Playoff Watch 2018: Post-Pocono

From now until the regular-season finale at Indianapolis on Sept. 9, NASCAR.com will analyze the playoff picture on Monday as if the postseason started today. Here's the picture through 14 regular-season races (out of 26) following Martin Truex Jr.'s win at Pocono.

A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins, which is added on to their total of 2,000.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and one point for the 10th-place finisher.

Missing the cut

Jamie McMurray is among four 2017 playoff drivers not currently in the 2018 field. McMurray is mired 66 points behind the cutoff line. Fellow 2017 playoff drivers Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth also are below the cut line.

16. Aric Almirola, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Almirola is one of five drivers with 2,000 points in the field, and he ranks last due to the tiebreaker (best finish). He actually sits 11th in the regular-season standings, though, and is safer at this point than the other four.

15. Erik Jones, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Jones has dipped too close to the cutoff line for his liking in recent weeks. He's 12 points ahead of Alex Bowman, the first driver out of the field.

14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Stenhouse Jr. currently holds the final spot into the field by a razor-thin margin over Alex Bowman (although when the field is set, Stenhouse would be slotted No. 14 due to tiebreakers). The Roush Fenway Racing driver is nine points above the cutoff line.

13. Jimmie Johnson, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: It's not time to panic or anything for the No. 48 team, but a win -- or even a stage win at this point -- would be a great step.

12. Chase Elliott, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Hendrick Motorsports' improved showing at Pocono is reason to believe that Elliott can move his way up the playoff standings.

11. Kyle Larson, 2,002 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1 (does not count as a bonus point)
Note: Larson doesn't get the bonus point for winning a stage due to a post-race infraction. He has plenty of strong tracks ahead this summer to lock into the field.

10. Ryan Blaney, 2,004 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 3
Note: Only Team Penske teammate Brad Keselowski has more stage wins than Blaney, among winless drivers.

9. Denny Hamlin, 2,004 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1
Note: Hamlin is fourth in the series with top-five finishes (six), indicating a win may be closer for him than others who have yet to find Victory Lane.

8. Austin Dillon, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Note: The Daytona 500 victory locked Dillon into the playoff field early.

7. Kurt Busch, 2,006 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Busch is one of four Stewart-Haas Racing drivers in the postseason field through 14 races.

6. Brad Keselowski, 2,010 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 4
Note: Fifth in the regular-season standings, Keselowski has been among the stage masters this year.

5. Clint Bowyer, 2,010 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Martinsville)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowyer's Martinsville win elicited one of the most emotional celebrations we've seen this year, and ensured he'd be in the playoffs for just the second time since NASCAR moved to an elimination format in 2014.

4. Joey Logano, 2,015 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Talladega)
Stage wins: 2
Note: One year after stunningly missing the playoffs, Logano would enter as the fourth seed if the postseason started today.

3. Martin Truex Jr., 2,020 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Auto Club, Pocono)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Truex Jr. seemed to announce his return as a title contender at Pocono, but he needs a few more wins to keep pace with the top two seeds.

2. Kevin Harvick, 2,035 points

Qualified via: 5 wins* (Atlanta, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dover, Kansas)*
Stage wins: 7*
Note: One victory and two stage wins won't count toward bonus playoff points due to a post-race inspection failure. That's the difference between being the top seed and being second.

1. Kyle Busch, 2,040 points

Qualified via: 4 wins (Texas, Bristol, Richmond, Charlotte)
Stage wins: 5
Note: Being the regular-season points leader is worth 15 playoff points, and Busch is first after Pocono. That ensures he's first in this field, too.