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BACK TO GALLERIES

Fantasy Fastlane: STP 500

By RJ Kraft | Published: March 28, 2017 16
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BACK TO GALLERIES

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Cindy Gonzalez/NDM


Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top drivers as well as three sleepers and three value plays based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup for this week.

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Matt Kenseth

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Learn more about Kenseth
Fantasy Live price: $25.25
Fastlane forecast: Before his move to Gibbs, this wasn't exactly a Kenseth stronghold – five top-six finishes in 26 starts. With JGR, the 2003 champion has five top-six finishes in eight starts, while leading laps in all but one race. The recent stats favor Kenseth this weekend.

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Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Learn more about Hamlin
Fantasy Live price: $25.50
Fastlane forecast: The Virginia native has long been strong at Martinsville. Hamlin has five wins here to go with the second-most laps led (1,363) and second-best average finish (9.2) among active drivers. Only Jimmie Johnson has been better here among Sunday's field.

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Jimmie Johnson

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Learn more about Johnson
Fantasy Live price: $26.25
Fastlane forecast: The reigning series champion's 2017 has started slow, but this is the track that should tell all. Johnson is tops among active drivers at Martinsville in wins (9), laps led (2,838), average finish (7.3) and driver rating (117.7). JJ is the gold standard here.

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Kyle Busch

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Learn more about Kyle Busch
Fantasy Live price: $26.75
Fastlane forecast: The defending race winner led 352 laps last spring and has three straight top-five finishes here. With top fives (11) in nearly half his starts (23) and the best average finish (7.2) among active drivers over the past six races, a repeat sure seems possible.

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Brad Keselowski

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Learn more about Keselowski
Fantasy Live price: $27.00
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has come tauntingly close to a grandfather clock win in recent years with two runner-up finishes in the past four races. The 2 team has been on it to start the season and hasn't missed a beat.

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Martin Truex Jr.

Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 Toyota
Learn more about Truex
Fantasy Live price: $27.00
Fastlane forecast: Truex has three top-seven finishes and led 197 laps in his last four starts at Martinsville. In his previous 18 starts here, he had just two top-seven finishes and led one lap. Cole Pearn and company have found something that makes Truex a player.

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Kevin Harvick

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Learn more about Harvick
Fantasy Live price: $27.25
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has one win here but just three top-five finishes in 31 starts to go with his third-worst average finish (16.0) among active tracks. On the plus side, he has led 264 laps over the past four races here -- but there is still a bit better value to be had elsewhere.

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Kyle Larson

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Learn more about Larson
Fantasy Live price: $27.75
Fastlane forecast: The Auto Club winner is blistering hot with an average finish of 1.75 in his last four races. Martinsville will be a test for him – one top 10 in six starts. The stats indicate this is the week he cools down, but if you have him at a discount, hold onto him.

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Joey Logano

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Learn more about Logano
Fantasy Live price: $28.00
Fastlane forecast: Logano has five straight front row starts at Martinsville – leading 417 laps in that stretch. The Penske driver has been a model of consistency out of the gate in 2017 and there is no reason to think that won't continue at 'The Paperclip.'

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SLEEPER PICK: Jamie McMurray

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Learn more about McMurray
Fantasy Live price: $21.50
Fastlane forecast: CGR is running strong (see Larson), and McMurray has been stout with three top 10s to start 2017. In his last eight starts at the Virginia track, McMurray has five top 10s – making him a stealth play.

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SLEEPER PICK: Clint Bowyer

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Learn more about Bowyer
Fantasy Live price: $17.00
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer had a stretch of six straight top 10s at Martinsville from 2012 to 2014. Fresh off a third-place run, we expect the form of the years referenced above to show up and contend for a win.

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SLEEPER PICK: AJ Allmendinger

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Learn more about Allmendinger
Fantasy Live price: $15.75
Fastlane forecast: The No. 47 team has been in a post-penalty funk, but this is where 'Dinger should turn it around. He has five top-11 finishes in his last six starts at Martinsville, including a runner-up finish last spring.

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VALUE PLAY: Aric Almirola

Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Ford
Learn more about Almirola
Fantasy Live price: $12.75
Fastlane forecast: Almirola has been a place differential machine in 2017 – averaging +10.2 in gains from the start of the race to the finish. Obviously, that means he isn't qualifying well, but he makes up for it on race day.

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VALUE PLAY: Michael McDowell

Leavine Family Racing, No. 95 Chevrolet
Learn more about McDowell
Fantasy Live price: $10.50
Fastlane forecast: McDowell is not known for his short-track abilities, but he has posted double-digit place differential gains in two of his last four starts here. This value play is a little more under the radar but worth it.

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VALUE PLAY: Landon Cassill

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Learn more about Cassill
Fantasy Live price: $8.00
Fastlane forecast: Cassill's last six starts at Martinsville has seen him post positive place differentials – an average of +8 spots gained from start to finish over that stretch. Well worth the play this weekend.
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