Ahead of Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoff race at Texas Motor Speedway, the second race in the Round of 8, we’ll analyze the four drivers who find themselves below the cutline. First up is Aric Almirola, who sits eighth in the standings.
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Points below cutoff: 50
Reason for optimism at Texas: The No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing team has exhibited speed in nearly every race on 1.5-mile tracks this season and there is no reason to think that won’t again be the case Sunday.
Reason for pessimism at Texas: Although Almirola and his team have been among the fastest on 1.5-mile speedways they’ve been unable to parlay that into corresponding finishes. His best result in eight such races this season is a sixth in the playoff opener at Las Vegas. That’s not going to cut in a round where Almirola absolutely needs a win to ensure advancement.
Reason for optimism at Phoenix: There are similar characteristics between Phoenix and New Hampshire, with both being flat, 1-mile ovals featuring sweeping corners. This is encouraging for Almirola, who nearly won at New Hampshire in July until a slow pit stop and poor restart led him to a third-place finish.
Reason for pessimism at Phoenix: Despite the similarities there are no assurances that what Almirola accomplished at New Hampshire will carry over to Phoenix. And it’s worth noting as good as he was on that afternoon, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick were equally strong.
Outlook: It’s been a terrific season and Almirola has made it further in the playoffs than many expected. He has a sizable challenge ahead of him, however. And if his Cinderella postseason run is to continue he’ll need a win in the Round of 8. That’s a big ask.