Fantasy Fastlane: Brad Keselowski, Talladega’s winningest active driver, needs big weekend

Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Thursday).




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MUST START:
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Over the past decade, no Cup Series driver has performed better at Talladega than Keselowski. He’s won at the track a grand total of six times in 26 career starts, including this race last season. Daytona was a bright spot for RFK Racing this year, as the No. 6 car led a race-high 67 laps. While he’s been feast or famine at the superspeedway, Keselowski needs a good run this weekend.

MUST START:
Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 11-1
Like Keselowski, Wallace also needs a standout run this weekend, as he hasn’t earned a top-10 finish since placing runner-up in the Daytona 500. The good thing is, the No. 23 team has three consecutive top-two finishes on superspeedways, including his first Cup win at 'Dega last fall.

MUST START:
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
While Stenhouse has had a disappointing 2022 season thus far, he always finds himself up front at the superspeedway races. Case in point: the No. 47 car was in position to potentially win at Daytona before getting involved in an incident after contact with Keselowski with five laps to go. This would be a good use of Stenhouse, knowing it won’t affect you in the long run.

MUST START:
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 11-1
In many people’s eyes, Blaney will be the favorite for the win on Sunday. Rightfully so, having won two of the past five Talladega races. Seeing how much speed Blaney has had at nearly every track this season, it’s a risk to use him at this superspeedway based on the unpredictability. But given his success and patience on superspeedways, lean towards putting him in.

SLEEPER PICK:
Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
Though mostly going under the radar, Dillon is a superb superspeedway competitor, having won the 2018 Daytona 500. In last year’s Great American Race, he placed third. While Talladega isn’t Daytona, much of the same tendencies apply. And with the recent tough luck for Richard Childress Racing, the team is due for a solid performance, potentially a win.

SLEEPER PICK:
Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Throughout his Cup career, Almirola has always had a knack for superspeedway racing, picking up his first two wins at such race tracks. And while this is a different car, he still earned a top-five finish in the Daytona 500. Don’t be surprised to see the No. 10 car battling up front, as he recently had a stretch of eight straight top 10s at Talladega.

SLEEPER PICK:
Austin Cindric | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Going into the 500-mile race, there’s going to be a lot of hype around Cindric. After all, he was a sleeper pick for Daytona and he won! Whether it be competing in the Xfinity Series for four years or his two Cup starts at Daytona, this year’s Daytona 500 champion has a prowess for pack-style racing. Driving for Team Penske doesn’t hurt, either.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
In a preseason media availability at Daytona, Larson stated he doesn’t have the confidence to pull out and make a move in the draft, when it comes to Daytona and Talladega. That hesitancy alone should be a red flag to fantasy players. In 30 starts on superspeedways, Larson has never earned a top-five finish, and has just two top 10s at Talladega, the last of which came in 2016.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Arguably, Trackhouse Racing has been the biggest surprise of the Cup Series in 2022. However, historically, Suárez has struggled on superspeedways, earning just one top-10 finish in 20 starts, with his best finish being a 10th. That’s not a track record to put on this week’s fantasy team.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 33-1
Despite winning both stages in this year’s Daytona 500, Truex has never been one of the favorites on superspeedways. Aside from his runner-up photo finish in 2016, he hasn’t had a multitude of success at either Daytona or Talladega. In fact, he hasn’t even earned a top 10 at Talladega since the fall of 2015. Bad luck or not, save the No. 19 car for when you’ll need him (ahem, Dover next week).

MY LINEUP: Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Bubba Wallace, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Dillon; Garage: Aric Almirola

While there is a proponent of luck involved in being successful on superspeedways, it does take a different skill set. Because of that, many of the same drivers are in contention to win races at Daytona and Talladega. Aside from drivers noted above, think about adding Joey Logano and William Byron to your lineup — or saving them for down the road.