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Power Rankings: 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season look ahead
By Pat DeCola | Tuesday, November 8, 2022
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NASCAR.com's Pat DeCola ranks the top 25 NASCAR Cup Series drivers as the focus turns to 2023 and a new season offers a fresh start.
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25. Noah Gragson
2022 season-high: N/A
2022 season-low: N/A
Comment: Gragson moves up from a fruitful -- albeit titleless -- full-time Xfinity Series career and should slide right into a strong opportunity beside Erik Jones and under a total of 14 Cup driver titles at the ownership level. The sky's the limit here, and the playoffs are on the table.
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24. Justin Haley
2022 season-high: 20
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: Haley's 2022 flew under the radar perhaps more than anybody, with two top fives in the playoffs and a season average finish (18.4) comparable to Bubba Wallace (18.3) and better than 2012 champ Brad Keselowski (19.2). Expect the young driver to continue gaining in 2023 and potentially compete for a postseason spot.
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23. Aric Almirola
2022 season-high: 11
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: Almirola had a change of heart midseason and announced he'd be back for one more year in 2023 after initially announcing his retirement from full-time racing. He's proven capable of winning in the right spots at times, but the past two seasons stand as his worst with Stewart-Haas Racing. He will look to improve the program over the offseason for one last run.
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22. AJ Allmendinger
2022 season-high: N/A
2022 season-low: N/A
Comment: Despite the ranking outside the top 20, you're looking at a potential dark horse Championship 4 contender right here. You know he's capable of winning the road courses. The only reservation is how he and Kaulig Racing will adapt from racing full-time on Saturdays to Sundays with two cars. That organization continues to trend upward, so it's likely they handle it very well -- not to mention Allmendinger clearly showed what he's made of in his limited Cup time in 2022, even reeling off four-straight top 10s in this year's playoffs.
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21. Chris Buescher
2022 season-high: 18
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: Buescher could absolutely be one to watch next year in Year 2 of the RFK Racing era. His average finish dipped just a bit year over year, but he was overall a very capable driver in '22 and even turned in his first win since 2016 (in the Bristol Night Race of all races).
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20. Brad Keselowski
2022 season-high: 14
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: Keselowski's season was hampered by a hefty penalty early on, but he and his No. 6 RFK Racing team showed a strong level of grit the rest of the way to turn into a legit competitor by season's end. Assuming the team continues to gain ground, Keselowski's talent as a driver is certainly there to take a fast car to Victory Lane and beyond.
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19. Austin Dillon
2022 season-high: 10
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: It went somewhat unnoticed, but -- taking out crashes at Bristol and Martinsville -- Dillon averaged a 12.0 finish from Pocono through the end of the season. For context, Chase Elliott's 12.5 average finish for 2022 was tops among the field. Now add one of two active multi-time champions into the fold as his teammate (Kyle Busch), and Dillon's ceiling suddenly looks much, much higher than many realize.
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18. Bubba Wallace
2022 season-high: 16
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: So the No. 22 won in 2022, and next year is 2023, so ... OK, we're getting ahead of ourselves. There's still plenty more we'd want to see before making a declaration like that, but the pieces are all there for Wallace to break out in a big way in '23 and potentially reel off multiple wins, especially with Tyler Reddick entering the fold and Kurt Busch still available for support.
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17. Erik Jones
2022 season-high: 14
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: Jones, who narrowly missed out on the playoffs while driving for a supposedly rebuilding organization, was already set to be a contender next season -- and then a certain seven-time champ bought into the team as an owner/driver. Not only will this help the team's competition level on the financial front, but Jones could potentially round into a deep-playoffs driver if things fall the right way.
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16. Alex Bowman
2022 season-high: 5
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: It was great to see Bowman return to the car for the finale at Phoenix and avoid an offseason of speculation about his injury status. He looked like a title contender at times in 2022 but will be riding with a new crew chief (Blake Harris) next season. Greg Ives is tough to replace, but you never know if this could be a shot in the arm for the No. 48 team.
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15. Austin Cindric
2022 season-high: 9
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: Cindric kicked off his rookie year better than anybody can really hope for -- by winning the Daytona 500. This gave him an automatic playoff bid, and he made the most of it, nearly squeaking by into the Round of 8. Expect the 2021 Xfinity Series champ to only continue to grow and potentially be Penske's representative in the Championship 4 next year.
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14. Chase Briscoe
2022 season-high: 5
2022 season-low: 20
Comment: Con: Briscoe had exactly one top 10 from Bristol Dirt through the Bristol Night Race.
Pro: He still nearly made the Championship 4 anyway and was within striking distance of the win in the Phoenix finale, even leading 11 laps.
We were, somehow, closer to a Chase Briscoe title than anybody would've guessed, and if SHR is able to qualm its performance woes over the offseason, look out. Championship dark horse is written all over him.
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13. Martin Truex Jr.
2022 season-high: 3
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: Truex's 2022 season was beyond frustrating for him and the No. 19 group, who continued to put fast cars on the race track most weeks and also continued to consistently find new ways to not win races. A lot needs to get ironed out over the offseason, but MTJ is in no way cooked and could easily find his way to a fifth Championship 4 appearance in seven years.
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12. Kevin Harvick
2022 season-high: 5
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: After going winless in 2021 and the first half of 2022, Harvick reeled off back-to-back wins over the summer and appeared to be a title contender all of a sudden right before the playoffs. Well, that didn't quite happen -- he landed 15th in the standings -- and led a career-low 119 laps on the season. That said, who wants to bet against this guy in 2023?
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11. Kyle Busch
2022 season-high: 1
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: Busch's JGR tenure was loud, brash, lucrative and ... ended with a winless whimper after announcing he'd be moving to Richard Childress Racing next year. Rowdy will be hungry in 2023 to show he was worth the asking price, and it would not shock anybody to see him bring another title to the long-running championship organization.
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10. Ryan Blaney
2022 season-high: 1
2022 season-low: 10
Comment: Blaney was behind the wheel of fast No. 12 Fords almost all season and yet wound up winless with fewer top 10s, a worse average finish and a lower place in the standings than in 2021. With an eighth full-time season ahead and a season just completed of treading water, it's fair to start to question if Blaney has plateaued a bit. He still has undeniable championship potential, but he needs to take that next leap forward.
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9. Daniel Suárez
2022 season-high: 7
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: Lost in the (warranted) Ross Chastain hoopla was the fact that his Trackhouse Racing teammate also had by far the best season of his career and also earned his first Cup win in spectacular fashion. No reason to think Trackhouse will take a step backward in 2023, so Suárez could be looking at multiple wins and a deep playoff run.
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8. Tyler Reddick
2022 season-high: 5
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: There's a reason Denny Hamlin was so eager to pilfer Reddick away from RCR before his contract was up there -- and why he worked a deal with the Chevy organization to bring Reddick over a year earlier than planned. Reddick flashed championship potential multiple times in 2022 -- but also stumbled a bit occasionally -- and should only grow more competitive at 23XI.
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7. William Byron
2022 season-high: 1
2022 season-low: 16
Comment: Byron had one of the more interesting seasons, looking dominant early on before completely disappearing the rest of the regular season and then turning it on again in the playoffs. It feels extremely unlikely that a driver with this much talent and resources goes an entire career without winning a title, so it's just a matter of when. The only question -- will it be 2023?
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6. Denny Hamlin
2022 season-high: 1
2022 season-low: 20
Comment: Man, what can you say? Another heartbreaking season, but Hamlin continues to be (arguably) the most interesting driver in NASCAR -- co-owning a team with Michael Jordan while also often dominating behind the wheel of a car for his other longtime organization is certainly quite the combo. There were times in 2022 it looked like this was finally his year, and it's extremely likely we'll see that in 2023 as well ... but the clock's ticking, Denny.
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5. Christopher Bell
2022 season-high: 2
2022 season-low: 20
Comment: Not many saw a Christopher Bell Championship 4 run coming early in the season -- especially the first month -- but you sure can't say he didn't earn it. Bell reminded us of his immense talent in 2022, and that should only grow in 2023. With Busch's departure and Hamlin/Truex on the wrong side of 40, we could be looking at him as the new face of JGR by season's end. He might be already.
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4. Kyle Larson
2022 season-high: 1
2022 season-low: 9
Comment: The Next Gen era's first year wasn't nearly as kind to Larson as the Gen 6's final season, but he still landed three wins and put his car in the Championship 4 on the owners' side. It's possible he could be the title favorite once again by the time we get to Daytona next February.
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3. Ross Chastain
2022 season-high: 1
2022 season-low: Out
Comment: Chastain is here to stay, folks. Perhaps the best story line to come out of the 2022 season was seeing this watermelon farmer shock the field on a weekly basis and turn into a championship-capable driver along the way. And it was only the first year of this team's existence. The limit on Chastain's potential for 2023 does not exist.
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2. Chase Elliott
2022 season-high: 1
2022 season-low: 9
Comment: Elliott came away frustrated after failing to land his second title at Phoenix, and understandably so. A five-win year still offered plenty of celebration, however, and this team only continues to refine itself as the years go on. It's entirely possible we see an absolutely dominant Chase Elliott year in 2023.
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1. Joey Logano
2022 season-high: 1
2022 season-low: 11
Comment: Of course, nobody right now is in a better position to win the 2023 title than this year's champion. The No. 22 team, from driver to crew chief to crew, is the class of the field and just flat-out beat everybody when it counted, and it wasn't particularly close. I said this last year as well, but it's possible Logano -- still just 32 years old -- could have his best days ahead of him. It'll be tough for Logano to accomplish the feat, but it's absolutely possible the seven championships club could grow to four one day.
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