Predicting every 2023 Cup Series Playoffs race winner

The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs begin this weekend at Darlington Raceway for the Cook Out Southern 500 (Sun., 6 p.m. ET, USA, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

After NASCAR.com attempted to predict the 2023 season’s entirety earlier this year, it is time to dust off the crystal ball and attempt to predict the winner of each playoff race once more, with John Crane and Cameron Richardson leading the way. 

Darlington

Original pick: Joey Logano
Cameron's pick: Denny Hamlin

Why: After a heartbreaking elimination from the playoffs last year due to a once-in-a-lifetime move, Hamlin will want to control his own destiny with wins, and the Southern 500 has become a Hamlin staple — No. 11 has three victories in the marquee event (2010, 2017, 2021). He finished first and second in the last two Darlington playoff races as well, so expect Hamlin to be in contention for another checkered flag at "The Track Too Tough to Tame." 

Kansas 

Original pick: Denny Hamlin 
John's pick: Kyle Larson

Why: There’s no doubt the No. 5 came close to winning at Kansas in May. So close that a little more grip in the Hendrick Motorsports Chevy might’ve been all the difference in Larson holding off a surging Hamlin, who took advantage of the circumstance and claimed the AdventHealth 400 victory. Expect a sequel between the two playoff drivers, with Larson prevailing this time to win his second Cup Series race at the 1.5-miler. 

Bristol Night Race

Original pick: Kyle Larson
Cameron's pick: Brad Keselowski

Why: Last year's Bristol Night Race served as the prologue to RFK's resurgence in the Cup Series. Keselowski and Chris Buescher led 278 of the 500-lap event, which culminated in a resounding victory for Buescher. This year, I expect Keselowski to have a chip on his shoulder to get his first win with the team, and if it wasn't for a mechanical issue at Bristol last year, it would've been Keselowski scoring the first win in the RFK era. 

Texas 

Original pick: Tyler Reddick 
John's pick: Kevin Harvick 

Why: While it is unknown whether Harvick will still be in the fight for his second career Cup Series title by the Round of 12 opener at Texas, there is no denying the 47-year-old driver has shown out there — Harvick’s 24 top-10 finishes at the track in 38 races lead all former and current drivers. In what could be one of his final opportunities to find Victory Lane before retirement, expect the No. 4 Ford to make it career win No. 4 in Fort Worth. 

Talladega

Original pick: Erik Jones
Cameron's pick: Kyle Busch

Why: An overlooked stat so far this season as been Kyle Busch's prowess on superspeedways. Maybe it shouldn't be a surprise, given RCR's well-known history at tracks like Daytona and Talladega, but Busch isn't one of the first to instantly come to mind when you think of the current crop of superspeedway stars. This season, Busch was on the brink of a Daytona 500 victory before getting clipped and wrecking in the final-lap incident, he finished inside the top 10 in both Atlanta races, won the spring race at Talladega and recently finished seventh in the regular-season finale at Daytona. I'd mark down Busch to become the first driver to sweep Talladega since Jeff Gordon in 2007. 

Charlotte Roval 

Original pick: Alex Bowman 
John's pick: Chris Buescher 

Why: An 11th-place finish at the Indianapolis Road Course in August might have snapped a rather lengthy road-course top-10 streak for the No. 17 RFK Ford, but if anything else, it was just the right excuse for Buescher to start a new one. Finishing seventh at Watkins Glen was a start, and the trend will continue here, where Buescher has finished third (2021) and sixth (2022) in each of the last two contests on Charlotte’s road layout. 

Las Vegas

Original pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Cameron's pick: Denny Hamlin

Why: As mentioned in the Darlington slide, a move you'll only see once in your life is what eliminated Hamlin from a Championship 4 appearance in 2022. Hamlin can put aside any doubt of chasing a title at Phoenix with a win to open the semifinal round. He only has one win at the 1.5-mile Nevada oval, but don't be surprised to see Hamlin in Victory Lane and maybe dominate the Round of 8. 

Homestead-Miami 

Original pick: Tyler Reddick 
John's pick: Tyler Reddick 

Why: It might be somewhat bold to stick with my original prediction from February, but let me explain. If recent track record is any indicator, then Reddick has shown a knack for cranking it up a notch when the playoff stretch begins to wind down. After all, Reddick won at Texas and finished inside the top 10 at Las Vegas and the Roval in 2022, all leading up to the Homestead-Miami date. And while Reddick eventually wrecked out of last year’s event, he still holds two career top-five finishes at the track. That still has to count for something. 

Martinsville

Original pick: Joey Logano
Cameron's pick: Martin Truex Jr.

Why: Truex has been the best driver all of 2023, and it makes all the sense for him to flash his short-track flare with a home run before seeking championship No. 2 at Phoenix. I'm expecting Truex to be locked in on points by the time the penultimate race of the year arrives so that the No. 19 team can focus on getting to Victory Lane to assert themselves as the favorite for Phoenix. 

Phoenix

Original pick: Chase Elliott
Cameron's pick: Martin Truex Jr.

Why: A prior weekend's win at Martinsville all but solidifies that Truex establishes himself as an all-time great with a victory and his second Cup Series championship at Phoenix. There may have been doubt that Truex could ever reach the highs of 2017 again, but through 2023 so far, he's shown he could still be at the top of the Cup echelon, and he'll back up a masterclass regular season with a title-crowning postseason run. 

Phoenix

Original pick: Chase Elliott
John's pick: William Byron

Why: Starting the season strong has always been Byron’s strength, but finishing that way has been an obstacle. Not in 2023, though. This season has shown significant growth for the No. 24 driver. That growth will be illustrated again when Byron finds Victory Lane for the second time at Phoenix this year. Except this time, the winning occasion will net the Bill France Cup. Consider it a successful season from start to finish for the 25-year-old.