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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Atlanta’s a tried and Truex track
By RJ Kraft | Friday, March 19, 2021
NASCAR Digital Media
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Abbie Parr | Getty Images
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Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Phoenix has eight top-eight finishes in his last nine Atlanta starts. That stretch also includes five top-five finishes. In the last three Atlanta races, only Kevin Harvick has earned more points – Truex has averaged 47.3 points. He also has the fourth-most points in the first two 1.5-milers this year. I'm in on this play for Sunday.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Phoenix has eight top-eight finishes in his last nine Atlanta starts. That stretch also includes five top-five finishes. In the last three Atlanta races, only Kevin Harvick has earned more points – Truex has averaged 47.3 points. He also has the fourth-most points in the first two 1.5-milers this year. I'm in on this play for Sunday.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: The 2021 season hasn't fired off to the standards we are used to from the 2014 champion. We expect that to change at Atlanta. The 4 car has been a powerhouse here in Harvick's time at SHR: two wins in the last three races and a whopping 1,111 laps led in the last seven races (the next closest is Kyle Larson at 149). If he isn't strong here, I'm concerned.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: The 2021 season hasn't fired off to the standards we are used to from the 2014 champion. We expect that to change at Atlanta. The 4 car has been a powerhouse here in Harvick's time at SHR: two wins in the last three races and a whopping 1,111 laps led in the last seven races (the next closest is Kyle Larson at 149). If he isn't strong here, I'm concerned.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has won two of the last four races at Atlanta and was the runner-up in one of the other two. Over that stretch, only Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick have scored more points at the 1.54-mile track. In that same stretch, it's easily his best track by average finish. In the two 1.5-mile races so far in 2021, Kes has the third-most points.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has won two of the last four races at Atlanta and was the runner-up in one of the other two. Over that stretch, only Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick have scored more points at the 1.54-mile track. In that same stretch, it's easily his best track by average finish. In the two 1.5-mile races so far in 2021, Kes has the third-most points.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Part of the calculus in deciding to remove Larson from my lineup after he dropped to the rear at Phoenix was the glut of good tracks he has coming. Atlanta is one of those places. He was the runner-up here in 2017, led a race-high 142 laps in 2019 and over his last three races there, he has an average of 41 points. In 2021, he has the second-most points on 1.5-milers.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Part of the calculus in deciding to remove Larson from my lineup after he dropped to the rear at Phoenix was the glut of good tracks he has coming. Atlanta is one of those places. He was the runner-up here in 2017, led a race-high 142 laps in 2019 and over his last three races there, he has an average of 41 points. In 2021, he has the second-most points on 1.5-milers.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is always an option given his all-around success at varying track types ... but is Atlanta the best way to maximizing your uses? His 10.0 average finish is best among drivers in Sunday's field and he has four top 10s in five starts at his home track. Now, just one of those finishes is a top five and two of those races have produced 40 points or more. His stats are good but I'm leaning toward holding back the use.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is always an option given his all-around success at varying track types ... but is Atlanta the best way to maximizing your uses? His 10.0 average finish is best among drivers in Sunday's field and he has four top 10s in five starts at his home track. Now, just one of those finishes is a top five and two of those races have produced 40 points or more. His stats are good but I'm leaning toward holding back the use.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: In Logano's first six starts at Atlanta, he finished no better than 18th. His last eight (all with Penske) have seen him nab two top fives and five top 10s – although the last top five came in 2015. The 2018 champ has been a bit lackluster on 1.5-milers in 2021. I am looking at a save especially with Martinsville and Richmond coming up – two strong Logano tracks.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: In Logano's first six starts at Atlanta, he finished no better than 18th. His last eight (all with Penske) have seen him nab two top fives and five top 10s – although the last top five came in 2015. The 2018 champ has been a bit lackluster on 1.5-milers in 2021. I am looking at a save especially with Martinsville and Richmond coming up – two strong Logano tracks.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The two-time champion has two Atlanta wins on his resume. His 5.0 average finish over the past three Atlanta races is fourth-best in that stretch. In last year's race, where he was the runner-up finisher, he had the second-fastest car late in a run. He's also nabbed top 10s in both 1.5-mile races in 2021 and the sixth-most points in those races.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The two-time champion has two Atlanta wins on his resume. His 5.0 average finish over the past three Atlanta races is fourth-best in that stretch. In last year's race, where he was the runner-up finisher, he had the second-fastest car late in a run. He's also nabbed top 10s in both 1.5-mile races in 2021 and the sixth-most points in those races.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has three Atlanta wins to his name. In the last 11 starts there, the worst finish he has had is 13th – a stretch that has seen him nab nine top 10s. Over the last three races there, he has the sixth-most points and is one of five drivers with top 10s in all of those races. He's cooled off after a strong start but I like him a lot on tracks with big tire fall off like Atlanta.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has three Atlanta wins to his name. In the last 11 starts there, the worst finish he has had is 13th – a stretch that has seen him nab nine top 10s. Over the last three races there, he has the sixth-most points and is one of five drivers with top 10s in all of those races. He's cooled off after a strong start but I like him a lot on tracks with big tire fall off like Atlanta.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has had two strong points days in a row after a lackluster start to the season. Last year's fourth-place run at Atlanta was his first top five and top 10 in five starts there. He had the fourth-fastest car late in a run meaning he was able to manage the tire fall off better than most. The note of concern – he ran well at Miami last year and was not much of a factor in that race two weeks ago - and that's also a track with significant tire fall off.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has had two strong points days in a row after a lackluster start to the season. Last year's fourth-place run at Atlanta was his first top five and top 10 in five starts there. He had the fourth-fastest car late in a run meaning he was able to manage the tire fall off better than most. The note of concern – he ran well at Miami last year and was not much of a factor in that race two weeks ago - and that's also a track with significant tire fall off.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has the most points on 1.5-mile tracks to open the season and also has three straight top 10s with an average of 44.3 points in that stretch. The reason we are hesitant to remove the sleeper status from him are his Atlanta numbers, with a best finish of 17th in three starts there.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has the most points on 1.5-mile tracks to open the season and also has three straight top 10s with an average of 44.3 points in that stretch. The reason we are hesitant to remove the sleeper status from him are his Atlanta numbers, with a best finish of 17th in three starts there.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: The overall Atlanta numbers for Dillon don't scream play me – no top 10s in eight starts. I think he's a sneaky play for a few reasons: Three top 14s in his last five Atlanta starts, two top 12s this year on 1.5-milers and he tends to be solid at tracks with big tire fall off.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: The overall Atlanta numbers for Dillon don't scream play me – no top 10s in eight starts. I think he's a sneaky play for a few reasons: Three top 14s in his last five Atlanta starts, two top 12s this year on 1.5-milers and he tends to be solid at tracks with big tire fall off.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse has gotten off to a quietly consistent start on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2021. He has an average finish of 12.0 and an average of 25 points. On the season, he has three straight top-13 finishes. At Atlanta, he has three top-13 finishes in his last five starts.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse has gotten off to a quietly consistent start on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2021. He has an average finish of 12.0 and an average of 25 points. On the season, he has three straight top-13 finishes. At Atlanta, he has three top-13 finishes in his last five starts.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 125-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones had one top 10 and three top 15s in his first four Atlanta starts. His 15.0 average finish at the track is good for sixth-best among Sunday's field. While a drop off could be expected in his new ride, he did nab a top-10 finish two weekends ago at Las Vegas.
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 125-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones had one top 10 and three top 15s in his first four Atlanta starts. His 15.0 average finish at the track is good for sixth-best among Sunday's field. While a drop off could be expected in his new ride, he did nab a top-10 finish two weekends ago at Las Vegas.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: For me, this is an evaluation based on taking stock of the bulk of his Atlanta work. His 17.3 average finish is his second-worst of tracks on the circuit – only in front of Sonoma. His recent runs – two top fives in his last three Atlanta starts and his position as the most consistent driver to start 2021 make it a tougher evaluation. For me, it comes down to comfort and maximizing uses and I am more comfortable deploying him elsewhere. I may slide him in as a bonus pick or two as a safety measure.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: For me, this is an evaluation based on taking stock of the bulk of his Atlanta work. His 17.3 average finish is his second-worst of tracks on the circuit – only in front of Sonoma. His recent runs – two top fives in his last three Atlanta starts and his position as the most consistent driver to start 2021 make it a tougher evaluation. For me, it comes down to comfort and maximizing uses and I am more comfortable deploying him elsewhere. I may slide him in as a bonus pick or two as a safety measure.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: In the season's first two 1.5-mile races, Wallace placed 22nd and 28th at Miami and Las Vegas, respectively. He totaled just 24 points in those races. So to say the new team's 1.5-mile program is a work-in-progress is accurate. In three Atlanta starts, he’s never finished better than 21st. This team needs more time before we consider a non-superspeedway play.
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: In the season's first two 1.5-mile races, Wallace placed 22nd and 28th at Miami and Las Vegas, respectively. He totaled just 24 points in those races. So to say the new team's 1.5-mile program is a work-in-progress is accurate. In three Atlanta starts, he’s never finished better than 21st. This team needs more time before we consider a non-superspeedway play.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Cole Custer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: I thought Custer was primed to be a sleeper breakout candidate in 2021 after he put together a sneaky good second half of 2020. However, the early returns on intermediates in 2021 have not been promising with just an average finish of 24.0 and 26 points in the two races.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: I thought Custer was primed to be a sleeper breakout candidate in 2021 after he put together a sneaky good second half of 2020. However, the early returns on intermediates in 2021 have not been promising with just an average finish of 24.0 and 26 points in the two races.
Kevin C. Cox | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch; Garage: Kyle Busch.
Just missed the cut: Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, William Byron and Joey Logano.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
Just missed the cut: Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, William Byron and Joey Logano.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
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