2018 Bubble Watch: Michigan

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series visits Michigan International Speedway this weekend as the playoff race continues to take shape. With four regular-season races remaining, here's a look at the bubble picture heading into the race weekend.

Aric Almirola

Points above cutoff: +141
Michigan wins: 0
Average track start: 20.3 (Rank: 6th out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 19.4 (Rank: 7th out of 12)
Notable: Michigan was quite good to Stewart-Haas Racing in June, with Almirola teammates Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch finishing 1-2-3. Although Almirola finished 11th that day, another result like that on Sunday would go a long way to locking up a postseason berth.

Jimmie Johnson

Points above cutoff: +102
Michigan wins: 1
Average track start: 10.3 (Rank: 1st out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 16.4 (Rank: t-2nd out of 12)
Notable: It is not a surprise Johnson leads all active drivers in laps led at Michigan (687). What is surprising is that despite all those laps led, the seven-time Cup champ has only a single Michigan win on his résumé in 33 career starts.

Alex Bowman

Points above cutoff: +62
Michigan wins: 0
Average track start: 26.8 (Rank: 11th out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 30.7 (Rank: 12th out of 12)
Notable: Even though Bowman got through Watkins Glen unscathed, finishing a respectable 14th, he remains squarely on the playoff bubble. Michigan has been a track where the No. 88 Hendrick team has excelled over the years, giving Bowman a platform to produce another solid result this weekend.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Points below cutoff: -62
Michigan wins: 0
Average track start: 20.0 (Rank: 5th out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 21.7 (Rank: 9th out of 12)
Notable: There is extra motivation for Stenhouse this weekend beyond needing a win to obtain playoff eligibility. Michigan is the home track for Roush Fenway Racing where it owns a track-best 13 wins -- though none since 2013.

Paul Menard

Points below cutoff: -72
Michigan wins: 0
Average track start: 22.1 (Rank: 9th out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 17.9 (Rank: 5th out of 12)
Notable: Michigan is Menard’s best track statistically, as he has more top fives (5) and top 10s (7) here than at any other venue. And in June at Michigan, he finished a season-best fifth.

Daniel Suarez

Points below cutoff: -89
Michigan wins: 0
Average track start: 19.3 (Rank: 4th out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 30.3 (Rank: 11th out of 12)
Notable: Suarez for the first time in his career has posted top-five finishes in consecutive races. It will be a challenge to extend that streak as the second-year driver has yet to figure out Michigan, never finishing better than 24th in three starts on the 2-mile speedway.

Ryan Newman

Points below cutoff: -92
Michigan wins: 2
Average track start: 13.7 (Rank: 2nd out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 16.4 (Rank: t-2nd out of 12)
Notable: Newman finished fourth in this event a year ago, his best Michigan result since winning the spring race in 2004. Considering where he resides in the standings, he’ll need to be better than fourth Sunday if he hopes to qualify for the playoffs.

William Byron

Points below cutoff: -96
Michigan wins: 0
Average track start: 14.0 (Rank: 3rd out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 13.0 (Rank: 1st out of 12)
Notable: Byron is performing exactly like a rookie should during their first season, continually improving and gradually having a more consistent presence up near the front. That is evident in the fact the freshman Cup driver enters Michigan on the strength of earning back-to-back top-10 finishes for the first time in his career.

Jamie McMurray

Points below cutoff: -113
Michigan wins: 0
Average track start: 21.7 (Rank: 8th out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 16.9 (Rank: 4th out of 12)
Notable: In June, McMurray placed 10th at Michigan. That result marks the last time the Chip Ganassi Racing driver finished in the top 10 on an oval this season, but gives credence that the potential is there for McMurray to have strong showing Sunday.

AJ Allmendinger

Points below cutoff: -163
Michigan wins: 0
Average track start: 25.6 (Rank: 10th out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 21.1 (Rank: 8th out of 12)
Notable: Watkins Glen didn’t turn out how Allmendinger expected. Compounding the frustration is that he’s now heading to a track where he often struggles, having never finished better than 11th in 20 career starts at Michigan.

Chris Buescher

Points below cutoff: -178
Michigan wins: 0
Average track start: 21.0 (Rank: 7th out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 24.2 (Rank: 10th out of 12)
Notable: Buescher has had his moments at Michigan, including a sixth-place effort last year. But he finished 24th here in June and comes in on a bit of a skid with five finishes of 20th or worse in the past six races.

Bubba Wallace

Points below cutoff: -192
Michigan wins: 0
Average track start: 27.0 (Rank: 12th out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 19.0 (Rank: 6th out of 12)
Notable: Say this about Wallace: He has the consistency part down related to how he finishes at Michigan having finished 19th in both his starts.