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Fantasy Fastlane: 2019 Toyota/Save Mart 350
By RJ Kraft | Published: June 21, 2019 17
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NASCAR DIgital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays, sleepers and plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Westgate Sports Book.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: Harvick won this race in 2017, has four straight top-six finishes and the most points at Sonoma in that stretch. A no-brainer play right? Well, you may be sacrificing stage points as he has yet to earn any here. For me, I'll take him as a race winner pick but save a use.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: Harvick won this race in 2017, has four straight top-six finishes and the most points at Sonoma in that stretch. A no-brainer play right? Well, you may be sacrificing stage points as he has yet to earn any here. For me, I'll take him as a race winner pick but save a use.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has two Sonoma wins in his career and owns the third-most points in the past four races. In the stage point era, Busch has not scored any stage points at Sonoma. Fantasy players need to consider that in terms of bang for your buck with a use.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has two Sonoma wins in his career and owns the third-most points in the past four races. In the stage point era, Busch has not scored any stage points at Sonoma. Fantasy players need to consider that in terms of bang for your buck with a use.
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Stacy Revere | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex is the defending race winner and has won two of the past six races held at Sonoma. The addition of the carousel to the course is going to affect strategy, but the past success here screams garage play especially if you've slow played MTJ.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex is the defending race winner and has won two of the past six races held at Sonoma. The addition of the carousel to the course is going to affect strategy, but the past success here screams garage play especially if you've slow played MTJ.
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Streeter Lecka | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last three Sonoma races, Hamlin -- not Harvick or Kyle Busch -- has the most points at the California road course. After seven top 10s in the first nine races of 2019, he has just one in the past six. This seems like the spot for a turnaround.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last three Sonoma races, Hamlin -- not Harvick or Kyle Busch -- has the most points at the California road course. After seven top 10s in the first nine races of 2019, he has just one in the past six. This seems like the spot for a turnaround.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Looking for a 2019 race winner that will likely go after stage points? This is your guy as evidenced by his 16 stage points at Sonoma last year and his aggressiveness in scoring stage points at Pocono -- where he finished second a few weeks back.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Looking for a 2019 race winner that will likely go after stage points? This is your guy as evidenced by his 16 stage points at Sonoma last year and his aggressiveness in scoring stage points at Pocono -- where he finished second a few weeks back.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott won at Watkins Glen last summer and has been strong at Sonoma -- two top-eight finishes and the third-most points in the last two races. He went heavy on stage points last year since he had no win. Wouldn't expect the same, but he'll contend.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott won at Watkins Glen last summer and has been strong at Sonoma -- two top-eight finishes and the third-most points in the last two races. He went heavy on stage points last year since he had no win. Wouldn't expect the same, but he'll contend.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Among drivers in Sunday's field, Bowyer has the best average finish (10.1), most top-five finishes (eight) and won here in 2012. The blemish is no stage points for him here, but given his standings position -- 12th -- he could/should play for points.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Among drivers in Sunday's field, Bowyer has the best average finish (10.1), most top-five finishes (eight) and won here in 2012. The blemish is no stage points for him here, but given his standings position -- 12th -- he could/should play for points.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: If Bowyer is 1A, Busch is 1B for Sonoma. His seven top-five finishes at Sonoma are second-best among drivers in Sunday's field. He won here in 2011 and has finished outside the top 10 just once in the past eight races at the road course.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: If Bowyer is 1A, Busch is 1B for Sonoma. His seven top-five finishes at Sonoma are second-best among drivers in Sunday's field. He won here in 2011 and has finished outside the top 10 just once in the past eight races at the road course.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Fantasy owners take note, the past two years at Sonoma Johnson has chased stage points. In 2017, he scored a stage win; in 2018, he tied for the most stage points at this track.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Fantasy owners take note, the past two years at Sonoma Johnson has chased stage points. In 2017, he scored a stage win; in 2018, he tied for the most stage points at this track.
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SLEEPER PICK: Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman finished ninth here last year and scored 32 points. The real value here is his tendency to rack up stage points -- he now has the eighth-most in '19 -- given his standings spot he should play for points.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman finished ninth here last year and scored 32 points. The real value here is his tendency to rack up stage points -- he now has the eighth-most in '19 -- given his standings spot he should play for points.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Daniel Suarez | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Suarez sits 13th in the point standings and is a prime example of a driver that should optimize for stage points. He scored three here last year, but he has 48 this year -- good for 15th in the series.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Suarez sits 13th in the point standings and is a prime example of a driver that should optimize for stage points. He scored three here last year, but he has 48 this year -- good for 15th in the series.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Road-course racing is about grinding and that's Newman trademark. He scored six stage points here last year and has earned the ninth-most points at Sonoma in the past five races there.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Road-course racing is about grinding and that's Newman trademark. He scored six stage points here last year and has earned the ninth-most points at Sonoma in the past five races there.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 37 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher scored 29 points here last year -- including four stage points -- in a 12th-place finish. If Pocono was any indication -- it strategically plays like a road race -- this team will take stage points.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 37 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher scored 29 points here last year -- including four stage points -- in a 12th-place finish. If Pocono was any indication -- it strategically plays like a road race -- this team will take stage points.
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STAY AWAY FROM: Bubba Wallace | View stats
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 2000-1
Fastlane forecast: Road racing at the Cup level is something that hasn't agreed with Bubba thus far. He finished 29th at Sonoma and finished no higher than 25th in the series' three road races last season.
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 2000-1
Fastlane forecast: Road racing at the Cup level is something that hasn't agreed with Bubba thus far. He finished 29th at Sonoma and finished no higher than 25th in the series' three road races last season.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has one top 10 in three Sonoma starts and two finishes outside the top 20. Besides the lack of success, I like YRB for a ton of tracks coming up -- Chicago, Loudon, Pocono and Michigan.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has one top 10 in three Sonoma starts and two finishes outside the top 20. Besides the lack of success, I like YRB for a ton of tracks coming up -- Chicago, Loudon, Pocono and Michigan.
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David Becker | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, Chris Buescher; Garage: Martin Truex Jr. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece on this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.