Playoff Watch 2018: Post-Watkins Glen

From now until the regular-season finale at Indianapolis on Sept. 9, NASCAR.com will analyze the playoff picture on Monday as if the postseason started today. Here's the picture through 22 regular-season races (out of 26) following Chase Elliott's win at Watkins Glen.

A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins, which is added on to their total of 2,000.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top-10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending one point for the 10th-place finisher.

Missing the cut

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is among five 2017 playoff drivers not currently in the 2018 field. Fellow 2017 playoff drivers Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth also are below the cut line. Following Watkins Glen, Stenhouse Jr. slipped to 62 points behind Alex Bowman for the final spot.

16. Alex Bowman, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowman now sits a full race -- 62 points, to be exact -- above Ricky Stenhouse Jr. for the final spot. He's in excellent shape, provided someone below the cutline doesn't win.

15. Jimmie Johnson, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Teammate Chase Elliott won his way into the postseason at Watkins Glen, something Johnson will look to emulate over the next four races.

14. Aric Almirola, 2,001 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1
Note: Chase Elliott's win widens the gulf between the non-winners, putting some additional pressure on drivers such as Almirola to win, or at least get some more stage points.

13. Kyle Larson, 2,003 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1* (does not count as a bonus point due to post-race inspection fail)
Note: Michigan and Bristol in back-to-back weeks should put Larson back in position to nab his first win of the year.

12. Denny Hamlin, 2,004 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Hamlin started from the Busch Pole, his first of the year, but finished 13th. Time is running out for the No. 11 team to put it together before the playoffs.

11. Ryan Blaney, 2,005 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 4
Note: Blaney still has the opportunity to close some ground in the regular-season standings and jump into the top 10, where he'd earn playoff points. He currently sits 11th.

10. Austin Dillon, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Big, wide tracks tend to suit Dillon's driving style. A strong showing at Michigan is sorely needed.

9. Erik Jones, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona-2)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Erik Jones' speed didn't disappear on a road course. He finished fifth for his second consecutive top five.

8. Brad Keselowski, 2,008 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 4
Note: Keselowski drops two spots in the standings this week with the ascension of both Chase Elliott and Kurt Busch.

7. Chase Elliott, 2,008 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Watkins Glen)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Elliott jumped six spots in the playoff picture after winning at Watkins Glen, while also picking up an additional stage win. He has the look of a driver peaking at the exact right time.

6. Kurt Busch, 2,009 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Busch jumped two spots in the regular season standings and now is fourth there. That's the highest for a non-winner, and being fourth is worth seven playoff points.

5. Joey Logano, 2,012 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Talladega-1)
Stage wins: 2
Note: Sunday really couldn't have gone any worse for Joey Logano. He heads to one of his better tracks, Michigan, looking to turn it around.

4. Clint Bowyer, 2,016 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Martinsville-1, Michigan-1)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowyer still ranks fourth in the playoff picture, but he's cooled since Chicago -- the No. 14 team doesn't have a top-10 finish in five races.

3. Martin Truex Jr., 2,035 points

Qualified via: 4 wins (Auto Club, Pocono-1, Sonoma, Kentucky)
Stage wins: 7
Note: Truex Jr. earned a playoff point, but was he ever close to catching Chase Elliott before running out of fuel on the final lap. It may be a critical miss once the postseason begins.

2. Kevin Harvick, 2,043 points

Qualified via: 6 wins* (Atlanta, Las Vegas-1, Phoenix-1, Dover-1, Kansas-1, New Hampshire)*
Stage wins: 10*
Note: Harvick held his own on a road course, not losing any ground to Kyle Busch on a track type that favors 'Rowdy.' He has four races to catch the Joe Gibbs Racing driver.

1. Kyle Busch, 2,050 points

Qualified via: 6 wins (Texas-1, Bristol-1, Richmond-1, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Pocono-2)
Stage wins: 5
Note: Busch may have been the class of the field at Watkins Glen and left with zero earned playoff points. It feels like a missed opportunity to really separate from Kevin Harvick.