Playoff Watch 2019: Analyzing postseason picture post-Michigan

From now until the Sept. 8 regular-season finale at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, NASCAR.com will analyze the playoff picture on Mondays. Here's how the postseason looks through 23 regular-season races (out of 26) after Kevin Harvick's win at Michigan International Speedway and before the trip to Bristol Motor Speedway. A few reminders:

-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.

-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.

-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.

-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending with one point for the 10th-place finisher.

Missing the cut

Daniel Suarez made the biggest gain among those out of the playoff picture. He was 23 below the cutoff line headling into Michigan, a number he trimmed to six after a top-five finish. Jimmie Johnson, meanwhile, dropped to 12 points below the final playoff spot.

16. Ryan Newman, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 0

Note: Newman just won't go away in this playoff chase. Being 16 points above the cutline heading into Bristol? Put his odds at better than 50 percent to make the NASCAR Playoffs.

15. Clint Bowyer, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 0

Note: Just a miserable weekend for Bowyer at Michigan. Competing for a top finish and with bubble driver Jimmie Johnson hampered after an early smack of the wall, Bowyer was involved in a wreck and finished 37th. He's just six points above teammate Daniel Suarez for the final spot.

14. Erik Jones, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 0

Note: Jones said he's going to go get a win at Bristol. Would you really be surprised? The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been on a tear this summer.

13. Aric Almirola, 2,001 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 1

Note: Almirola dropped two positions in the regular-season standings, the result of which eliminated two playoff points and moved him from 10th to 13th in the playoff standings.

12. William Byron, 2,001 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 1

Note: Byron finished eighth and earned nine stage points. His 38 points earned for the race were fifth most.

11. Kyle Larson, 2,003 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 3

Note: A surprise top-five finish at Michigan sets Larson up for bigger things before the playoffs begin.

10. Ryan Blaney, 2,004 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 2

Note: Blaney drove with aggression and precision at Michigan, two traits he'll need at Bristol.

9. Alex Bowman, 2,006 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Chicagoland)

Stage wins: 0

Note: Bowman jumped to 10th place in the regular-season standings, which gives him an extra playoff point.

8. Kurt Busch, 2,009 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Kentucky)

Stage wins: 1

Note: Count Busch among the drivers to show some real speed at Michigan -- and among those who ran out of fuel late.

7. Chase Elliott, 2,018 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Talladega, Watkins Glen)

Stage wins: 4

Note: Elliott is now four points behind Kevin Harvick after the Stewart-Haas Racing driver's second win of the season.

6. Kevin Harvick, 2,022 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (New Hampshire, Michigan-2)

Stage wins: 4

Note: Harvick is the first driver in a group of four separated by less than five points -- meaning another win would vault him over those other three drivers.

5. Brad Keselowski, 2,024 points

Qualified via: 3 wins (Atlanta, Martinsville, Kansas)

Stage wins: 4

Note: The hometown win was agonizingly close for Keselowski, who still salvaged some points after a tire went down.

4. Denny Hamlin, 2,025 points

Qualified via: 3 wins (Daytona 500, Texas, Pocono-2)

Stage wins: 3

Note: Hamlin had a quote about finishing second "again." It was his second runner-up finish in four races and his fifth consecutive top five.

3. Joey Logano, 2,027 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Las Vegas, Michigan)

Stage wins: 7

Note: Logano lost more ground to Kyle Busch in the race to be the Regular Season Champion.

2. Martin Truex Jr., 2,029 points

Qualified via: 4 wins (Richmond, Dover, Coca-Cola 600, Sonoma)

Stage wins: 3

Note: No win, but the No. 19 camp earned the most points on the day with 52.

1. Kyle Busch, 2,044 points

Qualified via: 4 wins (Phoenix, Auto Club, Bristol-1, Pocono-1)

Stage wins: 9

Note: And just like that, Busch is the overwhelming top seed in the NASCAR Playoffs. He added yet another playoff point by winning his ninth stage.