Denny Hamlin is on the pole for Sunday’s Drydene 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Is the Joe Gibbs Racing driver, who has yet to win at Dover, worthy of a spot on your roster? How should you navigate the playoff game format? We’ve dissected the numbers to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration.
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RJ Kraft’s Fantasy Live lineup for race day at Dover:
Playoff driver 1: Martin Truex Jr.
Playoff driver 2: Kevin Harvick
Non-playoff driver 1: Jimmie Johnson
Non-playoff driver 2: Kurt Busch
Garage: Kyle Larson
RELATED: Odds for Dover | Lap averages | Weekend preview
Analysis: Truex and Harvick have been two of the best cars at Dover in recent years. The No. 19 is the most recent Dover winner and the No. 4 has one of the best –if not the best — long run car for Sunday’s race. Both are starting inside the top four, so they are locked in. For the garage, I debated Larson verses Chase Elliott. Larson has been faster across the lap averages by a good bit this weekend but Elliott’s Dover history is stronger. I don’t feel great about leaving a driver with six top fives in seven Dover starts on the bench but that is what I am doing with the Hendrick Motorsports driver.
For the non-playoff picks, I am taking Johnson for one spot. He is starting 11th, but has been the best long-run car among all non-playoff drivers and he’s won here 11 times — a track record. For the other non-playoff spot, I debated Almirola, Erik Jones and Kurt Busch. All three qualified inside the top 10 but I didn’t love Jones’ lap averages. Busch and Almirola were pretty close on the 15- and 20-lap board, so I am giving a slight nod to the 2004 champion because I like his recent Dover stats a bit better.
For the bonus picks, I am taking Larson to win Stage 1 and Harvick the rest of the way with Toyota as the manufacturer as a safeguard against a strong Truex day or if Hamlin nabs the win from the pole in his 500th start.
Each week in this space, we’ll also highlight two Props Challenge items for players.
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1. Kyle Larson has an 8.0 average finish at Dover. Does he finish in the top 10 on Sunday? YES, on this prop. Larson has qualified in the top five six times at Dover and only finished outside the top 10 once. He lines up second on Sunday and the 1-mile track is one of his best on the circuit.
2. O/U 1.5 drivers lead at least 125 laps. The over has been hit twice in the past five Dover races including the spring race this year. The stages are laid out as 120-120-160. I think two drivers will lead at least 100 — that has happened four times in the past five races — but I’m not as convinced that two will hit over 125 laps led. This is a gut call and I’ll take the UNDER.