Fantasy Fastlane: Bubble drivers will step up at Martinsville

It all comes down to the Round of 8 elimination race at Martinsville Speedway. Throw in the fact that Goodyear will debut a new tire compound and this could be an exciting weekend. Four of the six drivers who have yet to clinch a spot in this year's Championship 4 have combined to win all five Next Gen races at Martinsville. Hendrick Motorsports dominated the spring event, making a clean sweep of the podium.

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MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 8-1

Last year, Byron entered the penultimate race of the season in a similar position, not having clinched a spot in the Championship 4. The No. 24 team had a meltdown, but Byron scored enough points to advance. Now, he sits a mere seven points above the elimination line, so he doesn't have nearly as big of a buffer as in 2023. After claiming the checkered flag in the spring race, Byron is the only driver to have multiple wins in the Next Gen era at Martinsville.

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 6-1

Had Homestead been a couple hundred yards shorter, Blaney would have entered this weekend stress-free. Instead, he's in a must-win scenario, 38 points below the elimination line. The good news for Blaney fans is he's among the series' best at Martinsville, winning this race last year. Blaney hasn't finished worse than 11th in the last 11 Martinsville races, earning eight top-five finishes in that timeframe. He will be a threat to win this weekend.

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 4-1

More than 3,000 days have passed since Hamlin last won a Martinsville grandfather clock, but he's been close on many occasions. With five victories, Hamlin is the active wins leader at Martinsville, and he's led 1,184 laps at the famed paperclip since winning last. The No. 11 team particularly rises to the front in the playoff race, leading north of 100 laps in each of the last three years.

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 4-1

With how much Larson despised going to Martinsville early in his career, I never thought I'd list him as a driver you must start here. But the numbers don't lie, and since he joined HMS, he's become among the best in the series at Martinsville with five top-10 finishes -- including a win last year -- in seven starts. The series' 2024 wins leader needs to be near perfect this weekend to erase a seven-point deficit to his teammate Byron. A second Martinsville grandfather clock would solve all his problems.

SLEEPER PICK:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 28-1

Martinsville will always have a soft spot for Wallace, scoring his first Craftsman Truck Series win at the half-mile venue in 2013. It's been among his favorite tracks on the schedule for years, and his performance continues to improve. He has three top-10 finishes in the last four Martinsville races, including a fourth-place result in April. Wallace also participated in a recent tire test at Martinsville.

SLEEPER PICK:

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford

Odds: 22-1

Only three drivers have earned top-10 finishes in all five Next Gen races at Martinsville and Briscoe is on the list, along with Blaney and Joey Logano (10 straight top 10s). Stewart-Haas Racing has excelled on shorter, flat tracks in recent years, highlighted by wins from Briscoe, Kevin Harvick and Aric Almirola. Don't be surprised if Briscoe is vying for a top five this weekend, since he has two of them here in the last three races.

SLEEPER PICK:

Josh Berry | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 35-1

Brutal does not even begin to describe the last few months for Berry, as his 11th-place finish at Homestead was the first time he cracked the top 20 since Richmond in early August. Berry was put on the map by being a standout short-track competitor and we touted SHR's success on flatter tracks. The primary concern here is Harvick struggled mightily in his last handful of seasons at Martinsville.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 20-1

It's not hyperbolic to state that Reddick put together one of the best final laps in Cup Series history last weekend at Homestead, passing two cars and still running more than a half-second faster than the second-best car. Good thing for him, too, because he didn't want to have his season come down to Martinsville, a place he's struggled at in the past. He has two top-10 finishes in nine starts -- placed a career-best seventh in the spring -- with an average finish of 19.3.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 28-1

At one time, Keselowski mastered Martinsville, placing inside the top 10 in 10 consecutive races, spanning from 2016 to 2020. Since then, he's been average at best. Sure, he crossed the finish line inside the top 10 in this race in 2022, but he was later disqualified. The record book shows that the two-time Martinsville winner has a best finish of 24th in the last four races here. Then, think of the last time the series visited a short track at Bristol and the No. 6 finished 26th.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 28-1

You can never count Busch out at any race track, but since joining RCR, he’s been a nonfactor at Martinsville with an average finish of 21.3. And with the heightened stakes at Phoenix, this might be his last chance of extending his record streak to 20 straight years with a victory.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. Denny Hamlin

These JGR teammates are on opposite ends of the spectrum entering the elimination race. Bell needs a solid, quiet run to advance. Meanwhile, Hamlin will be aggressive, as he still can mathematically point his way through to the Championship 4. Bell is a recent Martinsville winner, scoring a walk-off victory in 2022, but Hamlin is the pick because he defines consistency here, with an average finish of 10.2 spanning 37 starts.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Larson vs. William Byron

Oh, how interesting it would be to be a fly on the wall in HMS team meetings this week. The two powerhouse drivers are separated by just seven points, and if we're basing it off the spring race, Larson tallied 53 points, which was seven more than Byron, though the No. 24 car won. I'm sticking with Byron this weekend, not thinking it will be a repeat of last year where he escaped an epic collapse.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. Chase Elliott

These two get around Martinsville better than most, and although they are in a must-win situation, they should be confident entering the weekend. Elliott placed third in the spring, which was his first finish better than 10th here since the spring of 2021. The easy pick is Blaney, though, as he has a unique way of wrapping the bottom lane and making incredible lap time.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Martin Truex Jr. vs. Chase Briscoe

Straight up, the No. 19 team is too inconsistent this year to choose Truex over Briscoe. Truex has three victories at Martinsville, but also has a single top 10 through the five Next Gen races. Briscoe will be a top-10 threat, if not better, this weekend.

MY LINEUP: William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano.

GARAGE: Bubba Wallace.