Fantasy Fastlane: Go heavy on Joe Gibbs Racing at Richmond

This weekend, the Cup Series heads to Richmond Raceway for the first of three consecutive short track races. Last season, two crafty veterans used pit strategy to get respective wins in each of the Richmond races. They are both a sure bet for your lineups this weekend, too.

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MUST START: 

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 9-1

The hometown driver who grew up a stone's throw away from the track has had plenty of success in his Cup career at Richmond. In 32 starts at his home track, Hamlin has a quartet of victories and has finished in the top five more times than not (17 of 32 races). Last year, his crew chief Chris Gabehart split the final stage into thirds, which propelled the No. 11 car to the lead late in the race. Hamlin is riding a streak of four straight top fives at Richmond into the weekend.

MUST START: 

Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 6-1

In August at Richmond, Harvick became the first driver to score back-to-back victories in the Next Gen era. The 2014 champion also has four wins at the three-quarter mile track and since joining Stewart-Haas in 2014, he has 13 top-10 finishes in 17 Richmond starts. Ten of those have cracked the top five. And if you look back to Phoenix – a similar track layout – three weeks ago, the No. 4 car was in position to win until a late caution flew. 

MUST START: 

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 9-1

Since 2016, no driver has been better in the field at Richmond than Truex. In the last 12 races, he’s led 80-plus laps on nine occasions. The other three races, he didn’t lead a single lap. Combined, he led more than a quarter of the laps in those races (1,237 of 4,813). Even last year, when he wasn’t a huge threat for the win in either Richmond race, he had an average finish of 5.5.

MUST START: 

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 8-1

Had the August race been one lap longer, Bell would have likely been the driver celebrating in Victory Lane. Richmond is a track he’s taken a liking to with four top-six finishes in five Cup starts. Add that to his three Xfinity Series wins at Richmond in five starts, and it shouldn’t surprise anybody if he’s the next first-time winner in 2023.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 28-1

Last season, Buescher got a lot of glory for his performances on road courses (that continued last weekend at COTA; he now has six straight top 10s when turning left and right). But the No. 17 car won at Bristol and finished third in the August race at Richmond. That was, however, just his second top-15 finish in 13 starts at the short track.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Aric Almirola | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 50-1

It doesn’t seem to matter how well or poorly Almirola is doing, he’s always competitive at two tracks: New Hampshire and Richmond. His 27.5 average finish through the first six races of the 2023 season is reminiscent of his start to the 2021 season. In nine Richmond starts for SHR, Almirola has four top-10 finishes, including an eighth-place finish last August. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 80-1

Early in his career, Richmond was a mystery for Dillon. But he found a bit of speed in a tire test and has been competitive at the track ever since. All five of his top-10 finishes at Richmond have come in the last eight races. In that span, he has an additional finish of 11th. He sits 26th in points, and the No. 3 team needs to find some of those results soon.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 16-1

Historically, Richmond has been Blaney’s worst track on the NASCAR circuit. Recently, though, he has improved with three straight top 10s at the track entering the weekend. But none of those have been inside the top five. There will be a multitude of other tracks throughout the regular season that suits the No. 12 team better.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

In both Richmond races last season, Chastain faded late in the race to an average finish of 18.5. When he had track position in August, the No. 1 car was sporty and led wire-to-wire in the opening stage. Still think you’ll get better uses out of Chastain than Richmond. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds: 33-1

Might as well throw the other Trackhouse driver Suárez into drivers who you can save. Across four different teams, the 2016 Xfinity Series champion has just three top 10s at Richmond. He’s also on a streak of three straight finishes outside of the top 20 this season. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Martin Truex Jr.

These matchups are difficult this weekend, as the drivers involved fill up most of my roster spots. However, this one is particularly tough, with both drivers having multiple victories at Richmond. Something tells me to go with Hamlin, as the No. 11 car has shown more speed this season (both drivers are looking for their first top five). He also finished better than the No. 19 car in the first two races at Richmond in the Next Gen car.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kevin Harvick vs. Brad Keselowski

Aside from Joey Logano’s win at Atlanta, these two drivers have led the Ford camp in 2023. Both ran well at Phoenix, the first race in which this year’s short track package was used. Harvick nearly won the race and Keselowski dropped back late after a bad pit stop. Harvick, who had top-two finishes in each Richmond race last season, is my pick. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. Joey Logano

Bell was my preseason championship pick and he’s still looking for that first victory in 2023. Meanwhile, Logano usually runs at the front at Richmond with a pair of wins and 16 top 10s in 27 starts. I’m thinking this is the weekend that the No. 20 team finally finds Victory Lane this season, which in turn means he will finish ahead of Logano.  

FEATURED MATCHUP:

William Byron vs. Ross Chastain

With a fifth-place finish and an incredible battle with Tyler Reddick last weekend at COTA, Byron continues to be the hottest driver at the Cup level in 2023. The only reason he’s not in my lineup is because I’ve used him three times already. Last year, he finished third and led 122 laps in this race. 

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch

GARAGE: Brad Keselowski