Power Rankings: Will Chase Elliott reclaim road-course crown at COTA?
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
20. Joey Logano (-7)
Season-high: 5
Season-low: 20
Comment: A P22 isn't a catastrophic finish for the No. 22 driver, but the two-time champ is now averaging a 25.0 finish through the season's first five races with just one top 10. We're also now exactly a full season removed from his last win, and he hasn't been victorious in a non-drafting race since his title-clincher in 2022. He's still got championship potential this year, but with a 20.7 average finish through three COTA races, we might not start to see signs of it this weekend either.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
19. Bubba Wallace (-5)
Season-high: 10
Season-low: 19
Comment: Wallace did lead 15 laps and was a top-10 finisher in Stage 2, but faded to a rough P29 and now hasn't seen the top 10 since Atlanta, picking up just 33 points since. Though his teammate is the defending COTA winner, it's been just about the most nightmarish track imaginable for Wallace, who owns an almost inconceivable 38.0 finish through three races there.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
18. Chase Briscoe (+2)
Season-high: 17
Season-low: Out
Comment: Removing a crash-induced 31st-place run at Atlanta, Briscoe's average finish in the other four races is 13.0 -- which would slot in seventh-best in the series. He could keep it rolling this weekend at COTA, where he finished a strong sixth in its 2021 debut.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
17. Kyle Busch (-7)
Season-high: 3
Season-low: 17
Comment: Hey, on the bright side, Busch has led in four of the season's five races, and double digits in three of them. As for the rest of how things are going? Yeesh. Still, there's reason to think a turnaround will happen, and last year's COTA runner-up could surprise on Sunday.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
16. Michael McDowell (+2)
Season-high: 16
Season-low: Out
Comment: McDowell continued his strong run of Next Gen Bristol results and nearly turned in his third top 10 of the season this past weekend. He's been competitive on a weekly basis so far and has hung around in every COTA race. Sunday could be his day.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
15. John Hunter Nemechek (Not ranked last week)
Season-high: 15
Season-low: Out
Comment: There are likely plenty of factors to the No. 42's strong start -- more experience, chip on his shoulder, Legacy shifting to Toyota, etc. -- but they seem to all be going in Nemechek's favor, as he's rekindled his prospect status and has looked quite good so far this year. After picking up just three his entire rookie season in 2020, his return to Cup racing has already netted two top 10s, one of which was nearly a top five in perhaps one of the hardest races ever, as we just witnessed. He has a handful of COTA starts in lower series and was the 2022 Xfinity Series runner-up there, so keep an eye out for him this weekend once again.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
14. Chris Buescher (+1)
Season-high: 11
Season-low: 16
Comment: RFK is clearly building a head of steam right now and have a great shot to be the leaders in the Ford clubhouse in 2024 if it keeps trending this way. Buescher is a strong road racer and netted a top 10 at COTA last year. It wouldn't be a shock at all to see him strike this weekend in Austin.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
13. Daniel Suárez (-1)
Season-high: 12
Season-low: Out
Comment: Suárez's win at Atlanta remains his sole top 10 of the year, but things aren't too bad -- apart from a Daytona crash, he hasn't finished worse than 18th. COTA feels like a spot that should be winnable for him, but it just hasn't materialized at all for No. 99 yet. The Mexico native has finishes of 33rd, 24th and 27th in the three races there.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
12. Alex Bowman (+5)
Season-high: 12
Season-low: 17
Comment: Definitely still looking for more laps out front out of Bowman -- he has just six laps led thus far -- but he certainly has the looks of a playoff contender after missing some projected fields in the preseason. He very well might go out this weekend and punch his ticket outright; he owns a ridiculous 4.3 average finish at COTA through three races there.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
11. Brad Keselowski (+5)
Season-high: 11
Season-low: 17
Comment: It's always nice to be reminded of just how good the 2012 champ is behind the wheel of a race car, 100-plus-race winless streak or not, like we saw in his P3 run at Bristol. Because of this, it'll never not be shocking that he's never won on a road course and it probably won't happen this weekend. No. 6 has a best finish of 19th in three COTA starts.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
10. Tyler Reddick (-2)
Season-high: 8
Season-low: 14
Comment: It's been a bit of a frustrating season for Reddick so far, as he clearly displays speed capable of winning races but is struggling to show much for it on the results sheet. Look no further than the 20.2 average finish -- for the driver ranked ninth in the standings. Obviously, this is the weekend he likely has circled as the defending COTA winner, but he was strong in the first two runnings there as well for an overall 5.0 average finish.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
9. Ross Chastain (-4)
Season-high: 5
Season-low: 14
Comment: Someday Chastain's racing style will play out perfectly at Bristol, but Sunday -- and most of his previous starts there -- was not that day. Sundays in March at COTA do tend to go in his favor, however, and he absolutely should be considered among the favorites to win this weekend, like he did in 2022.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
8. Chase Elliott (+3)
Season-high: 8
Season-low: 17
Comment: It's truly baffling because he's sixth in points, but Bristol was surprisingly Elliott's first top 10 of the season. He's still on pace for his worst average finish since 2019, but the '20 champ looks to be just about fully "back" and the former road-course king may reclaim his crown this weekend at COTA, where he won in '21.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
7. William Byron (-3)
Season-high: 1
Season-low: 7
Comment: Byron finished almost dead last at Bristol, but he and the team deserve some credit for sincerely battling the rest of the way through a difficult race after going down six laps early on. He's shown capable of getting it done on road courses, especially lately, so it's quite possible he adds win No. 2 of the season this weekend at COTA, where he's averaged a 9.3 finish.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
6. Christopher Bell (+1)
Season-high: 4
Season-low: 11
Comment: Sure, Bell did finish the worst of the JGR drivers at Bristol -- which still made for a solid top 10 in which he led 29 laps. Things are going well for No. 20 and he might add a third-career road-course win on Sunday in Austin.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
5. Ryan Blaney (-3)
Season-high: 2
Season-low: 5
Comment: A bit of a missed opportunity for Blaney, who turned in his best starting spot of the season so far (the pole) into his second-worst result (P16) of 2024 and handing over the points lead. He won the pole at COTA in 2022 as well and it resulted in a better sixth-place finish, but it's his only top 10 there so far.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
4. Ty Gibbs (+2)
Season-high: 4
Season-low: 8
Comment: Look very much past his eventual P9; Gibbs looked every bit the part at Bristol as he won both stages, led 137 laps and walked out with the second-most points (48) to rise to third in the standings. The 21-year-old has arrived, folks, and once that first win is out of the way, the conversation will quickly shift to his 2024 championship potential.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
3. Denny Hamlin (+6)
Season-high: 1
Season-low: 9
Comment: We just saw an absolute masterclass of how to manage every aspect of a race car as Hamlin convincingly won at Bristol for the second straight time. No. 11 is at the top of his game -- and there might be no driver with a higher level of combined skill and experience in the field right now -- and it feels like a safe bet he lands his first top 10 at COTA this weekend.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
2. Martin Truex Jr. (+1)
Season-high: 2
Season-low: 10
Comment: That was probably the best Bristol race of Truex Jr.'s lengthy career, and yet it still wasn't enough to land his first win at "The Last Great Colosseum." He'll still take it, though, as his strong start has him P2 in points in what's shaping up to be a nice rebound year for him after a head-scratching playoff run.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
1. Kyle Larson (--)
Season-high: 1
Season-low: 5
Comment: Even when he isn't quite a notable factor in a race (though he did lead 19 laps), Larson still finds a way, as the last driver to finish on the lead lap at Bristol -- in fifth place. The inaugural runner-up at COTA feels like he's destined to win there at some point, so why not this weekend when everything is going so well for him?