24-year-old Rypkema’s career-best finish.

After four straight top-10 finishes to close out 2020 season, Rypkema’s No. 32 team continues to bring speed to the track in their second full-time season on the Tour.

Tyler Rypkema, driver of the No. 32 Musco / Welcorp Chevrolet, competes during the Virginia Is For Racing Lovers 200 for the Whelen Modified Tour at Martinsville Raceway in Martinsville, Virginia, on April 8, 2021. (Adam Glanzman/NASCAR)

Even though Rypkema had to rally late to finish where he did at Martinsville, he ran second in the only practice session of the day and qualified 10th. There is no doubt about it: Rypkema has improved from the beginning of 2020, when he finished 18th at Pennsylvania’s Jennerstown Speedway.

“We keep gaining on everything and building as a team,” Rypkema said. “We said a few times last year, ‘We probably had a top-five car, just came up short.’ So just to have it all come together and finally get that first top five is huge for everybody involved.

“As a team, we’re just looking to be competitive and really learn. We still have a ton to learn. All we’re looking to do is just finish the race, gain some more respect and gain some more knowledge.”

Rypkema credits crew chief Zach Truesdall for much of that improvement. It was Truesdall’s decision to save a set of tires for the final run at Martinsville.

“It really panned out for us,” Rypkema recalled. “It was huge for all of us to have that outcome and have that good of a run for us. … I’ve always been one that I want to be fast at the end of the race. I don’t want to be backing up. I want to be going forward. That’s how Zach likes it, too.”

Now Rypkema heads north to run the 49th edition of the NAPA Auto Parts Spring Sizzler at Stafford Motor Speedway, where tires almost certainly will play a role in deciding who wins.

MORE SPRING SIZZLER:

“You gotta be there at the end,” Rypkema said. “You gotta be quick at the end. You can’t just be there by luck.”

Like Martinsville, Stafford is a track with plenty of historical significance dating back to the 1950s.

“Obviously, the Spring Sizzler is huge,” Rypkema said. “It dates back all the way to Richie Evans and before him. It’s incredible to see the list of drivers that have won that race. To think that that’s a possibility, that you might someday be on that list, too, is incredible. Everybody wants a Stafford Spring Sizzler trophy.”

Despite the string of strong finishes, Rypkema is keeping expectations cautiously optimistic for the rest of the season.

“Yeah, we had a good run,” he allowed. “It was huge to do that, but, don’t think just because you did that one time, you can do it every race. Prepare yourself. You’re going to have bad races. It’s not the end of the world. You’ll learn from even the bad races.”

Posted on April 21, 2021 by Marcus DiNitto

While some professional bettors look to take advantage of the randomness that results from restrictor plate racing, drafting at 200-plus mph and the crashes that usually ensue, other sharps believe it is too difficult to find an edge and stay away from superspeedways completely.

For public bettors, the buzz around Talladega and Daytona, plus the long odds available on top drivers in races such as Sunday’s GEICO 500, are too enticing to ignore.

Zack White, a pro bettor who specializes in NASCAR, has long avoided superspeedways and in recent seasons has pared down the number of races he bets to only about half the Cup schedule, tracks “where I’m still finding some edges,” he said. “I used to try to bet just about every race, maybe save the superspeedways.”

“The bookmakers know this, too, but it’s just a super crapshoot until the last few laps,” White said of superspeedway races. “It’d be really rare to go into a Talladega or a Daytona week and see anybody at +150 or anything around that range (in a driver vs. driver matchup prop). The bookmakers know that it’s fairly random. I’m sure a few people out there try to piece something together that they think is a winning strategy at these tracks, but I just choose not to.”

Sharp NASCAR bettor Blake Phillips agrees that the randomness of superspeedways makes it difficult to predict outcomes, but from his perspective, since oddsmakers are up against the same challenge, opportunity is borne from this randomness.

“The normal stuff that you would think is correlated with a win or at least finishing in a good position doesn’t necessarily apply as much in these kinds of races,” Phillips said. “First off, you have the issue of drafting, which changes the equation a little bit. But more importantly, you’re practically guaranteed a giant wreck that’s going to wipe out a big percentage of the drivers.

“Talladega and Daytona are tracks where I have a different approach that’s a lot less based on fundamental handicapping and a lot more looking at the offerings available and seeing where I feel there’s too heavy of a lean in a race with low predictability.”

That strategy translates into giving serious consideration to underdogs in head-to-head and group matchups, manufacturer to win and other props.

Superspeedway randomness also means longer odds in the outright market than we see for most races. At SuperBook USA in Las Vegas, no driver opened with single-digit odds to win the GEICO 500, as Denny Hamlin was made the 10/1 favorite. Nine drivers are listed at less than 20/1 odds, and six more opened at exactly 20/1.

Conversely, for last week’s race in Richmond, the SuperBook offered six drivers in single digits and a total of 11 at 20/1 or less.

“Talladega is much more open than Richmond,” said Ed Salmons, vice president of risk management at the SuperBook. “At Talladega, if you got six drivers against the field, the field would be a huge favorite.”

The chance to bet drivers like Chase Elliott at 12/1 odds, Brad Keselowski at 14/1 or Martin Truex Jr. 20/1 doesn’t come around often, and these opportunities motivate casual bettors. Handle tends to pick up for Talladega, according to Salmons.

“People always like this race,” he said. “You get good odds on everyone, no matter who you bet.”

Marcus DiNitto is a writer and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has been covering sports for nearly two-and-a-half decades and sports betting for more than 10 years. His first NASCAR betting experience was in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his matchup picks. Read his articles and follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.

Posted on April 21, 2021April 22, 2021 by Staff Report

See where your favorite driver will pit for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway (2 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).