NASCAR Insights: Who’s strongest statistically for the Round of 12?

Racing Insights is back with NASCAR Insights stats specifically tailored for the entire of Round of 12 tracks. By looking at performances on similar tracks, Racing Insights has come up with ratings for each driver in speed, long-run speed, passing, defense and restarts to see who’s set up well for the upcoming Cup Series Playoffs races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway and the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course.

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What we’ve done in the chart below is total up those numbers and order the drivers from lowest to highest (with the lowest being the best or the most likely to do well in this round). What’s immediately noticeable from this batch of stats is that Denny Hamlin isn’t among the top eight playoff drivers in the chart. He comes in at just ninth because he’s 15th in both passing and restarts. Does that mean Denny is doomed to fizzle out in the Round of 12?

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Not exactly. Hamlin’s ranking of fourth in long-run speed gives him hope that if any of these races ends with a long green-flag run, then he could just as easily be dancing in Victory Lane. What these numbers also don’t take into account is that Hamlin is resting atop a pile of 34 playoff points, sitting 26 markers above the cutline and theoretically gives him some wiggle room should he have a subpar showing in any of the three races.

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On the flip side is Chase Elliott, who is the fourth-highest driver on the chart behind only William Byron, Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell. This rating suggests that we shouldn’t sleep on the 2020 champion, even though he started the playoffs with finishes of 17th, third and 38th. He could easily turn things around and get back in the championship conversation this year, should these numbers hold up — sixth in speed, seventh in long-run speed and in passing. He’s also third in defense, so if he does get to the front, he’ll likely be able to close out the win.

For the record, when we did this exercise for the Round of 16, the formula was 11-for-12 in how it ranked the playoff drivers, with Josh Berry being the lone top-12 driver who did not advance. What’s different about this time around is that the playoff drivers are much more tightly grouped as they take up 12 of the top 13 spots in the chart. That could mean that the difference in advancing or not advancing could be razor-thin this round and provide plenty of excitement for the fans.

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Check out the full list to see what jumps out at you that could be interesting for the Round of 12: