Playoff Watch 2018: Post-New Hampshire

From now until the regular-season finale at Indianapolis on Sept. 9, NASCAR.com will analyze the playoff picture on Monday as if the postseason started today. Here's the picture through 20 regular-season races (out of 26) following Kevin Harvick's win at New Hampshire.

A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins, which is added on to their total of 2,000.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending one point for the 10th-place finisher.

Missing the cut

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is among five 2017 playoff drivers not currently in the 2018 field. Fellow 2017 playoff drivers Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth also are below the cut line. Stenhouse got into the wall late at Loudon, ruining his day and widening the playoff gulf. He is 28 points behind Alex Bowman for the final spot.

16. Alex Bowman, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: One week after near-disaster, Bowman took advantage of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s misfortune and his own strong run to gain 19 points in the battle for the final playoff spot.

15. Jimmie Johnson, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Johnson finished in the top 10 for the first time in six races. He slipped a spot in the playoff picture, but gained ground in the regular-season standings.

14. Aric Almirola, 2,001 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1
Note: Has Almirola ever felt worse after a top-five finish? Doubtful. His third-place run was no doubt spoiled by the knowledge that, without a late caution, he may have sailed to victory.

13. Chase Elliott, 2,001 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1
Note: A top-five run seemed to stun Elliott, who won Stage 2 for his first playoff point of the year -- it's enough for him to jump one spot in the standings.

12. Denny Hamlin, 2,003 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Hamlin salvaged a 13th-place finish, but the defending race winner never was in contention.

11. Kyle Larson, 2,003 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1 (does not count as a bonus point due to post-race inspection fail)
Note: Some weeks, Larson seems like he could make the 'Big 3' a 'Big 4.' Then other weeks -- like this one -- he looks far behind 'em.

10. Austin Dillon, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Dillon's five playoff points are a nice cushion, but the No. 3 team really needs to build on that -- even if it's via a couple of stage wins -- before we get to Las Vegas for the playoffs opener.

9. Erik Jones, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona-2)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Jones actually slips a spot this week due to Ryan Blaney's continued rise.

8. Ryan Blaney, 2,006 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 4
Note: A jump to ninth in the regular-season standings gives Blaney one additional playoff point, which slots him above both Austin Dillon and Erik Jones this week.

7. Brad Keselowski, 2,008 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 4
Note: Keselowski's fall in the playoff picture mirrors his fall in the regular-season standings after a 32nd-place run.

6. Kurt Busch, 2,008 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Like teammate Aric Almirola, a win was in sight for Busch -- but just out of reach. Still, he jumps up a spot this week and has quietly climbed to fifth in the regular-season standings.

5. Joey Logano, 2,014 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Talladega-1)
Stage wins: 2
Note: Logano is in no real danger of slipping in the playoff picture, but he's not threatening to jump higher, either.

4. Clint Bowyer, 2,015 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Martinsville-1, Michigan-1)
Stage wins: 0
Note: One of the surprise stats among all drivers -- Bowyer has two race wins, but zero stage wins.

3. Martin Truex Jr., 2,034 points

Qualified via: 4 wins (Auto Club, Pocono-1, Sonoma, Kentucky)
Stage wins: 6
Note: Add a stage win to Truex Jr.'s bounty, but even a fourth-place finish felt a bit hollow given Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch -- ahead of him in the standings -- finished 1-2.

2. Kevin Harvick, 2,042 points

Qualified via: 6 wins* (Atlanta, Las Vegas-1, Phoenix-1, Dover-1, Kansas-1, New Hampshire)*
Stage wins: 9*
Note: IF Kyle Busch had won at New Hampshire -- and he led with fewer than 20 laps to go -- he'd be 13 points ahead of Harvick. Instead, Harvick's well-timed bump-and-run cut the deficit to just three points.

1. Kyle Busch, 2,045 points

Qualified via: 5 wins (Texas-1, Bristol-1, Richmond-1, Charlotte, Chicagoland)
Stage wins: 5
Note: 'Rowdy' took the late-race bump from Kevin Harvick about as well as possible. Now we'll eagerly await to see if he pays him back as the stakes keep getting higher.