Bubble Watch, presented by Xfinity: Trio of Cup champs still seeking Phoenix ticket

It all comes down to this as Martinsville will set the Championship 4 for Phoenix Raceway next week. We know Joey Logano will vie for his third series title and Tyler Reddick will go for his first Bill France Trophy but there are still two tickets to be punched and many questions to be answered in Sunday's Xfinity 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). 

See who's trending upward and downward ahead of Martinsville with stats provided by Racing Insights. 

RELATED: Martinsville schedule | Full results projections for Sunday

Safely above the elimination line

1. Tyler Reddick (ADV)

2. Joey Logano (ADV)

Christopher Bell

Points above elimination line: 29

Chances of advancing to next round: 81.26%

Trending: Hot

Martinsville outlook -- Hit or Miss: Bell's nine Cup starts at Martinsville have been shaky at best. He hit a walk-off in 2022 to reach his first Championship 4. However, Bell only owns three top 10s at the track and in the spring, had a mechanical issue in the right front that parachuted him to a 35th-place result. 

William Byron

Points above elimination line: 7

Chances of advancing to next round: 38.34%

Trending: Hot

Martinsville outlook -- Win or Miss: Byron has won two of the five races at Martinsville in the Next Gen era, including a checkered flag in the spring. However, that stretch includes finishes of 23rd and 13th, which could spell doom for the No. 24 as they hold just a single-digit deficit above the elimination line. 

Kyle Larson

Points below elimination line: 7

Chances of advancing to next round: 36.52%

Trending: Win or Miss

Martinsville outlook -- Hot: No one has had a more dramatic playoff run this year than Larson. He's scored two wins this postseason but has had trouble in the opening race of every round to set him back and the No. 5 team suffered a flat tire early at Homestead to put them behind the 8-ball further heading to Martinsville. Luckily, Martinsville has been one of Larson's best tracks in the Next Gen car, with four consecutive finishes of sixth or better. 

Denny Hamlin

Points below elimination line: 18

Chances of advancing to next round: 20.27%

Trending: Warm

Martinsville outlook -- Warm: Given who enters Sunday's race above Hamlin, Martinsville might as well be a must-win for him. However, the Virginia native hasn't won at the short track since 2015 but he does own three top fives in the last four races at Martinsville. 

Ryan Blaney

Points below elimination line: 38

Chances of advancing to next round: 12.73%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Martinsville outlook -- Hot: Homestead was near-glory for Blaney as he led entering the final corners at the oval, only to choose the wrong lane entering Turn 3 and falling short to Reddick. However, Martinsville is almost an automatic great result for Blaney with an average finish of 8.8 in 17 starts. He's also the defending winner of the Martinsville playoff race. 

Chase Elliott

Points below elimination line: 43

Chances of advancing to next round: 10.88%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Martinsville outlook -- Warming Up: In rare form this season, Elliott was a contender to win Sunday's race at Homestead. But with no checkered flag last week, it's only win-or-go-home for the 2020 champion. Do you know what he did that year? He won at Martinsville after entering beneath the elimination line to punch his ticket to Phoenix.