Fantasy Fastlane: Tyler Reddick’s time to shine at Homestead

In dominating fashion at Las Vegas, Kyle Larson punched his ticket to battle for the 2023 Cup Series championship in two weeks at Phoenix Raceway. Larson stomped the field at Homestead-Miami Speedway last season, winning for the first time at the track. Half of the Round of 8 drivers have won at Homestead in the past, while Tyler Reddick also excels at the track. The key for fantasy success this week lies in what drivers outside the playoff battle can make a difference at Homestead. 

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MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-4

By using Larson at Las Vegas, I have just one use remaining for Larson across the final three races this season. Quite frankly, it’s going to boil down to whether I want to save him for Phoenix or use him this weekend. I’m leaning toward the latter as Championship 4 drivers can score a maximum of 40 points at Phoenix. Cliff Daniels and Larson both mentioned that after winning in Sin City, they aren’t turning their attention to Phoenix yet, since there are two more races to win. They want to enter Phoenix with maximum momentum. 

MUST START: 

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

When thinking of drivers who can drive the best against the wall, most everyone will point to Larson. However, it was Reddick who won two Xfinity Series championships by running inches from the wall for 300 miles at Homestead. Reddick had a forgetful race at the 1.5-mile track last year but finished second in 2021 and made up over 10 seconds on the final run of the race. It’s plausible to think that 23XI Racing is putting all its eggs into the No. 45 team’s basket this weekend.

MUST START: 

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 11-2

Once again, Truex showed speed in the playoffs at Las Vegas, but the No. 19 team failed to maximize its day. It did result in his first top-10 finish of the playoffs, however. It’s concerning that the No. 19 team continues to beat itself. Homestead is another venue where the veteran driver excels, with five finishes of sixth or better over the last six races. Last year, he was in position to contest Larson for the win until he spun on pit road during a late pit stop.

MUST START: 

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

By not using Hamlin this weekend at Las Vegas, it really is making me reconsider not using him earlier in the playoffs when the No. 11 team was unstoppable. Hamlin is no scrub at Homestead, with top 10 finishes in 66% of his starts. He’s a three-time winner at the track, with the most recent triumph coming in 2020.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1

Did you see how much pace Chastain had last weekend? It mirrored his performances from the first third of the 2023 season and looked to be the best overall setup he’s had since winning at Nashville in late June. That bodes well for Homestead because Chastain continuously improved throughout the 2022 race and ultimately finished runner-up. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him score another top five this week.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 30-1

The fact that Harvick has visited Victory Lane just once at Homestead is astonishing. His defining moment came in 2014, winning the championship in the inaugural Championship 4 battle. Since 2007, Harvick has just one finish outside the top 10 (26th in 2020) at Homestead, and at one point, he had a 12-race streak of consecutive top 10s. His average finish of 7.3 is the best in the field here, and he finished eighth last season with comparable speed to 2023.

SLEEPER PICK:

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 200-1

Allmendinger probably won’t be considered for many fantasy lineups this weekend, but Homestead is among his best intermediate tracks on the circuit. Dating back to his days with Richard Petty Motorsports, he’s always gotten around Homestead well, and he has four top 10s across 11 starts. Just two of his finishes have been worse than 20th. The No. 16 car also placed third here last season.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 14-1

It’s possible that come Martinsville next week, 0.082 seconds separated Bell from advancing to the Championship 4 in his second-place finish at Las Vegas. With just three Cup starts at Homestead, it’s hard to get a gauge on Bell for this weekend. He has just one top 10 in those three races but finished 11th last season. Two of his three Xfinity starts at the track also resulted in finishes outside the top 10.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 18-1

Blaney has had an adventurous week, believing at one point he was 17 points below the elimination line following Las Vegas, to thinking he was 56 points out, to entering Homestead 17 points behind fourth. It might not matter, though, as he struggles at Homestead, earning a single top 10 – a third-place finish in 2020 – in eight starts. Three times, he’s finished 17th, while he has three results below 25th. Not a good week to use Blaney.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Erik Jones | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Chevrolet

Odds: 80-1

In recent months, Jones has shown contending speed out of his No. 43 car. But Homestead is a no-go. Five of his six Cup starts at the track have resulted in finishes south of 20th. The lone exception was in 2019, when he placed third. It’s a track one would expect him to be good at, but he’s yet to master it.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Larson vs. William Byron

We haven’t said anything about Byron yet, but he’s another driver who knows how to get around Homestead, having won in 2021. Byron enters the 400-mile race 11 points to the good, needing a solid run at Homestead to not make Martinsville more pressure packed. You can’t bet against Larson with how well he’s run at Homestead in the past, leading more than 130 laps in three of his last six starts.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Martin Truex Jr.

The opening seven races, including Las Vegas, have been filled with mishaps for Truex and the No. 19 team. Last week, it was an odd strategy to not pit at the beginning of the second stage that set Truex back for the rest of the race. The No. 11 team hasn’t had those types of issues and brings speed to the track each weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. Tyler Reddick

Reddick is going to be a trendy pick for Homestead. Rightfully so with how much success he’s garnered at that race track. For the second straight season, Bell has gotten hot at the right time. Don’t think it’s enough to overcome Reddick’s fearlessness of running against the boards, though.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chris Buescher vs. Ryan Blaney

Las Vegas might have been the final dagger for Ford this season; a nail in the coffin, if you will. Buescher didn’t score any stage points, but he did round out the top 10. Give the advantage to Buescher at Homestead as he had his first breakout performance with RFK Racing here in 2021, leading 57 laps. Not too confident about it, though, because he doesn’t have a top 10 finish in seven Homestead starts.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch

GARAGE: Ross Chastain