Bubble Watch: Atlanta brings high risk, potential danger for playoff drivers
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The Round of 16 begins Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway (3 p.m. ET, USA, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), in a race that could shake up the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs in the postseason opener.
Before the green flag drops, check out who's trending toward a solid race in the Peach State with the latest edition of Bubble Watch.
(Stats provided by Racing Insights)
RELATED: Weekend schedule | Ranking the 2024 playoff field
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Safely above the elimination line
1. Kyle Larson (plus-35)
2. Christopher Bell (plus-27)
3. Tyler Reddick (plus-23)
4. William Byron (plus-17)
Not as safe but still with a high-percentage chance of advancing:
5. Ryan Blaney (plus-13)
6. Denny Hamlin (plus-10)
7. Chase Elliott (plus-9)
8. Brad Keselowski (plus-3)
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Joey Logano
Points above elimination line: 2
Chances of advancing to next round: 71.31%
Trending: Win or Cold
Atlanta outlook -- Cold: While Logano has the 2023 Atlanta spring race win on his resume, the driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford enters the playoffs after an up-and-down regular season. The win at Nashville earned him a playoff berth, but the consistency has not been there across the board. In the last 11 races, Logano has finished 19th or worse seven times. He is good at drafting-style tracks and a win at Atlanta would serve as a good way for the No. 22 team to start building momentum at the right time.
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Austin Cindric
Points above elimination line: 2
Chances of advancing to next round: 47.47%
Trending: Hit or Miss
Atlanta outlook -- Warm: Cindric makes his second appearance in the Cup Series Playoffs, looking to make some noise after the victory at Gateway in early June got him into the postseason. Like his teammate Logano, Cindric is a strong performer at the drafting-style tracks, although the results may not show the full picture. In two of his last four starts at Atlanta, Cindric has two top-five finishes. If he can stay up front and avoid trouble, the Team Penske driver could find himself in the mix for the win.
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Daniel Suárez
Points above elimination line: 1
Chances of advancing to next round: 55.81%
Trending: Warm
Atlanta outlook -- Warm: After picking up a thrilling victory in an epic photo finish during the Atlanta spring race, Suárez returns to the Peach State looking to sweep both Georgia races. The Trackhouse Racing driver has three top 10s in the last five races. In his last five Atlanta races in the drafting style-configuration, Suárez has four finishes of sixth or better. So, Atlanta arrives at the perfect time to keep the momentumn going.
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Chase Briscoe
Points above elimination line: 0
Chances of advancing to next round: 43.27%
Trending: Red hot
Atlanta outlook -- Cold: Briscoe's "Hail Mary" win at Darlington changed the course of Stewart-Haas Racing's final season for the better. With the organization's last hope to win a championship before ceasing operations at the end of the 2024 season, Briscoe gives them a lifeline for a potential storybook ending. Unfortunately, the driver of the No. 14 Ford does not have the best record on drafting-style tracks. In 20 career starts on these style of tracks, Briscoe only has four top 10s, with a best-finish of 15th twice at Atlanta. Sunday's playoff opener could put the No. 14 team in a hole in the Round of 16.
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Alex Bowman
Points below elimination line: 0
Chances of advancing to next round: 68.29%
Trending: Cold
Atlanta outlook -- Cold: Entering Sunday's playoff opener at Atlanta, here is a bit of good news and bad news for Bowman's prospects this weekend. Starting with the good news, 12 top-10 finishes in the first 26 races already exceeds the number he had last year. However, the bad news is Bowman enters the postseason trending cold. In the last 12 races, the driver of the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet has only three top 10s.
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Harrison Burton
Points below elimination line: 0
Chances of advancing to next round: 13.50%
Trending: Win or Miss
Atlanta outlook -- Warm: Like the Daytona summer race, it was win or bust for Burton and Wood Brothers Racing. The No. 21 team will likely enter Atlanta with the same underdog mindset, hoping to stun the NASCAR world again by winning in the Peach State and advancing to the Round of 12. In his last three races at drafting-style tracks, Burton has finished 11th or better.
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Ty Gibbs
Points below elimination line: 1
Chances of advancing to next round: 67.99%
Trending: Hit or Miss
Atlanta outlook -- Warm: Making his debut in the Cup Series Playoffs, Atlanta is the perfect track for Gibbs to begin his postseason quest. In three career Atlanta starts, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has two top-10 finishes. Gibbs also has three of his seven top fives in last seven races.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Points below elimination line: 1
Chances of advancing to next round: 71.01%
Trending: Cold
Atlanta outlook -- Cold: The summer stretch has not been kind to Truex and his No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team. In the last eight races, the 2017 Cup Series champion has finished 24th or worse seven times. That is not a good sign for a driver who would love to end his final full-time season holding the Bill France Cup at Phoenix. To make the situation more concerning, Truex only has two top 10s in the last 14 races. The No. 19 team needs a solid result at Atlanta or it could be in trouble.