Entering the weekend, many industry insiders believed the same drivers who ran well earlier in the year at Phoenix Raceway, Richmond Raceway and World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway would stand out at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Team Penske was an outlier, however, with none of its cars making the final round of qualifying. On the flip side, Kurt Busch found speed he hasn’t had in recent years at the “Magic Mile” and has therefore soared up my fantasy board.
Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Martin Truex Jr.
Starter 2: Ryan Blaney
Starter 3: Kevin Harvick
Starter 4: Kurt Busch
Starter 5: Christopher Bell
Garage pick: Joey Logano
NEXT IN LINE: Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace, Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson
RELATED: Complete New Hampshire weekend results | Betting odds
RISING: Kurt Busch’s speed at Gateway seems to have correlated over to New Hampshire in Saturday’s qualifying session at New Hampshire, as the No. 45 car will start third on Sunday. As he put it, he found a unicorn prancing across Turns 1 and 2 of his first round run, which is reasonable to think due to his lack of success recently at the “Magic Mile.”
Chase Elliott admitted Saturday morning he has struggled at finding a feel for New Hampshire since joining the Cup Series in 2016. But his No. 9 Chevrolet was fast in practice (sixth) and will start on the front row for the race. Odds are, Elliott is one of your most-used drivers. If that’s the case, save him for one of the final six regular-season races.
FALLING: To many betting websites, Ryan Blaney is listed as the favorite for Sunday’s race. However, the No. 12 car missed the final round of qualifying – as did his two Team Penske teammates – and will start 11th. Blaney told the media that he was surprised by the lack of speed and how far off his car was. But looking at Gateway and recent flat tracks, Blaney should be in your lineup.
Speaking of Team Penske, Joey Logano was the quickest car on paper at Gateway. He will make up Row 6 with Blaney for the green flag, as he qualified 12th. More concerning is the No. 22 car was 24th in practice, though tied for the most laps run with 29.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
Ryan Blaney vs. Chase Elliott: Ah, two besties fighting it out in fantasy. Based on recent success at New Hampshire, Blaney would be the choice this weekend. But with Elliott having his best qualifying effort ever at the 1.058-mile track, and bettering the No. 12 car in practice, theories would suggest picking Elliott. Tough selection, but don’t count out the Fords. My choice, as my lineup states, is Blaney.
Alex Bowman vs. William Byron: As noted in Fantasy Fastlane earlier this week, both of these drivers have struggled in the past at New Hampshire. However, Byron was quickest in practice and will start sixth while Bowman lines up in 27th. Byron is the clear favorite in this teammate battle, as his results since Martinsville Speedway isn’t a true indicator of the speed the No. 24 car has shown.
Ross Chastain vs. Denny Hamlin: We love igniting fuel to this flame, don’t we? Chastain’s 18th-place qualifying position is among his worst of the 2022 season, though Hamlin’s lap wasn’t much better in 14th. Just on experience alone, the No. 11 car gets the advantage, as Hamlin is one of the most successful drivers ever at New Hampshire with three victories.
Aric Almirola vs. Austin Cindric: Almirola enters the weekend as the defending winner at New Hampshire, which was arguably the biggest upset in the 2021 Cup season. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2018 – and even dating back to his days at Richard Petty Motorsports – Almirola has a knack for running well on small, flat tracks. Cindric, meanwhile, will start 28th.